Archive for June, 2011
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
More than half of Americans — 53% — say the need for government action this year to halt the flow of illegal immigrants at the borders is “extremely important,” the first time a majority have held this view in the four times Gallup has asked this question since 2006. Another 29% call it “very important” and 12% “moderately important,” while 7% say it is “not that important.”
The new results from a June 9-12 Gallup poll show an 11-point increase since May 2010 in the percentage rating the issue extremely important. This increase is seen about equally among various gender, race, age, and political party groups, as well as by region of the country.
Concern is slightly higher among men than women, among whites than nonwhites, and among older than among younger Americans. However, the biggest difference is seen by party, with 68% of Republicans rating border control extremely important, compared with 42% of Democrats.
And, what about the illegal immigrants who are already in the United States? There is a greater urgency to resolve the problem.
Here is the graph:
Plus, American continue to favor border control and a plan to halt the flow of illegal immigration rather than developing a plan for those illegal immigrants already here.
The graph:
Most Americans favor allowing illegal immigrants who have worked and lived in the United States for years, to apply for citizenship under certain conditions. Or, in other words favor a path to citizenship rather than deportation.
In 2006, former president George W. Bush articulated his support for policies that would allow illegal immigrants already working in this country to apply for citizenship under certain conditions, and 61% of Americans agreed with him at that time. Despite the repeated failure of such bills to make it through Congress, nearly two-thirds of Americans, 64%, continue to support the proposal.
Additionally, 13% would allow illegal immigrants to stay in the U.S. for a limited time in order to work, while 21% favor deportation.
Majorities of Americans across all major subgroups favor creating a path for current illegal immigrants to become citizens, including 56% of Republicans, 62% of independents, and 76% of Democrats. Support is slightly higher in the West (at 70%) than in the South (59%), with support in the East (62%) and Midwest (65%) similar to the national average.
The graph:
So, what are the implications?
Border control garners the majority of the support versus comprehensive immigration reform. The common GOP line on illegal immigration has been border control first. Then when it is working and can be certified by the Governors of border states with Mexico that it is, then and only then start talking about a plan to deal with the millions of illegal immigrants already here.
I think it is also realistic to believe that going into the Presidential election year, there will be little movement on this issue.
Should a Republican President be elected in 2012 or the GOP takes control of the United States Senate, there may be a bill that emerges. But, if not, the issue will linger and the status quo will remain.
Tags: Illegal Immigration, Polling
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The favorability chart of Florida Presidential candidates
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the Republican Presidential nomination in Florida, further cementing his front runner status in the wake of Mike Huckabee’s exit from the race.
Romney is at 27% to 17% for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, 10% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney now has the outright lead in PPP’s most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he’s up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney continues to poll well in Florida and can be continued to be regarded as the front-runner. But Michelle Bachmann has surged. So, has Herman Cain.
With the likelihood that Sarah Palin will NOT run for the Presidency and with Bachmann’s likely good showing in Iowa and South Carolina, Florida may be the momentum state for Bachmann to overtake Mitt Romney. Bachmann has a real chance here in picking up Palin and Cain voters once they are out of the race.
But, Sarah Palin remains the wild card and should she run, she might enable Mitt Romney to split the conservative Tea Party vote and win with all of the rest.
Beyond Romney’s continued strength the big stories here are the rise of Michele Bachmann and the collapse of Newt Gingrich. Bachmann’s 17% standing represents a 10 point gain from PPP’s last Florida poll in late March, when she stood at only 7%. Her strength comes from leading the field with ‘very conservative’ voters at 21%, followed by Palin at 20%, and Romney at 18%.
Romney’s Florida lead is built on a familiar formula. He’s not winning with the far right voters who constitute a plurality of the Republican electorate, but he’s at least staying competitive with them. Meanwhile he’s dominating the field with moderates (a 36-15 lead over Palin) and with voters who identify themselves as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (a 32-15 advantage over Bachmann.)
The entire poll is here.
Tags: Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, President 2012, Sarah Palin
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A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.
Questions abound over what’s next at Capitol
Anticipating Gov. Jerry Brown’s next move on the budget is as beguiling as parsing the mutterings of an oracle on a snowy mountain top.
Does he have any other surprises to spring on Democrats?
Is he any closer to persuading a handful of Republicans to vote for tax extensions?
The developments over the past week were stunning: Brown’s veto, the first in modern California history; then Controller John Chiang’s unprecedented decision to not pay legislators, declaring that the budget the Democratic-controlled Legislature approved was not balanced.
Here are some other questions that beg to be answered as the Capitol tries to sort out what just hit it:
Q What effect will Chiang’s decision to forfeit pay to legislators have on budget negotiations?
A Legislators say they would never vote out of personal interest over principle, but for those who need to make payments on apartments in Sacramento as well as on their district homes, the financial crunch could be an effective motivator to get something done
One could argue that legislators already voted for their financial interests by passing what many said was a get-out-of-town budget to meet the constitutional deadline, so the evidence of self-interested votes is already there.
Q Despite all the gnashing of the teeth over Chiang exceeding his authority in judging whether the budget passed muster, will anyone have the guts to challenge his ruling?
A Someone, undoubtedly, will challenge the ruling. But it’s at the risk of further disenchanting the public, which voted to punish lawmakers if they didn’t pass a budget on time. It would be in the Legislature’s best interest if they took their lumps and arrived quickly at a balanced budget.
Q What if the Legislature approves a budget, Brown signs it, but Chiang rules it is not in balance?
A Then, you might have a real constitutional crisis. But Chiang might as well open up his exploratory committee for the governorship.
Q What’s Brown’s next move?
A First he’s got to find a way to calm the emotions of angry Democrats, who felt betrayed by Brown’s veto and Chiang’s decision to withhold their pay. Brown started the healing process Tuesday by meeting with Democratic caucuses from both houses.
Wednesday, his staff restarted discussions with Democratic legislative staffs on various budget alternatives, including one that would bypass Republicans with another straight majority vote.
Q But wouldn’t that require an all-cuts budget that Democrats are reluctant to do?
A Nobody said this was easy. Brown has to thread the needle so that he avoids any hint of gimmickry while minimizing the damage of finding an additional $9.6 billion to cut (on top of nearly $12 billion already).
Democrats see real fight in California special election
When Republican Craig Huey got into the runoff in California’s 36th district special election, it came as a surprise. An even bigger surprise: it looks like Huey might actually have an outside chance at winning.
Before the May 17 “jungle primary” to replace retired Rep. Jane Harman (D) observers were expecting a race between two liberal Democrats, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen. Instead, Huey came in second to Hahn thanks to low turnout and a fractured Democratic field. Both advanced to a run-off that Hahn seemed almost certain to win.
Yet Democrats appear to be treating this race as a real fight. Hahn’s campaign went hard after a third-party web ad that depicted the Democrat as a stripper. Even after Huey personally denounced the video as racist and sexist, Hahn alleged coordination between him and the outside group that made it.
“We’re fighting hard in that race,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the Post Wednesday. “It’s not as easy a race, as overwhelming a race and Democratic seat as people like to think it is.” In reference to the anti-Hahn ad, Pelosi said, “It’s a contest, and they know that.”
Redistricting forum draws plenty of opinions in Oxnard: Ventura County residents want no part of L.A. Saying that Oxnard and Simi Valley are “like oil and water,” a Ventura-based community organizing group presented alternative political district maps to a statewide commission on Wednesday that would politically sever Simi Valley from the rest of Ventura County in all legislative and congressional districts.
The plan, presented to the Citizens Redistricting Commission at a hearing in Oxnard, was immediately backed by Supervisor John Zaragoza of Oxnard and Thousand Oaks Mayor Andy Fox.
CAUSE, a group that advocates for the interests of low-income and minority residents of the Central Coast, presented detailed maps to make adjustments to draft Assembly district proposals released by the commission earlier this month. The adjustments would keep the populations of each district at the required level.
The proposal — which CAUSE called the “Oxnard-Thousand Oaks unity map” — would resolve complaints that the commission’s draft plans split both cities into parts of two different Assembly districts. It would unite both cities and put them in the same district, which would include Camarillo.
To accomplish that, the alternative would place Simi Valley in Los Angeles County-based Assembly and Senate districts. The commission already has proposed to do that in its congressional district maps.
Christopher Lanier of CAUSE said the revised proposal would properly separate any part of Oxnard from any district that also includes Simi Valley. The two cities, he said, “are like oil and water.”
Thousand Oaks Mayor Fox was less reluctant.
“This process has in some ways pitted communities against communities,” he said. If any part of Ventura County is to be politically excluded, “it makes more sense to put Simi Valley and Moorpark with Santa Clarita.
The commission will accept written testimony on its draft maps through Tuesday. It is scheduled to release revised drafts on July 12, before voting on final plans that must be submitted to the secretary of state by Aug. 15.
California budget cuts slash monitoring of gang parolees
While state prison officials plan to move tens of thousands of inmates to county jails in a highly publicized budget move, they began another money-saving effort last month: removing GPS tracking devices from hundreds of paroled gang members.
Corrections officials had been monitoring about 950 gang members statewide through GPS, but budget cuts are forcing them to cut the number to 400 by July 1, said Oscar Hidalgo, spokesman for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.
“We have to make some difficult choices,” Hidalgo said. “Obviously, during better fiscal times, we would work to increase those numbers once again.”
The reductions, which are saving the state $6 million, include the removal of tracking devices from 40 of the 60 gang members monitored in Sacramento County. The cuts come at a particularly difficult time for local law enforcement agencies, especially the Sacramento Police Department, which is disbanding its gang unit next week.
“We’re not going to have any gang detectives in a week,” Officer Laura Peck said, adding that the 14-member unit is being shifted to other duties because of impending layoffs.
“Hopefully, the community is watching and the community can call us if they see any type of suspicious activity,” she said.
Enjoy your morning!
Tags: California, California Citizens Redisticting Commission, Flap's California Morning Collection, Jerry Brown
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I suppose the “Jury Duty” excuse also caused the cancellation of her Sudan trip with Franklin Graham as well.
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said on Wednesday she was pausing her “One Nation” bus tour to answer the call of jury duty and denied media reports her much-hyped multi-state jaunt had been cut short.
“The next leg of the tour continues when the time comes,” she said in a message posted on Facebook. “In the meantime, no one should jump to conclusions — certainly not the media with their long track record of getting things wrong or just making things up.”
The 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee has hinted she may run for president in 2012, and many have viewed her bus tour as a possible campaign warm-up should Palin ever declare herself a White House candidate.
Palin kicked off her tour over the Memorial Day holiday weekend and visited a number of historic sites along the East Coast.
Responding to a flurry of reports on Wednesday that several stops had been removed from her itinerary, Palin went online to clarify her plans.
“It hasn’t been canceled,” she wrote. “As I said myself at the end of the East Coast leg of the tour, the summer is long, and I’m looking forward to hitting the open road again.
As I said yesterday, Sarah Palin marches to her own timetable and she may or not be back on the bus. It WOULD seem strange to outfit that bus and paint it up and all and then only use it for a few weeks. Here is Sarah Paln’s exact message from Facebook:
Imagine our surprise when reading media reports today that the “One Nation Tour” has been cancelled. Why didn’t anyone tell me? Oh, wait, that’s because it hasn’t been cancelled. (Good ol’ media… you never cease to amaze!)
As I said myself at the end of the east coast leg of the tour, the summer is long, and I’m looking forward to hitting the open road again. The coming weeks are tight because civic duty calls (like most everyone else, even former governors get called up for jury duty) and I look forward to doing my part just like every other Alaskan.
I wouldn’t think it to be such a slow news day that, what with numerous wars and serious economic woes concerning Americans, a bus is driving news stories today. The next leg of the tour continues when the time comes. In the meantime, no one should jump to conclusions – certainly not the media with their long track record of getting things wrong or just making things up.
- Sarah Palin
I don’t think she is going to run for President since she has not really campaigned as such. But, my bet is that she climbs back on the bus sometime this summer and starts dinging President Obama and the Democrats.
Tags: President 2012, Sarah Palin
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Posted by Flap in Day By Day
Day By Day by Chris Muir
Skye is becoming quite the businesswoman now.
Interesting how in life as we mature and accept responsibilities, family and otherwise, we become more interested in the business side of life. And, less supportive of more government regulation in our lives – especially the taxation.
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Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
Chris illizza over at the Washington Post looks at key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012 and gives the data. You know the question in one of the Presidential debates to President Obama will be (like GOP challenger Ronald Reagan asked President Jimmy Carter in 1980): “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Well, with the regards to unemployment the news is not good for President Obama.
And that raw political reality could put President Obama in a difficult spot as he prepares to seek another four years in the White House amid conflicting signs about the relative health of the economy.
The state-by-state unemployment numbers released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the story.
In every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008.
The increases range from the tiny — just a 0.7-point jump in Minnesota and New Hampshire — to the titanic in places like Nevada (up 4.4 points) and Florida (up 3.6).
And, Obama’s only response will be: “You should have seen how bad it would have been.”
I don’t know if this is going to wash in Nevada and Florida.
But, on the other hand of these 14 swing states that Cillizza mentions only 4 have May unemployment above the national average. But, you know that is spin and unemployment generally is worse since President Obama has been in office. President Reagan beat Jimmy Carter on the answer to the “better off” question. He won re-election because while unemployment was high, it was improving.
That “trend line” vote is why the late President Ronald Reagan won a second term overwhelmingly in 1984 despite the fact that the unemployment rate was at 7.3 percent in October of the election year. (It had been at 10.3 percent as recently as March 1983.)
The best way for Obama to counteract the “are you better off” question is to have evidence to point to that things are turning around — that whether or not you believe the country was on the brink of an economic catastrophe you see signs that your financial situation is improving and have reason to hope the future will be brighter.
The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests he’s not there yet.
No, President Obama is not there yet and unless the economy improves very quickly, he will go the way of Jimmy Carter.
Tags: American Economy, Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, President 2012, Ronald Reagan, Unemployment Rate
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