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Archive for June, 2011
Jun
21
2011
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: No Major Shake Up In GOP Field After New Hampshire DebatePosted by Flap in Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin![]() According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Gallup Daily tracking finds no major shake-up in the GOP presidential candidates’ ratings among Republicans nationwide in the two weeks surrounding a New Hampshire debate that featured seven of the candidates. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Michele Bachmann continue to enjoy the best overall positioning by virtue of having higher name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores than their potential rivals. By comparison, Jon Huntsman, who formally announced his candidacy Tuesday, is recognized by 34% of Republicans and enters the race with the third-lowest Positive Intensity Score of any candidate measured. By my read of the graph, it is Romney, Cain, Palin and Bachmann who are in the hunt. The others not so much, especially Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, who announced today. Additionally, Bachmann’s intensity score edged up slightly (from +18 to +22) and Cain’s declined slightly (from +28 to +23). Given the sample sizes of Republicans familiar with each candidate (smaller than those familiar with Gingrich), these changes are not statistically significant; however, if they hold for another week, they would represent real shifts after the debate. Here is a graph of positive intensity scores:
So, what does this all mean? As, I have been saying for a few weeks: Mitt Romney is the clear front-runner with Michele Bachmann in position to make a race of it. Some pundits have been almost praying for Rick Perry or Jon Huntsman to challenge Romney. But, I just do not see it. Romney has been campaigning for President now for over 6 years, has the campaign and personal money to air many ads and while a mainstream candidate will do extremely well in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Nevada. Michele Bachmann of the Tea Party will do well in her native Iowa and conservative South Carolina. Whether she can beat Romney in Florida or on Super Tuesday is unknown. Again, I don’t think Sarah Palin will run and she has made no movement lately to change that opinion. Herman Cain is not well known enough, will compete in Iowa and then go away. So, unless someone else comes in this week it is really a Romney vs. Bachmann race. Romney, Palin, and Bachmann continue to fare best among Republicans nationwide by simultaneously being among the best-known names in the potential presidential field as well as generating positive reactions from those familiar with them. This nexus of recognition and popularity will be essential to each candidate’s success in the primary elections next year.Tags: Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, PollingMichele Bachmann, President 2012, Sarah Palin
Jun
21
2011
House 2012: National Republican Congressional Committee Has Twice as Much Cash as the DemocratsPosted by Flap in Election 2012, National Republican Congressional Commitee, Rahm EmanuelWell, the GOP did retake the House last year (see graphic above) – so, you would expect good fundraising from the special interests.
In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, the National Republican Congressional Committee has twice as much money in the bank as its Democratic counterpart. The Democrats will need to win 24 seats to regain the majority in the House. But, with Rahm Emanuel gone (elected Mayor of Chicago) and moderate Democrats having been largely replaced by Republicans (those recruited by Emanuel) the Democrats will be hard pressed to win back the House in 2012. The money gap will make it even more difficult and unlikely.
Jun
21
2011
President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Upside Down in Gallup Poll 45% Approve Vs 48% DisapprovePosted by Flap in Barack Obama, Polling, President 2012
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
But, these daily polls fluctuate – as you can see. Tomorrow President Obama will announce a tropop withdrawal from Afghanistan and he will most likely receive a poll bounce upward for that. But, the economy remains weak and unemployment high. President Obama remains vulnerable.
Jun
21
2011
Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 21, 2011Posted by Flap in Bud Selig, California, Dianne Feinstein, Flap's California Morning Collection, Frank McCourt, Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Marathon
A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.
The buzz in the Capitol today is that long time Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein is not polling well in the latest California Field Poll. In fact, her numbers are the lowest for her since 1992. If any pundit really thinks DiFi is vulnerable, I will refer them to Carly Fiorina who was the last Republican challenger to a California Democratic U.S. Senator who was deemed vulnerable = recently re-elected Barbara Boxer. DiFi is not going anywhere except back to the Senate, barring any health problems. But, I wonder who the GOP will run in 2012 as the sacrificial lamb? The poll graphic:
In Los Angeles, everyone is talking about the L.A. Dodgers and the owner Frank McCourt. The Commissioner of Major League Baseball who took over control of the team some time ago from McCourt disapproved a new Fox Sports television contract which may precipitate a sale of the team, lawsuits, and/or a bankruptcy filing. Likely, there will be all of the above, but most folks in L.A. want McCourt and his wife to be gone and the Dodgers to concentrate on baseball.
Oh yeah and McCourt owns the Los Angeles Marathon too. I might just have to run in Pasadena next Spring. OK – on to the links: Steinberg raises legal questions over pay issue Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, made it clear that there are legal implications — lawsuit, anyone? — with the decision on legislative pay that state Controller John Chiang is expected to make Tuesday. Why McCourt must go, from one baseball blogger Many kudos on baseball websites today for blogger Larry Behrendt’s detailing of the case against Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, from the interlocking companies that mean the Dodgers now pay rent for their own stadium and parking lots, to the ticket revenue that gets drained elsewhere, to the huge debt and lavish personal spending. Behrendt posted before commissioner Bud Selig stepped in today to nix the deal with Fox. But that’s exactly what Behrendt felt Selig must do….. Is Lynn Woolsey retiring? Is Gavin Newsom interested in that seat? We’re getting the distinct feeling that something is up. Just got an “advisory” that Rep. Lynn Woolsey will hold a press conference at her home Monday in Petaluma “joined by Rep. Barbara Lee and friends and family.” Enjoy your morning!
Jun
21
2011
Video: Bristol Palin Dishes the Dirt on Meghan and Cindy McCainPosted by Flap in Bristol Palin, John Murtha, Meghan McCainMeghan McCain and her obnoxious “beer” heiress mother has it coming. Both of their sanctimonious portrayals of Republican values actually make me sick – almost as much as the flip-flopping of the sometimes conservative Senator John McCain. Now, I can barely tolerate the elder Senator because he has endured a lot for this country, but those two – well, MEH…..
Bristol will be on Good Morning America to promote her book on Monday as she makes the rounds of the book circuit. Somehow I think there will be a response from Cindy and Meghan McCain prior. Or, will Senator McCain urge restraint? Probably not….. Tags: Bristol Palin, Cindy McCain, John McCain, Meghan McCain
Zed, you know better than to aggravate the wife with the mention of age.
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