Archive for June, 2011
These are my links for June 28th from 08:24 to 09:02:
- Simi, Moorpark formally oppose congressional redistricting plan – The cities of Simi Valley and Moorpark on Monday formally urged the California Citizens Redistricting Commission to rethink its proposal to place them in a congressional district that includes parts of Los Angeles County.
The Simi Valley City Council adopted a resolution to that effect. Moorpark Mayor Janice Parvin sent a letter to the commission outlining her opposition.
The Simi council's resolution also urged the commission to modify its proposal to place about 2,000 Simi residents in a different congressional district than the rest of the city.
"To lop us off makes no sense whatsoever," Mayor Bob Huber said at a special meeting of the council he convened Monday morning because of what he said was the urgency of the matter. "It's just so wrong what they're doing. My strong feeling is we keep the whole county together."
Noting the city has previously expressed its opposition to the proposals in letters to the commission, Huber said, "I think we need something a little stronger like an actual resolution that they can see and understand how strong we feel."
- Bachmann is so not ready for presidency, but Pawlenty has the judgment and skills – In early 2012, Iowans in all 99 counties will bundle up, brave the cold night air, and join neighbors and fellow Republicans in casting their vote for the next president of the United States. Being Iowa, many caucus attendees will have personally met some or all of the candidates, will have had a chance to participate in town hall meetings, to ask questions, and to compare backgrounds and experience in this crucial race for the White House.
I, too, have gotten to know some of the candidates. It is safe to say that I am one of just a handful of people who have worked closely with two of the candidates for president.
As the former chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party during the tenure of Gov. Tim Pawlenty, as well as the former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, I have watched both candidates from behind the public scene. I've seen how they handle the pressures of the job; I've seen how they lead a staff; and I've seen how they would govern if elected to the most powerful office in the world.
Having seen the two of them, up close and over a long period of time, it is clear to me that while Tim Pawlenty possesses the judgment, the demeanor, and the readiness to serve as president, Michele Bachmann decidedly does not.
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The long knives are out for Michele Bachmann. But, will it roll off of her back or will the real beneficiary be Mitt Romney?
- President 2012: Michele Bachmann accepts Chris Wallace’s apology – In an interview by Sean Hannity’s last night, Rep. Michele Bachmann said she had gotten a call early last evening from Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace, who apologized for the way he put the “flake” question during Sunday’s interview. She recounted that she was happy to accept the apology and that “we’re moving on.”
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Move along….
Tags: Bachmann, California, Pawlenty, Pinboard Links, Romney
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When the lefty site Daily Kos makes a mention on this race between Craig Huey and Janice Hahn in California Congressional District 36 that something is going on, one has to wonder.
Democrat Janice Hahn has two new “contrast” ads out — spots which start by attacking Craig Huey for his extremism and finish by touting Hahn’s own credentials. Something must really be up in this race, because the second ad (both are available at the link) focuses on Hahn’s “non-partisan” credentials and both shy away from mentioning her party affiliation. If an out-and-proud Democrat is having a hard time winning in this district… just oy.
Well, there has been little buzz about this race lately and no “leaked” internal polling. I suspect this race is close.
Remember this is a July 12th special election and Craig Huey WILL turn out his conservative/Republican voters even though they are badly outnumbered in CA-36.
An upset in the making?
Tags: Craig Huey, Janice Hahn
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A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.
Yesterday afternoon Democratic Governor Jerry Brown and Democratic Legislative leaders announced a new agreement on a majority-vote California state budget. Here are the details:
It maintains parts of the package Brown vetoed nearly two weeks ago:
– $150 million cut each to University of California, California State University
– $150 million cut to state courts
– $200 million in Amazon online tax enforcement
– $2.8 billion in deferrals to K-12 schools and community colleges
– $300 million from $12 per vehicle increase in DMV registration fee
– $50 million from fire fee for rural homeowners
– $1.7 billion from redevelopment agencies
– Higher tax receipts (now worth $1.2 billion from May and June)
The new budget rejects some parts of that package:
– $1.2 billion from selling state buildings
– $900 million from raising a quarter-cent local sales tax
– $1 billion from First 5 commissions
– $500 million cut in local law enforcement grants
– $540 million deferral to University of California
– $700 million in federal funds for Medi-Cal errors
And it adds the following:
– $4 billion in higher projected revenues in 2011-12, with triggered cuts
– 1.06 percentage point sales tax swap that redirects money to local governments for Brown’s “realignment” plan rather than to the state. Sales tax rate will still fall 1 percent on July 1.
The $4 billion “trigger” plan bears some explaining.
First, the plan requires Brown’s Department of Finance director, Ana Matosantos, to certify in January whether the $4 billion projection is accurate. She will use revenue totals for July to December and economic indicators to project the remainder of the fiscal year.
The “trigger” cuts are essentially in three tiers, based on how much of the extra $4 billion comes in.
Tier 0: If the state gets $3 billion to $4 billion of the money, the state will not impose additional cuts and roll over any balance of problem into the 2012-13 budget.
Tier 1: If the state gets $2 billion to $3 billion of the money, the state will impose about $600 million of cuts and roll over the remainder into the 2012-13 budget. The $600 million in cuts include a $100 million cut to UC, a $100 million cut to CSU, a $100 million cut to corrections and a $200 million cut to Health and Human Services.
Tier 2: If the state gets $0 to $2 billion of the money, the state will also impose up to $1.9 billion in cuts, including a $1.5 billion reduction to schools that assumes seven fewer classroom days. It also includes a $250 million elimination of school bus transportation (except for that which is federally mandated). Cuts will be proportionate to how much of the first $2 billion in revenues the state gets. State will also impose the Tier 1 cuts.
Talk about gimmicks. This budget is all smoke and mirrors with assumptions that are not within the realm of possibility.
Look at the Amazon Tax for example. Is there anyone who believes the state will capture $200 million in additional revenue when Amazon et. al. say they will cease their associate businesses in California if the law is signed. Plus, they plan to challenge the legislation in state and federal courts and what will that cost the State of California. So, the Democrats have made a deal that will hopefully get past the Democratic Controller John Chiang in order to restore the Legislators pay. But, in all reality, this budget deal is a sham based on wildly exaggerated revenue assumptions – a rosy scenario at the extreme.
On to today’s links……
Dan Walters: Will Democrats’ rosy-scenario budget work?
When governors and legislators face seemingly big budget deficits, they often turn to gimmicks to balance income and outgo on paper.
The most creative have been what Capitol cynics call “rosy scenarios.”
The politicians conjure up some new source of revenue, swear it is legitimate and then use the projected windfall to close their gap.
Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was an early advocate of rosy scenarios, such as assuming that the state could get as much as $1 billion from new gambling compacts with Indian tribes, or it could seize a half-billion dollars from punitive judgments in lawsuits.
Later, he counted revenues from peddling the state’s workers’ compensation insurance business and state buildings. His rosiest scenario occurred last year, when his initial budget assumed that the federal government would give the state as much as $7 billion in extra cash.
None of those funds materialized, but that doesn’t prevent Capitol politicians from dusting off another rosy scenario.
Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic legislators, whose hopes of winning Republican support for tax extensions vanished, ginned up a new budget Monday, just days before the 2011-12 fiscal year is to begin.
Brown vetoed one Democratic budget, saying it was so gimmicky that Wall Street bankers would not give the state billions of dollars in short-term operating loans. And Controller John Chiang followed that by decreeing that since a balanced budget wasn’t enacted by the constitutional deadline of June 15, he’d cut off legislators’ salaries and expense payments as a new state law requires.
Brown and Democrats went back to the budgetary drawing board, and a new rosy scenario emerged – that above-expectation tax revenue this year means the state will collect an extra $4 billion during the fiscal year.
Brown ditches special election, plans more cuts
Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday abandoned his plan to hold a special election this year on whether to renew expiring tax hikes and instead said he will balance California’s budget with a combination of spending cuts and a projected increase in normal tax revenue.
Brown announced the latest approach at a news conference during which he was accompanied by the leaders of the state Assembly and Senate, both fellow Democrats. They agreed to pursue a budget for the coming fiscal year without support from Republicans, who had refused to accept an extension of expiring temporary tax increases, which had been the centerpiece of the Democratic approach.
Brown had hoped to extend a series of tax increases that are expiring this week, but he needed two Republican votes in each house to bring the proposal before voters.
After six months of talks with a handful of GOP lawmakers, Brown said he finally gave up on the idea Sunday night after receiving a text message from one of the lawmakers.
“We had some very serious discussions. I thought we were getting close, but as I look back on it, there is an almost religious reluctance (among Republican lawmakers) to ever deal with the state budget in a way that requires new revenues,” Brown told reporters during a brief news conference.
Instead, the Democratic leaders said they would pursue a ballot initiative to bring tax increases before voters in November 2012.
Congressional Republicans launch TV spot against Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in midst of redistricting
In some early fallout from the political upheaval expected under proposed new districts for California lawmakers, the campaign arm for House Republicans said it would begin airing a TV ad slamming Rep. Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara) over her position on Medicare.
“Congress is debating big changes for Medicare, and Congresswoman Lois Capps voted for the most extreme plan. Capps voted for the plan the media says would ‘decimate Medicare,’” the narrator says in the spot that the National Republican Congressional Committee said would begin airing Tuesday.
Republicans see Capps as among the most vulnerable of the Democrats under the redistricting. Her district, derided as the “ribbon of shame” for its blatant gerrymandering, forms a narrow, 200-mile coastline band that runs from Oxnard to the Monterey County line. Under the first round of proposed new maps, her district would shift considerably and become less Democratic than currently.
Enjoy your morning!
Tags: Amazon Tax, California, California Budget, Jerry Brown, Lois Capps
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
After surging in May, Americans’ economic confidence receded in early June and remains near its 2011 low, averaging -33 in the week ending June 26. This is down seven percentage points from the week ending May 29 and down a similar amount compared with the same week a year ago.
U.S. economic confidence peaked this year at -18 in February and then generally declined, reaching -39 during week ending April 24, as gas prices surged and economic activity slowed. Confidence increased in May, averaging -26, likely in response to the news of Osama bin Laden’s death in a U.S. military raid.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index combines two measures: one assessing Americans’ views about whether the U.S. economy is “getting better” or “getting worse,” and the second involving Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions as “excellent,” “good,” “only fair,” or “poor.” Both ratings have deteriorated thus far in June.
Only 31% say that the U.S. economy is getting better.
The graph:
45 % of Americans rate the American economy is poor:
So, what does this all mean?
Perception of the economy is important to voters. If President Obama and his cronies in the Congress wish to be re-elected they will have to make the case that their stewardship of the economy has been successful. Poll numbers are not demonstrating this perception.
The worsening of Gallup’s economic confidence measure during June may be due in part to the dissipation of the “halo effect” surrounding the death of bin Laden. Confidence has now moved back near the April 2011 low. This suggests that the consumer benefits associated with steadily declining gas prices at the pump — down 14 cents per gallon in the past two weeks — are being offset by other factors. One such factor might just be that gas prices remain 82 cents per gallon higher than they were a year ago. Another could be the continuing dismal jobs situation.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke last week seemed to add to the growing economic pessimism, noting that the Fed has reduced its 2011 growth forecast for the U.S. economy. Wall Street continues to suffer as a result of the Fed’s apparent confirmation of the economic “soft patch” and the financial problems in Europe. The battle over raising the debt ceiling has not disrupted the money markets to this point, but certainly represents another negative for overall economic confidence.
It may be that declining gas prices will eventually lead to improved consumer confidence and increased consumer spending, which could make the current economic soft patch modest and transitory. At this point, however, Gallup’s monitoring of economic confidence does not support that idea.
Tags: American Economy, Polling
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
The MSM is blind to what Attorney General Eric Holder and the President do. It is all about social justice and appeasing their voter constituencies with them. But, the GOP nominee will NOT be a John McCain this time and will take it to them – MSM notwithstanding.
This is 2011, not 2008 when the LEFT blogs drove stories to their friends at the New York Times and the television networks.
I am looking forward to Andrew Bretibart, Matt Drudge and the fireworks – even after the 4th of July.
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The Day By Day Archive Tags: Barck Obama, Day By Day, Eric Holder
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