• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 7th on 15:02

    These are my links for July 7th from 15:02 to 19:43:

  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval Level Falls to 2010 Midterm Election Levels

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April.

    The president’s approval rating rose in May after the May 1 announcement that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. It has since subsided about equally among all major demographic subgroups, reverting nearly to April’s level.

    Obama’s strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here).

    Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%), and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of Obama

    Here is the demographic breakdown chart.

    So, what does this mean?

    President Obama remains vulnerable to a challenge in 2012 for re=election and without the economy, plus unemployment improving soon his prospect will likely remain the same. His re-election will depend upon playing racial constituency politics which is a dangerous game. Pandering to one racial group such as Hispanics may anger another group who will then make sure they vote against you.

    Public approval of how Obama is doing his job has been fairly steady in 2011, except for a temporary uptick after bin Laden’s death. Furthermore, his average 47% approval rating in the first half of 2011 is identical to his average rating for all of 2010. The finding that the slide in his approval between 2009 and 2010 has since stalled could be viewed as a positive for Obama, particularly given ongoing challenges with the economy. On the other hand, his sub-50% approval rating may have contributed to the Democrats’ losses in the 2010 midterm elections and would be less than ideal for Obama to maintain a year from now as he faces re-election.

    Real improvement in the U.S. economy, including lower unemployment, would go a long way toward restoring approval to 2009 levels. Short of that, rebuilding approval among Hispanics, down 18 points since 2009, could be an important element of Obama’s re-election strategy; however, he would need to do this while not further impairing his already tepid support among whites.

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: Craig Huey Says Anti-Janice Hahn Video Hurt His Campaign

    Yes, having known Craig Huey for over 45 years this is definitely not him. Huey is not a name caller or a sensationalist, despite what the Democrats try to spin.

    Southern California congressional candidate Craig Huey said Thursday an inflammatory viral web video that portrayed Janice Hahn as a stripper has been “harmful” to his campaign and pledged to fire any member of his staff who had knowledge of it.

    The issue was raised during a debate on public radio between Huey and Hahn, just five days ahead of the special election to replace former Rep. Jane Harman.

    “It’s racist, it’s sexist, it’s bigoted. It’s the most harmful thing to my campaign ever done,” Huey said when asked about the video produced by the third-party group Turn Right USA.

    The GOP candidate denied any involvement with the video and said he would terminate any member of his staff who was found to be coordinating with the outside group.

    Just as dispicable was Joe Trippi’s last minute attack using Huey’s marketing clients as guilt by association.

    Huey called a Hahn charge that that he bilked seniors with a marketing scheme “guilt by association,” and snuck in a not-very-subtle gang reference. “It’s like a dentist had a gang member come in … and all of a sudden that dentist is part of a drug cartel,” he said.

    But, hey, that is politics where half-truths and embellishments are all too common. But, the difference is Huey had no control over the anti-Hahn ad and Joe Trippi works for the Hahn campaign.

    South Bay residents will vote their pocketbook anyway and ignore all of this noise.

    Will Craig Huey pull an upset?

    I say look for an earthquake in CA-36 next Tuesday night.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 7th on 06:02

    These are my links for July 7th from 06:02 to 13:49:

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 44%

    According to the lastest PPP Poll.

    Obama’s New Hampshire approval rating is 46%, with 49% disapproving of him. When PPP last looked at the state in April voters were split right down the middle on him at 46% approval and disapproval. His decline since then has come with independents. Where previously he was on narrowly positive ground with them at 46/43, now they split against him 39/53. As is the case most everywhere Democrats (83%) are nearly unanimous in their approval of him while Republicans (85%) are just as unified in their disapproval.

    Obama trails Romney 46-44, largely because of a 46-35 deficit with independents. New Hampshire is emblematic of how much more electable Romney is looking than the rest of the GOP field right now- Obama leads all the other Republicans by pretty healthy margins. He has a 7 point lead over both Michele Bachmann (49-42) and Tim Pawlenty (48-41), as well as a 10 point advantage on Herman Cain at 49-39 and a 15 point one over Sarah Palin (53-38).

    Remember President Obama beat John McCain by 10 points in 2008, but is in deep trouble for the 2012 race. New Hampshire is a key battleground state that the GOP needs to win in order to beat Obama in the Electoral College.

    Romney’s New Hampshire performance will either be parlayed to the nomination (as the most electable Republican vs. Obama) or sink as the GOP nomination race moves south. But, for now, if Romney is the nominee, the GOP will capture one state and four EC votes they lost just four years ago.

  • Amazon Tax,  Internet Sales Taxes

    California Affiliate Businesses Hurt By Internet Sales Tax Law

    As you know, I was fired by Amazon.com as a sales affiliate because of the recently passed and enacted California internet sales tax legislation. But, others are feeling the pain even more acutely.

    For several years now, the military museum in Old Sacramento has quietly earned a nice little income by acting as a sales rep for Amazon.com.

    But this small nonprofit, along with thousands of other California organizations and businesses, has been caught in an epic standoff between Amazon and state officials.

    The state enacted a law last week requiring Amazon and other Internet retailers to begin collecting sales tax from California purchasers. Amazon says the law is unconstitutional and it won’t collect the tax.

    While legal experts expect Amazon to sue the state, the online giant already is taking action of a different sort. Hoping to exempt itself from the law, Amazon has fired its 10,000 California affiliates, cutting off their commissions. Scores of other e-commerce companies affected by the law, including Overstock.com and a slew of smaller firms, have done the same.

    Their decisions won’t prevent Californians from buying from Amazon and other online retailers.

    But they will affect organizations like the California State Military Museum, which earned about $2,000 a year as an Amazon affiliate.

    “That was our book-buying budget,” said Dan Sebby, the museum’s director.

    A Camarillo trade group, the Performance Marketing Association, says 25,000 California businesses, individuals and nonprofits make commissions as affiliates for online retailers. They place links on their websites to the retailers, and earn commissions when visitors “click through” to make a purchase.

    For many, it’s a sidelight. For others, it’s their livelihood. Rebecca Madigan, the trade group’s executive director and a critic of the new law, said the California affiliates will lose 25 percent of their Internet income as a result of the controversy.

    “Hundreds and hundreds of retailers have terminated their affiliations,” she said.

    California isn’t the first state to feud with Amazon. The Seattle retailer dumped affiliates in several other states, including Connecticut and Arkansas, that imposed an Internet sales tax. It has also rewarded states that remain tax free.

    Citing a business-friendly climate, Amazon announced Wednesday it’s building a major distribution facility in Indiana. At the same time, it’s continuing a lengthy court fight over a New York law that imposes the tax requirement.

    So, what will happen is the large sales affiliates will leave California, move to states that are not forcing Amazon.com et. al. to collect the tax and the State of California will attempt to force collection in October. Amazon and the others will simply sue.

    There will be NO new tax revenue for California because of internet sales taxes and, in fact, will lose income, sales taxes, property taxes, etc. from those who will move.

    Not a winner here for the California state budget and certainly not for California taxpayers.

  • Barack Obama,  Day By Day,  Democrats

    Day By Day July 7, 2011 – What is it Good For?



    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, we have seen it time and again with the Obama Administration and the Democrats in Congress and the States. If there is a law that they do not wish enforced (like the DOMA) or a law where they are on a losing end of an issue (Wisconsin collective bargaining) they ignore the democratic process and exert their will anyway – sometimes by subverting their oaths and fleeig their own states.

    What kind of elected government is that?

    Sounds like an authoritarian government to me.

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    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-07-07

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