President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval Level Falls to 2010 Midterm Election Levels

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April.

The president’s approval rating rose in May after the May 1 announcement that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. It has since subsided about equally among all major demographic subgroups, reverting nearly to April’s level.

Obama’s strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here).

Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%), and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of Obama

Here is the demographic breakdown chart.

So, what does this mean?

President Obama remains vulnerable to a challenge in 2012 for re=election and without the economy, plus unemployment improving soon his prospect will likely remain the same. His re-election will depend upon playing racial constituency politics which is a dangerous game. Pandering to one racial group such as Hispanics may anger another group who will then make sure they vote against you.

Public approval of how Obama is doing his job has been fairly steady in 2011, except for a temporary uptick after bin Laden’s death. Furthermore, his average 47% approval rating in the first half of 2011 is identical to his average rating for all of 2010. The finding that the slide in his approval between 2009 and 2010 has since stalled could be viewed as a positive for Obama, particularly given ongoing challenges with the economy. On the other hand, his sub-50% approval rating may have contributed to the Democrats’ losses in the 2010 midterm elections and would be less than ideal for Obama to maintain a year from now as he faces re-election.

Real improvement in the U.S. economy, including lower unemployment, would go a long way toward restoring approval to 2009 levels. Short of that, rebuilding approval among Hispanics, down 18 points since 2009, could be an important element of Obama’s re-election strategy; however, he would need to do this while not further impairing his already tepid support among whites.