• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 16:36

    These are my links for July 13th from 16:36 to 17:01:

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 16:06

    These are my links for July 13th from 16:06 to 16:22:

    • Coburn may return to Senate’s ‘Gang of 6’ – Sen. Tom Coburn said Wednesday that he may rejoin the so-called Gang of Six, the bipartisan band of senators seeking to reach agreement on a big deficit-cutting deal that would blend spending cuts with a tax code overhaul.
      The Oklahoma Republican dropped out of the group two months ago saying Democrats weren't willing to cut enough spending from programs like Medicare. He says he may rejoin the group depending on how it responds to ideas he's sent over. The closely watched group has been working for months in hopes of a bipartisan deficit-cutting deal that might gain momentum despite the partisanship consuming Capitol Hill.
      Asked about rumors he's thinking of rejoining the group, Coburn said: "They're not rumors." But he said he doesn't know whether he will in fact return and that it would depend on how the group reacts to some ideas he's sent over.
      "We'll see" about rejoining the group, Coburn said. "I floated a couple of things. Let's see how they're responded to."
    • How are those debt talks going? – Badly – There are, I think, three likely outcomes. One is that Obama blinks on taxes, as he did in last year’s lame duck session. I rate the chances of that happening as slim. The second is that we hit “default” and everyone scrambles for a few days to, yes, get the Social Security checks out. Everyone is shaken and there is that “grand compromise.” I put the likelihood of that at close to zero. And finally, there is some other variation (McConnell’s or another backup plan) that avoids a default and does not force Republicans to vote for tax hikes. That seems the most likely for now.

      The real solution is for the voters to participate in a great referendum. More government and tax hikes or less government and no tax hikes? That’s what the 2012 election will be about.

      ======

      The GOP House should pass a 3 or 6 month all cuts budget deal raising the debt ceiling and force the Senate to filibuster or Obama to veto it.

    • Amazon Tax Referendum Filed – With the state budget not yet two weeks old, the first of what could be multiple challenges to its underpinning policies has been issued: a petition for the voters to overturn the new law requiring sales tax collection from online purchases.
      A formal request for a referendum on ABx 28 was filed with the office of Attorney General Kamala Harris on Friday afternoon by lobbyist Charles Halnan.

      Halnan lobbies for, among other companies, Amazon.

      The state constitution requires backers of a referendum to gather, within 90 days, voter signatures equaling five percent of the total vote in the most recent gubernatorial election. That looks to be about 504,000 signatures once the petition is cleared by the AG.

      Of course, one question raised during last year's debate over Proposition 25 was whether a budget-related bill like this one is eligible for a referendum. Before Prop 25, budget-related bills were generally seen as not eligible, given that they were approved by a supermajority and given that they took effect immediately. For those who would construe that to be synonymous with an "urgency" statute, the constitution would seem to say it's not eligible. But others will no doubt say that these aren't synonymous. A clarification by the courts may be needed on this one.

    • New GOP honcho Carly Fiorina is "focused on 2012,” but on future run for office? "Never say never" – Among the topics she addressed in conversation with the Chronicle:

      *On Republicans' shot at taking back control of the Senate:"It's a very achievable goal. It's one we have to work hard towards. The Democrats have more seats to defend than we do..and many of the seats in 2012 cycle are in states Barack Obama lost." While Republicans "have challenges,'' Democrats have more challenges, she said.

      *On the GOP anti-tax agenda, in California and nationally: "I think Republicans are on very solid ground to say that tax increases are bad for job creation. Everyone agreed with that just six months ago. President Obama was against raising taxes; the Democrats were…Bill Clinton has said the corporate tax rate was too high.'' The bottom line: "You can't raise taxes in the middle of an economic recession….there are only two things you can do during a budget crisis — cut spending, and grow the economy."

      *On raising the debt ceiling: "It's important that the U.S. government not default on its obligation. It's equally important that we put in place a set of longterm solutions that restore accountability and fiscal responsibility in Washington and that create the environment where businesses can grow."

      *On the "stark" differences between the messages of the two parties: "The Republican agenda is fundamentally different from the Democratic agenda…first, Republicans want to decentralize power, Democrats want to centralize it and they want to centralize it in Washington. Republicans generally will put their faith in the individual; Democrats will put it in an institution. Republicans will favor job creators and Democrats will favor government agencies."

      *On her own future in politics: "I'm focused on 2012 and helping other people win….(but) never say never….I've said from the moment that (my) campaign finished, I enjoyed every minute of it. I don't have a bad taste in my mouth. I had a wonderful experience, and I'm proud of the campaign we ran."

  • American Debt Linit,  American Economy,  Polling

    Poll Watch: Americans Prefer Spending Cuts But Are Open to Tax Increases

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Americans’ preferences for deficit reduction clearly favor spending cuts to tax increases, but most Americans favor a mix of the two approaches. Twenty percent favor an approach that relies only on spending cuts and 4% favor an approach that uses tax increases alone.

    These results are based on a July 7-10 Gallup poll, conducted as government leaders from both parties continued negotiating an agreement to raise the federal debt limit. Both Republicans and Democrats appear willing to raise the debt limit, provided the government outlines plans to significantly reduce federal deficits in the future. The parties generally agree on making deep spending cuts, but do not agree on whether tax increases should be included to help reach their target goals for deficit reduction. Many Republicans in Congress oppose any such tax increases; thus, the legislation may not pass if tax hikes are included.

    Americans do not necessarily share this view, with 20% saying deficit reduction should come only through spending cuts. That percentage is a little higher, 26%, among those who identify as Republicans. Republicans do, however, tilt heavily in favor of reducing the deficit primarily if not exclusively with spending cuts (67%) as opposed to tax increases (3%). Fifty-one percent of independents share that preference. Democrats are most inclined to want equal amounts of spending cuts and tax increases (42%), though more favor a tilt toward spending cuts (33%) than tax increases (20%).

    So, what does this all mean?

    There is political cover for Republicans to accept some tax increases or tax reform in return for receiving massive concessions from Congressional Democrats and President Obama on government spending.

    But, whether Republicans will accept ANY tax increases and then vote to increase the debt ceiling is doubtful.

    The best approach may be for the GOP House to vote for a three or six month debt ceiling extension without tax increases (all cuts) and dare Democrats in the Senate to filibuster it or President Obama to exercise his veto.

    Then, there is the gang of six.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 14:50

    These are my links for July 13th from 14:50 to 14:52:

    • Another possible contingency plan in the debt limit fight – Having blasted the Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's "last resort" proposal, I thought I'd offer an alternative contingency plan. The way I see it, members of Congress have an obligation to raise the debt ceiling to accommodate future deficit spending that they already voted for, but nothing beyond that. That would mean, since Congress already approved a 2011 budget that includes deficit spending as part of the  deal to avert a government shut down, they should pass a clean debt limit increase that would take us through the end of the fiscal year, on Sept. 30. If and when Republicans eventually reach a deal on the fiscal 2012 budget, they should then vote to increase the debt limit by the amount of deficit spending that the Congressional Budget Office projects for that year.

      Admittedly, there are a number of obstacles to this plan. The most obvious being that it isn't clear if there would be enough votes in Congress, and President Obama has publicly ruled out any short-term deals. Yet as things stand, the McConnell approach has been deemed "dead on arrival" in the House. So if we're talking about "last resort" contingency plans, it's hard to see why this approach would be any less plausible.

      If Republicans favor this plan and it encounters opposition from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Obama, that would do several things. It could make Obama start to look intransigent and it would be another opportunity to highlight the fact that the Democratic Senate hasn't even formally released a 2012 budget while the Republican House has done its job and passed one. If there's no agreement about 2012 deficit levels and we don't even have details on Democrats' opening bid, why should Republicans agree to increase the debt limit past the end of this fiscal year? Compared to the McConnell plan, which hinges on arcane Congressional procedure to disguise the fact that Republicans would effectively be voting for a debt limit increase, this would have the advantage of being a clear, transparent, stance that's easy to explain to voters.

    • Home ownership declines in California – The last decade saw a major housing boom, followed by a cataclysmic bust, and the net result was a declining rate of home ownership in California, according to a new analysis of 2010 census data by University of Southern California demographer Dowell Myers.

      Beyond the raw numbers, says Myers, the census data revealed a generational and ethnic transfer between an aging white population and a relatively young Latino population. During the last decade, white home ownership dropped by 157,877 units while Latino-owned homes increased by 383,778 with the latter group accounting for more than three-quarters of ownership growth in the state.

      The overall increase in owner-occupied homes, just under a half-million during the decade, was less than half the numerical increase in the 1980s and the state's overall home ownership rate, 55.9 percent, is one percentage point lower than it was in 2000 and the second lowest rate in the nation, just ahead of New York.

      Within California, home ownership rates vary widely from a low of 35.8 percent in densely populated San Francisco to well over 70 percent in foothill and mountain counties.

      The slowing incidence of home ownership, Myers noted, lessens upward pressure on home prices in the supply-demand equation.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: Obama and Romney Tied at 45%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Barack Obama’s annual summer polling swoon has come to North Carolina. For the first time since February more voters disapprove than approve of him in the state, and for the first time since November he faces majority disapproval. His approval rating this month is down to 45%, with 51% of voters unhappy with him.

    A sharp turn against him with independent voters is what’s causing Obama problems in the state. Last month they narrowly gave him good marks by a 47/46 margin but now only 36% are happy with him while 62% disapprove. Obama’s approval with Democrats is 77%, generally on par with what it’s been over the course of his time in office. And even though receiving only 5% approval from Republicans is pretty bad for Obama it’s also nothing new- he’s had little crossover popularity with GOP voters since the day he took office.

    Obama’s declining popularity also means he’s not doing as well in head to head match ups against possible Republican opponents for next year. He is now tied with Mitt Romney at 45%. Although the margins were usually small he had led Romney all eight previous times PPP polled a match up between the two of them in the state. The key here is again those independent voters- they give Romney a 17 point advantage at 50-33.

    North Carolina is a key battleground state and like Florida is a state with a goodly number of Electoral College votes. And, like Florida where Mitt Romney has been leading Obama in the polls, North Carolina is in range for a GOP pick up.

    Each poll of the key battleground states for the GOP, Mitt Romney is either leading or within striking distance.

    Not a good sign for the incumbent President.

    The entire poll is here.

    This is the third key swing state in the last week, along with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where we’ve found Obama with under water approval numbers and struggling in head to heads with Romney. Obama’s poll numbers have seemed to go bad every summer since he went to the heart of the American spotlight and they usually see some recovery- he’ll have to hope that will be the case again this time around.

    electoral college President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 42%

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 11:56

    These are my links for July 13th from 11:56 to 12:15:

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  Elton Gallegly,  Jeff Gorell,  Tony Strickland

    California Citizen’s Redistricting Committee Latest Draft Visualization for Ventura County Includes Moorpark But Excludes Simi Valley?


    Visualization from Redistricting Partners

    Apparently so.

    Not a good series of maps
    for long term GOP Representative Elton Gallegly since it appears his home in Simi Valley is outside the district.

    The earlier first draft Congressional map had Simi Valley and Moorpark outside the district. It looks like the California Citizen’s Committee has decided on a compromise with allowing Moorpark in and placing Simi Valley into a primarily Los Angeles County District.

    Here is the Demographic breakdown of the new Ventura County Congressional District:

    The newly drawn Congressional District is not the final one and the Commission has until August to draw final maps. There will be likely challenges after the Commission finishes its work. But, for now, Representative Gallegly would either have to move a few miles to Moorpark or Thousand Oaks or retire. He could off course, stay where he is and run in the new West San Fernando Valley/Santa Clarita Valley District which is now represented by long time GOP Rep. Buck McKeon.

    Should Gallegly retire, two incumbent GOP POLS would reside in the district: California State Senator Tony Strickland and California Assemblyman Jeff Gorell.

    This is, of course, what will happen if the map is not redrawn again in its final adoption by the Commission.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann 29% Romney 16% Pawlenty 8% Cain 8%

    According to the latest Magellan Strategies Poll.

    Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 1,024 likely 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus attendees.  The survey finds Michele Bachmann in the lead with 29% support.  Her nearest challenger is Mitt Romney with 16%, followed by Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain with 8%.  Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich have 5% support, Rick Santorum has 3%, the generic “some other candidate” has 2% and 24% of respondents are undecided. 

     Michele Bachmann has broad support across all voting subgroups, with particular strength among men and social conservatives.  Among the 44% of respondents that identified themselves as a member of the Tea Party movement, Michele Bachmann leads by 33 points.

    Yes, it looks like Michele Bachmann is on her way to a win in Iowa, but Sarah Palin and Rick Perry remain wild cards in this race.

    Looks like Romney was wise not to waste any money in Iowa and concentrate in New Hampshire and Nevada.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 11:02

    These are my links for July 13th from 11:02 to 11:24:

    • Mandatory E-Verify Will Devastate California Agriculture group claims? – Uh No… – A new report released today from America’s Voice highlights the fact that mandatory E-Verify legislation being pushed by a number of California Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives would impose new burdens on American workers and businesses, devastate California’s agriculture industry, and further their Party’s political problem with Latino voters.

      According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, “What is it about the California GOP that they would gladly burden small businesses with new costs and regulations, cripple their home state’s agriculture industry, tie up job seekers in mountains of red tape, and remove billions of dollars in revenue from the federal tax coffers – all for a forced E-Verify program that doesn’t even work half the time?  One would assume the answer is politics.  But in this case, the politics of this issue are working against the California Republicans, as bill co-sponsors like Brian Bilbray (R-CA), Elton Gallegly (R-CA), and Dan Lungren (R-CA) are threatening their own political careers while ensuring that the California Republican Party continues to have problems with Latino voters.”

      Among the key report findings:

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      Read all of the rest of the foolishness……

      E-Verify will start to eliminate the jobs magnet of illegal immigration.

      It won't pass the Senate this year because the Democrats are dependent upon the Hispanic vote to win elections, especially Obama's re-election in 2012.

      But, it will force California big business agriculture to hire legal workers or to mechanize their fields instead of dumping the social costs of illegal immigration on taxpayers.

      The report is laughable as if this far left immigration group cares about the California GOP and GOP Congressman who will probably retire in the near future anyway.

    • ‘Amazon tax’ deserves a ‘no’ vote – State Controller John Chiang reported Monday that California received $351 million less in May and June than politicians allowed for in the budget signed two weeks ago. No wonder legislators scramble to wrench cash from out-of-state companies.
      News reports say Amazon also is likely to fight the California tax in court as unconstitutional, but a ballot measure works more quickly. As soon as the referendum is approved for the ballot, it will suspend the online tax, pending the vote.
      Amazon and other out-of-state online retailers canceled contracts with thousands of California-based affiliates when the law went into effect June 29. "Each termination represents lost jobs and lost income for California – losses that could have been easily avoided had the governor and Legislature exercised a little common sense," said George Runner, a member of the tax-collecting agency the Board of Equalization. "Clearly, the 'Amazon tax' is not working."
      The Amazon tax must go. Legislators also should consider the economy-boosting benefits of abolishing all sales taxes, which would give consumers nearly 10-percent discounts across the board and stimulate commerce. Then, legislators should scale back state spending accordingly. More unjust taxes are not the answer to California's economic woes, or to the state's budgetary problems.

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      Read it all

      Absolutely correct….