• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 14th on 14:02

    These are my links for July 14th from 14:02 to 16:32:

    • Rudy Giuliani: Washington has on its poker face – Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said he expects the power players in Washington to wait until the final hours of negotiations to strike a deal on the debt ceiling.
      "That's a good strategy for both sides," Giuliani told reporters Thursday at an event hosted by the Seacoast Republican Women in Hampton, N.H. "That's what a good poker player does."

      The White House and Congress are battling over a deficit-reduction plan to keep the government from defaulting on its loans by Aug. 2.
      While Giuliani encouraged Republicans to be flexible on spending cuts, he said tax increases should be out of the picture, calling the idea "a massive disaster for this economy."
      The former mayor is traveling through New Hampshire this week as he contemplates a run for the White House-a decision he said he'll have by the end of summer, though he didn't specify a date.
      Giuliani also took the opportunity to blast Obama on the economy, saying the president's policies are to blame for the lagging recovery.
      "How much worse can the president be in dealing with our economy? There's been no president, including President Jimmy Carter, who's done worse handling the economy," Giuliani said.
      Among other decisions, the former mayor especially faulted the 2009 stimulus package as a major mistake by Obama's administration. When asked if he would have accepted stimulus money as mayor of New York, Giuliani said he would have "absolutely" rejected the funds.
      "And if I were in Congress I would have voted against it," Giuliani said. "And if I was the president, I would have never even thought of it."

    • Flap’s Links and Comments for July 14th on 12:29 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for July 14th on 12:29 #tcot #catcot
  • Barack Obama,  GOP,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Generic Republican 47% Vs. Obama 39%



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the “Republican Party’s candidate for president” than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%. Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama’s re-election prospects.

    The latest results are based on a July 7-10 poll, and show that the Republican has an edge for the second consecutive month. Obama held a slight edge in May, when his approval rating increased after the death of Osama bin Laden. As his rating has come back down during the last two months, so has his standing on the presidential “generic ballot.”

    Gallup typically uses this question format when a president is seeking re-election but his likely opponent is unknown, as was the case in 1991-1992 and 2003-2004, when incumbents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, were seeking re-election.

    The elder Bush held large leads over his generic Democratic opponent throughout 1991, but early 1992 preferences were more evenly divided and Bush eventually lost his re-election bid. The younger Bush also consistently maintained at least a small advantage over the Democrat throughout 2003, before winning re-election in a close contest in November 2004.

    More bad news for President Obama’s re-election prospects. Now, if the GOP can only agree who is generic enough to beat the President.

    Most importantly is that Obama is trailing among independent voters by 10 points.

    So, what does this all mean?

    President Obama’s re-election prospects do not look very favorable at this point — if the election were held today, as measured by the generic presidential ballot. However, that result does not necessarily mean he is likely to be denied a second term in November 2012. At this point in 1991, George H.W. Bush looked like a sure bet to win a second term, but he was defeated.

    One key factor in determining Obama’s eventual electoral fate is whom the Republican Party nominates as its presidential candidate and the appeal that person has compared with Obama. Mitt Romney is the presumptive front-runner, but Americans have generally not held very positive opinions of him the last few years.

    The state of the nation will also influence whether Obama is elected to a second term. Right now, Americans are especially dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country, and economic confidence is lagging.

    However, the political environment can certainly change in the 16 months leading up to the election, something that occurred during the 1984 and 1996 election cycles (in the incumbent’s favor) and 1992 cycle (in the opponent’s favor) when incumbent presidents were seeking re-election.

    If the American economy does not turn around, it is my firm belief that Obama will be a one term President.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 14th on 12:29

    These are my links for July 14th from 12:29 to 13:05:

    • Althouse: Obama lied about a central fact about his own life which he used — powerfully — to push health care reform – "Book Challenges Obama on Mother’s Deathbed Fight," says the NYT, which, of course, isn't generally inclined to cast unnecessary aspersions on this President. "Lied" is my paraphrasing. The NYT wrote "mischaracterized."

      During his presidential campaign and subsequent battle over a health care law, Mr. Obama quieted crowds with the story of his mother’s fight with her insurer over whether her cancer was a pre-existing condition that disqualified her from coverage.

      In offering the story as an argument for ending pre-existing condition exclusions by health insurers, the president left the clear impression that his mother’s fight was over health benefits for medical expenses.

      But in “A Singular Woman: The Untold Story of Barack Obama’s Mother,” author Janny Scott quotes from correspondence from the president’s mother to assert that the 1995 dispute concerned a Cigna disability insurance policy and that her actual health insurer had apparently reimbursed most of her medical expenses without argument….

      The book came out in early May. The reason this article is hitting the front page today is that the NYT has been trying to extract a response from Obama.

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      Read it all

      Campaign fodder

    • Jerry Brown signs bill requiring schools to teach gay history – Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation requiring public schools to include the contributions of gay and lesbian people in their curriculum, making California the first state to adopt such a requirement.

      The legislation, authored by Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, was approved in the Legislature along party lines, with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed. The governor's office announced this morning that Brown had signed the bill.

      Senate Bill 48 requires public instruction in social sciences to include the role and contributions of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Americans, as well as people with disabilities and members of other cultural groups.

      It would prohibit teaching from textbooks or other instructional materials that reflect adversely on people because of their sexual orientation.

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      Now, the LEFT Nanny State is directing what can be taught in the public schools.

      Guess more home schooling and private schools in California.

      I doubt too many states will follow California's lead here.

  • American Economy,  Polling

    Poll Watch: U.S. Satisfaction Falls to Two Year Low = 16%

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the country fell to 16% in July, the lowest in more than two years. Satisfaction approached this level in December 2010, when it descended to 17%, but it has not registered as low as 16% since February 2009 — President Barack Obama’s first full month in office — when it was 15%.

    Not a good sign for the incumbent President or members of Congress.

    Satisfaction fell four percentage points just in the last month, from 20% in June. Among party groups, Democrats’ satisfaction has dropped the most, from 35% to 25%. Independents’ satisfaction in June and July was fairly steady at 17% and 14%, respectively, and Republicans’ was unchanged at 9%.

    Looks like even Democrats are giving up on President Obama and his administration.

    Fewer Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today than were satisfied in June or in any month since February 2009. The recent month-to-month decline is seen particularly among Democrats, but is also evident among whites, broadly.

    Americans’ approval of Obama and of Congress, along with their economic confidence ratings, are all similar to where they stood in June, as well as prior to the bin Laden-related rally in April. Whether the dampened satisfaction this month is a temporary finding or the precursor for a possible decline in Gallup’s political and economic indicators remains to be seen.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 14th on 10:37

    These are my links for July 14th from 10:37 to 10:39:

    • Rasmussen Poll: ‘55% Oppose Tax Hike In Debt Ceiling Deal’ – The latest Rasmussen poll finds that "Just 34% think a tax hike should be included in any legislation to raise the debt ceiling. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 55% disagree and say it should not." In the debt ceiling debate, President Obama and the Democrats have insisted that raising taxes must be part of any deal to cut spending, while Republicans want only to cut spending.

      The report that accompanies the release of the poll notes a heavily partisan divide. "There is a huge partisan divide on the question," Rasmussen writes. "Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats want a tax hike in the deal while 82% of Republicans do not."

      But among independents, who will be essential to winning the next presidential election, most disapprove of hiking taxes: "35% favor a tax hike and 51% are opposed."

    • President 2012: Romney Still Way Ahead in New Hampshire – A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field with the support of 29% of likely primary voters, followed by Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, Sarah Palin at 8% and Newt Gingrich at 7%.
    • The polling is right: Why PPP deserves props – Here's a look at how PPP has done; the numbers speak for themselves:

      *5/14: West Virginia GOV Primary (D)

      Final PPP Poll (5/11-5/12): Tomblin 33% Thompson 20% Tennant 17% Perdue 11% (13 points)

      Actual Outcome: Tomblin 40% Thompson 24% Tennant 17% Perdue 13% (16 points)

      *5/14: West Virginia GOV Primary (R)

      Final PPP Poll (5/11-5/12): Maloney 32% Ireland 31% (1 point)

      Actual Outcome: Maloney 45% Ireland 31% (14 points)

      *5/24: New York 26 Special

      Final PPP (5/21-5/22): Hochul 42% Corwin 36% (6 points)

      Actual Outcome: Hochul 47% Corwin 43% (4 points)

      *7/12 California 36 Special

      Final PPP (7/8-7/10): Hahn 52% Huey 44% (8 points)

      Actual Outcome: Hahn 54% Huey 45% (9 points) 

      ======

      I use their polls and ave found them reasoned and accurate. Just because they are Dems, doesn't necessarily mean they are massaging the data.

      Because if they do and they are off, they lose their credibility and are out of business.

      Candidates and pundits need accurate data, not spin.

  • Barack Obama,  Eric Cantor

    Poker Player Obama Warns Eric Cantor: “Don’t Call My Bluff”

    President Obama at the WSOP

    Sounds like President Obama is taking after WSOP Main Event winner Jaime Gold.

    Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”

    “It ended with the president abruptly walking out of the meeting,” Cantor told reporters upon returning to the Capitol Wednesday.

    Democrats immediately disputed the GOP account, saying Obama had sought to end a meeting when Cantor interrupted him to get a final word. “No. Absolutely not,” Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told The Hill in a brief interview when asked about Cantor’s description.

    A Democratic source familiar with the negotiations said the reports of a dramatic or abrupt walk-out by Obama were overblown, but the source acknowledged that the president “said what he was going to say, he got up and walked out.”

    “The climax of the meeting was the president basically saying ‘what’s happening in this room confirms what everybody across the country thinks about Washington, D.C.,’” the official said. “Which is that people are more interested in protecting their base and political positioning than solving problems.”

    The differing accounts came after the fourth day of White House debt talks in a row.

    Cantor said Obama became “agitated” when the House majority leader said Republicans were now open to holding two votes to increase the debt ceiling between now and the 2012 elections, which the president has rejected.

    Obama said he wanted congressional leaders to decide by Friday what approach to take on the debt limit. The Treasury Department has set an Aug. 2 deadline for lifting the ceiling, and ratings agencies are warning that they will downgrade U.S. credit if Congress doesn’t act — an action that could send markets tumbling.

    “We are very far apart right now,” Cantor said he told the president. “I don’t know if we can get there.”

    Conflicting accounts of the meeting or not, Mr. President you ain’t Jaime Gold and you are not supposed to let on that you are bluffing.

    Some poker player…..

  • Barack Obama,  Day By Day

    Day By Day July 14, 2011 – Real Estate

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, with the latest polls out of Iowa, North Carolina and Florida, if I were President Obama I would be looking for some retirement property in Chicago.

    Today’s Gallup Daily Presidential poll has him at 44% approval and 48% disapproval. Obama’s walking out of a debt-ceiling meeting with the GOP yesterday cannot be a good sign to American voters.

    Previous:

    The Day By Day Archive

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: Does Rep. Elect Janice Hahn Have Time to Celebrate?

    Los Angeles City councilwoman Janice Hahn celebrates victory with her campaign staff in 36th Congressional District race Tuesday night July 12, 2011 at her election party at Ports O’ Call Restaurant in San Pedro. Hahn defeated Republican Craig Huey in a bitter contest for a Southern California House seat, preserving the party’s hold on the district and surviving an unusually tough race in a Democratic stronghold

    Maybe for a day or so and then that is it.

    Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn won’t have much time to savor her victory in Tuesday’s special election for a South Bay-area congressional seat before she has to run again — and in a district that could soon see significant changes.

    Hahn, a Democrat in an area where her party enjoys an 18-point registration edge, defeated Republican Craig Huey, 54.6% to 45.4%. But she’ll need to start campaigning again soon, as next year’s primary is less than a year away.

    All eyes, including those of the defeated Republican Craig Huey will be on the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission. When their final Congressional District maps are released in August, then the campaign for 2012 begins a new. I suspect that Hahn will again have to face off against Craig Huey.

    Hence, when all of the precincts are counted and the votes mapped, political assessments will be calculated.

    Under the first proposed maps released by the Citizens Redistricting Commission last month, Hahn’s turf would lose Venice and some other communities at the north end dominated by the Democratic Party and pick up the more Republican-friendly Palos Verdes Peninsula on the south. It would more closely resemble its configuration in 1998, the year then-GOP Assemblyman Steven T. Kuykendall defeated Hahn in her first bid for the seat.

    That was one of the closest House races in the country. Two years later, Harman defeated Kuykendall of Rancho Palos Verdes. In 2001 the district, along with others in California, was redrawn in a deal the two major parties cut to protect incumbents.

    And, remember in California, it is a top two system. With a more GOP oriented district and with perhaps two incumbent Democratic Representatives thrown into the newly configured CA-36, Janice Hahn may face two tough election fights. Or, may not survive next June’s (or February’s) primary election.

    Tuesday night’s victory dance for Janice Hahn may be short-lived.