• Barack Obama,  President 2012

    Photo of the Day: Obama’s Canadian Made Bus

    U.S. President Barack Obama steps off his bus as he arrives to meet the Silver Streaks football team at Galesburg High School, Illinois, August 17, 2011. Obama is on a Midwest bus trip through Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois

    No made in America for this POL.

    The bus was ordered by the Secret Service in July 2010 and delivered two months ago.

    The feds bought the two coaches for $2.2 million from Hemphill Brothers Coach, based in Tennessee. It installed custom interior upgrades into the Prevost shell, which accounted for about half the cost.

    The contract lists the country of origin as Canada and place of manufacture as “outside U.S. – Trade Agreements,” a possible reference to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

    ABC News has more.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for August 16th through August 17th

    These are my links for August 16th through August 17th:

    • Is Rick Perry the new Fred Thompson? – Perry has criticized Arizona’s tough anti-illegal immigration laws, and is a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, a battery of legislation that would put over 10 million illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship. Conservatives call this amnesty. They are so offended by the policy that they were able to stop its implementation when another Texas Republican tried to push it through with help from a Democratic congress. Conservatives never trusted Bush again.

      Perry has also issues with social conservatives. He approved mandatory HPV vaccinations for all Texas public school girls above the objections of the religious right. He says he is “Okay” with New York’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage, a provocative position for a candidate who wants to appeal to religious conservaties, and one that could intensify the now-whispered accusation that Perry is a closeted homosexual.

      And moderates can find plenty to dislike as well. There was the governor’s well-publicized flirtation with secession in 2009 for starters. And Perry’s religiosity goes beyond investing common American political maxims with Biblical language the way Obama does. Perry has encouraged Texas residents to pray for rain, a decision that was widely mocked. And he is holding a Day of Prayer and Fasting on August 6 that will include a panoply of pastors whose views go beyond the Evangelical mainstream. Needless to say, DAR Republicans don’t want a candidate whose religious friends describe the Statue of Liberty as an “idol” or think Oprah’s career portends the arrival of the Antichrist.

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      Read it all

    • Some conservatives not thrilled by Rick Perry – But the vaccine controversy isn’t Perry’s only break from conservative orthodoxy.

      “The Gardasil debacle is just one of many concerns a wide range of grassroots conservative activists have about Perry's record as governor,” said prominent conservative blogger Michelle Malkin, who wrote a post critical of Perry on Wednesday. “He’s soft on illegal immigration despite a few recent nods to border enforcement. He's prone to crony capitalism. And as the vaccine mandate scandal shows, he demonstrated Nanny State tendencies that are anathema to Tea Party core principles.”

      Perry has also ruffled feathers with social conservatives in recent days by saying that under 10th Amendment principles, gay marriage in New York didn’t bother him. After all, Perry endorsed former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 presidential race, who is hardly considered a social conservative.

      Perry has also drawn criticism for his plans for the Trans-Texas Corridor, a failed cross-state toll road that drew criticism from rural property owners and immigration foes, because the plan involved a partnership with the Mexican government.

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      Read it all.

      I am concerned with his past of handling illegal immigration and the Texas Dream Act in particular.

      The Crony Capitalism is also a non-starter for me.

      If it is a choice between Romney, Perry and Bachmann, the GOP had better team up two of the three or Obama wins.

    • President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13% #tcot #catcot
    • Gregory Flap Cole – Google+ – Tax the rich – yeah right.

      Maybe the NFL and NBA should… – Tax the rich – yeah right.Maybe the NFL and NBA should add some more teams?

    • Warren Buffett’s Tax Dodge – The billionaire volunteers the middle class for a tax increase – Barney Kilgore, the man who made the Wall Street Journal into a national publication, was once asked why so many rich people favored higher taxes. That's easy, he replied. They already have their money.

      That insight is worth recalling amid the latest political duet from President Obama and Warren Buffett demanding higher taxes on "millionaires and billionaires." Mr. Buffett is repeating his now familiar argument this week, coinciding with Mr. Obama's Midwestern road trip on the economy. Since the media are treating Mr. Buffett as a tax oracle, let's take a closer look at some of the billionaire's intellectual tax dodges.

      • The double tax oversight. The Berkshire Hathaway magnate makes much of the fact that he paid only 17.4% of his income in taxes, which he considers unfair when salaried workers often pay more. But Mr. Buffett makes most of his income from his investments, in particular from dividends and capital gains that are taxed at a rate of 15%.

      What he doesn't say is that much of his income was already taxed once as corporate income, which is assessed at a 35% rate (less deductions). The 15% levy on capital gains and dividends to individuals is thus a double tax that takes the overall tax rate on that corporate income closer to 45%.

      This onerous tax on capital is a U.S. competitive disadvantage in the global economy, which is why Congress agreed in 2003 to cut the rates on dividends and capital gains. Even as the rest of the world is cutting tax rates on corporate income, Mr. Buffett wants to raise U.S. rates in a way that would make America less attractive for investment. Under a sensible tax reform, the feds would impose either a corporate tax or a dividend and capital gains tax, but not both.

      • The middle-class bait-and-switch. Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Buffett speaks about raising taxes only on the rich. But somehow he ignores that the President's tax increase starts at $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples. Mr. Obama ought to call them "thousandaires," but that probably doesn't poll as well.

      The President needs to levy his tax increase at such a lower income level because that's where the money is. In 2009, 237,000 taxpayers reported income above $1 million and they paid $178 billion in taxes. A mere 8,274 filers reported income above $10 million, and they paid only $54 billion in taxes.

      But 3.92 million reported income above $200,000 in 2009, and they paid $434 billion in taxes. To put it another way, roughly 90% of the tax filers who would pay more under Mr. Obama's plan aren't millionaires, and 99.99% aren't billionaires.

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      Read it all

    • Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 17, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 17, 2011 #tcot #catcot
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: August 17, 2011 – The Morning Drill: August 17, 2011
    • Poll Watch: American Unemployment Rate Up to 9.1% in Mid-August | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Poll Watch: American Unemployment Rate Up to 9.1% in Mid-August #tcot #catcot
    • President 2012: Obama’s NOT So Secret Economic Plan = Blame Congress | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012: Obama’s NOT So Secret Economic Plan = Blame Congress #tcot #catcot
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-08-17 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-08-17 #tcot #catcot
    • Flap’s Links and Comments for August 16th on 14:33 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for August 16th on 14:33 #tcot #catcot
  • Jon Huntsman,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 36% Vs. Perry 18% Vs. Paul 14% Vs. Bachmann 10%

    According to the latest NH Journal/Magellan Strategies Poll.

    In the wake of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s entrance into the GOP presidential race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds onto a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

    Romney, who owns a home in the Granite State, attracts 36 percent support from likely GOP primary voters, according to a NH Journal/Magellan Strategies (R) poll released Wednesday. Perry makes a strong debut in the poll, however, placing second behind Romney with 18 percent support. Fellow Texan Ron Paul rounds out the top three with 14 percent.

    Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, whose focus on the early state of Iowa paid off in the form of a straw poll victory in Ames over the weekend, garners 10 percent support. Bachmann’s Iowa victory likely won’t boost her prospects in New Hampshire, however, as 84 percent of likely voters polled say the straw poll results won’t impact their decision in the GOP primary.

    A good initial New Hampshire poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry.

    Not so good for Michele Bachmann who won last weekend’s Iowa Ames Straw Poll. It seems that Perry who just announced a few days ago is sucking the air out of Bachmann’s conservative base and her campaign.

    And, Jon Huntsman. Why is he still in the race?

    Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman attracts only 3 percent support from voters. The former U.S. ambassador to China has been polling near the bottom of national surveys, but his focus has been on New Hampshire. He visited the state last week, but the Magellan survey shows a plurality of voters in the state — 47 percent — have an unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty percent say they like him while 24 percent say they don’t know enough about him to make a decision.

  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: 26% Approve of Obama’s Handling of the Economy = A New Low

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    A new low of 26% of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, down 11 percentage points since Gallup last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010.

    Obama earns similarly low approval for his handling of the federal budget deficit (24%) and creating jobs (29%).

    Obama’s job approval numbers are down across the board except on terrorism.

    The chart:

    So, what does this mean?

    It looks like President Obama will have to accelerate his campaign to persuade Americans he is competent because every day he is sinking in some poll.

    President Obama’s approval rating has dwindled in recent weeks to the point that it is barely hugging the 40% line. Three months earlier, it approached or exceeded 50%. History will remember this period for the messy political debate in Washington over the debt ceiling, followed by distress on Wall Street and tragedy in Afghanistan. How much each of these factors is responsible for the overall decline in Obama’s approval rating is unclear. But Americans’ unhappiness with each of them is reflected in recent declines in Obama’s specific job ratings for the economy, the federal budget deficit, and various foreign policy measures, as well as in his markedly low rating for creating jobs.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%…with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field. 

    These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn’t even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann’s up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty’s fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out. 

    Palin’s support is down 5 points, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are each down 4, Cain’s down 3, and Huntsman’s down 1. At least in Wisconsin Perry and Bachmann are clearly sucking the wind out of the rest of the field and it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s the case everywhere in polling over the next couple weeks.

    Another poor showing for Mitt Romney in an early GOP primary state after Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recent entrance into the Presidential race.

    And, this poll assumes a Sarah Palin candidacy which at this time would likely be siphoning votes away from Bachmann and Perry.

    If you take Palin out of the picture Bachmann gains even more steam, getting 24% to 20% for Perry, 17% for Romney, and 10% for Gingrich.

    The entire poll is here.

  • California,  Elton Gallegly,  Flap's California Morning Collection,  Poker,  Tony Strickland

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 17, 2011

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    Internet poker battle waged in Sacramento

    A group of casino operators has taken to radio and television with ads urging state lawmakers to legalize Internet poker in California, prompting opponents to step up pressure for legislators to table the proposal for the year.

    The ads by the California Online Poker Assn. say legalizing web-based poker could help the state avoid deep budget cuts. The spots started airing in the Sacramento area this week. Legislators are less than a month away from the deadline to act on bills this year.

    “Online poker will provide California with $250 million dollars immediately and billions more in the future,’’ said Ryan Hightower, a spokesman for the association.

    The group includes Commerce Casino, Bicycle Club, Hollywood Park Casino and operators of American Indian gaming facilities, including the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians.

    Other American Indian tribes have joined the California Tribal Business Alliance, which Tuesday sent a letter to legislators asking them to drop two pending pieces of legislation for the year.

    The alliance includes the Pala Band of Mission Indians, which operates a casino near Temecula. The alliance argues that Internet poker could take customers away from brick-and-mortar casinos.

    Dan Walters: A corporate tax break Democrats adore – The Film Industry

    Democratic politicians and liberal groups, including unions, often rail against corporate tax loopholes as unjustified raids on the public treasury – as they should.

    Loopholes are particularly troublesome during periods, such as this one, when state and local budgets are leaking red ink and basic public services are being slashed.

    But one multimillion-dollar loophole draws vocal support from those who usually oppose corporate tax breaks – one that happens to benefit a heavily unionized industry whose top executives are overwhelmingly Democrats and contribute lavishly to the party’s candidates and causes.

    That would be Southern California’s movie and television production community.

    California revenues down, Department of Finance confirms

    Gov. Jerry Brown’s Department of Finance said Tuesday that California was $541 million shy of its July revenue forecast, a total similar to one released last week by state Controller John Chiang.

    School officials grew nervous last week because the state budget signed by Brown requires K-12 districts to absorb cuts if the state falls $4 billion shy of revenue expectations for the fiscal year. The budget also would impose cuts to higher education, social services and public safety programs.

    State legislators and Brown tacked on that $4 billion expectation of higher revenues to finish closing the state deficit in June.

    Finance officials, in a department bulletin, cautioned against early concern. They suggested that most of the higher revenues would come on the back end of the fiscal year, from December through June. And they said forecasts by the Legislative Analyst’s Office and Department of Finance in November and December would determine whether the “trigger” cuts are necessary.

    The $541 million in missed revenues represents 9.2 percent of the $5.867 billion that Finance expected the state to receive in July.

    November 2012 Targets – Part Three: The State Senate

    Last week, I made my early picks a to where the action may be for Congress and the state Assembly in November 2012. Now, lets look at the state Senate.

    First, only the 20 odd-numbered districts are up for election in 2012, and, barring a successful court challenge or referendum, the candidates will run in one of the newly drawn districts that the Citizens Redistricting Commission, in their final vote, are expected to approve today, August 15.

    Senators elected in 2010 in one of the 20 even-numbered districts were elected to a four-year term and will represent those districts as drawn until the end of their current term in 2014. Should any of these senators resign his/her seat, a special election would be held to fill the unexpired term, but the election would be held under the old lines. The newly drawn even-numbered districts do not become legal until the 2014 election cycle.

    Here are the odd-numbered senate districts that I pick as possibly being competitive, with the more likely targets being listed first.

    27th Senate District: Republican Sen. Tony Strickland and Democratic Sen. Fran Pavley are gearing up to battle each other for this highly competitive district that encompasses Ventura County’s Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks, and the L.A. County city of Malibu, stretching north through the west San Fernando Valley and ending in Santa Clarita. Forty percent of the voters in this new district reside in the current 19th District represented by Strickland, while thirty-six percent reside in Pavley’s current 23rd District.  It’s also interesting to note that half of the new Senate district overlaps Assembly districts currently represented by Republicans Jeff Gorell and Cameron Smyth, while the other half overlaps Assembly districts currently represented by Democrats Robert Blumenfield and Julia Brownley.

    Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman tied here, 47% -47%, while Carly Fiorina squeaked by Barbara Boxer 47% – 46%.

    Side Note: Should Cong. Elton Gallegly (R) decide to not seek reelection to Congress next year, Strickland could decide to run for the Gallegly congressional seat. That would open the door for Asm. Cameron Smyth (R-Santa Clarita) to run in this district.

    I look for Tony Strickland to run for the Congressional seat of a retiring Elton Gallegly

    Enjoy your morning!

  • American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: American Unemployment Rate Up to 9.1% in Mid-August



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-August — compared with 8.8% at the end of July and 9.1% in mid-August 2010.

    In the meantime, underemployment as measured by Gallup shows some modest improvement.

    Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.2% in mid-August — compared with 18.0% at the end of July and 18.3% in mid-August 2010.

    The chart:

    The youngest and oldest workers continue to struggle in the economy. Also, the less educated.

    One worrisome aspect of the current situation is that the U.S. economy simply has not been growing fast enough — as reflected in first half GDP — to create the number of new jobs necessary to meet population growth, let alone significantly reduce the unemployment rate. This is consistent with Gallup’s finding that unemployment now is essentially no better than it was at this time in 2010.

    In particular, it appears Americans 65 or older who want to continue to work are having more of a problem finding a job than they did a year ago. Unemployment among this group increased to 8.2% this year from 6.7% a year ago. It may be that more baby boomers want to or need to keep working as they reach retirement age. Or, the losses on Wall Street over the past couple of years may be making many older Americans postpone retirement. Whatever the reasons, the job situation facing older Americans seems to be deteriorating.

    At the other end of the age spectrum, unemployment hovers around the 12% level among those aged 18 to 29 (at 12.4% in mid-August, up from 11.9% a year ago) and among those with a high school education or less (11.9%, vs. 12.0%). Continued high unemployment among these two groups supports the notion that the prolonged and historically high unemployment rates of the past several years signify a serious structural unemployment problem in the U.S.

    And, regionally employment in the Eastern part of the United states appears to have deteriorated from a year ago. It is unchanged in the South while unemployment has declined in the West and Midwest.

    So, what are the implications?

    President Obama and incumbent Members of Congress are looking for improving employment numbers. They are not and remember NO incumbent President has been re-elected with a national unemployment figure above 8 per cent, unless the trend like in the Reagan years is demonstrably improving.

    The economy is stagnant and unemployment is NOT improving.

    A danger sign for incumbent POLS, particularly with Senior Citizen voters who DO turn out and VOTE.

  • Barack Obama,  Paul Ryan,  President 2012

    President 2012: Obama’s NOT So Secret Economic Plan = Blame Congress

    President Barack Obama greets people at DeWitt Dairy Treats, Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2011, in DeWitt, Iowa, during his three-day economic bus tour

    Pretty weak, but then again, Obama has been an ineffectual President.

    President Obama has a secret plan. He told Iowans Monday his “very specific plan” would boost the economy, create jobs, and control the deficit. What are the details of this plan? Sorry, Obama has to travel to Martha’s Vineyard for a ten day vacation first.

    According to National Journal, Obama’s secret plan is part of a new White House strategy to counter the “growing perception that President Obama is a weak leader.” Apparently, the president’s senior advisers believe Libya, Egypt, and the debt hike debate “have done serious damage to his leadership image.” The polling backs this belief up. NJ reports: “In April 2009, Gallup found 73 percent of Americans who said that Obama was a “strong leader.” In May 2010, that had declined to 60 percent. In March 2011, Gallup had it down to 52 percent. There has been no more recent polling on that issue.” And that leadership fall all happened before Libya and the debt hike.

    Obama’s solution? Blame Congress. But how can Obama blame Congress for his own leadership failures? That is where the “very specific” secret plan comes in. Obama hopes to convince Americans that 1) he has a plan to cut the debt and create jobs, and 2) only “unreasonable” Republicans in Congress stand between America and success. Will it work? That depends on how compliant the press is.

    Obama has not submitted a specific plan to address the debt since he submitted his budget to Congress in February. That plan was rejected by the Senate 97-0. Obama has since given many speeches about the debt, but as Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf testified to House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, “We don’t estimate speeches. We need much more specificity then was provided in that speech for us to do our analysis.”

    And, I doubt Obama will submit anything that can be effectively scored by the Congressional Budget Office. So, here we go again, a set of speeches and NO specific proposal.

    Paul Ryan is going to have Obama for lunch.