• President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Is Sarah Palin Willing to Roll the Dice?

    Say Good Bye Sarah?

    Well, is she? Because of Palin loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, she is essentially done in politics and her celebrity status is destroyed – put a fork in her Fox News gig and her huge speaking fees.

    The main problem for Palin is how profoundly she’s alienated the Republican Party’s elites — the elected officials, fundraisers, political professionals, activist group leaders and commentators who help shape mass opinion on the right — since her 2008 vice presidential campaign. Instead of cultivating them and seeking to use her newfound celebrity to build a genuine national political operation, she pushed them all away, preferring to chart her own erratic course. The result has been a public relations nightmare. Relying on her own instincts, Palin has found herself in one needless, self-induced and no-win controversy after another, with virtually no opinion-shaping elites using their clout to defend her. This was best illustrated in the aftermath of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting in January, which influential conservative commentators took as an opportunity to inflict serious political damage on Palin.

    Palin is now saddled with a truly poisonous level of unpopularity among all voters who aren’t conservative Republicans. And even within that group, her image isn’t what it used to be. If she were to mount a campaign, she would be entirely on her own, just like she has been since 2008, and that’s a recipe for disaster.

    So, if Sarah Palin runs, she will be desperate for a win. Polls over the past six months have consistently showed her behind either Romney, Bachmann, Perry and/or RON PAUL in the early primary states.

    In running, Sarah will be rolling the dice and hoping not to crap out.

    If she jumped in, polls would initially show her in contention, but she’d be running a structure- and discipline-free campaign with no support from GOP opinion-shapers and on a message that really isn’t unique. Republican voters who haven’t yet figured it out would realize she’s not a viable option and abandon her for a candidate who seems to have a better chance. If she were to then suffer humiliating defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Palin might suddenly find that the media isn’t nearly as interested in her every tweet and Facebook post as it once was.

    In other words, those who just want her to go away should consider a Palin presidential campaign an investment: You’d have to deal with a few weeks (or maybe even months) of saturation coverage, but there’d be a good chance it would all end with Palin’s presence in our lives severely and permanently diminished.

    Are you willing to gamble, Sarah?

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for August 22nd through August 23rd

    These are my links for August 22nd through August 23rd:

  • Barack Obama,  Hispanic Vote,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Perry 43% or Romney 45% Vs. Obama 45%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we’ll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry’s rise? It might be Barack Obama.

    In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.

    It’s a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.

    My Oh My.

    On the day where Rick Perry is seen to be pulling away from Mitt Romney, this new general election poll gives Romney some TV ad fodder as being the most electable alternative to President Obama.

    This race is so on…..

    One big reason Obama’s doing pretty well in these match ups is the Hispanic vote. Exit polls in 2008 showed him winning it by a 36 point margin over McCain but he builds on that in all of these match ups with a 37 point advantage over Romney at 66-29, a 46 point one over Perry at 72-26, a 48 point edge over Bachmann at 74-26, a 49 point lead on Palin at 74-25, and a 53 point spread on Herman Cain at 75-22. This is a good example of what Republican strategist Mike Murphy has described as the economics vs. demographics tension for next year’s election. The economy could sink Obama but at the same time an ever growing expanding Hispanic vote that he wins by a huge margin could be enough to let him eek out a second term. It’s certainly propping him up on this poll.

    I wonder how this demographic breaks out, if either former Florida Governor Jeb Bush or Senator Marco Rubio, who speaks at the Reagan Library tonight, are added as a Vice Presidential pick?

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Rises in Recognition and Has a High Positive Intensity Score



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now recognized by 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, an increase of 13 percentage points from two weeks ago. Still, six of the other nine candidates or potential candidates are better known than Perry, led by Sarah Palin (97%) and Rudy Giuliani (91%). Of the announced candidates, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann are best known.

    The latest results are based on Aug. 8-21 Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 Republican candidate images. Perry officially entered the race on Aug. 13. Prior to that announcement, 54% of Republicans were familiar with him. He is one of two candidates who have seen their recognition levels increase significantly over that time, a period that included the second candidate debate on Aug. 11 and the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13. Bachmann, the winner of that straw poll, saw her recognition score increase five points.

    Good polling news for Governor Perry today. He is leading in the latest Iowa GOP poll and a national poll to be released tomorrow will have him leading nationally overtaking former front-runner Mitt Romney.

    As Perry has become better known over the past two weeks, his Positive Intensity Score has been stable in the low 20s — now 22, compared with 23 two weeks ago. That score is based on the percentage of Republicans familiar with Perry who have a strongly favorable opinion of him minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion.

    Perry’s Positive Intensity Score is higher than all other Republicans’ except Herman Cain’s. Cain’s 28 — tied with his score from late May/early June — is the highest Gallup has measured for any candidate this year.

    Here is the chart.

    So, what does this mean?

    Texas Governor Rick Perry is off to a good start and now has a target on his back, primarily from Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. There appears now to be NO front-runner in this race.

    Perry is off to a good start as a now-official candidate, seeing his familiarity among Republicans increase significantly in the last two weeks while maintaining a high Positive Intensity Score. The challenge for him is to keep that score up, now that he is actively campaigning. With that exposure comes the inevitable media scrutiny regarding his issue positions, personal qualities, and record for a broader audience, many of whom may not view them positively.

    To date, Cain and Bachmann are the only candidates who have seen a rise in positive intensity as they became better known, although Bachmann’s scores have declined in recent weeks as her recognition level has surpassed three-quarters of Republicans.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he’s at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

    If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.

    Looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry has leap frogged over Michele Bachmann to become the anti-Romney candidate. Bachmann is fading even after her Ames Straw Poll win.

    Now, the question is will Sarah Palin jump into this race and if so, how will she play in light of her lower poll numbers? Will Palin even be a player in Iowa?

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Boeing,  National Labor Relations Board,  Workforce Fairness Institute

    Obama Administration Plans To Scale Back Regulations On Businesses Called BS by Workforce Fairness Institute

    The White House announced today that it will scale back regulations on business.

    The Obama administration will release final plans Tuesday for ending or cutting back hundreds of regulations, an effort to reduce the burden on business and counter criticism that the White House is tone-deaf to business concerns.  Certain railroad cars won’t have to install expensive technology, hospitals will be able to skip a round of federal paperwork and low-risk travelers to the U.S. will enjoy expedited entry, officials said.  Some businesses will be allowed to file federal forms electronically.  The administration estimates that about a dozen of the changes will save businesses some $10 billion over five years, with other smaller initiatives adding to the total.  But the changes don’t affect the broad thrust of major administration initiatives that have drawn criticism from businesses, such as proposed rules to reduce carbon emissions and laws passed last year that aim to protect consumers from financial and health-insurance abuses.  The White House said it sought to eliminate ‘dumb’ rules without undermining the underlying goals

    But….. the Workforce Fairness Institute is calling the Obama Administration out.

    From the press release:

    The Workforce Fairness Institute (WFI) issued the following statement and list of rules, complaints and actions President Obama can instruct Federal agencies to shed or refrain from enacting if today’s announcement from the White House concerning plans for “ending or cutting back hundreds of regulations…to reduce the burden on business” is at all serious.
     
    “Today’s announcement on reduced regulations from the White House certainly appears to be nothing more than a political charade.  As the Obama Administration makes this announcement, his regulatory agencies are considering job-killing rules that will increase unemployment and force businesses to close,” said Fred Wszolek, spokesperson for the Workforce Fairness Institute (WFI).  “President Obama may think he’s being clever, but in reality, actions like these insult workers and employers as they fail to seriously address the issues impeding job creation.  If Obama is in any way genuine, he will call on his National Labor Relations Board, National Mediation Board and Department of Labor to stop the assault against small businesses so they can focus on getting our nation’s economy back on a path toward recovery.”
     
     
    Rules, Complaints & Actions President Obama Can Instruct Federal Agencies To Shed Or Refrain From Enacting
     
    1) NLRB: Rescind complaint against the Boeing Company.
     
    2) NLRB: Withhold issuance of ruling in Specialty Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center of Mobile.
     
    3) NLRB: Cease activity on proposed rule closing the election window from 38 days to just over a week.
     
    4) NLRB: Refrain from instituting organizing elections that are offsite or employ electronic technology.
     
    5) NLRB: Withdraw decision requiring employees who objected to paying full agency fees for nonrepresentational purposes to renew annually.
     
    6) NLRB: End lawsuit against states that passed constitutional amendments defending the secret ballot.
     
    7) NLRB: Cancel judgment allowing third party contractors to access private property to organize workers and distribute materials.
     
    8) NLRB: Annul decision allowing large inflatable rats to be displayed outside businesses for the purpose of intimidating workers and customers.
     
    9) NMB: Retract rule changing nearly a century of precedent in the airline and railroad industries whereby a majority of workers were required to form a collective bargaining unit.
     
    10) NMB: Stop frivolous investigations against airlines and job creators.

     
    Inflatable rats?

    Yeah, this is just a re-election ploy by Obama to say one thing and then continue on with their policies of destroying American business.

    If anything can be said of President Obama he certainly has negatively affected business in this country. I don’t think this puny and late effort will gain much traction, particularly when the flap with the NLRB and Boeing Corporation continues over their South Carolina airplane plant.

  • Darrel Issa,  Day By Day,  New York Times

    Day By Day August 23, 2011 – These Are The Times

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The American public have lost faith in the “Lamestream” media because of the crap that goes on at the New York Times. Look at the Rep. Darrel Issa story.

    New York Times reporter Eric Lichtblau opened his Monday front page story on the overlap between Rep. Darrell Issa’s business and governmental work with a compelling scene:

    “Here on the third floor of a gleaming office building overlooking a golf course in the rugged foothills north of San Diego, Darrell Issa, the entrepreneur, oversees the hub of a growing financial empire worth hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    But here’s the problem: Lichtblau, a Pulitzer Prize winner, says he never saw that exact view of Shadowridge Country Club — though he did visit the third floor of the building. And Issa’s office says the course cannot be seen from anywhere in the building.

    That’s only a minor point in a story that Issa, the chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, is saying is riddled with inaccuracies. In the days since the story ran, Issa has been on a crusade against the story, which put Issa’s business and political life under a tough spotlight.

    Issa claims that The Times asserted a building he bought went up in value, when it did not and the story said Issa went easy on Toyota during congressional inquiries because a company he founded was a supplier to them, when in fact Issa says his Directed Electronics corporation does not have a relationship with Toyota. Issa’s camp also says the Times’ assertion that his charitable foundation reaped a windfall from a financial holding is false, as he actually lost money on the investment.

    The credibility of the New York Times is like the rest of the MSM.

    Take it with a grain of salt – trust but verify.

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