Archive for August 23rd, 2011
Say Good Bye Sarah?
Well, is she? Because of Palin loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, she is essentially done in politics and her celebrity status is destroyed
– put a fork in her Fox News gig and her huge speaking fees.
The main problem for Palin is how profoundly she’s alienated the Republican Party’s elites — the elected officials, fundraisers, political professionals, activist group leaders and commentators who help shape mass opinion on the right — since her 2008 vice presidential campaign. Instead of cultivating them and seeking to use her newfound celebrity to build a genuine national political operation, she pushed them all away, preferring to chart her own erratic course. The result has been a public relations nightmare. Relying on her own instincts, Palin has found herself in one needless, self-induced and no-win controversy after another, with virtually no opinion-shaping elites using their clout to defend her. This was best illustrated in the aftermath of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting in January, which influential conservative commentators took as an opportunity to inflict serious political damage on Palin.
Palin is now saddled with a truly poisonous level of unpopularity among all voters who aren’t conservative Republicans. And even within that group, her image isn’t what it used to be. If she were to mount a campaign, she would be entirely on her own, just like she has been since 2008, and that’s a recipe for disaster.
So, if Sarah Palin runs, she will be desperate for a win. Polls over the past six months have consistently showed her behind either Romney, Bachmann, Perry and/or RON PAUL in the early primary states.
In running, Sarah will be rolling the dice and hoping not to crap out.
If she jumped in, polls would initially show her in contention, but she’d be running a structure- and discipline-free campaign with no support from GOP opinion-shapers and on a message that really isn’t unique. Republican voters who haven’t yet figured it out would realize she’s not a viable option and abandon her for a candidate who seems to have a better chance. If she were to then suffer humiliating defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Palin might suddenly find that the media isn’t nearly as interested in her every tweet and Facebook post as it once was.
In other words, those who just want her to go away should consider a Palin presidential campaign an investment: You’d have to deal with a few weeks (or maybe even months) of saturation coverage, but there’d be a good chance it would all end with Palin’s presence in our lives severely and permanently diminished.
Are you willing to gamble, Sarah?
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These are my links for August 22nd through August 23rd:
- President 2012: Huntsman’s Anti-GOP Strategy – When Joe Manchin wanted to save his U.S. Senate campaign, the West Virginia Democrat loaded a rifle and put a bullet through a sheet of paper labeled "cap and tax bill" in the most memorable ad of the 2010 campaign. As Jon Huntsman tries to save his GOP presidential bid, he's decided to embrace global warming as a wedge issue. Mr. Manchin had the better strategy.
Mr. Huntsman, the former Utah governor and ambassador to Beijing, began his candidacy stressing his resume and his attractive family. With that getting him nowhere in a year when issues trump biography, he's now attacking fellow Republicans for, among other things, not embracing the science of global warming. "To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy," Mr. Huntsman said on Twitter, a criticism of recent remarks by Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Mr. Huntsman followed that up on Sunday on ABC, telling Jake Tapper that the GOP has a "serious problem" when it becomes "anti-science."
The broadside was part of a larger strategy of attacking all of his GOP opponents for something or other. He ripped Mitt Romney for flip-flopping on taxes, assailed Michele Bachmann for saying she'd get gas prices below $2 a gallon and called Mr. Perry "unelectable."
Read it all
- Poll Watch: Most Voters Oppose Public Schooling, Tuition Breaks, Driver’s Licenses For Illegal Immigrants – The Obama administration announced last week that it was slowing the deportation process for "low priority" immigration cases to focus on illegal immigrants with criminal records. Critics complain the move is intended to get around Congress' refusal to pass the so-called Dream Act aimed at providing a path to citizenship for those who came to the country illegally before age 16. But a majority of voters remain opposed to giving the children of illegal immigrants the same educational opportunities as those who are here legally.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that only 32% of Likely U.S. Voters believe children of parents in this country illegally should be allowed to attend public school here. Fifty-three percent (53%) do not believe those young illegal immigrants should be allowed to attend public school. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last September, just 20% said local government should be required to provide a public school education for a child brought into the United States illegally by his or her parents. Sixty-four percent (64%) disagreed and said local governments should not be required to educate them.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters believe parents should be required to prove they are legal residents of the United States when registering their child for public school. Twenty-one percent (21%) oppose such a requirement.
Several states have made illegal immigrants eligible for lower in-state tuition at colleges and universities, but 81% of voters oppose such a move in their state. Just 12% think illegal immigrants should be eligible for these tuition breaks in their home state. Opposition to allowing illegal immigrants to be eligible for in-state tuition is slightly stronger than it was back in October 2007.
- Barack Obama and Rick Perry Drive the Week’s News | Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) – RT @pewresearch: #RickPerry was dominant newsmaker in 55% of election stories last week, with Mitt Romney at 6%
- Perry Grabs Lead in Iowa – RT @pwire: New GOP frontrunner: A national poll coming tomorrow shows Rick Perry with a double-digit lead…
- President 2012: What If Sarah Palin Runs? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012: What If Sarah Palin Runs? #tcot #catcot
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 23, 2011 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 23, 2011
- President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16% #tcot #catcot
- Jeff Galloway’s Monthly Newsletter: August 2011 | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Jeff Galloway’s Monthly Newsletter: August 2011
- Obama Administration Plans To Scale Back Regulations On Businesses Called BS by Workforce Fairness Institute | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Obama Administration Plans To Scale Back Regulations On Businesses Called BS by Workforce Fairness… #tcot #catcot
- Florida Senator Marco Rubio Will Address Reagan Forum Today » Flap’s California Blog – Florida Senator Marco Rubio Will Address Reagan Forum Today
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: August 23, 2011 – The Morning Drill: August 23, 2011
- Dilbert August 23, 2011 – Relationship » Flap’s California Blog – Dilbert August 23, 2011 – Relationship
- Day By Day August 23, 2011 – These Are The Times | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day August 23, 2011 – These Are The Times #tcot #catcot
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-08-23 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-08-23 #tcot #catcot
- Flap’s California Afternoon Collection: August 22, 2011 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Afternoon Collection: August 22, 2011
- President 2012: Start Gaming the Electoral College | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012: Start Gaming the Electoral College #tcot #catcot
- California Internet Gambling Bills Won’t Move This Year » Flap’s California Blog – California Internet Gambling Bills Won’t Move This Year
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Posted by Flap in Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Rick Perry, President 2012, Polling, Hispanic Vote, tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Polling, President 2012, Hispanic Vote
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we’ll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry’s rise? It might be Barack Obama.
In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.
It’s a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.
My Oh My.
On the day where Rick Perry is seen to be pulling away from Mitt Romney, this new general election poll gives Romney some TV ad fodder as being the most electable alternative to President Obama.
This race is so on…..
One big reason Obama’s doing pretty well in these match ups is the Hispanic vote. Exit polls in 2008 showed him winning it by a 36 point margin over McCain but he builds on that in all of these match ups with a 37 point advantage over Romney at 66-29, a 46 point one over Perry at 72-26, a 48 point edge over Bachmann at 74-26, a 49 point lead on Palin at 74-25, and a 53 point spread on Herman Cain at 75-22. This is a good example of what Republican strategist Mike Murphy has described as the economics vs. demographics tension for next year’s election. The economy could sink Obama but at the same time an ever growing expanding Hispanic vote that he wins by a huge margin could be enough to let him eek out a second term. It’s certainly propping him up on this poll.
I wonder how this demographic breaks out, if either former Florida Governor Jeb Bush or Senator Marco Rubio, who speaks at the Reagan Library tonight, are added as a Vice Presidential pick?
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now recognized by 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, an increase of 13 percentage points from two weeks ago. Still, six of the other nine candidates or potential candidates are better known than Perry, led by Sarah Palin (97%) and Rudy Giuliani (91%). Of the announced candidates, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann are best known.
The latest results are based on Aug. 8-21 Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 Republican candidate images. Perry officially entered the race on Aug. 13. Prior to that announcement, 54% of Republicans were familiar with him. He is one of two candidates who have seen their recognition levels increase significantly over that time, a period that included the second candidate debate on Aug. 11 and the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13. Bachmann, the winner of that straw poll, saw her recognition score increase five points.
Good polling news for Governor Perry today. He is leading in the latest Iowa GOP poll and a national poll to be released tomorrow will have him leading nationally overtaking former front-runner Mitt Romney.
As Perry has become better known over the past two weeks, his Positive Intensity Score has been stable in the low 20s — now 22, compared with 23 two weeks ago. That score is based on the percentage of Republicans familiar with Perry who have a strongly favorable opinion of him minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion.
Perry’s Positive Intensity Score is higher than all other Republicans’ except Herman Cain’s. Cain’s 28 — tied with his score from late May/early June — is the highest Gallup has measured for any candidate this year.
Here is the chart.
So, what does this mean?
Texas Governor Rick Perry is off to a good start and now has a target on his back, primarily from Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. There appears now to be NO front-runner in this race.
Perry is off to a good start as a now-official candidate, seeing his familiarity among Republicans increase significantly in the last two weeks while maintaining a high Positive Intensity Score. The challenge for him is to keep that score up, now that he is actively campaigning. With that exposure comes the inevitable media scrutiny regarding his issue positions, personal qualities, and record for a broader audience, many of whom may not view them positively.
To date, Cain and Bachmann are the only candidates who have seen a rise in positive intensity as they became better known, although Bachmann’s scores have declined in recent weeks as her recognition level has surpassed three-quarters of Republicans.
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