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Archive for August 26th, 2011


These are my links for August 26th from 18:21 to 18:39:

  • California State Democratic Party targets mail vote to boost L.A. turnout – Los Angeles County is crawling with Democrats – 2.3 million, in fact, far more than the six San Francisco Bay Area counties combined and the foundation of blue clout in an overwhelmingly blue state.

    But all those L.A. Democrats have a peculiarity: They don’t like voting by mail.

    In part, that stems from county election officials who over the years were not aggressive in developing a vote-by-mail system, Democrats say.

    “First, it’s because (former registrar) Connie McCormack made it very difficult for vote by mail and, second, minorities are less trustful in general of voting by mail,” said Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio.

    “It’s a giant county and you literally have to open all those things (mailed ballots). In terms of manpower, it’s difficult,” he added. “But a lot of counties have figured out that vote-by-mail actually saves money.”

    The logistics of L.A. are daunting, particularly for those Democrats who may have long commutes and longer work days, and who find it difficult to get to the polls.

    Getting a ballot to them could make a major difference, said Eric Bauman, chair of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party.

    “The voting day is over by the time they get home,” Bauman said. “That’s the kind of voter, the occasional voter, that you have to work hard to get out to vote. So the solution is to put a ballot in their hands, and that’s the starting point.” That means mailing registration forms to their addresses, then following up with a personal knock on the door.

    Another approach: Go to the swearing-in ceremonies for new citizens and encourage voter registration. For Democratic registrants, some nine out of 10 newly registered Democrats opt for vote-by-mail, Bauman said.


    Read it all

  • Capitol Weekly: Big Daddy – Hey Big Daddy,
    So, finally, for the first time in modern history, there may be two-thirds Democratic majorities in each house after next year’s elections. Are you happy?
    –Wondering in Westminster

    Dear Wondering,
    I’m so happy I could spit.

    It’s been a long-time coming, as my favorite pock-marked singer noted in the 1960s. When you follow the money, as I do feverishly with every waking moment, the only way you get to Heaven is with two-thirds majorities, although it helps to have a Democratic governor to make sure you’re spending enough. But lately, Heaven has had to wait.  Looks like 2012 may be a magic year.


    Read it all and be prepared to laugh

  • The Cohabitation Revolution – The great divorce revolution of the 1960s and 1970s has faded. The great cohabitation revolution has begun.

    The divorce rate for married couples with children is almost back to the levels of the early 1960s, before the run-up that crested in the early 1980s. Considering the decades of social turbulence buffeting the institution of marriage between then and now, this is a notable restoration.

    But it only means that marriage is unraveling in a different way. According to a new study by the Institute for American Values and the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, cohabitation has increased 14-fold since 1970. About 24 percent of children are born to cohabiting couples, more than are born to single mothers, while another 20 percent experience a cohabiting household at some time in their childhood.


    Read it all


Comments Comments Off on Flap’s Links and Comments for August 26th on 18:21


These are my links for August 26th from 06:03 to 14:40:


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According to the latest Magellan Strategies survey.

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 637 likely 2012 Republican primary voters in South Carolina.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 11 points.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 31%, Mitt Romney has 20%, and Michele Bachmann is third with 14%.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 9%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Ron Paul and the “Other Candidate” with 4%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 2%, and 9% undecided.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has zoomed to the top of the polls. If he can beat Bachmann in Iowa, she may drop out before the South Carolina Primary election. But, then again, if Romney does not win New Hampshire by a substantial margin, he may be dead coming into South Carolina too.

Remember Republicans like to end their Presidential primaries EARLY.


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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Rick Perry’s candidacy has attracted strong initial support from Republicans who identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement. Perry leads by 21 percentage points over the closest contenders among this group, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. Among Republicans who say they do not support the Tea Party movement, Romney and Perry are essentially tied.

These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, which showed Perry overtaking Romney as the front-runner for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination among all Republicans nationwide.

The poll finds that 58% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, with 36% saying they do not consider themselves supporters. Included among the group of Tea Party supporters is a smaller group — representing 12% of Republicans — who say they are “strong” supporters of the movement. Among this smaller group, Perry’s lead is even greater, 46% to 16%, over Bachmann, with all other candidates in single digits.

Since his announcement, Texas Governor Rick Perry has consolidated his voter support and leaped into the lead in most polls. Perry has frozen out Michele Bachmann as the leader of the Tea Party and may have forestalled a run by Sarah Palin (but we will see about that on September 3rd).

Perry has immediately become the preferred Republican nomination candidate of Tea Party movement supporters and, by extension, those who view government spending and power as the most important issue. He also demonstrates strong appeal to moral values voters, and is competitive with Romney among Republicans rating business and the economy as the most important issue.

Perry will attempt to consolidate the support of these constituencies in the coming months as he begins his nomination campaign in earnest, including participating for the first time in candidate debates next month. Whether he is able to solidify his status as the new front-runner, or whether it turns out to be a temporary response to the excitement generated by his entry into the race, will become apparent in future Gallup updates of Republicans’ nomination preferences.


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