Archive for August 30th, 2011
According to the latest Zogby Poll.
It is a Zogby Poll, which is somewhat unreliable, but even so what a big lead for Governor Rick Perry. Unless the Zogby Poll folks have really screwed up the sample, Perry really is the front-runner now – by a large margin.
One thing is positive: Two candidate race = Perry and Romney.
The rest are done.
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According to the lastest PPP Poll.
There might not be a state that betters symbolizes the fundamental shift that’s occurred in the Republican Presidential race over the last few months than South Carolina. When PPP last polled there in early June, Mitt Romney led everyone in the field by at least 15 points. But now with Rick Perry’s entry Romney has lost almost half of his support. That leaves Perry with a 20 point lead- he’s at 36% to 16% for Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.
Voters on the far right side of the Republican spectrum have been dying for a candidate they can call their own and Perry is filling that void. With folks describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ which is the largest segment of the GOP electorate in South Carolina, Perry’s at 44% to 14% for Bachmann, with Romney mired in single digits at 9%.
Now, we know why Romney is suddenly attending South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint’s Labor Day forum.
The entire poll is here.
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Jen Rubin has the news.
Right Turn has learned that, after several weeks of schedule adjustment, Mitt Romney will now appear at the candidate forum hosted by Sen. Jim DeMint in South Carolina. The Romney camp dismisses the suggestion that this is in response to Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s rise in the polls. Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul tells me: “We’re pleased we were able to arrange our schedule so that Gov. Romney can attend Labor Day events in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
With Texas Governor Rick Perry swamping Mitt Romney in the polls, Romney had to make an appearance. Why, he did not previously committ in South Carolina is anyone’s guess?
Remember these two will face off with the rest of the field, including Michele Bachmann next Wednesday at the Reagan Presidential Library here in California. The debate will be televised on MSNBC at 8 PM Eastern.
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Herman Cain and Rick Perry continue to generate strongly favorable impressions among Republicans familiar with them. Meanwhile, those familiar with Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul express less intensely positive opinions of those candidates now than at any point this year. The result is a clear separation of 12 percentage points between the top and middle tiers of Republican presidential candidates in Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score from Aug. 15-28 Gallup Daily tracking. The average Positive Intensity Scores show much smaller gaps between the current top- and middle-tier candidates.
Two potential candidates included in the measurement, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani, fall between the middle and top tiers, with current scores of 16 and 17, respectively.
Of all the candidates Gallup tracks, Jon Huntsman has the lowest score, 1. That is also his personal low, and he is one of four candidates, along with Romney, Bachmann, and Paul, to have a personal low in the current data. Newt Gingrich, still mired in the lower tier of candidates with Huntsman and Paul, has shown some improvement in his score in recent weeks, now 7 after descending to 1 at the end of July.
So, what does this all mean?
Texas Governor Rick Perry is solidfying his front-runner status in this race. Governor Perry is the CLEAR front-runner at this point.
Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann are starting to fade and the rest of the field are non-starters.
Game over for Perry – unless there is some monumental gaffe.
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 40% last week, tying his record-low 40% ratings for the two prior weeks that started on Aug. 8.
The Aug. 22-28 weekly average of Gallup Daily tracking includes Obama’s worst three-day average approval rating thus far in his presidency: 38% approval and 55% disapproval from Aug. 25-27. Gallup suspended Daily tracking on Aug. 28 because of the hurricane conditions affecting much of the East Coast.
Obama continues to receive broad support from blacks (83%); however, this is the third consecutive week he has earned less than majority support from Hispanics, and the current 44% — also registered the prior week — is his lowest from this group. Whites’ 32% average approval rating in each of the past two weeks is also a record low.
The demographic chart.
President Obama is between a rock and a hard spot with pandering to ethnic communities. If he delivers the political capital to one, he will alienate two others. Of course, this is what you reap when you play the race game and not the IDEA game.
So, what does this mean?
President Obama’s approval rating has leveled off at the low point of his presidency, averaging 40% for the third straight week. Notably, his approval rating among several groups that previously gave him strong majority support — postgraduates, Hispanics, 18- to 29-year-olds, and lower-income Americans — is now below the 50% threshold.
Obama is now midway through his 11th quarter in office. While his current 40% approval could be a troubling sign for him heading into the 2012 election, previous Gallup analysis has found that incumbent presidents’ ratings in their 12th and 13th quarters are much more indicative of their re-election prospects.
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