• Arnold Schwarzenegger,  California,  California Budget

    Michael Lewis: California and Bust

    Photograph Courtesy of Art Streiber

    Read all of Michael Lewis’ excellent piece on California government and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

    A ompelling book called Cal­ifornia Crackup describes this problem more generally. It was written by a pair of journalists and nonpartisan think-tank scholars, Joe Mathews and Mark Paul, and they explain, among other things, why Arnold Schwarze­neg­ger’s experience as governor was going to be unlike any other experience in his career: he was never going to win. California had organized itself, not accidentally, into highly partisan legislative districts. It elected highly partisan people to office and then required these people to reach a two-thirds majority to enact any new tax or meddle with big spending decisions. On the off chance that they found some common ground, it could be pulled out from under them by voters through the initiative process. Throw in term limits—no elected official now serves in California government long enough to fully understand it—and you have a recipe for generating maximum contempt for elected officials. Politicians are elected to get things done and are prevented by the system from doing it, leading the people to grow even more disgusted with them. “The vicious cycle of contempt,” as Mark Paul calls it. California state government was designed mainly to maximize the likelihood that voters will continue to despise the people they elect.

    But when you look below the surface, he adds, the system is actually very good at giving Californians what they want. “What all the polls show,” says Paul, “is that people want services and not to pay for them. And that’s exactly what they have now got.” As much as they claimed to despise their government, the citizens of California shared its defining trait: a need for debt. The average Californian, in 2011, had debts of $78,000 against an income of $43,000. The behavior was unsustainable, but, in its way, for the people, it works brilliantly. For their leaders, even in the short term, it works less well. They ride into office on great false hopes and quickly discover they can do nothing to justify those hopes.

  • Chris Christie,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 44% Vs. Obama 42% and Obama 44% Vs. Christie 43%



    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    One’s in the race and one’s contemplating a run, but for now Mitt Romney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are both essentially even with President Obama in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, with 44% of the vote to Obama’s 42%. Eight percent (8%) like another candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

    Obama wins 44% support, while Christie picks up 43% in their matchup. Six percent (6%) prefer a third option, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. However, just 26% believe the first-term governor is likely to run for the White House, and only 20% think he should seek the White House.

    Here is the breakdown for all of the other GOP candidates and President Obama.

    Not a bad first poll for Governor Christie and note the fall of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for September 29th through September 30th

    These are my links for September 29th through September 30th:

    • Why I’m liking Perry better than Romney – With three months remaining in 2011, and the presidential race firming up, I've spent a lot of time recently thnking about the respective candidates, their pros and cons, and who I would feel most comfortable supporting.  The reality is, I think we're going to be looking at a Perry-Romney showdown, when push comes to shove.  And in that context, it's pretty clear at this point to me that I'm in the Perry camp.

      I've had some people ask me why that is recently. I originally became known in the blogosphere for being a squishy moderate/squishy libertarian, and some people seem to see that as consistent with preferring Romney to Perry, if those are the choices.  So on a relatively quiet Friday, I figured I'd take a minute and spell it out, especially since reasons #1 and #2 are topical and in the news today.

    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-30 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-30 #tcot #catcot
    • Flap’s Links and Comments for September 29th on 09:07 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for September 29th on 09:07 #tcot #catcot
  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-30

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  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for September 29th on 09:07

    These are my links for September 29th from 09:07 to 21:41:

    • Gov. Rick Perry greeted by protestors in Charlotte – Texas Governor Rick Perry made a stop on his fundraising trail in Charlotte on Thursday, but it wasn't his supporters who made the most noise. Protestors took to the streets outside San Antonio’s Mexican Grill at SouthPark.
      It was anything but a southern hospitality welcome.
       
      "Rick Perry is the only candidate that signed in state tuition for illegal immigrants into law, " said William Gheen, President of Americans for Legal Immigration, or ALIPAC.
       
      “The reason that states have to deal with this is because of the failure of federal government," countered Gov. Perry.
       
      Texas signed a version of the Dream Act into law, allowing many undocumented students who grew up and received a high school education in the United States to receive in-state tuition for college, and Perry stood by his support for the issue.
       
      "The federal government demands we give them healthcare, we educate them.  So in Texas we've decided we want them to be part of the work force and not part of the problem," said Gov. Perry.
       
      But Gheen says it doesn't matter how long the kids have been in the U.S.  They shouldn't have the same rights as American students when it comes to education.
    • Rick Perry: My wife prodded me to enter presidential race – Speaking at a fundraising event for campaign donors in Beverly Hills, California on September 8th, Mr Perry praised his wife Anita, stating that "we grow beautiful women in Texas" and it was 45 years since they had first met at a piano recital near his home in Paint Creek, Texas.
      "And actually, the reason I'm standing before you is that, I was quite comfortable and happy being the governor of the state of Texas, and as she shared with me, 'You know, you're reasonably good at it'," he said.
      "But she said, 'You do not have the privilege to stand on the sidelines. Our country is in trouble and you have to do your duty'. And so honey I want to say thank you for prodding me across the line."
      Some of Mr Perry's detractors have said that he was pushed into running for president and that his poor debate performances reflect a lack of motivation. A senior adviser to Mitt Romney, the Texan's main rival, said that Mr Perry had embarked on "a careless candidacy prompted by his wife" and campaign consultants.
    • Why Romney Hasn’t Caught On – The New York Times and Washington Post both take a look at Mitt Romney's presidential campaign and wonder why he hasn't been able to excite Republican primary voters.

      First Read: "Yet here's one reason both articles don't really mention: his past positions on issues… Only six years ago, he supported abortion rights; in 1994, he sent a letter saying he'd be a stronger advocate for gay rights than Ted Kennedy; according to a 2006 article, he supported a path to citizenship for law-abiding illegal immigrants; he has said that his Massachusetts health-care law should be a model for other states; and he said back in June that humans have contributed to the world getting warmer — and that it's important to reduce emissions to combat that. All of those positions are anathema to conservatives. A question: Does this Republican electorate want to 'settle,' gravitate behind the most electable? When they've 'settled in the past, many conservative leaders have regretted it (see McCain or Dole or Bush 41)."

  • Gibson Guitars,  Lacey Act

    The Gibson Guitar Regulation FLAP

    “Gibson is a well-respected American company,” John Boehner said

    Come On! What is going on here?

    Last month’s federal raids on the company that makes Gibson electric guitars were a gift to Republicans who have spent years railing about more obscure issues like boiler MACT regulations and particulate emissions standards.

    Here, at last, was a controversy the average person could grasp: Overreaching regulators were out to kill rock ‘n’ roll.

    Still, House Republicans are having some trouble getting the issue to gain traction on the Hill.

    The Justice and Interior departments have rebuffed the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s request for a briefing on the Gibson raid, with the agencies refusing to comment on their ongoing investigation into the possible importation of illegally harvested ebony and other woods from countries such as Madagascar and India.

    Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.), chairwoman of the committee’s Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade Subcommittee, hasn’t scheduled a hearing on the raid but hasn’t ruled one out, said her senior adviser Ken Johnson.

    “American jobs are at stake, and Bono Mack hopes the Justice Department takes into account common sense and not just the letter of the law,” he said.

    The fight between the government and the Gibson Guitar Corp., maker of instruments such as the Gibson Les Paul, features some similarities with the GOP’s typical complaints about the Obama administration’s regulatory agenda — especially in the impact on jobs.

    “Gibson is a well-respected American company that employs thousands of people,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a speech this month to the Economic Club of Washington. “The company’s costs as a result of the raid? An estimated $2-3 million. Why? Because Gibson bought wood overseas to make guitars in America. Seriously.”

    Gibson CEO Henry Juszkiewicz sounded a similar theme when complaining to reporters about the roughly $1 million in wood and instruments that the federal agents seized in August from company facilities in Nashville and Memphis, Tenn.

    “We aren’t in the wrong, yet our entire operation has effectively been noticed to be shut down,” Juszkiewicz said during a news conference after the raid. “Over the last two years, we’ve hired 580 American workers. Just in the last two years. We’re one company that’s manufacturing in the U.S., hiring people and yet, the government is spending millions of dollars on this issue.”

    Home-state Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn further raised Juszkiewicz’s political profile by inviting him to be her guest during President Barack Obama’s Sept. 8 jobs speech to Congress.

    Blackburn is also scheduled to appear at an Oct. 8 “We Stand With Gibson” rally and concert that dozens of tea party, libertarian and other conservative groups are sponsoring in Nashville.

    The House needs to have the Obama Administration officials in for a little chat and Rep Mary Bono Mack should expedite the hearings as soon as possible. This is typical BS from the Feds and it has to stop harassing American businesses.

    Here is a piece on the original 2009 raid on Gibson guitars.

    Looks to me an easy solution will be to relocate the factory offshore and import into the USA, a finished product. I am sure some of those countries that export the wood would love to have a new factory in their country.

    I mean, how stupid is that because of a law first meant to regulate bird feathers in hats, the Lacey Act.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 45%, Obama 45% Vs. Paul 44%, Obama 50% Vs. Perry 43%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Mitt Romney’s return to the top of the GOP field is very good news for Republicans if they want to knock off Barack Obama next year.  Our newest Florida poll finds that Romney would be in a toss up with Obama in the critical swing state but that Perry trails Obama by 7 points, which would be the biggest margin of defeat for a Republican candidate in Florida since Harry Truman blew out Thomas Dewey in 1948.

    Obama’s not popular in Florida- only 46% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove.  His numbers with independents are particularly bad at 41/52 and there are twice as many Democrats who disapprove of him as there are Republicans who think he’s doing a good job.  His numbers look great compared to Perry though.  Only 29% of voters see him favorably to 58% with a negative opinion.  Independents split against him 22/61 and he’s already established himself as the candidate Democrats hate the most with 83% giving him a negative rating.  Social Security’s a big issue in Florida and only 25% of voters agree with Perry’s statement that it’s a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ to 63% who disagree with his point of view.

    Perry trails Obama 50-43, including a 53-40 deficit with independents.  Other Republicans make it very close though.  Romney trails only 46-45 and Ron Paul actually does just as well, trailing 45-44.  58% of undecideds in the Obama/Romney match and 72% in the Obama/Paul match disapprove of the President’s job performance so odds are those folks would split against him in the end and put the state into the GOP column.  This may be the most positive poll for Paul that we’ve ever conducted- he leads by 15 points with independents even as the rest of the Republican candidates trail Obama with that voting group. The problem for Paul is that independents like him a lot more than Republicans do and that puts his chances for the nomination at slim to none…but he might really be able to make a dent if he ended up running as an independent instead.

    Continuing evidence that Rick Perry crashed and burned in the Florida debate.

    The GOP Presidential nominee needs to win Florida and they are within range with Romney.

    It looks like Perry has sunk so fast and deeply in the polls that he may be done.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 27% Vs. Cain 25% Vs. Perry 13%

    According to the latest Survey USA Poll.

    In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12,

    Romney is strong among older voters, women, moderates and in Southeast Florida. Cain is strong among men, younger voters, Tea Party members, affluent voters and in Northeast Florida. Perry is strong among those who say they are “very conservative,” among those who attend religious services regularly, among Evangelicals and in Northwest Florida.

    Newt Gingrich at 6%, and Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, effectively tie for 4th place. Jon Huntsman, in 7th place, finishes ahead of Rick Santorum.

    Interviews for this survey were conducted 09/24/11 through 09/27/11, in the days immediately after Cain won the Florida Straw Poll on 09/24/11, and in the week following televised debates in Tampa and Orlando. The results may reflect a genuine surge for Cain or may reflect the fact Cain was on the front page of every Florida newspaper on Sunday 09/25/11 and at the top of many Florida newscasts during the field period for the survey. More clear is that Romney emerges from the 2 Florida debates and the Florida Straw Poll with twice the support of Perry. Romney today has a Plus 36 favorability rating in Florida, 4 times greater than Perry, who has a Plus 8 favorability rating.

    Now, you know, why former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is considering a jump into the race. Rudy certainly could come in at least second in Florida while winning in the Northeast and Far West GOP primary elections.

  • President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Is There Room in the Race for Rudy Giuliani?

    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his wife Judith Nathan pay their respects at the north reflection pool near the bronze-etched names of the victims of the 9/11 terrorist attack on the National September 11 Memorial during a ceremony marking the 10th anniversary of the attacks at World Trade Center, Sunday, Sept. 11, 2011 in New York

    Yes, especially with the implosion of Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.

    Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

    One of the mayor’s closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

    “Jake said to me, ‘Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,'” Talarico told The Associated Press.

    Giuliani has visited the first-in-the-nation primary state four times already this year and advisers have maintained regular contact with potential staffers in the event he decides to seek the presidency. During his last trip in July, Giuliani said he wasn’t convinced any of the candidates were strong enough to defeat President Barack Obama. Until he is, he said he wouldn’t rule out a run of his own.

    Rudy has the executive experience, been battle tested and is no more moderate than Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Plus, unlike Rick Perry he can actually hold his own during a debate.

    On social issues, Giuliani is NOT a conservative, but a moderate. But, so is Romney. Rudy does not have the albatross of RomneyCare hanging around his heck.

    There is a path to the nomination, if the GOP will nominate a moderate on the social issues.

    But, it looks like they will anyway with Romney, if Rudy does not run.

    Compared to the rest of the field, Giuliani is definitely a top tier contender and one who can beat President Obama.