Archive for October, 2011
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These are my links for October 17th from 06:09 to 20:39:
- Douglas Schoen: Polling the Occupy Wall Street Crowd – President Obama and the Democratic leadership are making a critical error in embracing the Occupy Wall Street movement—and it may cost them the 2012 election.
Last week, senior White House adviser David Plouffe said that "the protests you're seeing are the same conversations people are having in living rooms and kitchens all across America. . . . People are frustrated by an economy that does not reward hard work and responsibility, where Wall Street and Main Street don't seem to play by the same set of rules." Nancy Pelosi and others have echoed the message.
Yet the Occupy Wall Street movement reflects values that are dangerously out of touch with the broad mass of the American people—and particularly with swing voters who are largely independent and have been trending away from the president since the debate over health-care reform.
The protesters have a distinct ideology and are bound by a deep commitment to radical left-wing policies. On Oct. 10 and 11, Arielle Alter Confino, a senior researcher at my polling firm, interviewed nearly 200 protesters in New York's Zuccotti Park. Our findings probably represent the first systematic random sample of Occupy Wall Street opinion.
Our research shows clearly that the movement doesn't represent unemployed America and is not ideologically diverse. Rather, it comprises an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence. Half (52%) have participated in a political movement before, virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals, and nearly one-third (31%) would support violence to advance their agenda.
The vast majority of demonstrators are actually employed, and the proportion of protesters unemployed (15%) is within single digits of the national unemployment rate (9.1%).
An overwhelming majority of demonstrators supported Barack Obama in 2008. Now 51% disapprove of the president while 44% approve, and only 48% say they will vote to re-elect him in 2012, while at least a quarter won't vote.
Fewer than one in three (32%) call themselves Democrats, while roughly the same proportion (33%) say they aren't represented by any political party.
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: 100 Year Old Man Sets Marathon Record – Wow, isn't this marvelous? To think I have another 40 years of running!:
- Dilbert October 17, 2011 – Sizzle » Flap’s California Blog – Oh those sizzling graphs….
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- Breaking: Obama opposes repeal of law so terrible that even his own team abandoned it – So attached is this guy to health-care boondoggles that he can’t bear to part with one that even his own HHS advisors admit is a catastrophe in the making.
Alas, fellow “Princess Bride” fans, it seems the CLASS Act is only … mostly dead.
President Obama is against repealing the health law’s long-term care CLASS Act and might veto Republican efforts to do so, an administration official tells The Hill, despite the government’s announcement Friday that the program was dead in the water.
“We do not support repeal,” the official said Monday. “Repealing the CLASS Act isn’t necessary or productive. What we should be doing is working together to address the long-term care challenges we face in this country.”
Over the weekend, The Hill has learned, an administration official called CLASS Act advocates to reassure them that Obama is still committed to making the program work. That official also told advocates that widespread media reports on the program’s demise were wrong, leaving advocates scratching their heads.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius announced Friday in a blog post on the liberal Huffington Post web site that the administration did not see a way to make the program sustainable. Sebelius indicated her agency hadn’t been able to figure out a way to ensure the program providing long-term care paid for itself as required by law.
In other words, it’s mathematically impossible to make the CLASS Act work, yet somehow The One’s going to make it work anyway. You’ll never find a sharper illustration of his basic approach to fiscal reality than you’re seeing right here.
- The Tea Party is undermining its own influence – The Tea Party is on solid ground with its embrace of debt reduction and determination to root out ObamaCare and crony capitalism. But its infatuation with incendiary rhetoric and with candidates who give off the whiff of crackpottery is undermining its mission and its importance in candidate selection.
Here are some danger signs: The candidate finds civil rights law unnecessary or oppressive. The candidate is obsessed with MSM coverage of him or his ideas. The candidate proposes that one or more political opponents have committed treason and/or should go to jail. The candidate labels all deal making as a sell out. The candidate is nostalgic for pre-New Deal governance. The candidate (if for president) pooh-poohs the need for substantive knowledge of or experience in national security. Such a candidate is telling the hardcore base what it wants to hear and turning off nearly everyone else. An unprepared or ignorant candidate is heading for a train wreck.
In short, Tea Partyers need to rethink their criteria for high offices. They should recognize that inexperience, ignorance, and obnoxiousness are not virtues. They are danger signs. And if they don’t like the 2012 nominee, they should, in the future, set about finding as verbally polished and technically impressive a candidate as Romney.
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Vaccines Being Developed to Prevent or Treat Addiction – Vaccines Being Developed to Prevent or Treat Addiction
- Occupying Wall Street Energy Primarily a “LEFT” Coast Affair | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Occupying Wall Street Energy Primarily a “LEFT” Coast Affair #tcot #catcot
- Untitled (http://www.insideradvantage.com/) – President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 39% Vs. Cain 24% Vs. Paul 11% Vs. Gingrich 5% Vs. Perry 2%:
- CA-24: Rep Elton Gallegly Third Quarter Fundraising Report Reveals $800K Cash on Hand | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-24: Rep Elton Gallegly Third Quarter Fundraising Report Reveals $800K Cash on Hand #tcot #catcot
- Poll Watch: 50% Favor Legalization of Marijuana | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Poll Watch: 50% Favor Legalization of Marijuana #tcot #catcot
- California Law Limits E-Verify and Supports Illegal Immigrant Hiring Practices » Flap’s California Blog – California Law Limits E-Verify and Supports Illegal Immigrant Hiring Practices
- Occupy Wall Street: Who is Behind the Protests? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – RE: With all due respect, you have some valid points and many rants/complaints.
What do you propose to change? Spec…
- Day By Day October 17, 2011 – Worth | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Chris Muir and Day By Day discuss the realignment of the Republican Party.:
- Occupy Wall Street: Who is Behind the Protests? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Occupy Wall Street: Who is Behind the Protests? | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
- Untitled (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/10/17/oct17.poll.pdf) – RT @ByronYork: New CNN poll: Romney 26%, Cain 25%, Perry 13%. Romney up 5% from month ago, Cain up 19%, Perry down 19%.
- Occupy Wall Street: Who is Behind the Protests? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – RE: I am wondering why your Occupy group is not protesting President Obama. He is the biggest corporist there is in t…
- Cold Sore FAQ’s | Josie Dovidio, DDS – RT @SimiDentist: All your questions about cold sores answered! Check back next week for how to treat cold sores
- Untitled (http://static.mgnetwork.com/rtd/pdfs/20111016_poll.pdf) – President 2012 GOP Virginia Poll watch: Romney 44% Vs. Cain 12% Vs. Perry 10%
- President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States #tcot #catcot
- Poll Watch: Unhealthy American Workers Cost $135 Billion a Year in Lost Productivity | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Poll Watch: Unhealthy American Workers Cost $135 Billion a Year in Lost Productivity
- (500) http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/rulings/promise-broken/ – Obama's Broken Promises – Promise Broken rulings on the The Obameter: #tcot
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: October 17, 2011 – The Morning Drill: October 17, 2011
- DeMint office denies Romney endorsement story – According to Roll Call’s “knowledgeable GOP sources,” conservative stalwart Senator Jim DeMint may endorse Mitt Romney for President:
DeMint, who endorsed the former Massachusetts governor in 2008, made clear in an interview late last week that he has made no decisions on whom he will support in the 2012 primary. But Republican operatives familiar with the DeMint-Romney relationship and privy to the conservative Senator’s private assessment of the GOP field believe Romney is the most likely candidate to receive the backing of the tea party favorite.
“Jim is far more likely to endorse Mitt than anyone else currently in the race,” a Republican with South Carolina ties said. “Jim is a business guy and that’s his background. He’s not really the good ol’ boy conservative type. So Mitt in a lot of ways is a more comfortable fit for him.”
“Jim actually likes Romney,” added a GOP operative based in the Palmetto State. “I think, politically, he had some doubts about his ability to engage conservatives, but it would not surprise me for Jim to endorse Romney at some point.”
According to my knowledgeable on-the-record source Wesley Denton, DeMint’s spokesman, the story is a “fabrication”:
“That story is a fabrication made up of anonymous sources that obviously have no clue what Senator DeMint is thinking. He has said over and over again that he is not leaning toward any candidate yet and may end up not endorsing in the presidential race.”
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: October 17, 2011 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: October 17, 2011
- Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Decreases Sharply in Early October to 8.3% – But….. | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Decreases Sharply in Early October to 8.3% – But….. #tcot #catcot
- Flap’s Links and Comments for October 14th through October 17th | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for October 14th through October 17th #tcot #catcot
- FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Top Headlines from ……:
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, DeMint, Obamacare, Occupy, Pinboard Links, Polling, Romney, Tea_Party
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Nate Silver of the New York Times has this analysis.
The nascent movement known as Occupy Wall Street had its largest single day of protests on Saturday. And a funny thing happened: most of the action was far from Wall Street itself.
No, I don’t mean at Zuccotti Park — which is not, technically, on Wall Street. Nor do I mean Times Square — all of 19 minutes away from Wall Street on the ‘C’ train — where large crowds of protesters gathered on Saturday.
Instead I mean Europe, where crowds in cities like Rome, Barcelona and Madrid were estimated at 200,000 to 500,000 per city (more, probably, than the protests in the United States combined). And I mean California and other parts of the western United States, where crowds were proportionately much larger than in the Northeast or elsewhere in the country.
Leaving aside Europe, where the Occupy protests merged, not always seamlessly, with those sponsored by left-wing groups, the distribution of protests throughout the United States may reveal something about the political orientation of the protesters.
Yep, from the West – where there is higher unemployment as well.
Read it all.
Tags: Occupy Wall Street
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California Congressional District 24
Third quarter fundraising reports are out and Rep. Elton Gallegly, my Congressman, reports over $823 K cash on hand.
- Contributions: $229,221
- Expenditures: $157,407
- Cash on Hand: $823,988
- Debt: $0
Here are possible candidates, who may indeed challenge the long-time Republican incumbent.
- Steve Bennett – Ventura County Supervisor (D), Ventura
- Richard Francis – Former Ventura City Councilman (D)
- David Pollock – Moorpark City councilman (D)
- David Cruz Thayne – Westlake Village Businessman, tennis coach
Here is the poop on the district:
Gallegly saw his home drawn into Buck McKeon’s district, but he has represented Ventura County for years. With the additional of Democratic coastal communities in Ventura County added to this district and a resurgence of Democrats in the county this district is very competitive. Gallegly has been rumored to be retiring and this district may just push him over the edge. Democrats have 6-point registration advantage, Obama won this district by 16-points, but Brown lost it by 1-point. GOP state Senator Tony Strickland is looking at running here, though the district is competitive, there are no term limits.
With this fundraising activity, Gallegly is not laying down or looking like a retirement is imminent. He is active in GOP circles in the district and is home most weekends. Elton would either have to live just outside the district or move a few miles to be within the CA-24 borders.
However, he is widely know throughout Ventura County, having represented most of the CA-24 for decades.
I look for Elton to run for re-election, barring any health problems. If he doesn’t, look for California State Senator Tony Strickland to enter the race. Tags: CA-24, Elton Gallegly, Tony Strickland
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
A record-high 50% of Americans now say the use of marijuana should be made legal, up from 46% last year. Forty-six percent say marijuana use should remain illegal.
When Gallup first asked about legalizing marijuana, in 1969, 12% of Americans favored it, while 84% were opposed. Support remained in the mid-20s in Gallup measures from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, but has crept up since, passing 30% in 2000 and 40% in 2009 before reaching the 50% level in this year’s Oct. 6-9 annual Crime survey.
According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, “Marijuana is the most commonly abused illicit drug in the United States.” The National Survey on Drug Use and Health in 2009 found that “16.7 million Americans aged 12 or older used marijuana at least once in the month prior to being surveyed, an increase over the rates reported in all years between 2002 and 2008.”
It has been made essentially legal here in California with the medicinal marijuana laws and the decriminalizing of personal possession. If you are caught tomorrow here with a small amount, you will be guilty of an infraction and have to pay a $100 fine.
Over the weekend, it was announced the California Medical Association called for the legalization of marijuana.
Eventually, in a generation or two, pot may be legalized, but like alcohol and tobacco there are problems with the drug. The voting public will have to weigh the negative effects of the inebriation versus the benefits of the high.
Here is a chart of the polling demograhics:
Tags: Marijuana, Polling
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The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
Well, DUH.
In addition to his bus trip this week through North Carolina and Virginia, the Wall Street Journal notes President Obama will “will visit another key region, the Mountain West, next week, where Hispanic voters helped put Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the president’s column in 2008.”
“The focus on both regions is meant to give the president multiple routes to victory and to reduce his dependence on Ohio and Florida, the giant electoral prizes that have long defined presidential politics. The Obama campaign still plans to fight for both, but its climb has become steeper, as polls show that many working-class white voters have soured on the president.”
” “A campaign official noted that if Mr. Obama were to win all the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, he would claim an Electoral College majority in 2012 if he could win both North Carolina and Virginia, or one of those states plus Colorado and Nevada. Democrats won none of those states in 2000 or 2004, but Mr. Obama won all four in 2008.”
Just look at the Electoral College map.
President Obama will have a difficult time winning in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, according to recent polls. Nevada will also be a stretch for Obama (the economy has been devastated there), particularly if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.
Colorado is doable for the President, but if he loses all of the rest, he is toast.
If Nevada, in the below map, goes to Obama then the race would be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives would decide who the next President is (likely GOP).
You can go over here and run the numbers and scenarios.
Tags: Electoral College, President 2012
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