Archive for October, 2011
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-October — down sharply from 8.7% at the end of September and 9.2% at the end of August. A year ago, Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate stood at 10.0%. While seasonal hiring patterns may explain some of this improvement, the drop suggests the government could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.
And, underemployment is down sharply.
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is thus at 17.5% in mid-October, down sharply from 18.3% at the end of September — and its lowest measurement of the year.
The Chart.
But, Gallup polling is not the government and they issue their poll with caveats.
Gallup’s mid-month U.S. unemployment report covers the same period the government uses to collect data for its October unemployment report, which will be released on the first Friday in November. As a result, Gallup’s data lead the government’s report by several weeks. Modeling based on statistical comparisons of Gallup’s unemployment and job creation data to the government’s seasonally adjusted data over time suggests that the Bureau of Labor Statistics could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.
The sharp drop in Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment rates may partly result from seasonal factors. Halloween has become the third-largest sales season for many retailers, who are likely increasing their staffing accordingly. In addition, some stores may have been minimally staffed and are beginning early to add employees for the holidays. The surge on Wall Street during early October may also have provided some relief for business owners as they evaluate the prospects of the U.S. economy and their potential sales. Whatever the reasons, Gallup’s Job Creation Index tends to confirm this improvement in the job market because it has been near its highs for the year in early October.
Of course, the precipitous and counterintuitive nature of this sharp improvement in the U.S. job market, as measured by Gallup over the past couple of weeks, means it could be something of an aberration that will dissipate during the weeks ahead. It might even have been missed if not for Gallup’s Daily tracking. But for now, this job market improvement appears real — and, in turn, that implies the Main Street economy may be somewhat stronger than Wall Street generally perceives.
So, while this is good news about the American economy it may be too soon to cheer and may be short-lived at that.
Tags: Polling, Unemployment Rate
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These are my links for October 14th through October 17th:
- DeMint May Endorse Romney – Mitt Romney is the favorite to receive Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-S.C.) much-sought-after endorsement in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to knowledgeable GOP sources.
DeMint, who endorsed the former Massachusetts governor in 2008, made clear in an interview late last week that he has made no decisions on whom he will support in the 2012 primary. But Republican operatives familiar with the DeMint-Romney relationship and privy to the conservative Senator's private assessment of the GOP field believe Romney is the most likely candidate to receive the backing of the tea party favorite.
"Jim is far more likely to endorse Mitt than anyone else currently in the race," a Republican with South Carolina ties said. "Jim is a business guy and that's his background. He's not really the good ol' boy conservative type. So Mitt in a lot of ways is a more comfortable fit for him."
"Jim actually likes Romney," added a GOP operative based in the Palmetto State. "I think, politically, he had some doubts about his ability to engage conservatives, but it would not surprise me for Jim to endorse Romney at some point."
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Probably likely and soon…
- David Axelrod, Obama Strategist, Slams Mitt Romney for Changing Positions – Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod slammed Mitt Romney for changing positions on major issues throughout his political career, questioning the "core principles" of the presumptive front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
"I think there's this question about what his core principles are," Axelrod said, citing changes in Romney's positions from earlier in his political career when he was running for U.S. Senate and Massachusetts governor. "Then he was a pro choice, pro gay rights, pro environmental candidate for office. Then he decided to run for president. Did a 180 on all of that."
"So time and time and time again he shifts – and you get the feeling that there is no principle too large for him to throw over in pursuit of political office," Axelrod added.
Axelrod has recently turned a laser-like focus to Romney, holding a conference call last Wednesday to critique Romney's record and his remarks at last Tuesday's GOP debate.
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Flip – Flop Mitt – the argument against Romney
- Journolist 2.0: OccupyDC Emails Show MSM, Dylan Ratigan, Working With Protesters To Craft Message – Big Journalism has learned that the Occupy Washington DC movement is working with well-known media members to craft its demands and messaging while these media members report on the movement. Someone has made the emails from the Occupy D.C. email distro public and searchable. The names in the list are a veritable who’s who in media.
Journolist 2.0 includes well known names such as MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan, Rolling Stone’s Matt Tiabbi who both are actively participating; involvement from other listers such as Bill Moyers and Glenn Greenwald plus well-known radicals like Noam Chomsky, remains unclear. The list also includes a number of Occupy organizers, such as one of the Occupy Wall Street main organizers Kevin Zeese.
In these emails we see MSNBC’s Ratigan, hawking his book in the footnotes, instructing occupiers on how properly to present their demands and messages while simultaneously appearing on television reporting “objectively” on the story (when he’s not taking part in the protests himself as content.)
- (500) http://flapsblog.com/2011/10/17/flap-twitter-updates-for-2011-10-17/ – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-17 #tcot #catcot
- Chuck DeVore Quits California – Moves to Texas | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Chuck DeVore Quits California – Moves to Texas #tcot #catcot
- Coronary Heart Disease Rates Have Decreased Says the CDC | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Coronary Heart Disease Rates Have Decreased Says the CDC
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Dayton Veterans Administration Dental Whistleblower Killed in Car Accident – Probably nothing to it – just an accident but….:
- California Medical Association Calls for Legalization of Marijuana » Flap’s California Blog – California Medical Association Calls for Legalization of Marijuana
- Dilbert October 16, 2011 – Incentive » Flap’s California Blog – Dilbert October 16, 2011 – Incentive
- Day By Day October 16, 2011 – Back to School | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day October 16, 2011 – Back to School #tcot #catcot
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-16 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-16 #tcot #catcot
- foursquare – Post 8 miler with LA Roadrunners – with Alice, Tara and Nancy (@ Ronnie's Diner)
- Twitpic – Share photos and videos on Twitter – Off soon 4 Los Angeles Marathon training with LA Roadrunners in Venice, California – 8 easy miles & Ronnie's
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-15 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-15 #tcot #catcot
- Presidential primary poll in NV shows Romney and Cain close, rest far behind – Politics: Ralston’s Flash – Las Vegas Sun – RT @RalstonFlash: Presidential primary poll in NV shows Romney and Cain close, rest far behind
- Chuck DeVore – RT @ScottWGraves: Chuck DeVore: Good-bye, California, I'm going to Texas… #tcot #teaparty
- Flap’s Links and Comments for October 13th through October 14th | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for October 13th through October 14th #tcot #catcot
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, #teaparty, Axelrod, DeMint, MSM, Obama, Occupy, Pinboard Links, Ratigan, Romney
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Former California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore
Maybe it is a case of a good job, the grass is greener over the next hill or political opportunities. In any case, former California Republican Assenblyman and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore is moving from California to Texas.
Former GOP Assemblyman and U.S. Senate hopeful Chuck DeVore has given up his Orange County supervisor bid to move his family to Texas. While caring for aging parents was one factor in the move, the Irvine Republican also blamed California’s economic climate, writing in a statement on his website that he’s “found it hard to earn enough to support my family” since leaving office last year.
“My old aerospace clientele has fled to greener, less-expensive pastures Combined with the drain on our savings caused by six years of public service in the Assembly, we have come to the reluctant conclusion that it is time to move,” DeVore wrote.
DeVore has accepted a new job as a visiting scholar at the nonprofit Texas Public Policy Foundation, where he will write a book on “the Texas Model of how low taxes and low government spending, a light and predictable regulatory environment, respect for property rights, and a business-friendly legal climate has turned Texas into America’s jobs generating dynamo.”
He won’t be the only California transplant working for the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Joshua Treviño, a former legislative and campaign aide to DeVore, serves as the institute’s director of communications.
Well, Chuck burned his bridges in his U.S. Senate race against Carly Fiorina and his ol’ buddy Trevino left California for the Texas Public Policy Foundation after DeVore lost. So, perhaps this move is just a former employee helping his boss out getting a job.
I suspect it is more than this though.
DeVore had no where to go in California politics and he wants to run and hoild public office again.
DeVore is just a POL who wants to start anew.
Good luck, Chuck.
Tags: Chuck DeVore, Josh Trevino
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