A year out from Election Day 2012, NBC’s battleground map shows that the presidential contest is shaping up to be VERY competitive and potentially VERY close; think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states. According to the map, 196 electoral votes are in the Democratic column, while 195 are in the GOP column. And 147 electoral votes are considered a toss-up. The map also shows the toll the past summer took on President Obama: In April, it was 232 Dem, 191 GOP, with 115 toss-up.
- Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
- Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)
- Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)
- Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)
- Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)
- Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)
- Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)
The fact is some of the key battleground states which I have been writing about since the beginning of 2011 have swung to the GOP and there remain just a few battlegrounds. One of these states must be won by President Obama in order to win the Presidency. These states are: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.
Here is my map which will reflect the Electoral College votes if the Presidential electionwere held today. This is an accurate representation of the polling data I have seen and will likely be the result of next November’s election.
So, the GOP will concentrate its campaign resources into probably six states, depending upon who the nominee is – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. It is in these states where the race for the Presidency will be run.
And, as of today, the Republican candidate wins the Presidency 275 Vs. 263.
If you, the reader, would like to test other Electoral College vote scenarios, go here to this interactive website.