- FLORIDA: Obama 42 – Romney 45
- OHIO: Obama 45 – Romney 42
- PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 44 – Romney 43
One year before the presidential election, President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the three states that for the past half-century have predicted the presidential winner, according to the first Quinnipiac University “Swing State Poll” of the 2012 cycle released today. The president leads the other top GOP contenders, although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term. Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.
In my Electoral College likley scenario above, I already have Romney (the likely nominee) beating Obama in Ohio and Florida. Pennsylvania is a bit of a surprise.
If Pennsylvania goes to Romney, then Obama loses in other states too. But, it is early and I predict Obama will win Pennsylvania.
The race will be close, but if the election were today, Romney could win in the Electoral College.