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GOP Presidential Primary delegates The Morning Flap: December 9, 2011

From the Crystal Ball

These are my links for December 8th through December 9th:

  • THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL FIELD MAY NOT BE CLOSED – Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

    In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

    But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

    This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.

    But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

    Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.

  • The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above – Two of my favorite analysts, Rhodes Cook and Josh Putnam, have a good debate going about just how plausible it is that a Republican who is not currently running for president could enter the race later and potentially win it (probably necessitating a brokered convention). Those of you who follow my Twitter feed will know that I think Mr. Cook has the stronger side of the argument; I think there is a small but nontrivial chance that the Republican nominee could be someone like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie. (In fact, I was speculating about these scenarios as long as a month ago.)

    I’m not going to describe the means by which this would occur; Mr. Cook covers that in great detail. Instead, I’m more interested in the motive.

  • Twitter Halls of Fame and Shame : JIMROMENESKO.COM – Twitter has a way of making heroes and villains of people — those who earn “15 minutes of fame” because of the medium and others (far more of them at this point) who sully their reputations by tweeting before they think. I’ve created two Tumblr blogs to document this cultural phenomenon for posterity:

    Twitter Hall of Fame: http://twitterfame.tumblr.com/
    Twitter Hall of Shame: http://twittershame.tumblr.com/

  • Amazon starts row with retailers in US - – The row has broken out only days after James Daunt, the managing director of Waterstone’s, criticised Amazon – calling it a “ruthless, money-making devil”.

    The new Amazon Price Check app and promotion, which is starting from this Saturday, will allow people to perform a price check on an item in a shop, by scanning in the bar code using the app on their iPhone or Android device. The online retail giant will then offer a $5 discount to shoppers who carry out this market research for it for free, on any item across the site, including the same item they wanted to buy in the first place.

    The American Retail Industry Leaders’ Association issued the following statement about Amazon’s attempt to poach shoppers at the point of sale: “Retailers compete on price 365 days a year, and at no time is that competition hotter than during the make-or-break holiday shopping season. However, by continuing to evade collecting state sales taxes, Amazon’s exploitation of a pre-Internet tax loophole is resulting in a 6-10 percent perceived price advantage over their competitors on Main Street.

  • Trump might scrub his GOP presidential debate – Business mogul Donald Trump said Friday he might scrub a presidential debate that so far has drawn only Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

    Trump, the reality television star who has not ruled out an independent White House bid, had hoped for all of the Republican candidates to join in a debate he would moderate Dec. 27 in Iowa. Most have decided not to, leaving only Gingrich, a former House speaker, and Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator.

    “I have to look into it,” Trump told Fox Business Network when asked whether he would host a two-candidate debate.

    Trump was most indignant about Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann skipping out.

  • Gingrich Is Inspiring—and Disturbing – I had a friend once who amused herself thinking up bumper stickers for states. The one she made up for California was brilliant. “California: It’s All True.” It is so vast and sprawling a place, so rich and various, that whatever you’ve heard about its wildness, weirdness and wonders, it’s true.

    That’s the problem with Newt Gingrich: It’s all true. It’s part of the reason so many of those who know him are anxious about the thought of his becoming president. It’s also why people are looking at him, thinking about him, considering him as president.

    Ethically dubious? True. Intelligent and accomplished? True. Has he known breathtaking success and contributed to real reforms in government? Yes. Presided over disasters? Absolutely. Can he lead? Yes. Is he erratic and unreliable as a leader? Yes. Egomaniacal? True. Original and focused, harebrained and impulsive—all true.

  • NLRB Labor board withdraws Boeing complaint – The National Labor Relations Board has officially dropped its high-profile case challenging Boeing’s decision to open a nonunion plant in South Carolina.

    The move Friday came after the Machinists union approved a 4-year contract extension with Boeing earlier this week and agreed to withdraw its charge that the company violated labor laws.

    Lafe Solomon, the agency’s acting general counsel, says settlement is the outcome he had always preferred. The agency settles about 90 percent of its cases.

    Under the deal, Boeing promised to build the new version of the 737 in Washington state and the Machinists agreed to drop allegations that Boeing opened the South Carolina plant in retaliation for previous strikes.

    Despite intense criticism of the case, Solomon says he was following the law and would do it again.

  • (500) http://flapsblog.com/2011/12/09/flap-twitter-updates-for-2011-12-09-2/ – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-09 #tcot #catcot
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011 – The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011
  • Putin slams Clinton for encouraging protesters – Prime Minister Vladimir Putin strongly criticized U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday, accusing her of encouraging and funding Russians protesting election fraud, and warned of a wider Russian crackdown on dissent.

    By describing Russia’s parliamentary election as rigged, Putin said Clinton “gave a signal” to his opponents.

    “They heard this signal and with the support of the U.S. State Department began their active work,” Putin said in televised remarks. He said the United States is spending “hundreds of millions” of dollars to influence Russian politics with the aim of weakening a rival nuclear power.

  • Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate – Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate #tcot #catcot #fb
  • President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obama Struggles | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obam… #tcot #catcot
  • California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today » Flap’s California Blog – California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today
  • News from The Associated Press – RT @AP: Romney campaign switches strategy with broadside against Gingrich, as rival rises in the polls #GOP: -ldh
  • The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 #tcot #catcot
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