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According to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll.

This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.

In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.

That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.

Nothing really new here, except that both Romney and Gingrich both lead Obama. The key battleground states to my analysis are really just 4: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

This is my view of how the Electoral College Map will look at the end of the race for 2012:

All of the pundits, including Gallup and USA Today above can talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Wisconsin. But, who cares?

All the GOP Presidential candidate has to do is hold the “RED States” and win the top four battleground swing states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

But, watch out for Nevada because if it goes blue, there would be a tie. Whoever then controls the House would then decide who the President is.

This is where the polling should be concentrated and forget the rest. My best guess is that the GOP candidate, whoever it might be will be able to win in these states due to voter disenchantment with the President. Barring a MAJOR GAFFE, the GOP is looking good to recapture the White House – if the election were held today.

I look forward to seeing the state by state polls of hypothetical match-ups. You know, the White House and the RNC have them and track them daily.

Just watch the campaign itinerary of the President and you will get a sense as to who is ahead and where.

Good luck, Damon. The cool $ million will be a good start……