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President 2012 Poll Watch: Gingrich and Romney Both Beating Obama in Key Battleground Swing States
According to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll.This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.
But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.
In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.
That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.
Nothing really new here, except that both Romney and Gingrich both lead Obama. The key battleground states to my analysis are really just 4: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.
This is my view of how the Electoral College Map will look at the end of the race for 2012:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
All of the pundits, including Gallup and USA Today above can talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Wisconsin. But, who cares?
All the GOP Presidential candidate has to do is hold the “RED States” and win the top four battleground swing states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.
But, watch out for Nevada because if it goes blue, there would be a tie. Whoever then controls the House would then decide who the President is.
This is where the polling should be concentrated and forget the rest. My best guess is that the GOP candidate, whoever it might be will be able to win in these states due to voter disenchantment with the President. Barring a MAJOR GAFFE, the GOP is looking good to recapture the White House – if the election were held today.
I look forward to seeing the state by state polls of hypothetical match-ups. You know, the White House and the RNC have them and track them daily.
Just watch the campaign itinerary of the President and you will get a sense as to who is ahead and where.
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Day By Day December 12 and December 13, 2011 – Temptation and Smoke’em
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@Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-13
- More on the journalists-aren’t-bloggers ruling http://t.co/75lHGSIj #
- More on the journalists-aren’t-bloggers ruling http://t.co/834sJYXc #
- Sperm-donor kept wife in the dark – donated to gay couples http://t.co/jIUMmoR2 #
- Sarah Palin Pitching New Reality Show About Husband Todd's Snowmobile Adventures http://t.co/Ais2MMJH #
- President 2012: Michael Savage Offers Newt Gingrich a Cool $ Million to Drop Out http://t.co/U38UZb6d #tcot #catcot #
- California Now Allowing Text Message Political Contributions http://t.co/gEdJXCl4 #
- The Morning Flap: December 12, 2011 | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/IvpYBy20 #
- Gingrich Ahead in Iowa by Double-Digits http://t.co/hibAkTg9 #
- U.S. Supreme Court blocks court-drawn Texas map in win for Republicans http://t.co/ChMCe1yp #
- Supreme Court to decide Arizona immigration law http://t.co/DXH9SlDZ #
- BuzzFeed Adds Politico Writer – Ben Smith http://t.co/YiSjTRXr #
- The Morning Flap: December 12, 2011 http://t.co/2xKaxHWA #tcot #catcot #
- In Women, Smoking is Closely Associated With Squamous Cell Carcinoma http://t.co/xQ5V7nGq #
- The Morning Drill: December 12, 2011 http://t.co/cacJ3n7q #
- Gingrich Ahead in Iowa by Double-Digits http://t.co/kxwLLGiI #
- Rick Perry going for broke in Iowa with 3 weeks to go http://t.co/NFaRIsiW #
- Record 64% Rate Honesty, Ethics of Members of Congress Low http://t.co/PbHe78T7 #
- Under fire for bet, Mitt Romney recalls more austere times http://t.co/NMnXKm1V #
- William Jefferson Appeal Could Weaken Corruption Statute http://t.co/89VdmlfY #
- President 2012: Rick Perry calls 'Solynda' a country http://t.co/DhkarUc4 #
- President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Gingrich Opens Up Large Leads in Florida and South Carolina http://t.co/KAIgK8xi #tcot #catcot #
- Day By Day December 11, 2011 – Taking the Red Pill http://t.co/Y0nNrWT6 #tcot #catcot #
- Perry needs to quit embarassing the party and quit |"@thehill: Perry stumbles over Solyndra, calls it a country http://t.co/J7nIdM7o" #
- @DeanClancy Romney 10K Bet = GAFFE and Perry = WRONG. Folks should just read the passages and move on. in reply to DeanClancy #
- Not false| @DeanClancy PolitiFalse.Rick Perry loses the 10K bet|RT @politifact If they had actually bet, Mitt wd've won http://t.co/IXutdpo5 #
- @DeanClancy The passages are directly posted. Rick Perry loses Romney's 10K bet. in reply to DeanClancy #
- Rick Perry loses the 10K bet|RT @politifact If they had actually bet, Romney would have won the 10 grand. http://t.co/IXutdpo5 #
- Drinking Starbucks and listening to the Monday morning rain (@ Chez Cole) http://t.co/9JwxUjwi #
- I just unlocked the "School Night" badge on @foursquare! http://t.co/HH2Zw7Gi #
- Mitt goes negative|RT @ZekeJMiller Here's the Romney email header for the "WITH FRIENDS LIKE (NEWT) NANCY…" message http://t.co/882BCpNS #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-12 http://t.co/9WbfIRG2 #tcot #catcot #
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