Archive for December, 2011
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From the Crystal Ball
These are my links for December 8th through December 9th:
- THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL FIELD MAY NOT BE CLOSED – Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.
In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.
But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.
This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.
But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.
Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.
- The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above – Two of my favorite analysts, Rhodes Cook and Josh Putnam, have a good debate going about just how plausible it is that a Republican who is not currently running for president could enter the race later and potentially win it (probably necessitating a brokered convention). Those of you who follow my Twitter feed will know that I think Mr. Cook has the stronger side of the argument; I think there is a small but nontrivial chance that the Republican nominee could be someone like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie. (In fact, I was speculating about these scenarios as long as a month ago.)
I’m not going to describe the means by which this would occur; Mr. Cook covers that in great detail. Instead, I’m more interested in the motive.
- Twitter Halls of Fame and Shame : JIMROMENESKO.COM – Twitter has a way of making heroes and villains of people — those who earn “15 minutes of fame” because of the medium and others (far more of them at this point) who sully their reputations by tweeting before they think. I’ve created two Tumblr blogs to document this cultural phenomenon for posterity:
Twitter Hall of Fame: http://twitterfame.tumblr.com/
Twitter Hall of Shame: http://twittershame.tumblr.com/
- Amazon starts row with retailers in US - – The row has broken out only days after James Daunt, the managing director of Waterstone’s, criticised Amazon – calling it a “ruthless, money-making devil”.
The new Amazon Price Check app and promotion, which is starting from this Saturday, will allow people to perform a price check on an item in a shop, by scanning in the bar code using the app on their iPhone or Android device. The online retail giant will then offer a $5 discount to shoppers who carry out this market research for it for free, on any item across the site, including the same item they wanted to buy in the first place.
The American Retail Industry Leaders’ Association issued the following statement about Amazon’s attempt to poach shoppers at the point of sale: “Retailers compete on price 365 days a year, and at no time is that competition hotter than during the make-or-break holiday shopping season. However, by continuing to evade collecting state sales taxes, Amazon’s exploitation of a pre-Internet tax loophole is resulting in a 6-10 percent perceived price advantage over their competitors on Main Street.
- Trump might scrub his GOP presidential debate – Business mogul Donald Trump said Friday he might scrub a presidential debate that so far has drawn only Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
Trump, the reality television star who has not ruled out an independent White House bid, had hoped for all of the Republican candidates to join in a debate he would moderate Dec. 27 in Iowa. Most have decided not to, leaving only Gingrich, a former House speaker, and Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator.
“I have to look into it,” Trump told Fox Business Network when asked whether he would host a two-candidate debate.
Trump was most indignant about Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann skipping out.
- Gingrich Is Inspiring—and Disturbing – I had a friend once who amused herself thinking up bumper stickers for states. The one she made up for California was brilliant. “California: It’s All True.” It is so vast and sprawling a place, so rich and various, that whatever you’ve heard about its wildness, weirdness and wonders, it’s true.
That’s the problem with Newt Gingrich: It’s all true. It’s part of the reason so many of those who know him are anxious about the thought of his becoming president. It’s also why people are looking at him, thinking about him, considering him as president.
Ethically dubious? True. Intelligent and accomplished? True. Has he known breathtaking success and contributed to real reforms in government? Yes. Presided over disasters? Absolutely. Can he lead? Yes. Is he erratic and unreliable as a leader? Yes. Egomaniacal? True. Original and focused, harebrained and impulsive—all true.
- NLRB Labor board withdraws Boeing complaint – The National Labor Relations Board has officially dropped its high-profile case challenging Boeing’s decision to open a nonunion plant in South Carolina.
The move Friday came after the Machinists union approved a 4-year contract extension with Boeing earlier this week and agreed to withdraw its charge that the company violated labor laws.
Lafe Solomon, the agency’s acting general counsel, says settlement is the outcome he had always preferred. The agency settles about 90 percent of its cases.
Under the deal, Boeing promised to build the new version of the 737 in Washington state and the Machinists agreed to drop allegations that Boeing opened the South Carolina plant in retaliation for previous strikes.
Despite intense criticism of the case, Solomon says he was following the law and would do it again.
- (500) http://flapsblog.com/2011/12/09/flap-twitter-updates-for-2011-12-09-2/ – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-09 #tcot #catcot
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011 – The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011
- Putin slams Clinton for encouraging protesters – Prime Minister Vladimir Putin strongly criticized U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday, accusing her of encouraging and funding Russians protesting election fraud, and warned of a wider Russian crackdown on dissent.
By describing Russia’s parliamentary election as rigged, Putin said Clinton “gave a signal” to his opponents.
“They heard this signal and with the support of the U.S. State Department began their active work,” Putin said in televised remarks. He said the United States is spending “hundreds of millions” of dollars to influence Russian politics with the aim of weakening a rival nuclear power.
- Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate – Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate #tcot #catcot #fb
- President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obama Struggles | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obam… #tcot #catcot
- California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today » Flap’s California Blog – California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today
- News from The Associated Press – RT @AP: Romney campaign switches strategy with broadside against Gingrich, as rival rises in the polls #GOP: -ldh
- The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 #tcot #catcot
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, Amazon.com, Boeing, Clinton, fb, Gingrich, GOP, NLRB, Pinboard Links, President_2012, Putin, Russia, The Morning Flap, Trump, Twitter
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
About three-quarters of registered voters (76%) say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, the highest such percentage Gallup has measured in its 19-year history of asking this question. The 20% who say most members deserve to be re-elected is also a record low, by one percentage point.
This finding is from a Nov. 28-Dec. 1 Gallup poll, adding to the broad negativity toward Congress Americans have expressed this year. These include historically low congressional job approval ratings, low ratings of confidence in the legislative branch of government, and low ratings of confidence in Congress as an institution.
The 76% who say most members of Congress “do not deserve to be re-elected” is six points higher than the previous high of 70%, measured in August.
The trends on this measure have been progressively more negative since 2004. Voters were also more negative than positive in response to this measure through most of the early 1990s, but at least half of voters said most members deserved to be re-elected in Gallup polls conducted between 1998 and 2004.
A substantial majority of Republican (75%), independent (82%), and Democratic (68%) voters agree that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election — a sign of rare consensus about the legislative body in which both parties currently hold a leadership stake.
And, this finding is a surprise?
Not really…..
With redistricting in the states finishing up, the Presidential campaigns under full swing, more members of Congress may indeed decide to retire – on both sides of the aisle. I would not want to be an incument member of Congress, having to raise money and begging constituents to vote for them while the economy is mired in a recession.
I think voter sentiment in November 2012 will be throw them all out, including Obama.
Tags: Congress, Polling
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Posted by Flap in Day By Day
Day By Day by Chris Muir
Chris, the REAL problem are the LEFT-WING ideologues in the Obama Administration. A third party would shift enough Electoral College votes to assure an Obama victory.
While Romney and Gingrich are NOT conservative candidates, either of them would be far better than another four years or Obama and Holder. Tags: Day By Day
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Posted by Flap in Twitter
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Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at a town hall style event in the Staten Island borough of New York Saturday, Dec. 3, 2011
According to the latest Quinnipiac Polls in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. I don’t really call Pennsylvania a key battleground state since it is more than likely to be “blue” in 2012 anyway. But, Florida and Ohio are.
Florida GOP Primary:
In Florida, which will hold its potentially-pivotal primary on Jan. 31, Gingrich leads Romney, 35 percent to 22 percent, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and businessman Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign on Dec. 3, each at 8 percent. When Republicans are asked to choose between only Gingrich and Romney, the former speaker leads by a wider margin, 52 percent to 34 percent.
Gingrich’s 13-point lead against the full field is less than his 23-point advantage in a CNN/Time/ORC International poll released Wednesday. The CNN/Time/ORC poll was conducted among likely primary voters, while Quinnipiac surveyed all registered Republicans.
In the Florida general election:
- Romney – 45% Vs. Obama – 42%
- Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich 44%
Obama approval in Florida is at 41% vs. 54% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 33% vs. 57% disapprove and white voters approve 30% vs. 66% disapprove.
Ohio GOP Primary:
Ohio’s presidential primary is currently slated for June — though it may yet be moved to March. Gingrich leads Romney, 36 percent to 18 percent in the matchup with the full field, an advantage that grows to 27 points in a head-to-head contest.
In the Ohio general election:
- Romney – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%
- Gingrich – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%
Obama approval in Ohio is at 41% Vs. 55% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 38% Vs. 57%.
The full Quinnipiac Poll is here.
Tags: Polling, President 2012
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These are my links for December 7th through December 8th:
- The Associated Press: Study: Twitter users tough on Republicans, Obama – The 2012 presidential contenders have had a rough go of it on Twitter, according to an analysis of the political conversation taking place on the popular social network.
The study released Thursday by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found Twitter to be a hotbed of opinionated discussion about the campaign. But a majority of the candidates, including President Barack Obama, have received more negative than positive coverage on Twitter than in regular news coverage or blogs.
Among the findings:
—Texas Rep. Ron Paul has been more popular on Twitter than any of the other candidates, even though he’s received relatively limited press coverage. Fully 55 percent of tweets about Paul have been positive, the study found, compared with 15 percent that were negative.
—Negative tweets about the rest of the Republican field have outweighed positive tweets by at least a 2-1 margin. Obama has fared even worse, with negative assessments outweighing positive by a 3-1 margin.
—Tweets about three Republican candidates — Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign last Saturday — grew increasingly negative since October, the study found. Newt Gingrich, who has surged to the top of many polls in recent weeks, became the subject of more positive than negative tweets the week of Oct. 24.
—Obama far outpaced the Republican field in the number of tweets about him. The Democratic president was the subject of about 15 million mentions, compared with Cain, who was the subject of 2.1 million tweets. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, placed third with 1.5 million. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann was fourth with 1.4 million mentions.
—The study found the language used on Twitter to be “very personal and pungent and even profane … leveling allegations that would be off-limits in more traditional news coverage.”
- Gallup Poll Shows Narrowing Enthusiasm Gap – Republicans are less enthusiastic about voting for president in 2012, according to a new Gallup survey released early Thursday, suggesting that the turnout advantage they enjoyed in last year’s midterm elections may be waning.
Forty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 44 percent who say they are less enthusiastic. In a mid-September survey, 58 percent of Republicans were more enthusiastic, while just 30 percent said they were less enthusiastic.
While the gap may be narrowing, Democrats’ enthusiasm has not increased accordingly: 44 percent say they are more enthusiastic (compared to 45 percent in September), while 47 percent say they are less enthusiastic.
Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport posits that the closing of the enthusiasm gap — from 13 points to 5 — “could reflect the intensive and bruising battle” for the GOP presidential nomination and “the rapid rise and fall of various candidates” therein. But if enthusiasm among Republicans continues to decrease, it could have effects beyond the presidential election, potentially threatening the GOP’s ability to take control of the Senate and maintain or increase its majority in the House.
- Abramoff says Gingrich was lobbying – Disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff hit Republican presidential frontrunner Newt Gingrich for his claims that he did no lobbying on behalf of the mortgage and health care companies that paid him millions in consulting fees, calling the system of providing “strategic advice” corrupt.
“I don’t want to say he’s lying, he may believe what he’s saying, but people have to understand that lobbying isn’t just going to meet with members,” Abramoff said.
Abramoff served more than three years in prison following a conviction for corruption and fraud stemming from gifts he provided in exchange for votes to benefit Native American tribes and casinos.
- Democrats: Gingrich Negatives Could Mute Economy Negatives in 2012 – The suddenly plausible chance that Newt Gingrich could run against President Obama in next year’s election has Democratic strategists scrambling to determine which lines of attack would work best against the former speaker of the House.
Their ideas are split into two strategic camps: Focus on his congressional career, which was marked by partisanship and, at times, his embrace of very conservative positions, or, highlight Gingrich’s tumultuous personal history and uneven temperament.
A strategy focused on Gingrich the man would give Democrats a chance to shift the campaign away from a conversation about Obama’s handling of the economy, where he continues to receive low marks, to a battle of personalities. Gingrich’s history of adultery and his three marriages have already caused problems for him in the GOP primary, and those issues could linger into the fall. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released late last month showed that only 35 percent of a general-election audience holds a favorable view of him, while 42 percent hold an unfavorable view.
- DCCC Going On TV In OR-01 Special Election – Democrats Worried? – Anybody nervous?
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is buying television advertising in Oregon’s First Congressional District, an indication that the race to sew up ex-Rep. David Wu’s old seat may not be in the bag.
The Democratic ad attacks businessman Rob Cornilles (R) for alleged ties to the tea party movement, a theme that Democrats have been hammering throughout the special election. The ad buy will run beginning Thursday through the weekend, at a cost of $124,280 — a significant investment in the Portland media market.
“In this environment, we’re not taking anything for granted especially when the Republican is an untrustworthy self-funder who is trying to rewrite his extreme Tea Party positions,” a DCCC spokeswoman said.
The Democratic nominee, former state Sen. Suzane Bonamici, is up with her own advertisement, a positive ad that features Bonamici meeting voters and railing against debt and subsidies for oil companies. Bonamici’s ad was produced by Dixon Davis Media, the prominent Washington-based firm.
- Transcript of Washington Examiner interview with Mitt Romney – MARK TAPSCOTT: From the very beginning of this race you’ve drawn support from about 25 percent of Republican voters and there’s been a succession of “not Romney” shooting stars, if you will, who shot up and then down. What do you think is the reason you’ve stayed in this 25 percent area of support?
MITT ROMNEY: I don’t know the answer, in part because I am not a political scientist, a pundit who evaluates why people move in one direction or another. I am a conservative business guy with a message to the American people that I think is compelling. And if so I’ll be the nominee and the president, and if not I’ll go back to business. And so I have theories that I hear various people say different things. I hear some say, ‘look, you’re well known,’ – I’m well known – ‘people know who you are, they saw you last time around, there’s an image of who you are, as other people come around they project on them a sense that they are exactly like who we are as voters, and we give them a lot of support, and then comes the agonizing reappraisal as we get to know them and their strengths and their weaknesses and their numbers may trail off. Some trail off more precipitously. Others will come off in a more gentle manner.’ But I stay about the same.
- MA-Sen Poll Watch: Elizabeth Warren soars 7 up over Scott Brown – Democrat Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead against Republican incumbent Scott Brown for the first time in their U.S. Senate showdown, but a barrage of attack ads appears to have damaged Warren and Brown’s standing among Massachusetts voters, a new University of Massachusetts at Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows.
Warren leads Brown by a 49-42 percent margin, outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. That number includes voters who say they are “leaning” for either candidate. But even without the “leaners,” Warren still leads by a 46-41 percent margin, barely within the margin of error.
- For Romney, Mormon question rears its ugly head in Iowa – For Romney, Mormon question rears its ugly head in Iowa
Religion just got re-injected into the presidential race thanks to new ads from Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. But really, it never left.
New polls in Iowa suggest Romney’s Mormon religion continues to be a sticking point among all-important evangelical Christians there. And that’s bad news for a Romney campaign that is trying desperately to prevent Newt Gingrich from scoring a big victory in the state’s caucuses.
A new CNN/Time poll out Wednesday showed Romney trailing Gingrich 33 percent to 20 percent in the Hawkeye State. A look at the crosstabs suggests religion is a big reason why.
- Read his lips: John Sununu hates Newt Gingrich – With former Speaker Newt Gingrich surging in the polls, former Gov. Mitt Romney has finally decided it’s time to go on the offensive. One of the men Romney has lined up to attack Gingrich is former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu.
The feud is not new.
As a former chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush, Sununu has a long-held grudge against Gingrich — who fought Bush’s budget deal that included raising taxes.
Here’s an excerpt from a 1990 Fred Barnes article that describes a meeting for Bush’s re-election efforts:
Sununu attacked congressional Republicans for abandoning the president. House Republican whip Newt Gingrich, who led the opposition to the budget deal, wasn’t invited to the meeting. But he was on Sununu’s and [former OMB director Richard] Darman’s mind. “You could see the Newt chip on their shoulders,” said one Bush adviser. “It was a strikingly bad discussion. The death embrace [of Sununu and Darman] grew tighter.”
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-08 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-08 #tcot #catcot
- December 4, 2011 Las Vegas Half Marathon Race Report and Recap | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – December 4, 2011 Las Vegas Half Marathon Race Report and Recap
- The Afternoon Flap: December 7, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Afternoon Flap: December 7, 2011 #tcot #catcot
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, Abramoff, Brown, DCCC, Democrats, Gingrich, GOP, Iowa, Mormon, Pinboard Links, Polling, Romney, Social_Media, Sununu, The Morning Flap, Twiiter, Warren, Wu
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