-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Does Mitt Romney Have the GOP Nomination Wrapped Up?
The Gallup Presidential Poll released at noon today
Yes, according to New York Times Blogger and pollster extraordinaire, Nate Silver.While most of the political world’s attention has been focused on South Carolina, Mitt Romney has moved into a clear lead in a set of national polls conducted since his victory in the New Hampshire primary.
On average, Mr. Romney has 35 percent of the vote in an average of four national polls completed since New Hampshire, giving him a 19-point lead over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
Just how safe is a 19-point lead at this point in the campaign? Based on historical precedent, it is enough to all but assure that Mr. Romney will be the Republican nominee.
I went through our database of past primary polls for the 16 competitive nomination races from 1972 (when the current primary system was adopted) to 2008. For each cycle, I took a simple average of all national polls conducted in the two weeks after the New Hampshire primary was held. (The lone exception was the 1976 Democratic race, when there were no polls conducted within this window, so I expanded the range to three weeks after New Hampshire instead.)
In 13 of the 16 cases, the candidate leading in national polls after New Hampshire won his party’s nomination.
Then, there is today’s Florida poll which has Mitt Romney with a substantial lead over the GOP field (17 points over second place Gingrich).
I think it is the conventional wisdom, that Romney has won and will be the 2012 GOP Presidential nominee.
-
Day By Day January 16, 2012 – The Play’s the Thing
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, I cannot guarantee that Romney’s approach to a “snow” crisis will be that much different than Obama’s.Unfortunately, it looks like Mitt Romney WILL be the GOP Presidential nominee and Sarah Palin will NOT be a player in 2012.
Palins time will come in 2013 as she gears up to run for Alaska U.S. Senate or is appointed to a cabinet position (Secretary of Energy) in a Romney Administration.
-
CA-26: It’s Official – California State Senator Tony Strickland to Announce for Congress Tomorrow
As I said yesterday, my Republican California State Senator, Tony Strickland, will announce tomorrow morning for Congress (CA-26).I will be there tomorrow with my video camera.
Stay tuned…..
-
@Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-16
- Congrats to Claire Danes for her win as best actress in TV drama. Yay Homeland! #
- Jon Huntsman to withdraw from race and endorse Romney tomorrow….another one bites the dust…. #
- Yay Homeland! Thanks to Foreign Press for their Golden Globe award. Love the show! Congrats to Damian Lewis and Claire Danes #GoldenGlobes #
- Conservative Religious Leaders, Seeking Unity, Vote to Back Rick Santorum http://t.co/7DLYv58d #
- Many feel this way RT @DanRiehl:For the MittWits saying I must choose Obama or Mitt, nope I can simply sit out, focus on House, Senate races #
- @ToddKincannon It appears so. in reply to ToddKincannon #
- Perry vows to fight on, regardless of result in South Carolina primary – even if last http://t.co/7pc3Hhup #
- Bob Hertzberg thinks 27th Senate district is made for him http://t.co/IUynJyXF #
- Run, Hertzy, Run http://t.co/kgMonwPv #
- CA-26: California State Senator Tony Strickland to Run for Congress | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/IBK0Q3GN #
- CA-26: California State Senator Tony Strickland to Run for Congress http://t.co/gT07ZDFs #
- The Morning Drill: January 12, 2012 http://t.co/TgfU6iNm #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-15 | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/DowQH55x #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-15 http://t.co/zYHafGFs #
Powered by Twitter Tools