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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Gingrich Maintaining National Poll Lead While Romney Slumps
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Republican registered voters nationally continue to prefer Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, with no sign in Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 22-26 that Gingrich is giving back any of his recent gains.
The 32% of Republican voters now choosing Gingrich as the candidate they are most likely to support for the nomination is his highest level of support since the 2012 primary voting began in early January. The 24% supporting Romney is his lowest.
Despite the heavy media focus on the two front-runners, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are each holding their own at just under 15%, putting the two men in a statistical tie for third.
It looks like the concentrated attacks of the GOP Establishment, including New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former U.S. Senator Bob Dole have had little effect. It could also be that Mitt Romney just does not command that much support for himself.
Romney has pummeled Gingrich in Florida this past week with negative ads. Perhaps people just no longer respond to Romney’s negativity.
But, I suppose we will see what Florida voters do on Tuesday.
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CA-26: A Republican – Akiva Werbalowsky In and a Democrat – Zeke Ruelas Out
California Congressional District 26 Map from Around the Capitol
In the latest developments in the fast-changing campaign for Ventura County’s new 26th Congressional District, the County Republican Central Committee has unanimously endorsed Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark, a Ron Paul supporter from Ojai announced he will be a candidate and one of five Democratic candidates has withdrawn from the race.
Akiva Werbalowsky, a permaculture designer from Ojai, became the third Republican to enter the race, saying he, like Paul in the presidential campaign, will advocate a libertarian conservative view.
“I consider myself similar to Barry Goldwater, who believed that personal liberty is the primary concern of a conservative,” he said Thursday.
And, Democrat Zeke Ruelas, a retired longshoreman and veterans’ advocate from Oxnard has apparently withdrawn his candidacy (the filing deadline is March 9) and will endorse Democrat Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett.
This leaves the race with Republicans Linda Parks and Tony Strickland.
Democrats include Bennett, David Pollock, a Moorpark City Councilman, Jess Herrera, an Oxnard Harbor Commissioner and David Cruz Thayne, a Westlake Village businessman.
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USC and James Franco’s Undergrads
I suppose USC (University of Southern California) is NOT too happy with this web reality show.
Oh well!
The only difference I can see with this display, other than when I was a student there is someone is documenting the student activity, videoing it and posting it on the internet for all to see.
Perhaps there will be some lessons learned – and maybe not.
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The Morning Flap: January 27, 2012
Graphic from Investors Business Daily
These are my links for January 26th through January 27th:
- Obama admits his presidency has been flawed… but claims economy is stronger – Barack Obama said he makes mistakes on an hourly basis as President but stood firmly behind his administration’s work in bolstering the U.S. economy and jobs market.
The President was in Las Vegas to champion investment in clean energy, declaring the U.S. ‘the Saudia Arabia of natural gas’ in a speech to UPS workers.
However in an interview with ABC News’ Diane Sawyer last night, he said: ‘I second-guess constantly… I make a mistake, you know, every hour, every day.’
He added: ‘But when you look at the broad outlines of what we did, had it not been for the steps we took our economy would be profoundly weaker than we are right now.’
Obama spoke at a Las Vegas UPS center to showcase a refueling station that will permit vehicles that use liquefied natural gas to travel from the Port of Long Beach to Salt Lake City. The station was built with help from Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus plan.
He also announced the sale of oil and gas drilling leases for nearly 38 million acres in the Gulf Coast and promoted the completion of a highway corridor for vehicles that run on liquefied natural gas, a response to critics who say his policies have stifled domestic energy production.
- Obama: Bush Is Food Stamp President, Not Me – “First of all, I don’t put people on food stamps. People become eligible for food stamps. Second of all, the initial expansion of food-stamp eligibility happened under my Republican predecessor, not under me. Number three, when you have a disastrous economic crash that results in 8 million people losing their jobs, more people are going to need more support from government.”
- Obama: I Want An Economy “Where We’re Making Stuff And Selling Stuff And Moving It Around” – “On Tuesday at the State of the Union, I laid out my vision for how we move forward,” President Obama said at a campaign event in Las Vegas, Nevada. “I laid out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last, that has a firm foundation. Where we’re making stuff and selling stuff and moving it around and UPS drivers are dropping things off everywhere.”
“That’s the economy we want. An economy built on American manufacturing, with more good jobs and more products made here in the United States of America,” he also said.
- Is Obama Creating A Nation Of Dependents? Nearly Half Now Get Government Benefits – If the Republican primaries are any indication, one big debate in the upcoming election will be whether President Obama is pushing the country toward a European-style welfare culture.
Mitt Romney, for example, argues that “over the past three years, Barack Obama has been replacing our merit-based society with an entitlement society.”
Newt Gingrich has taken to calling Obama “the best food-stamp president in American history.”
Obama, in contrast, says the government must play an increasing role — what he likes to call “shared responsibility” — to ensure a society that is fairer.
So is Obama turning the country into a welfare society and away from one focused on opportunity?
While it’s true that the country has been headed in this direction for many years — with the explosion in entitlements since the 1960s and the aging of the population — Obama has, in fact, greatly accelerated the trend.
- 1.7% – Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010
- Worst News Story of 2012? | Power Line – Reuters and Sen Marco Rubio: Worst News Story of 2012? #tcot
- Mitt Romney’s Struggle With Truth Continues – RT @LizMair: Hilarious video. RT @mattklewis ‘Mitt Romney’s Struggle With Truth Continues’
- (500) http://flapsblog.com/2012/01/27/flap-twitter-updates-for-2012-01-27/ – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
- AD-38: Scott Wilk Vs. Patricia or Is It Rep. Buck McKeon? » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Scott Wilk Vs. Patricia or Is It Rep. Buck McKeon?
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News – Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News – Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News – Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News
- President 2012: GOP Debate Tonight – Long Knives Out for Newt Gingrich | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012: GOP Debate Tonight – Long Knives Out for Newt Gingrich
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News – Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income
- Obama-backed electric car battery-maker files for bankruptcy – The Hill’s E2-Wire – Another one bites the dust | Obama-backed electric car battery-maker files for bankruptcy
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – Mitt Romney’s campaign is amending the financial disclosure forms he filed in 2007 and 2011 to acknowledge that a Romney trust held a Swiss bank account, a detail that had been missing from both reports.
“An amendment is being filed to address this minor discrepancy,” a campaign official told ABC News in an email Thursday in response to questions about the apparent omission.
The discovery that the Romneys had $3 million in an account with the Swiss bank UBS came only after the Republican presidential candidate released his tax returns for 2010 on Tuesday. The campaign had maintained that it was not necessary to disclose the Swiss account because Romney’s money manager, Brad Malt, had shuttered it in early 2010.
Several Republican election lawyers told ABC News Thursday that the account still needed to be disclosed because a Romney trust earned about $1,700 in income on the account during 2010. The campaign’s decision to amend the forms was first reported by the Los Angeles Times.
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News – OOPS | Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income #tcot
- InsiderAdvantage Poll: Romney Surges to Florida Lead – Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney apparently has reversed a surge by Newt Gingrich to retake the momentum in the Florida primary, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union poll.
The poll shows that Republicans most likely to vote in the state’s closed primary now favor Romney over Gingrich by 40 to 32 percent. Rep. Ron Paul has 9 percent, while former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum has 8 percent.
Nine percent of those surveyed were undecided. The poll, which was conducted Wednesday night, was weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of plus and minus 4 percent.
The poll’s result also is supported by other polls conducted Wednesday and earlier this week. A CNN/Time/ORC International Poll also indicates that, although Gingrich surged following his 12-point victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, his momentum appears to be cooling off.
- CA-26: Ventura County Republican Party Endorses Tony Strickland for Congress | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-26: Ventura County Republican Party Endorses Tony Strickland for Congress
- AD-38: Scott Wilk for Assembly Announces More Local Leaders on Campaign Team » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Scott Wilk for Assembly Announces More Local Leaders on Campaign Team
- Dole Unloads on Gingrich – Yes—>RT @politicalwire: Doesn’t having both McCain and Dole backing Romney actually help Gingrich make his point?
- Log In – The New York Times – Log In – The New York Times
- HPV study finds human papilloma virus carried in mouths – latimes.com – RT @latimes: Study finds that 7% of U.S. teens and adults carry human papilloma virus in their mouths
- Untitled (http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/2cb9cd86-960a-4443-bac6-116c400614fb.pdf) – RT @fivethirtyeight: New SurveyUSA/Monmouth poll has Romney up 7 in Florida.
- Log In – The New York Times – Log In – The New York Times
- Reuters’ embarassing Rubio hit piece | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner – Reuters’ embarassing Sen Marco Rubio hit piece #tcot
- Log In – The New York Times – Apple’s iPad and the Human Costs for Workers in China
- Geithner Says Obama Won’t Ask Him to Lead Treasury if He Wins Re-Election- Bloomberg – Geithner Says Obama Won’t Ask Him to Lead Treasury if He Wins Re-Election
- The Morning Flap: January 26, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: January 26, 2012
- Obama admits his presidency has been flawed… but claims economy is stronger – Barack Obama said he makes mistakes on an hourly basis as President but stood firmly behind his administration’s work in bolstering the U.S. economy and jobs market.
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Day By Day January 27, 2012 – Movie King
Day By Day by Chris MuirI watched President Obama give a speech in Michigan this morning. He DOES deliver a good teleprompter served up speech.Obama is charming and knows how to work the crowd.
But…. this does not work with governance and polict which have been a disaster for the American people.
Will candidate Obama be able to persuade voters to give him another four years?
Fool me twice….
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Charles Manson and Two Nights of Mayhem – Four Decades Later
Photos by the AP
The Orange County Register has an excellent photo collage of Charles Manson and his two nights of mayhem – four decades later.Check it out here.
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President 2012: How Do Gingrich and Romney Look Against Obama in the Electoral College?
The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.
To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.
Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.
Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.
In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.
Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.
This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.
Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.
But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.
Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.
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@Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
- I wonder if Romney's attack machine will go after Obama like he did Newt and Perry? Doubtful but you never know… #
- At least with Romney, the GOP may very well be able to win the U.S. Senate majority and keep the House. The WH still doubtful #
- With about 30 minutes to go, it looks like Mitt Romney may very well have won the GOP Presidential nomination tonight. Romney thrashed Newt #
- How much time will Newt need to talk about his wives…..will they call time on him….nahhh probably not #
- What no jokes about illegal ALIENS from the moon? Guess workers? #
- Mitt Romney on Newt's Moon Base – You're Fired…. #
- RT @JonahNRO: Romney: Moon is an "enormous expense." My wife and I looked at building summer home there. The costs were prohibitive. #
- Mitt Romney on Newt's moon base = too expensive – so NO #
- Maybe Newt should try calling Wolf – Juan? #
- But, Romney doesn't explain as why his trustee has accounts in Swiss Banks and not in America? Why the Cayman Islands? Hedge risk? #
- Romney so out of touch he doesn't even know what ads he is running…come on now #
- In a minute Romney is going to raise his hand and say – hey what about letting me answer the question #
- Romney beat Gingrich on points over illegal immigration. But, I don't think it will matter much = plenty of ads out there.. #
- Wolf Blitzer changes up the first questioner's illegal immigration question just because…. sheesh…. #
- CNN with a long intro….. #
- The most important GOP Presidential debate of the cycle is beginning… who will show up tonight? Mean Newt or Professor Newt? #tcot #
- AD-38: Scott Wilk Vs. Patricia or Is It Rep. Buck McKeon? » Flap's California Blog http://t.co/Fq15CF0v #
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News http://t.co/Wh59GAU4 #
- AD-38: Scott Wilk Vs. Patricia or Is It Rep. Buck McKeon? http://t.co/rNmB1Nw3 #
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News http://t.co/1Uyqnz7o #
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News http://t.co/jhPgEzfv #
- President 2012: GOP Debate Tonight – Long Knives Out for Newt Gingrich | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/bnjfLwKP #
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income – ABC News http://t.co/F1Kfwx1X #
- Obama-backed electric car battery-maker files for bankruptcy – The Hill's E2-Wire http://t.co/tkDMCbQU #
- President 2012: GOP Debate Tonight – Long Knives Out for Newt Gingrich http://t.co/6eISFOXg #
- Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income http://t.co/7CONSGNV #
- InsiderAdvantage Poll: Romney Surges to Florida Lead http://t.co/LOP2DUlg #
- Another one bites the dust | Obama-backed electric car battery-maker files for bankruptcy http://t.co/rCjhdNuc #
- OOPS | Romney Failed to Disclose Swiss Bank Account Income #tcot http://t.co/OfZoOU7V #
- CA-26: Ventura County Republican Party Endorses Tony Strickland for Congress | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's D… http://t.co/z7RtvNLO #
- CA-26: Ventura County Republican Party Endorses Tony Strickland for Congress http://t.co/QY5bqdNL #
- AD-38: Scott Wilk for Assembly Announces More Local Leaders on Campaign Team » Flap's California Blog http://t.co/UPMLffF1 #
- AD-38: Scott Wilk for Assembly Announces More Local Leaders on Campaign Team http://t.co/PtP1QU2J #
- Dole Unloads on Gingrich http://t.co/GrM6tbCH #
- Yes—>RT @politicalwire: Doesn't having both McCain and Dole backing Romney actually help Gingrich make his point? http://t.co/jES7noze #
- Michael Reagan on Fox News calls Mitt Romney a Rockefeller Republican Vs. Newt Gingrich who is a Reagan Republican #tcot #
- HPV study finds human papilloma virus carried in mouths – http://t.co/5MtiqMbH http://t.co/z1jC10T8 #
- Untitled (http://t.co/e9KRWQ6c) http://t.co/y3qkICUB #
- Log In – The New York Times http://t.co/jWAcJVG6 #
- RT @latimes: Study finds that 7% of U.S. teens and adults carry human papilloma virus in their mouths http://t.co/ySNj4G2o #
- Reuters' embarassing Rubio hit piece | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner http://t.co/aQe3Bv0G #
- Log In – The New York Times http://t.co/8qo0WHZr #
- Geithner Says Obama Won’t Ask Him to Lead Treasury if He Wins Re-Election- Bloomberg http://t.co/HORV7OGT #
- Reuters' embarassing Sen Marco Rubio hit piece #tcot http://t.co/D4rXDPtM #
- Apple’s iPad and the Human Costs for Workers in China http://t.co/yvgt6U7x #
- Thou Shalt Not Write Bad Things About Obama http://t.co/hqzXB9y5 #
- Geithner Says Obama Won’t Ask Him to Lead Treasury if He Wins Re-Election http://t.co/ddB8h9kK #
- The Morning Flap: January 26, 2012 http://t.co/t6vrgmkz #
- President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Mitt Romney Has Jumped Back in Front of Newt Gingrich http://t.co/bx6Yb23v #
- As Obama demands rich Americans pay more in taxes, the IRS reveals 36 Obama aides are far behind in their taxes http://t.co/SPgoKsAu #
- Leak to media about House Ethics probes ignites chatter on source, motives http://t.co/Zne2eFfa #
- Post-State of the Union Analysis http://t.co/ORaLGnv7 #
- Post-State of the Union Analysis Where Americans stand on 16 issues Pres. Obama raised in the State of the Union http://t.co/m3s5hSmH #
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: January 26, 2012 http://t.co/Aij8xEGK #
- Many Patients Continue to Smoke Even After Being Diagnosed With Cancer http://t.co/nYaaSCrK #
- Florida's Rubio a star, but an unlikely VP pick
| Reuters http://t.co/OfLMG9Up # - Flap's Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: January 26, 2012 http://t.co/AreBXSgu #
- Florida's Rubio a star, but an unlikely VP pick http://t.co/FMcv45f7 #
- The Morning Drill: January 26, 2012 http://t.co/2n4R1gUQ #
- Day By Day January 26, 2012 – Da Damonator | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/nwwMJqLb #
- Day by Day January 26, 2012 – Da Damonator http://t.co/YuHB6gxd #
- The Buffett Ruse – http://t.co/7okzcU8P http://t.co/CNbcI9pq #
- The Buffett Ruse Obama's ploy means the highest capital gains tax rate since 1978 #tcot http://t.co/x2ZFzR1u #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-26 | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/6uZJLShl #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-26 http://t.co/gXwQdjHe #
- Dick Armey: Daniels could still run – CNN Political Ticker – http://t.co/briORGgz Blogs http://t.co/Z6Rn77s1 #
- RT @Students4Mitch: Dick Armey: Daniels could still run – http://t.co/1Z0y8r0c #
- When Gingrich Tried, and Failed, to Intimidate Tom Coburn – By Jim Geraghty – The Campaign Spot – National Revie… http://t.co/ztHpMGaT #
- (404) http://t.co/T http://t.co/T #
- When Gingrich Tried, and Failed, to Intimidate Tom Coburn http://t.co/ZyBRgLVk #
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