• Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Is Mitt Romney Electable?


    Graphic from PPP Polling

    Mitt Romney’s argument that he is the most electable Republican against President Obama bares close scutiny, according to the latest PPP Polls.

    One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama…at least until now.  PPP’s newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.

    Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
    Ron Paul has nearly matched Romney on the electability front, trailing Obama by 8 points at 49-41. Paul does the best of the Republican candidates with independents, with only a 1 point deficit to Obama. Newt Gingrich has firmly established himself as the Republican who would be the biggest general election disaster, trailing 52-40 with a 19 point deficit among independents.

    Why is Obama doing so well? It has a lot to do with this finding: 41% of voters think the economy’s getting better to only 31% who think it’s getting worse with 27% thinking that it’s staying about the same. This is the first time since Obama took office that we’ve asked a question in this vein on a national poll and found more voters feeling optimistic than pessimistic about the way things are heading.

    If the GOP nominates Mitt Romney, he will lose by as much or more than John McCain.  Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are flawed candidates, who also will lose. There is no path to victory for any of these pols, especially with an improving economy.

    If the GOP wants to win, they need to nominate someone outside the current field – an accomplished Governor like Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Catholic Church,  Polling

    Poll Watch: 46 Per Cent of Catholics Approve of President Obama



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Catholics’ views of President Obama were little changed during a week in which the administration battled publicly with Catholic leaders over whether church-affiliated employers should have to pay for contraception as part of their employees’ health plans. An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error.

    Although Catholic Church leaders’ opposition to the requirement dates back to last fall, when the policy was being laid out, the controversy erupted and made headlines in the last 10 days, after the Obama administration announced that religious-based employers would ultimately have to comply. The Obama administration’s rules would have forced organizations affiliated with the church — such as Catholic hospitals, service organizations, and universities — to pay for employee healthcare services that go against their belief that Catholics should not use contraception.

    Well, this is a little different from the Rasmussen Poll earlier today, but what is striking is that ONLY 46% approve of President Obama and the job he is doing. Although the cahnge from the previous weeks is within the margin of error, since the American Catholic Bishops are not pleased and will be continually be broadcasting their displeasure from the pulpit, eventually you will see some movement in the polls – and it won;t be upward.

    If I was President, I would not want to risk re-election with a key swing demographic group, who traditionally has given me better approval ratings than the average American population, less than 50 per cent.

  • Barack Obama,  Catholic Church,  Polling

    Poll Watch: 59 Per Cent of Catholics Disapprove of President Obama

    Prescription contraceptives

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    Catholics strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing as the debate continues over his administration’s new policy forcing Catholic institutions to pay for contraception they morally oppose. While the president’s overall job approval ratings have improved over the past couple of months, they have remained steady among Catholics.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of likely Catholic voters nationwide at least somewhat disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 40% at least somewhat approve. But the passion’s on the side of those who don’t like the job he’s doing: 44% Strongly Disapprove versus 19% who Strongly Approve.

    The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted February 6-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    Not really a surprise, especially with the Priests discussing the issue with the faithful during Mass.

    The pressure on the President will intensify, if there are not further concessions by his Administration.

  • CA-26,  Linda Parks,  Steve Bennett

    CA-26: Steve Bennett’s Change of Mind Forcing a Change in Linda Park’s Independent Campaign Plans


    We learned over the weekend at the State Democratic Convention in San Diego that Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett changed his mind and would not run for Congress. Instead he will run for re-election to the Ventura County Supervisors.

    So, who is left in the CA-26 race (filing opened yesterday and will close on March 9).

    • Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland
    • Independent/Republican Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks
    • Democrat Moorpark Councilman David Pollock
    • Democrat Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jess Herrera
    • Democrat Westlake Village businessman David Cruz Thayne
    • Libertarian/Republican Akiva Werbalowsky

    It has also been rumored that Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, a Democrat, who represents most of Oxnard and Port Hueneme is also looking at the race.

    And, I maintain that ultimately (by the ninth anyway), Rep. Brad Sherman who is in a contentious race against Rep Howard Berman will move from CA-30 in the San Fernando Valley out to Ventura County.

    But, what about Linda Parks, the Ventura County Supervisor who while a registered Republican says she wants to run an “independent or bipartisan” campaign? Here she is saying such at her announcement:

    This was all good and as Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star points out – Parks had the best of both worlds. She could be a “registered” Republican yet be designated on the ballot that she did not identify with either party – in other words she was an independent.

    But, the election law changed Monday – just in time for the opening of the filing period.

    So, Steve Bennett’s withdrawal has shaken up Linda Park’s plans. Parks will either have to change her registration to “Decline to State,” from Republican or be listed as “prefers Republican Party on the ballot.”

    Guess we will find out soon – at least by the 9th of March.

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: February 14, 2012

    These are my links for February 13th through February 14th:

    • “Dogs Against Romney”? Democrats Say Unleash the Hound! – Tomorrow outside the Westminster dog show at Madison Square Garden at noon the group “Dogs Against Romney” will protest “to ensure pet lovers are aware that Mitt Romney is mean to dogs,” according to the group’s press release.

      While it may seem silly to some, Democrats are have every intention of making sure – if Romney wins the GOP nomination – that every voting American knows about the story of Romney putting his family dog Seamus in a kennel on top of his roof and driving from Boston to Canada, with said canine Seamus making his displeasure known in a rather scatological way. “I have a yellow Lab named Winston,” Fox News’ Chris Wallace said to Romney. “I would no sooner put him in a kennel on the roof of my car than I would one of my children. Question: What were you thinking?” “This is a completely airtight kennel, mounted on the roof of our car,” Romney replied. “He climbed up there regularly, enjoyed himself. He was in a kennel at home a great deal of the time as well. We loved the dog. It was where he was comfortable.” “When Seamus crapped all over the car I’m fairly certain he wasn’t expressing pleasure,” one top Democrat told ABC News.

      “31 million dog-owners vote,” said another.

    • Media Matters memo called for hiring private investigators ‘to look into the personal lives’ of Fox employees – A little after 1 p.m. on Sept. 29, 2009, Karl Frisch emailed a memo to his bosses, Media Matters for America founder David Brock and president Eric Burns. In the first few lines, Frisch explained why Media Matters should launch a “Fox Fund” whose mission would be to attack the Fox News Channel.

      “Simply put,” Frisch wrote, “the progressive movement is in need of an enemy. George W. Bush is gone. We really don’t have John McCain to kick around any more. Filling the lack of leadership on the right, Fox News has emerged as the central enemy and antagonist of the Obama administration, our Congressional majorities and the progressive movement as a whole.”

      “We must take Fox News head-on in a well funded, presidential-style campaign to discredit and embarrass the network, making it illegitimate in the eyes of news consumers.”

      What Frisch proceeded to suggest, however, went well beyond what legitimate presidential campaigns attempt. “We should hire private investigators to look into the personal lives of Fox News anchors, hosts, reporters, prominent contributors, senior network and corporate staff,” he wrote.

      After that, Frisch argued, should come the legal assault: “We should look into contracting with a major law firm to study any available legal actions that can be taken against Fox News, from a class action law suit to defamation claims for those wronged by the network. I imagine this would be difficult but the right law firm is bound to find some legal ground for us to take action against the network.”

    • Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base
    • No money for D.C. voucher program in Obama’s gigantic new budget, of course; Update: Meanwhile, White House to boost subsidies for Chevy Volt
    • Obama’s ‘rosy’ budget scenario doubles down on class warfare « The Enterprise Blog
    • Laura Richardson’s ethics woes mount – Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson instructed taxpayer-funded House aides to work on political redistricting last year, sources familiar with the situation told POLITICO.

      Such activities could amount to a violation of prohibitions against lawmakers pressuring aides to do political work, as well as rules against using official resources, including staff, for campaign purposes.

      The redistricting work, which has not previously been disclosed, allegedly occurred after it became clear Richardson was under investigation over another set of allegations that she forced House aides to perform political and personal tasks in violation of House rules. Richardson did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

      Sources told POLITICO that Richardson’s congressional aides collected information about communities outside her district, organized a workshop to train constituents in advance of a public meeting of California’s independent redistricting commission, and wrote talking points for those constituents to deliver during the public-comments portion of the meeting at Long Beach City Hall in April 2011.

      The redistricting work was done at Richardson’s direction — rather than on a voluntary basis — these sources said.

      A spokesman for the Ethics Committee declined to comment on the Richardson case, but several sources indicated that investigators have expanded the probe and are now looking into the redistricting angle.

    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-14 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-14
    • Iranians’ Internet access blocked temporarily: experts – Most computer users in Iran were blocked from accessing email, social networking and other services in recent days, U.S.-based Internet experts said on Monday, raising fears the government is extending the reach of its surveillance on ordinary citizens.

      Internet service providers presumed to be acting at the Iranian government’s behest began blocking the most common form of secure connections on Friday, according to the outside experts and Iranian bloggers. Traffic rebounded to normal levels on Monday.

      The cutoff apparently affected all encrypted international websites outside of Iran that depend on the Secure Sockets Layer protocol, which display addresses beginning with https, according to Earl Zmijewski of Renesys, a U.S. company that tracks Internet traffic worldwide.

    • California lawmaker writes ‘Public Employees Bill of Rights’ – Assemblyman Roger Dickinson, D-Sacramento,(right) has introduced legislation that would give unionized state workers more workplace discipline protections and first dibs on state government work.

      SEIU Local 1000 and the Union of American Physicians and Dentists support AB 1655, the “Public Employees Bill of Rights Act.” Here’s what it would do:

      • Gives unionized state employees priority over outside contractors and excluded state workers to fill permanent, overtime and on-call positions.
      • Sets a one-year statute of limitations for employers to take an adverse action against a state employee. (The current law allows disciplinary actions up to three years after the discovery of fraud, embezzlement or records falsification.)
      • Establishes a peer review committee to provide workplace operations input.
      • Guarantees that the state won’t impose “unreasonable quotas” on employees.
      • Bans extra work created by vacancies, furloughs of layoffs without “fair compensation.”
      • Gives priority to workplace safety and health grievances.
      • Explicitly bans workplace discrimination.
      • Strengthens whistleblower protections.
      • Requires employers exercise “preventive and corrective” actions before administering harsher employee discipline.
      • Settles grievances in favor of the employee if the employer misses contractual deadlines for response.
      • Defines protections and performance and merit evaluation processes for professionally licensed employees.
      • Guarantees independent legal representation for professionally licensed workers named as codefendants in litigation against their employers.

    • Will Overeating Contribute to Memory Loss? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Will Overeating Contribute to Memory Loss?
    • Steinberg seeks state review of Sacramento Co. dental program – Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg is calling for a state review of a Sacramento County pilot program that provides state-funded dental coverage for low-income children.

      A Center for Health Reporting article published in The Bee over the weekend detailed the shortcomings of the managed care program, including long wait times and comparatively low rates of dental care among the more than 110,000 Sacramento County children covered by the program.

      In a letter to California Department of Health Care Services Director Toby Douglas, Steinberg called for immediate action to address what he called a “crisis in prevention and treatment services.”

      “Despite that state funding, disturbing specific patient cases as well as the department’s own data cited in the article make it abundantly clear that prevention and treatment services are woefully inadequate for those children most in need,” the Sacramento Democrat wrote in the letter.

      In addition to the investigation, Steinberg asked the administration to step up its monitoring of dental plans under contract with the program and withhold payments or cancel contracts with plans that fail to provide proper access to care or meet other performance standards.

    • President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum SURGES to Catch Romney | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum SURGES to Catch Romney
    • AD-38: Antelope Valley Press Picks Up On Buck McKeon Countrywide Financial Stall Game » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Antelope Valley Press Picks Up On Buck McKeon Countrywide Financial Stall Game
    • George Will Video: Catholic Bishops “It Serves Them Right” Re: ObamaCare Contraception Mandate | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – George Will Video: Catholic Bishops “It Serves Them Right” Re: ObamaCare Contraception Mandate
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Food and Drug Administration Shuts Down Dental Implant Manufacturer – Food and Drug Administration Shuts Down Dental Implant Manufacturer
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: February 13, 2012 – The Morning Drill: February 13, 2012
    • Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney Tied Nationally As Romney Struggles with Base, New Polls Show – Despite a victory in the Maine caucuses on Saturday, Mitt Romney has more to worry about after two new polls released Monday show him fighting to keep his lead among Republicans nationally and struggling to win favor from the conservative base.

      A new Pew Research Center poll found Santorum and Romney neck-and-neck, with Santorum winning 30 percent of the support among Republican registered voters to Romney’s 28 percent — a difference that falls well within the poll’s five percentage point margin of error. Separately, Gallup’s latest tracking survey of the Republican race found Romney with 32 percent support and Santorum right on his heels with 30 percent.

      Of concern for Romney, the Pew poll shows him struggling among the conservative groups that make up the Republican base. Among self-identified conservatives, Santorum leads Romney by an 11 percent margin, 36 percent to 25 percent. Among Tea Party supporters, Santorum leads 42 percent to 23 percent.

      Romney’s support among Tea Party supporters is essentially unchanged from last month, when he received 26 percent support from Tea Party supporters to 24 percent each for Santorum and Newt Gingrich. But Santorum’s lead among the group may be a sign that they have begun to see him as the alternative to Romney.

    • Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 13, 2012 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 13, 2012
    • Obama proposes $800 million in aid for Arab Spring
      | Reuters
      – Obama proposes $800 million in aid for “Arab Spring”
    • The State Worker: CA prison officers spent more than $1 million on political advice – RT @TheStateWorker: CA prison officers spent more than $1 million on political advice
    • Election 2012 Polling and News, Republican Presidential Candidates, Obama, Interactive Polling Data – President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Vs. Santorum 30% Vs. Gingrich 16% Vs. Paul 8%
    • Why America Keeps Getting More Conservative – Politics – The Atlantic Cities – Because it is the RIGHT thing to do….
    • Jack Lew’s misleading claim about the Senate’s failure to pass a budget resolution – The Washington Post – Jack Lew’s misleading claim about the Senate’s failure to pass a budget resolution
    • Dem lawmaker: Obama budget is a ‘nervous breakdown on paper’ – The Hill’s Video – Dem lawmaker: Obama budget is a ‘nervous breakdown on paper’
    • CA-26: Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett Out as Candidate for Congress | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-26: Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett Out as Candidate for Congress
    • The American Spectator : Can Mitt Close the Deal? – Cold, bleak February has turned into a happy time for us. It’s given us a short break from the constant barrage of debates, speeches and “crucial” primaries in the Republican presidential nomination contest. February has given us, and the candidates, a bit of time to think. Let’s make the most of it.
      The nomination is still up for grabs. Mitt Romney has the clearest path to it but Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul are all promising to take it all the way to the convention. To those who natter about how cool a “brokered” convention would be, I say don’t wish for something because you might get it. (Among other frightful questions, who can be the brokers? It’ll be a food fight that benefits only the media.) The Republican Party is too weak and fractured to come out of such an event united and strong enough to win in November.
      So let’s assume that Romney is the nominee. The arithmetic is pretty simple. Mitt Romney plus an energized Republican base can beat Obama in November. Romney without an energized base will lose. But the Republican base is conservative, and Romney hasn’t closed the deal with conservatives. Can he?
      Let’s face it: Romney isn’t one of us. At CPAC last Friday he said he governed Massachusetts as a “severely conservative” Republican in the tone of voice my late maternal grandmother used to say she was severely constipated. We know his record as state candidate and governor, and national candidate since 2007. We need not rehearse it here. Suffice it to say that it defines him as a transactional conservative. He will apply conservative principles as a business owner might apply production scenarios and estimated profit margins to negotiating a deal. They aren’t part of his core, but will be useful tools for him in campaigning and, if he wins, governing.
    • National Review calls on Gingrich to bow out of presidential race – The National Review is calling on Newt Gingrich to drop out of the Republican presidential race, arguing the former House Speaker should clear the way for Rick Santorum to seize the mantle as the Anti-Romney choice for conservatives.

      “It is not clear whether Gingrich remains in the race because he still believes he could become president next year or because he wants to avenge his wounded pride: an ambiguity that suggests the problem with him as a leader. When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit,” the editors of the influential conservative online magazine wrote in an op-ed posted Monday.

    • Santorum moves ahead in Michigan – Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

      Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

      Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

    • Untitled (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/budget.pdf) – RT @markknoller: The president’s 2013 federal budget now posted at
    • Ill. man bilks Medicaid of $2M for erectile pumps — Health — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine – Illinois man bilks Medicaid of $2M for penis erectile pumps
    • Santorum’s Turn – The Editors – National Review Online – Santorum’s Turn – really all that is left or it’s Romney
    • The Morning Flap: February 13, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: February 13, 2012
    • IN-Sen: Richard Mourdock Attacks Sen Richard Lugar for Support of Teapot Museum | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – IN-Sen: Richard Mourdock Attacks Sen Richard Lugar for Support of Teapot Museum
    • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-13 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-13
    • AD-38: Details Emerge on Buck and Patricia McKeon’s Countrywide Home Loans » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Details Emerge on Buck and Patricia McKeon’s Countrywide Home Loans
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    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-14

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