Archive for February 21st, 2012
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Republicans by a better than 2-to-1 margin would prefer that one of the four remaining GOP presidential candidates win enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination, rather than having a brokered convention that could then choose another person to be the party’s presidential nominee.
Republicans prefer to avoid having the presidential candidate chosen at the convention even though a majority say they wish someone else was running for the party’s nomination. Forty-four percent are pleased with the selection of candidates. These results are based on a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll.
I don’t believe most Republicans even understand the nomination process – just who emerges as the victor.
If a stronger candidate comes out of the convention, which I believe will, than the current field – then so be it.
The current GOP Presidential field is weak and after the first ballot when delegates are released to vote for whomever and state delegations make deals, you may see a stronger candidate emerge.
Whoever wants the nomination and whoever can organize their troops on the convention floor will win.
Anyone want to guess who will emerge?
My bet is Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin.
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Rick Santorum now holds a 10-percentage-point lead in Gallup’s Daily tracking of national Republicans registered voters’ preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination.
In the Feb. 15-19 Gallup Daily tracking rolling average, Santorum is ahead of Romney by 36% to 26%, with Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%. This marks Santorum’s largest lead to date. Santorum had moved to within two points of Romney, 30% to 32%, by the end of last week.
There is a big BUT, however.
Many pundits, including myself think that Rick Santorum will be the Biggest Loser when it comes to running against President Obama.
The Gallup Poll shows that many Republican primary voters think likewise.
So, what is the Republican Party to do?
In a separate USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Feb. 16-19, all Americans were asked which of the two candidates — Romney or Santorum — they believed would have the best chance of beating Barack Obama in November. Overall, 54% of Americans named Romney and 29% chose Santorum.
Fewer Republicans are undecided on this issue, leaving 58% who say Romney has the best chance of beating Obama, while 32% choose Santorum.
The next month should tell the tale – so stay tuned…..
Santorum’s leap upward was the direct result of his unexpected victories in the Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri primaries and caucuses on Feb. 7. There have been no major votes since then, and no debates, but that is about to change. Looming on the horizon are the Feb. 22 GOP debate in Arizona, the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, Feb. 28, and then a number of high-profile primaries and caucuses throughout March. Going by the pattern established this year, the results of each event have a good chance of further affecting the relative standing of the GOP candidates in the eyes of Republicans nationally.
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California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley
Well, the rumors have born some fruit with California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley announcing
over the long President’s Holiday weekend that she will run for Congress. Rep. Brad Sherman had coincidentally announced
that he was remaining in CA-30 to duke it out with fellow Democrat Rep. Howard Berman for that Congressional seat.
Brownley lives in Santa Monica, but told Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star that she would rent an apartment in Oak Park (unincorporated, Ventura County, but in CA-26) yesterday.
Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, stepping in after Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out last week, said Sunday she will be a Democratic candidate in Ventura County’s new 26th Congressional District.
Brownley, who lives in Santa Monica, has represented much of Ventura County in the Assembly for the past five years. Her district includes Port Hueneme, about half of Oxnard, Westlake Village and Oak Park — areas that make up about 16 percent of the congressional district.
Brownley said she will move to an apartment in Oak Park this week.
Most, if not all of CA-26 is in Ventura County and Democrat Brownley, while she represented Oxnard and Port Hueneme in the California Assembly is from Santa Monica in Los Angeles County. Her carpetbagger status (renting an apartment, in order to run for office in the Congressional District – although federal law allows non-resident candidacy, in any case) will be an issue.
With Ventura County Supervisor Steve benefit precipitously withdrawing from the race, there was a Democratic Party void (i.e. a well known Democratic POL candidate) and apparently Brownley will fill it.
Now, whether Brownley can beat Thousand Oaks based Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks and/or Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland in the June primary election (remember the top two advance to the November general election) is another story. Plus, there are other Democrats in the race which may dilute the Democratic vote.
Here are all of the candidates – so far (filing opened Monday, February 13 and will close on March 9):
- Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland
- Independent/Republican Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks
- Democrat Moorpark Councilman David Pollock
- Democrat Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jess Herrera
- Democrat Westlake Village businessman David Cruz Thayne
- Libertarian/Republican Akiva Werbalowsky
- Democrat California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley
Tony Strickland remains the front-runner in this race.
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
What amazes me Chris, is that some Americans are so willing to give up their liberty to Obama’s Big Government.
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