Archive for February 27th, 2012
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
The topsy-turvy Republican presidential race has taken another turn, this time in Mitt Romney’s favor. Romney now holds a 32% to 28% advantage over Rick Santorum after Santorum led for most of the last 10 days, including a 10-percentage-point advantage a week ago. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain well behind Romney and Santorum.
The latest results are based on Feb. 22-26 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 1,160 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide who are registered to vote. They show Romney gaining momentum nationally heading into Tuesday’s important Michigan and Arizona primaries, the first contests in nearly three weeks. Santorum surged to his first lead in Gallup’s tracking after he swept the Feb. 7 contests in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado. Santorum’s decline in recent days has come as Romney and Paul, in particular, have stepped up their criticism of his voting record in Congress and his positions on issues.
I have been sensing the change in momentum back to Mitt Romney.
The fact is that Rick Santorum does not have the resources to compete with all of the campaign cash that Mitt Romney can use attacking him with negative advertising.
So, even if Rick Santorum does not win Michigan tomorrow, but does well, the GOP field will go into Super Tuesday and Southern states where both Santorum and/or Newt Gingrich will be better positioned to win delegates.
This race is not over by a long shot.
The Republican nomination contest is entering a crucial phase with the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday and 10 state primaries or caucuses on March 6. To the extent Romney, Santorum, or one of the other candidates wins the bulk of these contests, he will likely emerge as the strong front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Although the lead has changed hands a number of times over the course of the campaign, Romney has been consistently near the top. His standing suggests he is perhaps not embraced enough by the party to emerge as the clear and consistent front-runner, but he has been better able than his rivals to withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a leading contender for the nomination.
Comments Off on President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney Regains National Poll Lead
California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley’s residence in Santa Monica, California
In a little Democrat upon Democrat warfare. Congressional candidate David Cruz Thayne mocks Assemblywoman Julia Brownley
as being an import from Santa Monica.
Democrats, let’s think this one through carefully. In the 2008 Ventura County-based state Senate race, right-wing Tony Strickland beat former Assemblymember Hannah Beth Jackson in a race that Democrats should have won given the millions that were poured into the campaign on her behalf. How did he do it? Partly by painting Jackson as a creature of Santa Barbara, where she has long lived, and which her voting record in the Assembly reflected, and making her out to be out of touch with Ventura County.
Strickland, the GOP’s endorsed candidate for Congress and its most likely run-off candidate, already has the playbook on a race like this one. Do we really want to watch a replay of that movie by serving up a Santa Monica Democrat to him and the national Republican attack machine?
Well, this is a weak argument, since there is no federal law requirement that a Congressional candidate live in the Congressional District which they represent. Plus, Brownley presently represents Oak Park, Westlake Village, Oxnard and Port Hueneme in the California Assembly. But, as I said it is an issue.
But, what distinguishes candidate Thayne from Brownley? I have been involved in Ventura County politics for decades and have never seen him involved in any issue or race. At least Brownley, who presumably has moved to Oak Park, since that is what she said she was going to do, represents part of CA-26 as an elected office holder.
The carpetbagger argument is not one Republican Tony Strickland will use against Brownley. Her liberal voting record on the Santa Monica School Board and in the California Assembly and being out of touch with the majority of voters in the more conservative Ventura County will be sufficient enough.
Tony Strickland will allow the Democrats to beat up on one another. As the front-runner who will command most all of the Republican voters in CA-26, he can sit back and watch the Dems attack each other.
2 Comments »
Posted by Flap in Pinboard Links, The Afternoon Flap, tags: #catcot, #tcot, Gingrich, Michigan, Pinboard Links, Romney, Santorum, The Afternoon Flap, Walker, Wisconsin
These are my links for February 27th from 06:55 to 13:48:
- Gingrich slams Santorum as ‘big labor Republican’ – Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Monday slammed rival Rick Santorum as a “big labor Republican,” accusing him of siding with unions over Memphis-based FedEx when the Senate grappled with a labor dispute in the 1990s.
Gingrich, the former Georgia congressman and House Speaker, is hoping to revive his struggling campaign in the South, and he tailored his message Monday to Republican voters in Tennessee. Although polls show a close race between Santorum and Mitt Romney, Gingrich challenged the former Pennsylvania senator and his conservative credentials.
- Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous – Since we ran the Michigan numbers early Monday morning, three new polls are out that make the state look more like a true toss-up and less like one that favors Mr. Romney.
Two of the surveys, from Mitchell Research and American Research Group, in fact give Rick Santorum a nominal lead in Michigan, by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively. The third, from Rasmussen Reports, gives Mr. Romney a 2-point advantage.
We also added a hard-to-track down survey from Baydoun Consulting, which gave Mr. Romney an 8-point advantage. However, it is less recent than the others, having been conducted on Thursday night rather than over the weekend.
Among the five polls that were conducted over the weekend — including those that had been included with the previous update — three give Mr. Romney a small lead while two show an edge for Mr. Santorum.
Mr. Romney still has the advantage in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, but it is more tenuous than the one we released overnight. The model gives him a 64 percent chance of winning the state, down from 77 percent in the previous forecast.
- GOP Referendum on California State Senate Districts Qualifies for November Ballot – But Who Cares? » Flap’s California Blog – GOP Referendum on California State Senate Districts Qualifies for November Ballot – But Who Cares?
- Untitled (http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/27/4294955/california-ag-calls-for-fannie.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#mi_rss=Latest%20News) – RT @CapitolAlert: RT @sacbee_news: California AG calls for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to halt foreclosures
- The Recall Elections Blog: The Walker Recall: What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Recall – With the news that Scott Walker is not going to challenge the signatures, the gubernatorial recall is going forward. The Wisconsin GAB is set to rule today on all six recalls — against the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and four Republican state Senators — have qualified for the ballot. From numerous press reports, and from the past history with signature verification, the recalls are very likely to be approved. The only recall that is in any doubt is against the Majority Leader of the Wisconsin state Senate, Scott Fitzgerald.
This would represent the second year in a row that we are staring at an unprecedented use of the recall. This recall could have an effect well beyond Wisconsin. There are potential dangers for both sides.
Let’s look at some of the history and background on the use of the recall:
- Governor Scott Walker will not challenge recall signatures – Gov. Scott Walker will not challenge any signatures by Monday’s deadline in an attempt to stop a recall election against him.
That leaves only a review by state elections officials standing between the Republican governor and only the third recall election for a governor is U.S. history. An independent conservative group released its own analysis of the recall petitions Monday, but state elections officials said the law does not allow it to count those outside challenges.
“We are not filing any specific challenges to any specific signatures today,” Walker campaign spokeswoman Ciara Matthews said. “We simply ran out of time.”
Organizers gathered more than 1 million signatures in 60 days seeking to force the recall – well over the 540,000 valid signatures needed. Over the last month, Walker and Republicans have been examining the signatures seeking to find ones to challenge as invalid.
In a filing Monday, Walker’s campaign called on the elections agency to continue its official review of the signatures.
Government Accountability Board spokesman Reid Magney confirmed that the elections agency would continue that review, including the search for incomplete, duplicate or fraudulent signatures. Currently, the agency has until March 19 to complete that review but Magney said he wasn’t sure how much time it would take.
“That’s something we’re obviously still working on,” Magney said.
- Video: California Legislative Analyst’s Office – The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update » Flap’s California Blog – Video: California Legislative Analyst’s Office – The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update
- CD-8: Former California Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams to Run for Open Congressional Seat | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CD-8: Former California Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams to Run for Open Congressional Seat
- The Morning Flap: February 27, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: February 27, 2012
- California State Senator Sharon Runner Receives Double Lung Transplant » Flap’s California Blog – California State Senator Sharon Runner Receives Double Lung Transplant
- AD-66: Candidates in Swing District Court Centrist Voters » Flap’s California Blog – AD-66: Candidates in Swing District Court Centrist Voters
- Substituting Smokeless Tobacco for Smoking Will Save Lives? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Substituting Smokeless Tobacco for Smoking Will Save Lives?
- LinkedIn Rolls Out ‘Follow Company’ Buttons for Brands – RT @mashable: LinkedIn Rolls Out ‘Follow Company’ Button for Brands –
- Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball » Crystal Ball projection: Michigan & Arizona – RT @LarrySabato: IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: On Friday, the Crystal Ball projected wins for Romney in AZ & MI:
- Hawaii Continues as the Best State for Well-Being | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Hawaii Continues as the Best State for Well-Being
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 27, 2012 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 27, 2012
Comments Off on The Afternoon Flap: February 27, 2012
This probably won’t make the National Republican Congressional Committte or California conservatives too happy.
Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is looking to return to politics with a bid for an open inland Southern California congressional seat.
Adams, who recently changed his registration to decline-to-state, plans to run as a “no party preference” candidate on the ballot for the 8th Congressional District. The Republican-leaning seat, which stretches along the Nevada border, has attracted a handful of candidates already, including Assemblyman Paul Cook, R-Yucca Valley, and Minuteman Greg Imus, a former chief of staff to GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly.
Adams, of Hesperia, decided not to run for a third and final terms in the state Assembly in 2010 after surviving a recall effort sparked by his vote to temporarily increase taxes as part of a 2009 budget deal. He said at the time that he wanted to try to pass the bar exam and finish a novel he had been working on.
The new California top two election system may very well play to Anthony Adams strength – moderate Republican and independent voters.
Certainly, it is in the realm of possibility that Adams could be running against his former party in November.
The demographics of California CD-8 are here.
1 Comment »
Posted by Flap in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap, tags: #catcot, Arizona, California, Crime, Death_Penalty, Election, EPA, GOP, Iran, Israel, journalism, Meckler, Media, Murder, Nuclear, Obama, ObamCare, Pinboard Links, Politics, Polling, Rodgers, Romney, Santorum, Strickland, Tea_Party, The Morning Flap, Twitter, Walker, Wisconsin
Graphic from Brian Solis
These are my links for February 24th through February 27th:
- The State of the Twitterverse 2012 – Brian Solis – The first time I wrote about Twitter was March 2007. My, how time and Tweets fly. With 500 million registered users and 33 billion Tweets flying across the Twitterverse every day, Twitter has become a fabric of our digital culture. Twitter is now ingrained in our digital DNA and is reflected in our lifestyle and how we connect and communicate with one another.
While many struggle to understand its utility or its significance in the greater world of media, it is the most efficient global information network in existence today. News no longer breaks, it Tweets. People have demonstrated the speed and efficacy of social networking by connecting to one another based on interests (interest graph) rather then limiting connections to relationships (social graph). Twitter represents a promising intersection of new media, relationships, traditional media and information to form one highly human network.
I recently stumbled upon a well done infographic created by Infographic Labs to communicate the state of of the Twitterverse. It’s quite grand in its design. So, to help get the most out of it, I’ve dissected it into smaller byte-sized portions.
- Southern California Most Infamous Murderers – And, why California needs to retain the death penalty.
- Santorum maintains lead in Ohio –
- Romney headed for an Arizona rout – Public Policy Polling –
- Barbour: Romney Loss in Michigan Would be ‘A Real Setback’ –
- Poll Watch: Santorum Back on Top Over Romney in Michigan –
- Poll: Obama holds double digit leads over Romney and Santorum –
- AP News: Romney-Santorum clash turns next to Ohio –
- Swing states poll: Health care victories hurt Obama and Romney in 2012 –
- Log In – The New York Times – U.S. Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb
- U.S. Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb – Even as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said in a new report Friday that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb.
- Stages in Developing a Nuclear Nation – A report by international nuclear inspectors offers new details about Iran’s nuclear program. While Iran has increased production of a type of fuel needed to create the core of a nuclear bomb, it stops short of crossing that line
- 55% Oppose Affirmative Action Policies for College Admissions – The U.S. Supreme Court last week agreed to hear a case involving the use of race as a factor in college admissions. Most voters oppose the use of so-called affirmative action policies at colleges and universities and continue to believe those policies have not been successful despite being in place for 50 years.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 24% of Likely U.S. Voters favor applying affirmative action policies to college admissions. Fifty-five percent (55%) oppose the use of such policies to determine who is admitted to colleges and universities. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.
- Mexican Methamphetamine Replacing American Domestic Supply | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Mexican Methamphetamine Replacng American Domestic Supply
- Flap’s California Sunday Collection: February 26, 2012 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Sunday Collection: February 26, 2012
- EPA Needs More Time to Reconsider Boiler MACT Rules – American workers and the industries that employ them face an ill-thought out and incomplete set of Boiler MACT regulations costing $14 billion to implement. Given current economic realities, these regulations place at risk the jobs of your constituents and 200,000 working Americans across the country. With the economic climate as it is now, we cannot afford to lose too many more American manufacturing jobs.
The EPA asked for proper time to reconsider the Boiler MACT rules, and even attempted to stay the rules to have more time to clarify them. The forest products industry, for example, is compiling additional data at the EPA’s request, but may not have time to complete needed testing. The courts have made it clear that only Congress can give the EPA the time they have asked for and need to provide clarity. As a result, this legal uncertainty is a cloud over American businesses, which must be able to plan for the future in these uncertain economic times. Our communities deserve environmental rules that have been fully considered, and will hold up scientifically in the long term
- President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – RE: Romney and T-Paw – Wow!
Even Mitch Daniels would look good.
I’ll take any of the POLS you mentioned.
- “Cutting the Bureaucratic Gridlock” by Senator Tony Strickland – While I was visiting Teixeira Farms to discuss agricultural issues, the owners told me that one state agency said they needed to recycle all their water, while another state agency said they couldn’t recycle any of their water. The owners of the farm told me they were happy to do whatever was needed, but they couldn’t recycle all their water and none of their water at the same time.
Sadly, this isn’t the first time something like this has happened. Constituents and small business owners in my district often call my office, telling me that one state agency has given them the run-around about an issue and referred them to yet another state agency. Round and round they go, from agency to agency, until they finally give up.
Cleary, California’s vast bureaucracy is not working. There has to be a way to make government more efficient and maximize your precious tax dollars that come to Sacramento.
This is why I’ve authored Senate Bill 953. SB 953 would create the Bureaucracy Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC). SB 953 is modeled and named after the successful Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program, which was established by the federal government after the end of the Cold War. The Federal BRAC program successfully identified and closed obsolete military bases, saving an estimated $20 billion annually.
- State party chief wants GOP candidates to rally around statewide theme – Tacitly acknowledging that the California Republican Party will likely be strapped for funds to support candidates in the tough new districts in which many of them will be running this fall, Chairman Tom Del Beccaro said Friday he hopes GOP candidates will rally around “statewide themes” to maximize the party’s efforts.
“We need to make this a statewide election around an issue that coalesces voters,” he said at a news conference at the opening of the state GOP convention. “We can’t be the party of no. Parties become more attractive when they have positive ideas.”
- President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – RE: It will be worse than McCain in 2008 because we know more about Obama (and what he will do in his second term) a…
- Day By Day February 26, 2012 – Privates | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day February 26, 2012 – Privates
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-26 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-26
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-26 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-26
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-25 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-25
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-25 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-02-25
- Co-founder Mark Meckler resigns from Tea Party Patriots – Mark Meckler, the co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, has resigned from his role with the grassroots group over internal disputes about the leadership of the organization, The Daily Caller has learned.
In an email obtained by TheDC, Meckler told the state coordinators of Tea Party Patriots on Thursday night that he “fought long and hard” to maintain the group “as an organization that is run from the bottom up, with the intent of serving the grassroots.”
“Unfortunately, it is my belief that I have lost this fight,” Meckler said. “I probably fought the internal fight longer than I should have, but I wanted to give absolutely every possible effort to preserving what I believe was the unique nature of the TPP organization.”
Since the organization’s founding, Meckler has shared the role of national coordinator with co-founder Jenny Beth Martin. But Meckler wrote in the email that he had lost “influence in the leadership of the organization, and it has been that way for quite some time.”
Meckler said the board granted Martin “almost complete power over the day-to-day operations” in November 2011 after a “protracted fight in which I was complaining about the direction, operation (top-down) and finances of the organization.”
- Poll Watch: Contraception Issue Divides Americans | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Poll Watch: Contraception Issue Divides Americans
- The Weekly Power List: 02.24.12: Death Race 2012: GQ on Politics: GQ – The Weekly Power List: 02.24.12: Death Race 2012: GQ on Politics: GQ
- A talk with Scott Walker – For many conservatives frustrated with the Republican Party, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has been a bright spot. After taking office last year in a bluish state, Walker set out to close a $3.6 billion budget hole, in part, by reforming public sector unions. His reforms, which gave workers choices as to whether they wanted to join a union and curbed union collective bargaining powers that were crippling local budgets, sparked a wave a protests. But Walker stood firm and prevailed. Now unions plan to spend tens of millions of dollars on a campaign to recall him, with an election anticipated by June.
On Thursday, the Washington Examiner spoke with Walker by telephone about his reforms, the upcoming recall election, his decision to reject Obamacare funding, his views about the proper role of government and the extended Republican presidential primary.
- California Field Poll: Millionaires Tax Out Polling Governor Jerry Brown’s Tax Increase Measure » Flap’s California Blog – California Field Poll: Millionaires Tax Out Polling Governor Jerry Brown’s Tax Increase Measure
- California Assemblyman Tim Donnelly Charged Over Airport Gun in His Briefcase » Flap’s California Blog – California Assemblyman Tim Donnelly Charged Over Airport Gun in His Briefcase
- Los Angeles Times Launches Paywall Subscription Service » Flap’s California Blog – Los Angeles Times Launches Paywall Subscription Service
- (403) http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/02/24/abc-is-up-year-to-year-and-week-to-week-in-late-night-as-nbc-and-cbs-decline/121841/?utm_campaign=WP%3ETwitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter – RT @TVbytheNumbers: ABC is Up Year to Year and Week to Week in Late-Night, as NBC and CBS Decline
- Los Angeles Times launches new membership program – The Los Angeles Times will begin charging readers for access to its online news, joining a growing roster of major news organizations looking for a way to offset declines in revenue.
Starting March 5, online readers will be asked to buy a digital subscription at an initial rate of 99 cents for four weeks. Readers who do not subscribe will be able to read 15 stories in a 30-day period for free.
Separately, The Times announced plans to launch a new weekly lifestyle section called Saturday for its print subscribers.
Other news outlets that have begun charging for online journalism include the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Dallas Morning News. Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper company, this week announced plans to launch a similar program at 80 publications, saying it could boost earnings by $100 million in 2013.
- LA Times puts up a web paywall * – LA Observed – RT @LAObserved: LA Times paywall will settle in at base rate of $3.99 for 4 weeks, with 15 free stories first.
- Untitled (http://twitter.com/CAGOP/status/173116438477934593/photo/1) – RT @CAGOP: The @CAGOP Press Room is open. Credentialed media can pick up their passes in Sandpebble D.
- U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb – As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don’t believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.
A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.
The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.
Although Iran continues to enrich uranium at low levels, U.S. officials say they have not seen evidence that has caused them to significantly revise that judgment. Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.
- Could California swing the Republican nomination? – If no clear front-runner in the delegate count emerges by the end of April, Texas and California will move to the center of the political universe. These two gigantic, expensive states could then hold the keys to the nomination and determine whether we are headed for a brokered convention.
What would a hotly contested California Republican primary campaign, unseen in decades, look like? Certainly it would be very expensive, and waged almost entirely on television. The state is too big to quickly organize on a district level (ask anyone who has run for statewide office in California), making broadcast media critical. A quick bus tour, some fly-arounds and earned media stops would make up the rest. An insurgent candidate could also conceivably attempt to organize the small number of Republicans who live in heavily Democratic congressional districts in Los Angeles to score a few delegates.
California’s primary is “closed,” meaning only registered Republicans may participate. This results in a more conservative electorate than in “open” primary states where voters of other affiliations may vote in the Republican primary.
Although California votes late enough to be winner-take-all, it isn’t. Under rules adopted in 2000 and first put into effect in 2004, the California Republican Party will allocate delegates proportionally by congressional district. In 2008, John McCain won in 48 of 53 districts, with Mitt Romney winning in the remaining five.
- The Morning Flap: February 24, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: February 24, 2012
Comments Off on The Morning Flap: February 27, 2012