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Archive for February 27th, 2012

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According to the latest Gallup Poll.

The topsy-turvy Republican presidential race has taken another turn, this time in Mitt Romney’s favor. Romney now holds a 32% to 28% advantage over Rick Santorum after Santorum led for most of the last 10 days, including a 10-percentage-point advantage a week ago. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain well behind Romney and Santorum.

The latest results are based on Feb. 22-26 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 1,160 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide who are registered to vote. They show Romney gaining momentum nationally heading into Tuesday’s important Michigan and Arizona primaries, the first contests in nearly three weeks. Santorum surged to his first lead in Gallup’s tracking after he swept the Feb. 7 contests in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado. Santorum’s decline in recent days has come as Romney and Paul, in particular, have stepped up their criticism of his voting record in Congress and his positions on issues.

I have been sensing the change in momentum back to Mitt Romney.

The fact is that Rick Santorum does not have the resources to compete with all of the campaign cash that Mitt Romney can use attacking him with negative advertising.

So, even if Rick Santorum does not win Michigan tomorrow, but does well, the GOP field will go into Super Tuesday and Southern states where both Santorum and/or Newt Gingrich will be better positioned to win delegates.

This race is not over by a long shot.

The Republican nomination contest is entering a crucial phase with the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday and 10 state primaries or caucuses on March 6. To the extent Romney, Santorum, or one of the other candidates wins the bulk of these contests, he will likely emerge as the strong front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Although the lead has changed hands a number of times over the course of the campaign, Romney has been consistently near the top. His standing suggests he is perhaps not embraced enough by the party to emerge as the clear and consistent front-runner, but he has been better able than his rivals to withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a leading contender for the nomination.

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California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley’s residence in Santa Monica, California

In a little Democrat upon Democrat warfare. Congressional candidate David Cruz Thayne mocks Assemblywoman Julia Brownley as being an import from Santa Monica.

Democrats, let’s think this one through carefully.  In the 2008 Ventura County-based state Senate race, right-wing Tony Strickland beat former Assemblymember Hannah Beth Jackson in a race that Democrats should have won given the millions that were poured into the campaign on her behalf.  How did he do it?  Partly by painting Jackson as a creature of Santa Barbara, where she has long lived, and which her voting record in the Assembly reflected, and making her out to be out of touch with Ventura County.

Strickland, the GOP’s endorsed candidate for Congress and its most likely run-off candidate, already has the playbook on a race like this one.  Do we really want to watch a replay of that movie by serving up a Santa Monica Democrat to him and the national Republican attack machine?

Well, this is a weak argument, since there is no federal law requirement that a Congressional candidate live in the Congressional District which they represent. Plus, Brownley presently represents Oak Park, Westlake Village, Oxnard and Port Hueneme in the California Assembly. But, as I said it is an issue.

But, what distinguishes candidate Thayne from Brownley? I have been involved in Ventura County politics for decades and have never seen him involved in any issue or race. At least Brownley, who presumably has moved to Oak Park, since that is what she said she was going to do, represents part of CA-26 as an elected office holder.

The carpetbagger argument is not one Republican Tony Strickland will use against Brownley. Her liberal voting record on the Santa Monica School Board and in the California Assembly and being out of touch with the majority of voters in the more conservative Ventura County will be sufficient enough.

Tony Strickland will allow the Democrats to beat up on one another. As the front-runner who will command most all of the Republican voters in CA-26, he can sit back and watch the Dems attack each other.

Have fun.

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These are my links for February 27th from 06:55 to 13:48:

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This probably won’t make the National Republican Congressional Committte or California conservatives too happy.

 

Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is looking to return to politics with a bid for an open inland Southern California congressional seat.

Adams, who recently changed his registration to decline-to-state, plans to run as a “no party preference” candidate on the ballot for the 8th Congressional District. The Republican-leaning seat, which stretches along the Nevada border, has attracted a handful of candidates already, including Assemblyman Paul Cook, R-Yucca Valley, and Minuteman Greg Imus, a former chief of staff to GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly.

Adams, of Hesperia, decided not to run for a third and final terms in the state Assembly in 2010 after surviving a recall effort sparked by his vote to temporarily increase taxes as part of a 2009 budget deal. He said at the time that he wanted to try to pass the bar exam and finish a novel he had been working on.

The new California top two election system may very well play to Anthony Adams strength – moderate Republican and independent voters.

Certainly, it is in the realm of possibility that Adams could be running against his former party in November.

The demographics of California CD-8 are here.

Stay tuned…

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