Archive for February 27th, 2012
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
The topsy-turvy Republican presidential race has taken another turn, this time in Mitt Romney’s favor. Romney now holds a 32% to 28% advantage over Rick Santorum after Santorum led for most of the last 10 days, including a 10-percentage-point advantage a week ago. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain well behind Romney and Santorum.
The latest results are based on Feb. 22-26 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 1,160 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide who are registered to vote. They show Romney gaining momentum nationally heading into Tuesday’s important Michigan and Arizona primaries, the first contests in nearly three weeks. Santorum surged to his first lead in Gallup’s tracking after he swept the Feb. 7 contests in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado. Santorum’s decline in recent days has come as Romney and Paul, in particular, have stepped up their criticism of his voting record in Congress and his positions on issues.
I have been sensing the change in momentum back to Mitt Romney.
The fact is that Rick Santorum does not have the resources to compete with all of the campaign cash that Mitt Romney can use attacking him with negative advertising.
So, even if Rick Santorum does not win Michigan tomorrow, but does well, the GOP field will go into Super Tuesday and Southern states where both Santorum and/or Newt Gingrich will be better positioned to win delegates.
This race is not over by a long shot.
The Republican nomination contest is entering a crucial phase with the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday and 10 state primaries or caucuses on March 6. To the extent Romney, Santorum, or one of the other candidates wins the bulk of these contests, he will likely emerge as the strong front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Although the lead has changed hands a number of times over the course of the campaign, Romney has been consistently near the top. His standing suggests he is perhaps not embraced enough by the party to emerge as the clear and consistent front-runner, but he has been better able than his rivals to withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a leading contender for the nomination.
, President 2012
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California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley’s residence in Santa Monica, California
In a little Democrat upon Democrat warfare. Congressional candidate David Cruz Thayne mocks Assemblywoman Julia Brownley
as being an import from Santa Monica.
Democrats, let’s think this one through carefully. In the 2008 Ventura County-based state Senate race, right-wing Tony Strickland beat former Assemblymember Hannah Beth Jackson in a race that Democrats should have won given the millions that were poured into the campaign on her behalf. How did he do it? Partly by painting Jackson as a creature of Santa Barbara, where she has long lived, and which her voting record in the Assembly reflected, and making her out to be out of touch with Ventura County.
Strickland, the GOP’s endorsed candidate for Congress and its most likely run-off candidate, already has the playbook on a race like this one. Do we really want to watch a replay of that movie by serving up a Santa Monica Democrat to him and the national Republican attack machine?
Well, this is a weak argument, since there is no federal law requirement that a Congressional candidate live in the Congressional District which they represent. Plus, Brownley presently represents Oak Park, Westlake Village, Oxnard and Port Hueneme in the California Assembly. But, as I said it is an issue.
But, what distinguishes candidate Thayne from Brownley? I have been involved in Ventura County politics for decades and have never seen him involved in any issue or race. At least Brownley, who presumably has moved to Oak Park, since that is what she said she was going to do, represents part of CA-26 as an elected office holder.
The carpetbagger argument is not one Republican Tony Strickland will use against Brownley. Her liberal voting record on the Santa Monica School Board and in the California Assembly and being out of touch with the majority of voters in the more conservative Ventura County will be sufficient enough.
Tony Strickland will allow the Democrats to beat up on one another. As the front-runner who will command most all of the Republican voters in CA-26, he can sit back and watch the Dems attack each other.
, David Cruz Thayne
, Julia Brownley
, Tony Strickland
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These are my links for February 27th from 06:55 to 13:48:
- Gingrich slams Santorum as ‘big labor Republican’ – Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Monday slammed rival Rick Santorum as a “big labor Republican,” accusing him of siding with unions over Memphis-based FedEx when the Senate grappled with a labor dispute in the 1990s.
Gingrich, the former Georgia congressman and House Speaker, is hoping to revive his struggling campaign in the South, and he tailored his message Monday to Republican voters in Tennessee. Although polls show a close race between Santorum and Mitt Romney, Gingrich challenged the former Pennsylvania senator and his conservative credentials.
- Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous – Since we ran the Michigan numbers early Monday morning, three new polls are out that make the state look more like a true toss-up and less like one that favors Mr. Romney.
Two of the surveys, from Mitchell Research and American Research Group, in fact give Rick Santorum a nominal lead in Michigan, by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively. The third, from Rasmussen Reports, gives Mr. Romney a 2-point advantage.
We also added a hard-to-track down survey from Baydoun Consulting, which gave Mr. Romney an 8-point advantage. However, it is less recent than the others, having been conducted on Thursday night rather than over the weekend.
Among the five polls that were conducted over the weekend — including those that had been included with the previous update — three give Mr. Romney a small lead while two show an edge for Mr. Santorum.
Mr. Romney still has the advantage in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, but it is more tenuous than the one we released overnight. The model gives him a 64 percent chance of winning the state, down from 77 percent in the previous forecast.
- GOP Referendum on California State Senate Districts Qualifies for November Ballot – But Who Cares? » Flap’s California Blog – GOP Referendum on California State Senate Districts Qualifies for November Ballot – But Who Cares?
- Untitled (http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/27/4294955/california-ag-calls-for-fannie.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#mi_rss=Latest%20News) – RT @CapitolAlert: RT @sacbee_news: California AG calls for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to halt foreclosures
- The Recall Elections Blog: The Walker Recall: What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Recall – With the news that Scott Walker is not going to challenge the signatures, the gubernatorial recall is going forward. The Wisconsin GAB is set to rule today on all six recalls — against the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and four Republican state Senators — have qualified for the ballot. From numerous press reports, and from the past history with signature verification, the recalls are very likely to be approved. The only recall that is in any doubt is against the Majority Leader of the Wisconsin state Senate, Scott Fitzgerald.
This would represent the second year in a row that we are staring at an unprecedented use of the recall. This recall could have an effect well beyond Wisconsin. There are potential dangers for both sides.
Let’s look at some of the history and background on the use of the recall:
- Governor Scott Walker will not challenge recall signatures – Gov. Scott Walker will not challenge any signatures by Monday’s deadline in an attempt to stop a recall election against him.
That leaves only a review by state elections officials standing between the Republican governor and only the third recall election for a governor is U.S. history. An independent conservative group released its own analysis of the recall petitions Monday, but state elections officials said the law does not allow it to count those outside challenges.
“We are not filing any specific challenges to any specific signatures today,” Walker campaign spokeswoman Ciara Matthews said. “We simply ran out of time.”
Organizers gathered more than 1 million signatures in 60 days seeking to force the recall – well over the 540,000 valid signatures needed. Over the last month, Walker and Republicans have been examining the signatures seeking to find ones to challenge as invalid.
In a filing Monday, Walker’s campaign called on the elections agency to continue its official review of the signatures.
Government Accountability Board spokesman Reid Magney confirmed that the elections agency would continue that review, including the search for incomplete, duplicate or fraudulent signatures. Currently, the agency has until March 19 to complete that review but Magney said he wasn’t sure how much time it would take.
“That’s something we’re obviously still working on,” Magney said.
- Video: California Legislative Analyst’s Office – The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update » Flap’s California Blog – Video: California Legislative Analyst’s Office – The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update
- CD-8: Former California Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams to Run for Open Congressional Seat | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CD-8: Former California Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams to Run for Open Congressional Seat
- The Morning Flap: February 27, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: February 27, 2012
- California State Senator Sharon Runner Receives Double Lung Transplant » Flap’s California Blog – California State Senator Sharon Runner Receives Double Lung Transplant
- AD-66: Candidates in Swing District Court Centrist Voters » Flap’s California Blog – AD-66: Candidates in Swing District Court Centrist Voters
- Substituting Smokeless Tobacco for Smoking Will Save Lives? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Substituting Smokeless Tobacco for Smoking Will Save Lives?
- LinkedIn Rolls Out ‘Follow Company’ Buttons for Brands – RT @mashable: LinkedIn Rolls Out ‘Follow Company’ Button for Brands –
- Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball » Crystal Ball projection: Michigan & Arizona – RT @LarrySabato: IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: On Friday, the Crystal Ball projected wins for Romney in AZ & MI:
- Hawaii Continues as the Best State for Well-Being | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Hawaii Continues as the Best State for Well-Being
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 27, 2012 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: February 27, 2012
, Pinboard Links
, The Afternoon Flap
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This probably won’t make the National Republican Congressional Committte or California conservatives too happy.
Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is looking to return to politics with a bid for an open inland Southern California congressional seat.
Adams, who recently changed his registration to decline-to-state, plans to run as a “no party preference” candidate on the ballot for the 8th Congressional District. The Republican-leaning seat, which stretches along the Nevada border, has attracted a handful of candidates already, including Assemblyman Paul Cook, R-Yucca Valley, and Minuteman Greg Imus, a former chief of staff to GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly.
Adams, of Hesperia, decided not to run for a third and final terms in the state Assembly in 2010 after surviving a recall effort sparked by his vote to temporarily increase taxes as part of a 2009 budget deal. He said at the time that he wanted to try to pass the bar exam and finish a novel he had been working on.
The new California top two election system may very well play to Anthony Adams strength – moderate Republican and independent voters.
Certainly, it is in the realm of possibility that Adams could be running against his former party in November.
The demographics of California CD-8 are here.
Tags: Anthony Adams
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