• Alan Werbalowsky,  CA-26,  David Cruz Thayne,  David Pollock,  Jess Herrera,  Julia Brownley,  Linda Parks,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Democrat David Pollock Will NOT Run for Congress

    The Bad New Bears Star and Moorpark City Councilman has decided not to file tomorrow for a Congressional race.

    “I am writing to let you know that I have suspended my campaign for Congress,” Pollock said in prepared statement emailed to supporters. “This was one of the most difficult decisions I have ever had to make, and I want to assure you that my campaign team and consultants considered every possible path forward.

    “Because of the way the candidate field formed, there was a strong possibility of an unfavorable outcome not only for me but the other Democrats in the race. From the beginning, this race was not about me; it was about bringing real change to our representation in Ventura County and a voice of reason to Congress.”

    Obviously, Democratic Party leaders have prevailed on Pollock to get out of the race. This is to give Democratic California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley a chance at winning a top two spot in the June primary election against two better known Ventura County politicians, Tony Strickland and Linda Parks.

    I doubt the other two remaining Democrats will withdraw since they have already stated they are in for good.

    But, you never know what the Democratic Party will offer to clear a field.

    Tomorrow night at 5 PM, the filing deadline we will be able to examine the field of candidates.

    So far, this is what we have:

    • Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland
    • Independent/No Party Preference Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks
    • Democrat California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley
    • Democrat Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jess Herrera
    • Democrat Westlake Village businessman David Cruz Thayne
    • Libertarian/Republican Akiva Werbalowsky

    Stay tuned….

  • CA-26,  David Cruz Thayne,  David Pollock,  Jess Herrera,  Julia Brownley,  Linda Parks,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Democrats Attacking Democrats Over Julia Brownley Carpetbagging Issue

    Well, I said it would be an issue and some of the Democrats in this congressional race cannot help themselves from piling on Democratic California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley.

    Democrats David Pollock, David Cruz Thayne, Jess Herrera and Assemblywoman Julia Brownley are all vying for the democratic vote after county supervisor and front-runner Steve Bennett backed out of the race on the verge of receiving an endorsement at the party’s state convention on Feb. 11.

    Here is the action:

    “This is about stating the facts,” said Alex Thompson, campaign manager for Thayne. “The matter is, Brownley has said she represents 50,000 people in Ventura County. The matter is, she represents them but doesn’t have an office here. She is trying to hide the fact she is from Santa Monica.” Thompson said there is “absolutely not a chance” for Thayne to pull out of the race.

    Candidate and Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Herrera said the district needs somebody who was born and raised in the area to rightly understand its constituents. The fact that Brownley recently moved here from Santa Monica doesn’t sit well with Herrera.

    “When have you seen someone from Oxnard or Camarillo represent L.A. County or Santa Barbara?” asked Herrera, who said he also has no intention of backing out of the race.

    In the meantime, Republican State Senator Tony Strickland and independent Ventura county Supervisor Linda Parks will sit back and let the numerous Democrats divide up the vote and portray the one Democrat who could possible beat them as a carpetbagger.

    The filing deadline is tomorrow at 5 PM.

    Wonder if any of these candidates will be persuaded by the Democratic Party to withdraw.

    We will see.

  • Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 9.1 Per Cent



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December.

    The 0.5-percentage-point increase in February compared with January is the largest such month-to-month change Gallup has recorded in its not-seasonally adjusted measure since December 2010, when the rate rose 0.8 points to 9.6% from 8.8% in November. A year ago, Gallup recorded a February increase of 0.4 percentage points, to 10.3% from 9.9% in January 2011.

    And, the Underemployment Rate has increased:

    Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed and the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, increased to 19.1% in February from 18.7% in January.

    Here is the chart:

    Remember the pundit-accepted unemployment rate threshold required for re-election of the current President of 8%.

    The one exception was when Ronald Reagan was President and the economy was demonstrably improving.

    Today, the US. Unemployment rate continues above 8 per cent and it not improving = warning signs to the White House.

    All of this in advance of tomorrow’s U.S. government’s release of its unemployment rate numbers. Let’s see if they show the same trend, as some have surmised that the Obama Administration Labor Department is massaging the numbers.

    The February unemployment rate the U.S. government reports on Friday morning will be based largely on mid-month conditions. In mid-February, Gallup reported that its U.S. unemployment rate had increased to 9.0% from 8.3% in mid-January. The mid-month reading normally provides a relatively good estimate of the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate for the month.

    Assuming the government’s unadjusted rate increases — from its 8.8% in January — to at least match Gallup’s mid-month measurement for February, then the government should also report an increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February. If the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate increases to the degree that Gallup’s has from mid-month to mid-month, then the government’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could show an even larger increase.

    However, the extent of the seasonal adjustment also makes a difference. Last February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics applied a seasonal adjustment factor of 0.5 points to its unadjusted unemployment rate for the month. If that same seasonal adjustment is applied to Gallup’s mid-month unemployment rate of 9.0%, it would produce a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 8.5%. Alternatively, if it was applied to Gallup’s full-month unemployment rate of 9.1%, it would produce a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.6%. Gallup therefore forecasts an increase in the unemployment rate.

    Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show a substantial deterioration since mid-January. In this context, the increase in unemployment as measured by Gallup may, at least partly, reflect growth in the workforce, as more Americans who had given up looking for work become slightly more optimistic and start looking for work again. So while there may be positive signs, the reality Gallup finds is that more Americans are looking for work now than were doing so just six weeks ago.

  • Afghanistan,  Buck McKeon,  CA-25

    CA-25: Rep Buck McKeon Proposes Afghanistan Surge

    I suppose Rep Buck McKeon will discuss his Afghanistan Surge proposal at this speech.

    With some calling for a rush to the exits in Afghanistan after two weeks of heightened violence, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee is looking to add troops into the mix. The bill, should it gain traction, could force the U.S. to change its current drawdown plans.

    California’s Rep. Buck McKeon introduced a new bill that calls for U.S. military to guard U.S. entities, replacing the thousands of private security guards and Afghan nationals that are currently being used.

    In calling for the bill, McKeon notes increasing incidents of Afghan military attacking U.S. and NATO troops. Afghan soldiers and government workers have murdered six American troops since the news that U.S. troops accidentally burned some Qurans and religious material. In the last five years Afghan forces have attacked NATO troops nearly 200 times, killing at least 70 coalition troops and wounding more than 100. An Army report declassified last year found that American troops think Afghan forces are dangerous and unstable. And many Afghan soldiers and police “demonstrated a general loathing of US soldiers.”

    The bill does not specify the number of troops needed but a congressional aide told Security Clearance that the expectation would be that it would not need to be a one-for-one swap of U.S. troops for Afghanistan and private security guards because “American forces would be far more capable and efficient.”

    The legislation does allow that if the President does not want to add troops, he would have to certify that using Afghan nationals and private security contractors would provide a level of security equal to what would be provided by U.S. troops.

    The President will never allow Congressman McKeon to dictate to him on the Afghanistan issue. Nor, would Democrat Senate majority leader ever allow this bill come up for a vote in the U.S. Senate, even if it passed the House.

    So, what is the real reason for this bill?

    Dante Acosta.

    I will have a post up later on this military father, Dante ACosta, who will be running against Buck McKeon in the June primary election.

  • Buck McKeon,  CA-25,  Patricia McKeon

    CA-25: The Heat is On Rep Buck McKeon Over Defense Contractor Contributions

    Rep. Buck McKeon and his wife, Patricia, a candidate for California Assembly

    There is another expose out today linking Santa Clarita Valley Republican Congressman Buck McKeon, his wife Patricia McKeon who is a candidate for the California Assembly and the defense industry.

    In past years, it has not been surprising that the chairmen of the House of Representatives of the Armed Services Committee have taken many large campaign contributions from defense contractors. It has happened through many sessions of Congress and included both Republican and Democratic chairmen. So, an article on the current chairman of the Armed Services Committee taking campaign contributions from defense contractors would seem to be an obvious and redundant read.

    However, Chairman Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-California) has taken self-dealing to new heights and is having those same contractors contribute to his wife’s campaign for the California legislature. The explanations from his wife’s campaign flack and the contractors would be funny if it weren’t so brazen.

    Read it all.

    Looks to me that my Congressman Elton Gallegly should have run against Buck McKeon to at least clear the GOP Field and preserve this seat for the GOP.

    I am wondering what candidates will come out of the woodwork by the end of filing tomorrow at 5 PM. I suspect there will be a few to challenge the House Armed Services Chairman McKeon who seems to have an extreme ethics problem.

    I don’t think his wife’s candidacy for the California Assembly will help him much. I am covering that race at Flap’s California Blog.

    Stay tuned…..

    Enter Patricia McKeon, Buck’s wife. She has been his campaign treasurer for years and is one of the highest-paid Congressional wives. She is 70 years old and touts her role as a mother of six and a grandmother of 31. She proudly lists her background as head of the PTA and involvement in the Boy Scouts. She now has declared her candidacy for the 38th District of the California Assembly. She said that she was inspired to run after being outraged that Los Angeles plans to tax a 10-cent charge on plastic grocery bags.

    Well it turns out that many of our major defense contractors are also outraged over this tax on plastic bags and/or other regulations that might be rattling around the California State Assembly. These major companies have given this first-time candidate around 45 percent of her campaign money so far.

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: March 8, 2012

    These are my links for March 7th through March 8th:

    • New poll shows Rick Santorum leading in Alabama GOP primary – A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorum’s first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.

      The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.

      Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.

    • Armed Forces Chairman Levin wants Limbaugh dropped from military radio – The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said Wednesday that he would “love” to see controversial conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh dropped from the Armed Forces Network.

      Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) called Limbaugh’s show “offensive” and told CNN he has been “delighted” to see advertisers drop the program in the wake of outrage over Limbaugh calling a Georgetown University law student a “slut” and a “prostitute.” Sandra Fluke, the student, had testified for House Democrats in favor of the White House’s contraception coverage mandate.

    • Rubio ‘not concerned’ about long GOP primary, says no one should be told to drop out – Many Republicans are worried about the presidential primary dragging on for weeks or more, a battle that has already inflicted wounds. Not Sen. Marco Rubio.

      “We’re all impatient. We all want to know who the nominee is so we can get to work,” he said in an interview with the Buzz. “So certainly, yeah, the sooner the better. But I’m not concerned. This is the process and the process will work its way through. What I think is very important for Republicans is not to talk ourselves into this idea that somehow because we’re having a longer primary than we’ve had in past years that we’re somehow doomed to failure in November. We are going to have a nominee whether it’s next week, next month of three months from now. At that point, the election will be reframed. It will no longer be about the super PACs, or supporting Santorum vs. Romney or Gingrich or Paul. The election will become a choice between two very different people, between two very different views of America. And the election will become about the president’s record.”

      Do you think it’s time for Newt Gingrich to drop out?

      “I don’t think anybody should be told to drop out. I think people should run until they feel that either they don’t want to continue or they don’t see a path to victory. I’ve never been a believer in asking people to drop out of a race because I had a bunch of people ask me to drop out of a race.”

    • Gingrich’s future hangs on successful Southern state strategy – Republican insiders believe Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign is on its last legs and say the former House Speaker could leave the race after Tuesday’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi.

      But they also said the famously unpredictable Gingrich could confound expectations and continue on, despite pleas from some conservatives to step aside and give Rick Santorum a head-to-head matchup with Mitt Romney.

    • Dementia To Cost $200 Billion in 2012, Report Finds – Thursday, March 8, 2012
    • Hispanic Vote Not The Game Changer You Might Think It Is – Thursday, March 8, 2012 – If your family hails from Latin America and you live in a battleground state, brace yourself: politicians have finally woken up to the importance of your vote. President Obama’s re-election, pundits say, may depend on an outpouring of support from the barrios of the West and Southwest.

      Yet attracting Hispanic votes may require more investment, in more places, than either party anticipates. For all the hype about the Hispanic vote in 2012, the aftershocks of the recession may have created a logistical barrier in many states for voter registration.

      New numbers suggest that previous predictions of between 11 and 12 million Hispanic citizens voting in 2012 might be overly optimistic, said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute and the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project. Barring a major investment in registration, turnout, or both, that’s about 10.5 million votes cast.

    • Larry Sabato: Six Days on the Road to Tampa – WSJ.com – Unlike many presidential races in recent history, there probably won’t be a “eureka” moment for this GOP nomination. But there are six decisive days that will be worth watching on the road to the Republican nominating convention in Tampa. Three favor Mitt Romney and three favor his opponents.

      • March 13: Primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, caucuses in Hawaii—Mr. Romney not favored.

      In the initial nine weeks of primaries, Mr. Romney has shown a political equivalent of Wall Street’s dead-cat bounce: Victories in one week guarantee no momentum in the next. It may be about to happen again. While Mr. Romney may win moderate Hawaii, losses probably loom for him in Alabama and Mississippi.

    • Closing Tehran’s Sanctions Loopholes
    • The Chinese Military’s Great Leap Forward – China’s announcement of a more than 11 percent increase in declared military spending – following two full decades of double-digit increases – raises several uncomfortable questions for Asia and the West. It is natural for a rising power like China to develop capabilities to defend its expanding array of interests. On the other hand, China’s ascent has been made possible by a benign security environment that well served China’s goal of “peaceful development.” China’s growing military capabilities now threaten to upset that order in ways that, ironically, could complicate China’s security environment at the same time as slowing economic growth intensifies its internal challenges.
    • Republicans fear rough primary could cost them the House and the Senate – Republicans are worried the long, drawn-out presidential primary could cost them the House and the Senate.

      For months, Republicans had been bullish about their prospects for widening their margin in the House and picking off Democratic senators. But some are now questioning whether they could be done in if Mitt Romney limps out of the primary a severely weakened nominee.

    • Poll: Slim majority support Jerry Brown’s tax plan – Even though most Californians think the budget remains a big problem, just a slim majority of likely voters say they support Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposed tax initiative for the November ballot, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.

      Using the Democratic governor’s ballot title and summary for the first time, the poll found 52 percent of likely voters support temporarily raising the state sales tax and income tax on high-wage earners while 40 percent oppose doing so. Another 8 percent said they are undecided. That’s a drop from past surveys,which found majority support for his plan to temporarily raise taxes. PPIC found Brown’s proposal had 68 percent support in January, before the ballot language was finished.

    • Rush Limbaugh’s insincere critics—Michael Kinsley – Consumers who are avoiding products by Limbaugh’s advertisers are engaged in what’s known in labor law as a secondary boycott. This means boycotting a company you have no grievance with, except that it does business with someone you do have a grievance with.

      Secondary boycotts are generally frowned upon, or in some cases (not this one) actually illegal, on the grounds that enough is enough. There’s sense to that outside the labor context, too. Do we want conservatives organizing boycotts of advertisers on MSNBC, or either side boycotting companies that do business with other companies who advertise on Limbaugh’s show, or Rachel Maddow’s?

      As we all know, Limbaugh’s First Amendment rights aren’t involved here — freedom of speech means freedom from interference by the government. But the spirit of the First Amendment, which is that suppressing speech is bad, still applies. If you don’t care for something Rush Limbaugh has said, say why and say it better. If you’re on the side of truth, you have a natural advantage.

      And if you’re taking on Rush Limbaugh, you’re probably on the side of truth.

    • AD-38: Are Nuclear Weapons Buying a California Assembly Seat for Patricia McKeon? » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Are Nuclear Weapons Buying a California Assembly Seat for Patricia McKeon?
    • News from The Associated Press – RT @AP: How does the new iPad compare to the older model? Here’s a look: -EF
    • Does Saliva Quality Play an Important Role in Meth Mouth? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Does Saliva Quality Play an Important Role in Meth Mouth?
    • More Than 15% Obese in Nearly All U.S. Metro Areas – Adult obesity rates were higher than 15% in all but three of the 190 metropolitan areas that Gallup and Healthways surveyed in 2011. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas, residents were the most likely to be obese, at 38.8%, while people living in Boulder, Colo., were the least likely, at 12.1%.
    • CA-Sen: Ex- California POL Chuck DeVore Cannot Let Go | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – RE:  Chuck, your comment was held in moderation because of the link you posted, which is the same as the original pie…
    • Video: No Love Lost Between California Governor Jerry Brown and Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom? » Flap’s California Blog – Video: No Love Lost Between California Governor Jerry Brown and Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom?
    • Pingree Will Not Make Senate Bid – Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) said she won’t run for the U.S. Senate, a decision that could boost the independent Senate bid of former Gov. Angus King (I), the Portland Press Herald reports.

      Said Pingree: “This isn’t the right time for me to run for the U.S. Senate.”

      “Pingree’s decision was not unexpected. After King said Monday night that he would run as an independent, Pingree acknowledged that she shared widely discussed concerns that she and King might divide the Democratic base, thus paving the way for victory by a Republican contender.”

    • 43% Say New Candidate Should Enter GOP Race; Most Republicans Disagree – Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney may be winning the Republican presidential race, although he appears to be making himself a little less popular in the process. A plurality of voters think it would be better for the GOP if a new candidate jumped in the race, but most Republicans don’t agree.

      The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters now hold at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney, but that includes just nine percent (9%) with a Very Favorable view of him. Forty-nine percent (49%) regard Romney at least somewhat unfavorably, with 23% who share a Very Unfavorable opinion.

    • CA-Sen: Ex- California POL Chuck DeVore Cannot Let Go | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @MarkStandriff Hope you enjoy this: Running LA on the 18th
    • Flap’s California Morning Collection: March 7, 2012 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: March 7, 2012
    • California State Senator Sharon Runner Released from the Hospital » Flap’s California Blog – California State Senator Sharon Runner Released from the Hospital
    • The Morning Flap: March 7, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: March 7, 2012
    • U.S. Job Creation Declines in February – Hiring Down and Firing Up | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – U.S. Job Creation Declines in February – Hiring Down and Firing Up
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: March 7, 2012 – The Morning Drill: March 7, 2012
  • Barack Obama,  Bill Maher,  Day By Day,  Rush Limbaugh

    Day By Day March 8, 2012 – Material Women

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The entire Limbaugh – Fluke Flap may indeed come back and bite the President and Democrats in Congress in the ass.

    Rush Limbaugh may lose some talk show radio sponsors and may gain others. Financially, Rush and the Premiere Radio Network will be fine.

    However, American voters are now wondering why the Obama Administration is at war with the Catholic Church and may even ask what is in the ObamaCare Law (passed in the Congress with not one Republican vote) which has not fully taken effect.

    The RIGHT will also be energized to “daylight” the hypocritical LEFT, like media personalities Bill Maher and Ed Shultz, and their propensity towards misogynist comments towards conservative women, like Sarah Palin and Laura Ingraham.

    President Obama has had a problem in the past with independent women voters. The White House maybe wishes the genie did not come out of this Rush Limbaugh bottle.

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-08

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