Archive for March 12th, 2012
President Obama speaking at a Florida fundraiser in February
Contrary to the Gallup Poll released earlier today, the latest New York Times/CBS poll has President Obama not doing so well.
Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.
The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Mr. Obama’s approval numbers measure his performance against expectations. But elections are choices between candidates, and on that score, he showed greater resilience in the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup against his most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama had a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage, a statistical dead heat given the poll’s margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Against Rick Santorum, the president drew 48 percent compared with 44 percent. In both cases, the difference between the candidates was slightly smaller than it was last month.
In the head-to-head matchups, Mr. Obama also maintained much of the advantage he had built in the last year among important constituencies, including women, although he lost some support among women over the past month, even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.
Remember what I said with the Gallup Poll.
It is all about the economy and the economy in the key battleground states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and Ohio.
Tags: Barack Obama
, President 2012
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According to the latest Gallup Polling.
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating rose to 49% in the three-day period from Friday through Sunday, building on an upward trend that began the middle of last week. Obama’s current approval rating is the highest measured since early February, and before that the highest since June 2011.
Gallup’s latest three-day rolling average is based on polling conducted Friday through Sunday, March 9-11, and reflects the impact of the U.S. government’s positive employment report released on Friday. Gallup’s tracking of U.S. economic confidence showed a sharp positive uptick over the weekend, with the overall Economic Confidence Index at -13 and -14 in the three-day rolling averages reported Saturday and Sunday. The -13 average for March 8-10 is the most positive three-day economic confidence average recorded since Gallup began tracking in January 2008. Forty-six percent of Americans now say the economy is getting better, the highest percentage since late 2009. Gallup’s full weekly report on U.S. economic confidence will be published Tuesday morning on Gallup.com.
Here is the weekly average chart:
And, the weekly approval chart by gender:
So, what does this all mean?
Remember, during the Bill Clinton campaign against President Bush the campaign mantra was: It’s the Economy Stupid? Same here – Obama will rise or fall in the polls because of the economy and its trends – either improving or declining.
Americans are perceiving an uptick in the economy today and thereby feel better about President Obama’s job approval.
Remember John McCain and Sarah Palin were making a comeback in 2008, before they were sunk by the Fall economic collapse. President Obama could rise or fall by outside events upon which he has little or no control. Or, on the other hand, by his economic policies that are successful or not.
Tags: Barack Obama
, President 2012
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The endorsement hit the internets yesterday after the California GOP Board of Directors made their decision.
From the press release:
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Emken, an accomplished businesswoman specializing in efficiency and cost-cutting, and nationally recognized advocate for autism research and treatment, has received the unanimous endorsement of the California Republican Party in her bid to unseat Dianne Feinstein from the U.S. Senate.
“This is the equivalent of winning the primary under the old system,” said California Republican Party Executive Director Brent Lowder.
Under the new open primary system, Emken’s endorsement gains the full support and backing of the California Republican Party’s statewide operations. Elected state party leaders met yesterday in Burbank as dozens of candidates from Assembly, State Senate, and Congressional races, as well as the U.S. Senate contest, made their bids for the party’s endorsement.
“This was a humbling experience and a tremendous honor to receive the Party’s endorsement,” said Emken. “I look forward to the challenge ahead and will start right away building a strong partnership with Chairman Del Beccaro and Republican leaders as we work toward victory together.”
Emken becomes the first Republican candidate to earn the Party’s statewide endorsement under a format established as a result of Proposition 14, California’s new open primary that eliminated the traditional ballot process to determine Republican nominees.
I would have preferred the state Republican Party NOT to endorse in this race.
There is nothing wrong with Elizabeth Emken and I WILL vote for her, if she receives the Republican nomination. But, there are some other Republicans running in this race and they deserve state party support too – most notably, Al Ramirez and Dan Hughes.
I say with multiple GOP candidates in the top-two field, the state party should stay the hell out of the way and not show offical party favoritism. California no longer has contested primary elections and a state party miscue could doom the party from placing a candidate in the general election.
The California GOP will be mightily embarrassed should Ramirez or Hughes beat Emken in the June Primary and win the likely right to face off against long-time incumbent Democrat U.S. senator Dianne Feinstein.
Then, the party leaders will do what, with a pissed off Republican registered candidate against Senator Dianne Feinstein?
Tags: Al Ramirez
, Dan Hughes
, Elizabeth Emken
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