Archive for October 16th, 2012
President Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.
Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.
Gallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.
Here is the chart:
Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:
Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.
So, what does this all mean?
The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.
Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.
Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.
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In the photo above you see the Trooth.Com billboard that Utah oral surgeons have erected in their “public awareness” campaign or what I call a “Turf War” with Dr. Wisdom Teeth, general dentist, Heath Hendrickson, D.D.S..
I will have another installment of my interview with oral surgeon, David Nicholls, D.D.S. tomorrow. The first installment is here.
In a telephone conversation with Dr. Hendrickson this afternoon, I will have his response after Dr. Nicholl’s posts are completed.
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California State Senator and CA-26 Congressional candidate Tony Strickland
Photo from Facebook
Republican Congressional candidate Tony Strickland continues to be plagued by either the Democratic Party, Democratic candidate Julia Brownley’s campaign or a SuperPAC aligned with Julia Brownley and the Democratic Party.
You remember the FLAP from before.
Well, it continued this Sunday at a campaign event: Celebracion de la Hispanidad
Here are some photos that were sent to me (note the children playing at the event):
Anybody know who this fellow is?
The police went out and had a few words to say with this guy.
This photo stalking has been a recurring issue for the Stricklands and Tony’s Congressional campaign.
I mean, this really is NOT how we run campaigns in Ventura County – stalking candidates like Paparazzi and intimidating them. You remember the female who was virtually tripping over Tony earlier this summer?
With three weeks before the election, does the opposition campaign really need the footage for ads. No, it looks just like harassment and intimidation to me.
Democrat Julia Brownley should call off the dogs….
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You remember the FLAP.
Yesterday afternoon, I had the opportunity to speak with David Nicholls, D.D.S., one of the oral and maxillofacial surgeons who comprise the Board of Trooth.Com.
While I characterize this “Public Awareness Campaign” as a Turf War between Utah oral surgeons and general dentist, Heath Hendrickson, D.D.S., Dr. Nicholls takes exception with this terminology. But, more on this later.
I have now reached out and left messages (either via e-mail or web form) with most, if not all, of the oral and maxillofacial surgeons on the Trooth.Com Board. Dr. Nicholls is, so far, the only one, who has contacted me. I welcome the other Board members to contact me for an interview or to comment below, if they wish.
Yesterday, I, also, had e-mail correspondence with Heath Hendrickson, D.D.S.. He told me that he would get back to me today since he was accompanying his wife, who is pregnant with twins to her doctor. She is due this week. I, certainly understand, and wish them both well – as everyone does.
On to the interview, which I will break down into a number of parts:
Who is David W. Nicholls, D.D.S.?
The graphic below is from Dr. Nicholl’s website:
Flap: Why Trooth.Com?
Well, in Utah, there seems to be a growing problem with individuals who are not specialty trained taking on specialty care and they are entitled to do that under the state’s Dental Practice Act. But, the state Dental Practice Act clearly states that if a general dentist is going to provide specialty care and advertise that he is providing specialty care that his advertisements must say that the services are performed by a general dentist. And, supposedly that font of the disclaimer is supposed to be of the same size as the largest font that he uses in his advertisements.
Additionally, the state Dental Practice Act states that a general dentist, providing specialty services, cannot make claims of superiority or advanced training when he has not gone through formal training – in terms as to how he represents himself to the public. And, in this case, Dr. Hendrickson, is a general dentist who has limited his practice to the surgical removal of wisdom teeth. And, he advertises very heavily. He has several billboards up and down the state, placards all over the community and multiple websites, all of which do not comply with that regulation. Meaning that he promotes himself as one who takes out wisdom teeth, that is all he does – you don’t need to see the oral surgeon because I can do it for you for whatever he is advertising.
The problem with that is that when people go to see him (Hendrickson) they don’t realize he is not an oral surgeon. He does provide the same level of care as an oral surgeon, but he is not trained. He graduated from Creighton in about 2003, as I understand it.
He uses a nurse anesthetist as the anesthetic, which is OK. But, we, as oral surgeons in the community around him have seen patients who come from his practice who develop post-operative complications, the way of infection, that is the most common one. And, so what happens is the patient either loses confidence in his practice and come and see the oral surgeon to treat the complication or the complication is beyond his ability to treat.
So, this creates a dynamic, where people are going to his practice because of the advertisement, but they do not know, until after the fact, that he is not an oral surgeon. And, that is the part we take issue with.
Any dentist can perform, any kind of treatment within the realm of his training under the Dental Practice Act. But, if he is going to advertise himself as doing that exclusively as a specialty then he is bound by the Dental Practice Act to state that to the public, so the public knows what they are getting, when they go to see that practitioner.
And, what happened is, we as his colleagues in the community have asked him several times to make that clear because as we have researched the circumstances we realize the public doesn’t know that and many of them feel that it has been misrepresented to them. And, he has not been responsive to that.
And, the professional regulation, in Utah run by the Department of Public Licensing (DOPL) which also covers physicians and other kinds of professionals who are licensed – and, so their main concerns are drug abuse and inappropriate contact with patients and that kind of thing. So, when DOPL was advised regarding these Dental Practice Act infractions, they just haven’t acted. They have too much else to do.
So, because Dr. Hendrickson did not respond and we got no support from DOPL, we felt the only thing left to do was, in the interests of truthful rendering of specialty care in our area, was to undertake a public education campaign.
And, that is our interest. And, that is our interest only.
Later in the interview, I asked in follow up, what kind of formal contact from the Trooth.Com Board or individual oral surgeons was made to Dr. Hendrickson. Dr. Nicholls replied that the Board had sent him a letter.
I requested a copy of the letter and Dr. Nicholls said that he would have to check with their legal counsel before he could supply the document. I will try to get the letter from the Board, Dr. Nicholls or from Dr. Hendrickson.
In Part Two of the interview, I will delve more into the issues of why the Board has seemingly taken the enforcement of the Utah Dental Practice Act into their own hands and what impact Dr. Nicholls sees in their public awareness campaign.
We will also discuss why some may see this awareness campaign, simply, as a Turf War, between specialty trained dentists who want to protect their own business interests from Dr. Hendrickson.
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Posted by Flap in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap, tags: California, Polling, Hillary_Clinton, #tcot, Libya, Obama, Romney, Pinboard Links, Gallup
These are my links for October 15th through October 16th:
- Poll: Romney, narrows gap with women, leads Obama in the swing states– Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.
That makes women, especially blue-collar “waitress moms” whose families have been hard-hit by the nation’s economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012’s close race.
“In every poll, we’ve seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney” since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. “Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them.”
While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters, the changed views of Romney could be “a precursor to movement” to the Republican candidate, she says. “It opens them up to take a second look, and that’s the danger for Obama.”
- THE NAYS HAVE IT: When Public Sector Unions Win in California – This November, California voters must decide two policy questions of great concern to public-sector unions. One is a tax hike to stave off further cuts to state spending (there are two versions on the ballot with a chance of passing). The other is a “paycheck protection” measure that would ban the practice of unions’ deducting money from member paychecks to spend on political activism. Public-sector union members stand to benefit from the tax increase, and they are campaigning heavily for one version, Proposition 30, which is being promoted by Governor Jerry Brown. Conversely, the unions stand to lose money and power if paycheck protection passes, and they are working hard to defeat it.
- Unions dominate California ballot propositions– Unions representing public workers in California have remarkable success achieving their desired outcomes for California ballot propositions—call it success by defeat. In some instances unions have outspent adversaries in California’s initiative process 8 to 1. This may come as no shock for those of us who live in the Golden State especially considering the well-entrenched power of unions here, but the rate of success unions have had in the initiative process is not only surprising, but staggering.Reviewing more than 30 years of data, a new study conducted by Daniel DiSalvo for the Manhattan Institute found that since 1980, public employee unions have been successful in defeating 75 percent of the ballot initiatives they opposed and have won in 50 percent of the initiatives they supported. That means unions possess an uncanny record when it comes to playing defense, “using initiative campaigns to block proposals that threaten their interests.” And when on offense they get what they want half of the time, a record that would make any special interest group in the country envious.The Manhattan Institute study release is well timed as public employee unions in California have invested heavily in the passage of Prop 30, Governor Jerry Brown’s initiative that would increase the state’s sales tax and also the state income tax for some earners. Conversely, unions are actively opposing Prop 32, which would stop unions and corporations from making direct contributions to legislators and change the way they would collect money for political spending.
- Romney Holds Advantage Tonight, Regardless of Format– The first thing to know about a “town-hall-style” presidential debate is that it bears as much resemblance to an actual campaign town-hall event as a marble statue does to its animated subject.Real town halls are usually unscripted and unpredictable and often raucous events. Town-hall debates are orderly, with the questions from the audience screened — selected to represent questions the moderator would ask if they were doing the questioning. Moderators are likely to reframe some questions and ask their own follow-ups in the language of Sunday morning talk shows. The candidates’ answers are subject to short time limits. The venue is disconcertingly quiet, as the audience is instructed to be unresponsive, with none of the cheers, boos, laughs and groans that are the soundtrack of real town halls.
- As Swing State Races Narrow, Debate Looms Large– The election cycle has reached the stage where there is such a torrent of polls released each day that the flipping leads could give many poll watchers whiplash. And Tuesday night’s presidential debate at Hofstra University could make the race even more volatile.On Monday morning, the RealClearPolitics Average of national polls found President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47.3 percent apiece; by the afternoon, Romney had ticked up a tenth of a point. And that’s after Romney had wrested the lead from Obama last Tuesday for the first time in more than a year.But the real movement has been in the battleground states. RCP currently counts 11 such battlegrounds (amounting to 146 electoral votes) as true tossups; Obama leads the electoral vote count in the other states, 201-191.
Those numbers are significant because at this point in the 2008 election, candidate Barack Obama was leading John McCain in every single one of those battlegrounds, including conservative-leaning North Carolina. In many of them, he was ahead by double digits, whereas his biggest battleground-state lead now is just 4.8 percentage points, according to the RCP Average — and that is in the usually reliable Democratic state of Pennsylvania.
- Our Awful Economy, In One Chart – Michelle Obama says we are “in the midst of a huge recovery.” That claim is laughable to anyone who has lived through the last four years; this simple chart from the Senate Budget Committee highlights one of the central failings of Obamanomics: people are leaving the labor force faster than they are entering it. Since Obama became president ten times as many people have been added to the roster of those not in the labor force, than have been added to the labor force:
- Obama: ‘We Got Back Every Dime’ of Bailout; CBO: Bailout Will Lose $24 Billion– President Barack Obama said on Thursday that “we got back every dime we used to rescue the financial system.”According to the Congressional Budget Office, however, the government will lose about $24 billion on the bailout.“We got back every dime we used to rescue the financial system, but we also passed a historic law to end taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailouts for good,” Obama said in Miami Thursday.
The Congressional Budget Office–based on figures from Obama’s own Office of Management and Budget—gives a different assessment.
“The cost to the federal government of the TARP’s transactions (also referred to as the subsidy cost), including grants for mortgage programs that have not yet been made, will amount to $24 billion,” said the CBO report, which was released on the same day Obama spoke.
- Hillary Clinton Accepts Blame for Benghazi– U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she takes responsibility for security at the American diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya, where Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans died in an attack last month.responsibility,” Mrs. Clinton said in a recent interview in her office. “I’m the Secretary of State with 60,000-plus employees around the world. This is like a big family…It’s painful, absolutely painful.”On Monday, in Lima, Peru, she also told television interviewers that she accepts the blame, adding that security at America’s diplomatic missions overseas is her job, not that of the White House.
Her comments come as Republicans, including presidential candidate Mitt Romney, criticize the Obama administration for its handling of the security before the attack by extremists and its explanations afterward.
- Obama camp attacks Gallup again– President Obama’s campaign once again attacked the methodology of Gallup just days after the polling group adjusted their methodology in a way that benefited the president. This time, the criticism came this time from the Obama pollster who mocked the Romney team for debating about the reliability of polls. After Gallup/USA Today released a poll showing Mitt Romney tied with Obama among likely female voters in swing states, Obama pollster Joel Benenson pointed to “deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen” and dismissed the survey as an “extreme outlier.”David Axelrod, Obama’s top campaign strategist, made a similar argument earlier this year. “Gallup is saddled with some methodological problems,” Axelrod tweeted in April, when showed Romney with a five-point lead over the president after trailing throughout March.The difference between Axelrod and Benenson, of course, is that Benenson specifically derided these kinds of comments two weeks ago.
- Hillary Clinton says she’s responsible for diplomats– Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday tried to douse a political firestorm over the deadly assault on a U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya, saying she’s responsible for the security of American diplomatic outposts.”I take responsibility,” Clinton said during a visit to Peru. “I’m in charge of the State Department’s 60,000-plus people all over the world, 275 posts. The president and the vice president wouldn’t be knowledgeable about specific decisions that are made by security professionals. They’re the ones who weigh all of the threats and the risks and the needs and make a considered decision.”But she said an investigation now under way will ultimately determine what happened at the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, where Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were killed on September 11.
- Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 16, 2012 * Romney Closing In On Obama In – RT @QuinnipiacPoll Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania, Poll Finds; Casey-Smith Senate Race Too Close To Call
- Ross Perot backs Mitt Romney – POLITICO.com – RT @politico Ross Perot backs Mitt Romney: #tcot
- Two Polls Show a Tight Race in Pennsylvania – Hotline On Call – RT @HotlineJosh Latest PA numbers from Quinnipiac: Obama 50, Romney 46. Casey 48, Smith 45. #tcot
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-15 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-15
- Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-15 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-15 #tcot
- My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-15 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-15
- Trooth | Public Awareness Campaign – Board Member Interview Tomorrow #tcot
- Trooth.Com Board Member Interview Tomorrow – Flap’s Blog – Board Member Interview Tomorrow #tcot
- The USA Today / Gallup Poll Has Romney Leading Obama by 4 Points – The USA Today / Gallup Poll Has Romney Leading Obama by 4 Points #tcot
- California Proposition 37 – The Food Labeling Initiative is Promoted By “JUNK” Science? – California Proposition 37 – The Food Labeling Initiative is Promoted By “JUNK” Science? #tcot
- Man Runs 2:46 Marathon in Flip Flops | Newswire – RT @runnersworld: Man sets marathon-in-flip-flops world record with a 2:46 in Baltimore:
- Yuba City Pays Lawyer To Stop Frivolous Lawsuits « CBS Sacramento – Yuba City, California Pays Lawyer To Stop Frivolous ADA Lawsuits #tcot
- Day By Day October 14, 2012 – Pattern – Flap’s Blog – Day By Day October 14, 2012 – Pattern #tcot
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: October 15, 2012 – The Morning Drill: October 15, 2012
- The Morning Flap: October 15, 2012 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: October 15, 2012 #tcot
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