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Archive for November 8th, 2012

share save 120 16 President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

final 2012 presidential map President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

Map courtesy of 270towin.com

The Romney campaign this afternoon conceded the last state (Florida) in play from Tuesday’s Presidential election.

In total, only two states from the McCain Vs. Obama race flipped red from blue in the Electoral College – Indiana and North Carolina.

President Obama won the election with a total of 332 ECV to Mitt Romney’s 206 ECV.

This is certainly different from my final map which narrowly had Romney beating the President. I was surprised and believe the Romney Campaign was surprised as well.

Poll assumptions, averages and calculations, most notably by Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 blog had the results more accurately predicted. Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia also had some successful prognostications.

Look at Nate Silver’s Tipping Point Analysis graph – it lays out the work for the GOP in 2016.

Nate Silver Presidential tipping point President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

The same key battleground states in the 2012 race may very well be in play. Of course, Hillary Clinton or New York Governor Cuomo will be the Democratic candidate and the Republicans will also choose another.

In order to flip more states red in the Electoral College and win the election, the Republicans must win more votes in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and perhaps Wisconsin.

There may be two approaches as noted by Silver and I concur.

The Republican Party will have four years to adapt to the new reality. Republican gains among Hispanic voters could push Colorado and Nevada back toward the tipping point, for example.

States like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa are overwhelmingly white – but also highly educated, with fairly progressive views on social policy. If Republicans moderated their tone on social issues, they might be more competitive in these states, while regaining ground in Northern Virginia and in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The Republican Party has a few months to adapt and adopt new messaging to prepare for the 2014 mid-term elections.

The data is there and now it is up to the GOP to make the necessary changes.

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share save 120 16 California Votes to Keep Death Penalty   Voters Reject Proposition 34

California Death Chamber California Votes to Keep Death Penalty   Voters Reject Proposition 34

The lethal injection table at San Quentin Prison, California

On Tuesday, Californians rejected Proposition 34 which would have abolished the death penalty in the state.

The Field Poll has been querying Californians on the death penalty for more than 50 years, and in 2011 there was a notable shift. Although 68% of respondents said they were in favor of keeping capital punishment, a percentage that had fluctuated only slightly since 2002, the answers grew more interesting when the question was phrased a different way. Asked whether they would rather sentence killers to life without parole or the death penalty, a significant majority of Californians in 2011 said they preferred the former — 48% favored life imprisonment vs. 40% for state-sponsored execution. Since the poll started asking this question in 2000, death had always trumped a life-in-prison sentence.

Proposition 34 would have done precisely what voters in 2011 said they wanted, resentencing the 726 death row inmates to life without the possibility of parole and eliminating capital punishment as an option in future cases. Yet the initiative lost, 52.8% to 47.2%.

The Times goes on to lament (sine the Times Editorial Board supported Proposition 34) that it is just a matter of time before death penalty abolitionists win.

I am not so sure.

Here is Gallup Polling on the matter.

Gallup Poll on death penalty California Votes to Keep Death Penalty   Voters Reject Proposition 34In a very LEFT tide Presidential election cycle( with wide participation by voters) with virtually NO opposition (certainly NO television advertising), Proposition 34 still lost by 6 points.

There have been too many heinous crimes in California and there is no incentive to give leniency to those already on Death Row. The fiscal argument may sway a few, but when Californians are reminded of the horrendous crimes, they will support the death penalty.

Now, if we can only convince the federal and state courts to speed up and streamline the process of appeals. And, allow the California Department of Corrections to enforce the law.

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share save 120 16 CA 26: How Julia Brownley Defeated Tony Strickland

Update:

I hear that Tony Strickland is being mentioned as running for California State Party chairman.

Julia Brownley Super PAC Ad CA 26: How Julia Brownley Defeated Tony Strickland

UTimm Herdt has an analysis over at the Ventura County Star and some city by city results base on the unofficial results of votes that have been counted.

The key to winning in any political campaign is for a candidate to maximize his or her base of support while holding down the other in his base. The 26th Congressional District was no exception. An analysis of city-by-city vote results from Tuesday shows that Democrat Julia Brownley did the best job of accomplishing that objective — which is why she defeated Republican Tony Strickland.

(A complete city-by-city breakdown is at the end of this post.)

Brownley really ran up the score in Oxnard, winning that city 66 percent to 34 percent in the final unofficial vote count. That 32-point difference was four points better than the city’s Democratic voter registration advantage of 28 percent, meaning that Brownley solidly held the city’s Democratic base and won a sizeable majority of independents.

Oxnard voters provided Brownley with her entire margin of victory and then some. She carried Oxnard by 12,360 votes; she won districtwide by 7,099.

I will reserve a more complete analysis until final numbers are released by December 7. But, I think Strickland’s losing campaign mirrors that of his mentor Mitt Romney’s losing Presidential one.

There are some basic flaws which the Republican Party will have to correct if they wish to win competitive races.

In a nutshell they are:

  • Candidate selection/recruitment
  • Women
  • Hispanics/Immigration

While Strickland may have lost a close race, he is not through politically and with better electoral conditions, I foresee him making a comeback either in the California State Senate or in a re-match in CA-26.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

natlpolls vs outcome President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

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share save 120 16 Flaps Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012 11 07
share save 120 16 Flaps Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012 11 07

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