Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, waves to the crowd during a public gathering in his visit to the city of Qazvin, 90 miles (150 kilometers) west of the capital Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 8, 2006. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday that Iran was ready to discuss ‘mutual concerns’ over its controversial nuclear program but claimed that the West gave in to Iran. Ahmadinejad did not say whether Iran accepts a Western package of incentives aimed at enticing Iran to suspend uranium enrichment to open the way for negotiations with the United States and Europe.

ASSociated Press: Ahmadinejad: Iran to talk, U.S. gave in 

Iran’s president said Thursday his regime is ready for talks over its nuclear capabilities, but he sent mixed signals on how much is open for negotiation and suggested Tehran has the upper hand in its showdown with the West.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeated Iran’s position that uranium enrichment is an untouchable national right, a clear jab at the West two days after Iran received a package of economic and technological incentives to suspend the program.

But he also offered some signs of flexibility without specifically mentioning the proposal. In a speech at an industrial city, he said Iran would hold dialogue on “mutual concerns” with foreign powers — including the United States — if they took place “free from threats.”

Ahmadinejad portrayed Iran as having forced Washington and its allies to accept the Islamic regime’s “greatness and dignity” and increasingly bend to its will.

The shifting messages are seen as part of Iranian posturing before possible talks, which could include the United States after a nearly 27-year diplomatic freeze. Western nations, led by the U.S., worry Iran’s uranium enrichment technology could become the backbone for a nuclear arms program. Iran insists it only seeks electricity-producing reactors.

“The nation will never hold negotiations about its definite rights with anybody, but we are for talks about mutual concerns to resolve misunderstandings in the international arena,” Ahmadinejad told thousands of people in Qazvin, about 60 miles northwest of Tehran.

Posturing by Ahmadinejad to the Western Media.
AFP: Reported plan to allow Iran uranium enrichment ‘hypothetical’: US

The United States refused to confirm or deny reports that it and European powers had offered
Iran the possibility of uranium enrichment on its territory, dismissing them as “hypothetical and theoretical.”

The State Department and White House reiterated that Iran must suspend all uranium enrichment on its soil as a condition for Washington’s participation in negotiations with the Islamic republic.

“The precondition of suspending uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities — that is still an absolute condition,” said President George W. Bush’s spokesman, Tony Snow.

“That condition would have to hold throughout any negotiating term,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

“Beyond that, I am not going to speculate. Beyond that, we are truly into the realm of the hypothetical and theoretical,” he said.

According to diplomatic sources in Vienna and Tehran, the powers’ offer to Iran would eventually allow uranium enrichment on its territory, but only after the approval of the international community.

Iran must as a pre-condition to negotiations on the Big 6 incentive package MUST halt all uranium enrichment.

Will they agree?

Doubtful

But, Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs will dance around the issue as they try to find a way out of the diplomatic trap set for them by Condoleezza Rice.

Enriched uranium is seen in this April 11, 2006 file photo. Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

Reuters: US waits for Iran’s formal response to nuclear offer

The United States does not consider comments on Thursday by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be Iran’s formal response to a major power offer of talks and incentives on the nuclear issue, a U.S. official said.

Asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, he also told Reuters the comments by Iran’s president gave no sign that Tehran is prepared to suspend uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, the central condition of the major power offer.

The United States “will withhold any reaction until we hear the formal response through Solana,” the official said, referring to European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who presented the major powers offer to Iran on Tuesday.

Asked whether the Bush administration viewed Ahmadinejad’s comments on Thursday to be positive, the official replied: “They have a couple of times now talked about an interest in negotiations but still have not made a commitment to the conditions for negotiations.”

“The ball is still in Iran’s court,” he added.

Ahmadinejad said Thursday threats would not work in any talks to solve a dispute over the country’s nuclear program but said Iran was ready to clear up misunderstandings with the world.

He said Iran was not willing to abandon its nuclear “rights” — usually shorthand in Iran for uranium enrichment — but some analysts said his speech reflected a greater readiness in Tehran to hold talks over the country’s atomic ambitions.

Iran and Ahmadinejad MUST surrender their uranium enrichment program as a pre-condition to going forward with Big 6 negotiations. Has Iran committed to the process?

NOPE

Iran’s Astan Qods Razavi museum chief holds a sample of enriched uranium in April 2006. Iran is continuing uranium enrichment as well as building new production lines for the centrifuge machines that carry out the sensitive nuclear work, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said in a report obtained by AFP.

Reuters: Iran begins fresh atom enrichment despite powers’ offer

Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

The report, emailed to the 35 states on theInternational Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board ahead of a meeting starting on Monday, also said Iran was pressing ahead with installing more cascades of centrifuge enrichment machines.

Authored by IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, the report said Iran resumed feeding “UF6” uranium gas into its pilot 164-centrifuge cascade in Natanz on Tuesday after a pause of several weeks to do test runs of the machines without UF6.

Is this Iran’s final answer on the Big 6 proposal?

Probably.

Iran will NOT stop their uranium enrichment program.

Why?

Because their overt nuclear program is only a portion of Iranian uranium enrichment. They have a clandestine military program to manufacture enriched uranium for weapons production. Would this be discovered if IAEA inspectors returned to Iran to verify/enforce the Big 6 negotiations?

You betcha and then Iran would be in for some heavy UNSC sanctions that even Russia/China would be hard pressed to veto.

A Western intelligence source told Reuters hours before the IAEA report that Iran stopped feeding gas into its pilot cascade later in April because of technical glitches, but then resolved them, allowing an enrichment resumption this week.

“This underlines the fact that the temporary halt was technical in nature. It’s a continuation of Iranian policy to profit from all worlds — dialogue to gain time while continuing to strive for an atomic bomb,” the source said.

The report confirmed diplomatic leaks that new traces of highly enriched uranium, the key fissile ingredient in atomic bombs, had turned up on equipment from the ex-military Lavizan-Shian site, razed by Iran in 2004 before inspectors could examine it.

IAEA inspectors earlier this year took swabs from vacuum pumps used at Lavizan. Vacuum pumps have “dual” civilian or military uses but are needed when enriching uranium with a cascade of connected centrifuges.

Iran has said such traces, detected earlier at some other sites in Iran, originated on equipment imported from Pakistan, which has nuclear arms, and did not come from Iranian activity.

ElBaradei’s report said Tehran was still stonewalling a three-year-old IAEA probe into military links with nuclear fuel work, echoing a string of earlier reports.

Iran’s President Ahmadinejad is heading to Shanghai next week for a meeting with China’s Hu Jintao on their nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad will play with the western media cycle until then but everyone knows what Iran’s final answer will be.

Tick Tick Tick

A general view of Iran’s uranium enrichment complex in Natanz

Previous:

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States – Iran Must Suspend Uranium Enrichment During Negotiations

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Says Western proposal ‘positive’

Iran Nuclear Watch: U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman on Possible Iran Disruption of Persian Gulf Oil Supplies – “We Can Handle it For a While”

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Receives Big 6 Nuclear Initiative

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States Sweetens the POT

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Threatens Oil Disruption

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad to Publish Big 6 Offer to Iran

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad – Iran Welcomes Unconditional Talks on Nukes

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran President Ahmadinejad – The West Won’t Deprive Iran of Its Nuclear Technology

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran “DETERMINED” to Go Ahead with Nuclear Enrichment Work

Iran Nuclear Watch: Big 6 Agree on Iran Nuclear Incentives and Sanctions (?)

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Spurns Talks With United States

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran – United States Offer to Join Talks is “A Propaganda Move.”

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States Prepared To Join Other Nations in Direct Iran Talks – IF…

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States to Join Iran Nuclear Talks?

Iran Nuclear Watch: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – “We Are Determined”

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Wants to Resume Nuclear Talks with European Union

The Natanz uranium enrichment complex in Natanz is pictured in this January 2, 2006 satellite image.

Technorati Tags: Iran, MahmoudAhmadinejad

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani attends a talk at Sharif university in Tehran April 30, 2006. Iran on Sunday suggested there could still be life in failed uranium enrichment negotiations with Russia, as Tehran edged closer to a legally-binding U.N. Security Council demand that it halt all atomic fuel work.

ASSociated Press: Iran: Inspections OK if Dossier Returned

Iran said on Saturday it would allow United Nations inspectors to resume snap inspections of its nuclear facilities, but only if the dispute again went before the U.N. nuclear monitor.

The White House rejected the offer, which apparently came as Iran sought to avoid a full-blown
U.N. Security Council debate over sanctions.

“Today’s statement does not change our position that the Iranian government must give up its nuclear ambitions, nor does it affect our decision to move forward to the United Nations Security Council,” White House spokesman Blaine Rethmeier said.

Russia, which has steadfastly opposed possible sanctions against Iran, joined the international chorus in telling Iran it must stop nuclear enrichment.

ASSociated Press: Rice Says Iran Playing Games With Offer

The United States rejects Iran’s offer to allow a watchdog agency to inspect the country’s nuclear facilities and will press ahead for U.N. penalties against Tehran, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said Sunday.

“They’ve had plenty of time to cooperate. I think they’re playing games,” Rice said.

Iran on Saturday offered to allow inspections to resume if the Security Council turned over the dispute to the U.N. nuclear monitor, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

A report from the IAEA confirmed that Iran had successfully produced enriched uranium and defied the Security Council’s Friday deadline to stop the process.

Rice said the offer to resume IAEA inspections suggests the Iranians “are indeed somewhat concerned” about actions the Security Council might take to further isolate Iran.

Her remarks contrasted with comments from her predecessor at the State Department,
Colin Powell, who said in an interview broadcast Sunday in London that Iran seems to “have pretty much decided they can accept whatever sanctions are coming their way.”
Regardless, Rice said the U.S. probably would seek a U.N. resolution that would require Iran to comply with demands that it stop enriching uranium. Rice mentioned a resolution under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which means it can be enforced through penalties or military action.

“The international community’s credibility is at stake here,” she told ABC’s “This Week.”

“And we have a choice, too. We can either mean what we say, when we say that Iran must comply, or we can continue to allow Iran to defy.”

Washington Post: EU and US strike different tones on Iran

The United States and the European Union struck different tones on Saturday on how to respond to Iran’s nuclear defiance while insisting they were in full agreement.

Speaking at a transatlantic conference, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said no one was considering military action over Tehran’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment and Europe did not want to join a “coalition of the willing” against Iran.

Influential U.S. Senator John McCain told the Brussels Forum in a speech on Friday night: “There is only one thing worse than military action, and that is a nuclear-armed Iran.”

He said the United States would not stand by and let Iran wipe out Israel, as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had called for.

Wall Street Journal: Iran Fails to Meet Nuclear Demands, U.N. Says

U.S., Europe Plan to Press Case With Security Council, But Sanctions Seem on Hold

A new United Nations report says Iran is defying demands that it halt sensitive nuclear activities and allay suspicions about its suspected weapons ambitions, but any serious discussion of international sanctions may still be months away.

Nervousness about the brewing crisis drove crude-oil-futures prices up 91 cents Friday to $71.88 a barrel.

U.S. and European officials said they now would press the U.N. Security Council to swiftly pass a Chapter VII resolution, citing Iran’s actions as “a threat to international peace and security” and making its compliance mandatory. But officials said that, to avoid near-certain vetoes from Russia and China, the resolution wouldn’t threaten Iran with any immediate punishment.

“Neither China nor Russia wants” Iran to develop a nuclear capability, “but they’re not at the point of agreeing to sanctions,” Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph said in an interview Friday. “That’s clearly where we need to move this.”

• Text of the April 28 IAEA report

• Oil Minister Asserts Iran Won’t Cut Exports
04/26/06

• U.N. Security Council Drafts Iran Statement
03/30/06

NewsMax: U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Report Slams Iran

A report released Friday to the U.N. Security Council from the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna detailed Iran’s failure to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear agency and paved the way for Security Council action against Iran.

A copy of the 8-page report, obtained by Newsmax, found that Iran had failed to comply with the March 28 Security Council “presidential statement” that gave Iran a 30-day deadline to halt all uranium enrichment activities.

Tehran reacted predictably by dismissing the report and the threat of U.N. action: “The Iranian nation won’t give a damn about such useless resolutions,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a crowd in northwestern Iran.

Highlights from the latest IAEA report:

Iran continues to refuse to provide documents relating to a 1987 offer by an intermediary for the A.Q. Khan nuclear black market network for centrifuge enrichment equipment. “The document related to the possible supply of: a disassembled centrifuge; drawings, specifications and calculations for a “complete plant”; and materials for 2000 centrifuge machines,” the report states. The document also made reference to “uranium re-conversion and casting capabilities,” which can be used for manufacturing nuclear weapons cores.

Iran also refuses to provide “any documentation or other information about the meetings that led to its acquistion of 500 sets of P-1 centrifuge components in the mid-1990s” from the Khan network. Iran claims it never any of the centrifuges obtained from the black market network.

Iran continues to stonewall the agency on its success in manufacturing the more advanced P-2 centrifuge in Iran, despite recent claims in the press by “high level Iranian officials concerning R&D and testing of P-2 centrifuges in Iran.”

Iran continues to refuse IAEA demands that it provide a complete copy of a 15-page technical document received from the Khan network that describes uranium casting and manufacturing proceses of “hemispherical” shapes of highly-enriched uranium. Officials acknowledge there is no other purpose of HEU hemispheres other than as bomb cores.

Iran continues work on a Plutonium-breeder reactor in Arak, despite an IAEA demand that it suspend work on the project until full safeguards can be applied.

Iran refused AEA demands to provide information relating to the “Green Salt Project,” a secret, parallel program to make nuclear materials exempt from IAEA inspections.

In addition, “Iran has yet to address the other topics of high explosives testing and the design of a missile re-entry vehicle.” Earlier IAEA reports and information from Western diplomats indicated that the re-entry vehicle had been specially designed to carry a nuclear warhead.While the low-key IAEA report was both factual and technical, its political implications were immediately clear.”We are ready to take action in the Security Council,” U.S. Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, told reporters in New York. “We’re concerned about Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.”

Asharq Alawsat:Iran’s Secret Plan if Attacked by US Codenamed “Judgement Day” 

Eight fundamentalist Islamist organizations have received large sums of money in the last month from the Iranian intelligence services, as part of a project to strike U.S military and economic installations across the Middle East Asharq Al-Awsat has learned.The plan, which also includes the carrying out of suicide operations targeting US and British interests in the region, as well as their Arab and Muslim allies, in case Iran is attacked, was drawn up by a number of experts guerilla warfare and terrorist operations, and was revealed by a senior source in the Iranian armed forces’ joint chief of staff headed by the veterinary doctor Hassan Firouzabadi,

The source added that the forces of the Revolutionary Guards’ al Quds Brigades, under Brigadier General Qassim Suleimani is responsible for coordinating and providing logistical support for the groups taking part in the execution of the plan, codenamed al Qiyamah the Islamic word for “Judgment Day”.

The plan includes three steps, which Asharq al Awsat has examined in earlier reports. The source gave more details about how the plan will be implemented. He said, “Most of Iran’s visitors in the last four months, including the leaders of revolutionary groups in Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon, as well as the heads of Hezbollah cells in the Persian Gulf and Europe and North America were asked, when they met with the Iranian intelligence minister Gholamhossein Mohseni Ezhei and his aides: are you ready to defend the Islamic revolution and vilayat e faqih? If you agree to take part in the great jihad, what would you need to be ready for the great fight?

According to Iran, the latest military plan includes:

1- A missile strike directly targeting the US bases in the Persian Gulf and Iraq , as soon as nuclear installations are hit.

2- Suicide operations in a number of Arab and Muslim countries against US embassies and missions and US military bases and economic and oil installations related to US and British companies. The campaign might also target the economic and military installations of countries allied with the United States .

3- Launch attacks by the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards and Iraqi fighters loyal to Iran against US and British forces in Iraq , from border regions in central and southern Iraq .

4- Hezbollah to launch hundreds of rockets against military and economic targets in Israel .

According to the source, in case the US military attacks continue, more than 50 Shehab-3 missiles will be targeted against Israel and the al Quads Brigades will give the go-ahead for more than 50 terrorists cells in Canada, the US and Europe to attack civil and industrial targets in these countries.

What about the last stage in the plan?

Here, the Iranian source hesitated before saying with worry; this stage might represent the beginning of a world war, given that extremists will seek to maximize civilian casualties by exploding germ and chemical bombs as well as dirty nuclear bombs across western and Arab cities.

The Guardian: Scathing nuclear report as US brands Iran enemy No 1

The US administration branded Iran public enemy number one, calling it one of the world’s most active sponsors of terrorism, as the UN nuclear inspectors revealed that Tehran has successfully enriched uranium and is racing ahead with its nuclear programme.

AFP: Iran says digging in for confrontation over nuclear programme

Iran has said it was digging in for a confrontation with the West over its disputed nuclear programme, vowing that neither UN Security Council resolutions nor US military action could force a climbdown.

“We will not accept any forced resolution,” Iran’s top national security official Ali Larijani told students at Tehran’s Sharif University Sunday, the most prestigious scientific faculty in the Islamic republic.

Drawing loud applause, he asserted the country’s bid to master sensitive nuclear technology — for peaceful purposes and not weapons as the United States alleges — was “a strategic objective”.

“We will use any means to achieve that objective,” he said. “Our programme is to continue research and development in enrichment and to have the nuclear fuel cycle.”

“We are ready for all scenarios. The government has set up a committee and has thought about all scenarios. If the situation becomes a military one, we have thought about that too,” Larijani said.

AFP: Iran cannot be forced to halt nuclear programme: Larijani

Iran cannot be forced to halt its disputed nuclear programme and will defy any UN Security Council resolution demanding a freeze of uranium enrichment, the country’s top national security official has said.

“We will not accept any forced resolution,” Ali Larijani told a group of students at Tehran’s Sharif University, the Islamic republic’s most prestigious scientific faculty.

“They should not think they can make us happy with sweets. Iran is allergic to the terms of the suspension. Our programme is to continue research and development in enrichment and to have the nuclear fuel cycle,” he said Sunday.

“If they want to pressure us, our reaction will be to revise our relations with the IAEA,” he said, referring to the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. “The ball is in their court.”

Indeed, the ball is in President Bush’s court.

Look for measured United Nations Security Council Chapter 7 resolutions and a vote which will be vetoed by Russia and/or China.

The United States and some of its European partners will then impose their own sanctions while intelligence operations and war planning continues.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran

A general view shows a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, about 1,215 km (755 miles) south of Tehran, Iran in this February 26, 2006 file photo. Iran said on Sunday it would not abandon its work on uranium enrichment, which the United Nations has demanded it halt, and was prepared to face the consequences.

Reuters: Iran vows no u-turn on nuclear work

Iran’s decision to enrich uranium is irreversible, its foreign ministry said on Sunday in defiance of international demands it halt all nuclear work.

Iran, accused by Western nations of seeking nuclear bombs, said this month it had enriched uranium for the first time to a level used in power stations.

“Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear research and development activities are irreversible,” foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told a weekly news conference.

AP: Iran Calls Nuclear Program ‘Irreversible’

Iran said Sunday its nuclear program is irreversible, issuing yet another rejection of a U.N. Security Council deadline to cease enriching uranium that expires in five days.

“Nuclear research will continue. Suspension of (nuclear activities including uranium enrichment) is not on our agenda. This issue is irreversible,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.

The United States and some allies charge Iran is using the program as a cover for weapons production. Iran says it is designed only for power generation.

The Security Council deadline of Friday is not binding, but the United States and Britain said Iran must comply or the two countries would seek a resolution to make the demand compulsory, which would raise the possibility of sanctions.

“Iran won’t give up its rights and has prepared plans for any eventuality,” Asefi said.

The spokesman said a Russian compromise plan for joint uranium enrichment was still on the table.

Escorted by his bodyguards Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2nd right, and Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh, 2nd left, visit from the Tehran’s Oil, Gas, Petrochemical Show, in Tehran on Friday, April. 21, 2006.

AP: Rep. Says Iran’s Nuke Capability Unknown

The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee acknowledged Sunday that mixed messages surround Iran’s nuclear capabilities and that “we really don’t know” how close Tehran is to developing a nuclear weapon.

“It all points out the fact we need to do much better in rebuilding our intelligence community, reshaping it, transforming it, making sure that we give public policy, that we give policymakers the information that they need so that we can make better decisions,” Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., told “Fox News Sunday.”

National Intelligence Director John Negroponte said last week that Iran, while determined to acquire a nuclear weapon, remains as many as 10 years away from having the material it needs.

A week earlier, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice brushed aside suggestions that Iran was far from nuclear weaponry and said the world believes Iran has the capacity and the technology that lead to nuclear weapons.

Asked how close is Iran to actually developing a nuclear weapon, Hoekstra replied, “I’d say we really don’t know.”

“We as public policymakers need to know that as we’re moving forward and as decisions are being made on Iran, we don’t have all of the information that we would like to have,” Hoekstra said.

Los Angeles Times: Been there, done that

Talk of a U.S. strike on Iran is eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the Iraq war.

By Zbigniew Brzezinski, Zbigniew Brzezinski was national security advisor to President Carter from 1977 to 1981.

IRAN’S ANNOUNCEMENT that it has enriched a minute amount of uranium has unleashed urgent calls for a preventive U.S. airstrike from the same sources that earlier urged war on Iraq. If there is another terrorist attack in the United States, you can bet your bottom dollar that there also will be immediate charges that Iran was responsible in order to generate public hysteria in favor of military action.

But there are four compelling reasons against a preventive air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities:

First, in the absence of an imminent threat (and the Iranians are at least several years away from having a nuclear arsenal), the attack would be a unilateral act of war. If undertaken without a formal congressional declaration of war, an attack would be unconstitutional and merit the impeachment of the president. Similarly, if undertaken without the sanction of the United Nations Security Council, either alone by the United States or in complicity with Israel, it would stamp the perpetrator(s) as an international outlaw(s).

Second, likely Iranian reactions would significantly compound ongoing U.S. difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, perhaps precipitate new violence by Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly elsewhere, and in all probability bog down the United States in regional violence for a decade or more. Iran is a country of about 70 million people, and a conflict with it would make the misadventure in Iraq look trivial.

Third, oil prices would climb steeply, especially if the Iranians were to cut their production or seek to disrupt the flow of oil from the nearby Saudi oil fields. The world economy would be severely affected, and the United States would be blamed for it. Note that oil prices have already shot above $70 per barrel, in part because of fears of a U.S.-Iran clash.

Finally, the United States, in the wake of the attack, would become an even more likely target of terrorism while reinforcing global suspicions that U.S. support for Israel is in itself a major cause of the rise of Islamic terrorism. The United States would become more isolated and thus more vulnerable while prospects for an eventual regional accommodation between Israel and its neighbors would be ever more remote.

In short, an attack on Iran would be an act of political folly, setting in motion a progressive upheaval in world affairs. With the U.S. increasingly the object of widespread hostility, the era of American preponderance could even come to a premature end. Although the United States is clearly dominant in the world at the moment, it has neither the power nor the domestic inclination to impose and then to sustain its will in the face of protracted and costly resistance. That certainly is the lesson taught by its experiences in Vietnam and Iraq.

Power Line: Still feckless after all these years

“Been there, done that” is the title of a piece about Iran by Zbigniew Brzezinski. The title is intended to evoke a comparison between the current debate over whether to attack Iran and the debate of a few years ago about Iraq. Brzezinski apparently is unable to distinguish between an invastion followed by an occupation and bombing strikes. Similarly, he can’t detect the difference between a regime that indisputably had chemical weapons at one time but claimed to have destroyed them and a regime that does not yet have nuclear weapons but indisputably is working diligently to develop them, and making excellent progress.

Nonetheless, Brzezinski’s title is apt because we have “been there and done that” when it comes to Iran. Brzezinski should know because he was there doing “that.” It was he and his feckless boss President Carter who saw no cause for concern in a potential Iranian mullocracy, and hence no reason to back the Shah of Iran who stood in the mullahs way.

Now, more than 25 years on, the old foreign policy hand is still assuring us that we have little to fear from the mullahs. He seems to take it as a given that, through negotiations, we can talk them out of developing nukes. Alternatively, he assumes that the mullahs won’t be around much longer. Indeed, in the familiar “blame America first” tradition of his party, Brzezinski suggests, without presenting any evidence, that the mullahs were on their way out until the U.S. gave them a lease on life by being so confrontational. If only we would “treat[] Iran with respect,” our problems with that country would work themselves out.

Wishful thinking is a powerful force in the human psyche, but the Carter years confirmed that it’s a recipe for disaster in foreign policy. But all these years later, wishful thinking is all Brzezinski has to offer.

YAWN…..nothing new from Iran. They have consistent in their uranium enrichment policy:

THEY DON’T GIVE A DAMN WHAT THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL DICTATES.

And, now, the appeasers from the LEFT are creeping out of the woodwork. Two decades ago they were appalled that Reagan and Thatcher had the nuclear switch at their finger but today are satisfied that the Mullahs may soon be in the same position……Ridiculous.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran

A general view of Iran’s uranium enrichment complex in Natanz. Russia has ruled out talk of sanctions against Iran without proof that Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons as alleged by the United States, and vowed to continue military cooperation with the Islamic republic.

AFP: Russia rejects US call to stop Iran nuclear project

Russia has angrily rejected a demand by the United States for Moscow to halt construction of a nuclear power plant in Iran, magnifying an East-West split over how to respond to Tehran’s nuclear programme.

“Every country has the right to decide itself with whom and how it cooperates,” the foreign ministry said Thursday.

Earlier, the head of Russia’s Rosatom nuclear agency, Sergei Kiriyenko, also defended the project to build Iran’s first nuclear power station at Bushehr, saying it did “not threaten the (nuclear) non-proliferation regime”.

Moscow was replying to a demand on Wednesday by US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns for “countries to stop cooperation with Iran on nuclear issues, even on civilian nuclear issues like the Bushehr facility”.

The public row undermines attempts by Western powers and Russia to show a united front in the face of Iran, which is suspected in Western capitals, especially Washington, of using a civilian nuclear programme to hide a secret bomb project.

An Iranian delegation was in Moscow for a second day for secretive talks against a background of rising international tensions and record high oil prices of more than 74.2 dollars in London.

The Iranian delegation included Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghshi and Javad Vaidi, deputy secretary of the National Security Council, but there was no information about which Russian officials were taking part, ITAR-TASS news agency reported.

Late on Wednesday the Iranians held a surprise meeting with senior diplomats from Britain, France and Germany. They struck a defiant pose, announcing that Tehran intended to accelerate its uranium enrichment programme.

Sky News: Iran: ‘We’ll Cooperate On Nuclear Plan’

Iran is backing away from confrontation with the West and will cooperate over its nuclear plans, according to a Tehran envoy. “Iran intends to continue cooperation with the IAEA,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Tehran’s chief representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr Soltanieh told a conference in Moscow: “We are ready to eliminate all the ambiguities with regard to our nuclear file.”

Delegates at the conference were unimpressed.

"We've heard all this before," said one European official.

"We'll await (IAEA chief Mohamed) ElBaradei's report. We'll make our judgment then on what the next move is."

The report is due on April 28.

USA Today: Brazil follows Iran's nuclear path, but without the fuss

As Iran faces international pressure over developing the raw material for nuclear weapons, Brazil is quietly preparing to open its own uranium-enrichment center, capable of producing exactly the same fuel.

Brazil — like Iran — has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, and Brazil's constitution bans the military use of nuclear energy.

Also like Iran, Brazil has cloaked key aspects of its nuclear technology in secrecy while insisting the program is for peaceful purposes, claims nuclear weapons experts have debunked.

While Brazil is more cooperative than Iran on international inspections, some worry its new enrichment capability — which eventually will create more fuel than is needed for its two nuclear plants — suggests that South America's biggest nation may be rethinking its commitment to non-proliferation.

"Brazil is following a path very similar to Iran, but Iran is getting all the attention," said Marshall Eakin, a Brazil expert at Vanderbilt University. "In effect, Brazil is benefiting from Iran's problems."

AFP: Senior UN nuclear inspector puts off trip to Iran

A senior UN nuclear inspector put off a trip to Iran in what diplomats said was a clear sign that Tehran is failing to give the UN atomic agency key concessions it demands.

The development comes as the UN Security Council waits to see if Iran honors an April 28 deadline for it to halt uranium enrichment that could be weapons-related and to cooperate fully with inspectors from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency.

AFP: Iran still years away from having nukes: US intelligence chief

US intelligence chief John Negroponte said Iran's resumption of uranium enrichment is "troublesome" but the country is still years away from having enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon.

Negroponte expressed concern both about Iran's claim to have resumed uranium enrichment with a cascade of 164 centrifuges in Natanz and extreme statements made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"The developments in Iran -- clearly they're troublesome," he said in response to questions after a speech to the National Press Club.

"By the same token, our assessment at the moment is that even though we believe that Iran is determined to acquire or obtain a nuclear weapon, that we believe that it is still a number of years off before they are likely to have enough fissile material to assemble into, or to put into a nuclear weapon; perhaps into the next decade," he said.

"So I think it's important that this issue be kept in perspective," he said.

Guardian Unlimited: The tragedy that followed Hillary Clinton's bombing of Iran in 2009

In retaliation, suicide bombers trained by Tehran massacred civilians in Tel Aviv, London and New York

May 7 2009 will surely go down in history alongside September 11 2001. "5/7", as it inevitably became known, saw massive suicide bombings in Tel Aviv, London and New York, as well as simultaneous attacks on the remaining western troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Total casualties were estimated at around 10,000 dead and many more wounded. The attacks, which included the explosion of a so-called dirty bomb in London, were orchestrated by a Tehran-based organisation for "martyrdom-seeking operations" established in 2004. "5/7" was the Islamic Republic of Iran's response to the bombing of its nuclear facilities, which President Hillary Clinton had ordered in March 2009.

Reuters: Russia says no Iran sanctions without proof: report 

Russia would approve sanctions on Iran only if it saw hard evidence that Tehran's nuclear program was not peaceful, Itar-Tass news agency quoted a foreign ministry spokesman as saying on Friday.

The United States and some other major powers believe Iran may be building a nuclear bomb. But they say evidence that Iran is not complying with the United Nations nuclear watchdog is enough on its own to justify sanctions.

Russia -- a U.N. Security Council veto-holder -- has said it is not convinced that sanctions would persuade Iran to abandon uranium enrichment. But Moscow has not before been explicit about what evidence it would need to consider sanctions.

"We will only be able to talk about sanctions after we have concrete facts confirming that Iran is not exclusively involved in peaceful nuclear activities," Tass quoted spokesman Mikhail Kamynin as saying.

A Russian national security official said separately that sanctions did not figure on Russia's agenda at this stage.

The international community awaits the April 28th deadline as set by the United Nations Security Council.

However, it is clear that Iran will NOT stop uranium enrichment and Russia and China WILL NOT support sanctions.

Will the Europeans and the United States have the political will to sanction Iran now or will they wait until the future?

Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran

Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar gestures after a wreath laying ceremony in Baku April 20, 2006. The prospect of the United States taking military action against Iran over its nuclear programme is empty talk, Najjar said on Thursday.

Reuters: Iran defence minister dismisses talk of US attack

The prospect of the United States using force to halt Iran’s nuclear programme is empty talk, Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said on Thursday.

U.S. President George W. Bush says he is using diplomacy to curb Iran’s atomic ambitions, but has not ruled out military options, even including a nuclear strike, to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons.

“The United States has been threatening Iran for 27 years and this is not new for us. Therefore we are never afraid of U.S. threats,” Najjar told reporters during a visit to neighbouring Azerbaijan.

“If you take into account the fact that they are not doing anything, this shows it is just talk,” he said.

“We are ready to resolve all issues through negotiations (but) if we are confronted with something, we are ready to deal with it,” the minister added.

RIA NOVOSTI: Russia will deliver air defense systems to Iran – top general

The chief of the General Staff said Wednesday that Russia would honor its commitments on supplying military equipment to Iran.

“We discussed supplies of military equipment to Iran, including the Tor M1, in the framework of bilateral cooperation, but it does not fall into the category of strategic weapons,” Army General Yury Baluyevsky said after talks in Moscow with NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General James Jones.

“And I can assure you it will be delivered under the control of the relevant organizations,” he said.

At the end of 2005, Russia concluded a $700-million contract on the delivery of 29 Tor M1 air defense systems to Iran.

The Tor-M1 is a fifth-generation integrated mobile air defense system designed for operation at medium, low and very low altitudes against fixed/rotary wing aircraft, UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle), guided missiles and other high-precision weapons.

Despite strong criticism from the United States, Russia has maintained that the systems could be used only to protect Iran’s air space.

Baluyevsky also said Russia’s Armed Forces would not be involved in any military conflict in Iran.

“I do not think the conflict [in Iran] will turn into a war,” he said. “Russia will not propose the use of its armed forces in a potential military conflict on either side.”

AFP: Russian-built nuclear power station in Iran no threat: Moscow

A nuclear power station being built by Russia in Iran presents no threat, Moscow’s top nuclear official said here following a US demand for the project to be shut down.

The building of the Bushehr nuclear power station does not threaten the non-proliferation regime,” Rosatom nuclear agency head Sergei Kiriyenko told journalists in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said during a visit to Moscow Thursday that “it is important for countries to stop cooperation with Iran on nuclear issues, even on civilian nuclear issues like the Bushehr facility.”

Burns made clear that he was talking about various countries’ work with Iran’s nuclear industry. However, Russia is Iran’s biggest nuclear partner and is building the country’s first atomic power station at Bushehr.

“A number of countries are continuing to permit the export of dual-use materials that could be used, and we think in some cases are being used, to help the growth of Iran’s nuclear industry,” Burns said.

“It is the view of my government that it would be appropriate now for those individual governments to stop that practice and no longer permit it.”

AP: Russia to Set Iran Position After Report

Russia will decide its stance on the Iranian nuclear crisis based on a report next week by the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the deputy foreign minister said Thursday.

Sergei Kislyak said consultations would be held after the April 28 release of the report by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Both Russia and China have been resistant to levying sanctions against Iran in response to suspicions over its nuclear program.

“We will determine our reaction depending on the contents of the report,” Kislyak was quoted as saying by the ITAR-Tass news agency. “The IAEA has ideas of what is happening and what is not happening in Iran. We’ll be relying on these evaluations.”

China on Thursday renewed calls for a negotiated settlement.

“We hope relevant parties will exercise restraint and show flexibility to properly handle the Iranian nuclear issue, to create conditions for the solution of the issue through negotiations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said at a regular briefing in Beijing.

TAR-Tass quoted an unnamed Iranian source as saying that Russian diplomats were meeting Thursday with an Iranian delegation led by Javad Vaidi, deputy secretary of Iran’s National Security Council. The Russians were briefing the Iranians on the results of meetings in Moscow this week between the five permanent U.N. Security Council members, plus Germany, ITAR-Tass reported.

And anyone in the international community EXPECTS Russia to sanction their business partner, Iran?

The United States will push for a punishing resolution in the United Nations Security Council. Then, listen to the squeals coming from Russia and China.

The United States and Israel are alone in dealing with Iran’s uranium enrichment program AND they WILL deal with it.

Stay tuned……..

Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran

French president Jacques Chirac(R) is welcomed by his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak at the presidential Palace in Cairo. World powers showed divisions over how to halt Iran’s nuclear drive even as the United States claimed growing support for sanctions.

AFP: Chirac, Mubarak urge diplomacy with Iran

French President Jacques Chirac and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak urged nations to pursue diplomacy rather than military force with Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

“We must explore all diplomatic possibilities,” Chirac said at a press conference in Cairo after arriving for a two-day visit during which he was expected to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s nuclear ambitions with his counterpart.

Mubarak expressed the same view as Chirac and also warned against the use of military force.

“This question must be resolved through diplomatic and political means, distancing military operations which would have dangerous repercussions in the region,” Mubarak said after meeting with the French president.

AFP: US ‘will do what we have to do’ against Iran

A top US diplomat refused to rule out unilateral action by the United States to curb Iran’s nuclear program but said it would be “best” to work with other countries in doing so.

“We are going to act to deny Iran nuclear weapons capability,” US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns told reporters here after two days of talks with other world powers on how to resolve the Iran nuclear impasse.

“We think that the best way forward is to work with other countries and we’ve invested a lot of time in that,” he said.

But he added: “I think we’ve made our view clear in Washington, our administration, and that is that it is absolutely not in our interest or anyone else’s to have Iran with nuclear weapons.

“And so we’re going to do what we have to do to prevent that from occurring.”

AP: Ahmadinejad: Oil Price Is Lower Than Value

Wading into oil politics for the first time, Iran’s hard-line president said Wednesday that crude oil prices — now at record levels — still are below their true value.

In statements likely to rattle world oil markets, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also said developed countries, not producing countries like Iran, are benefiting the most from the current high prices.

“The global oil price has not reached its real value yet. The products derived from crude oil are sold at prices dozens of times higher than those charged by oil-producing countries,” state-run Tehran radio quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

“The developed nations are the biggest beneficiary of the added value of oil products,” he said.

Reuters: Rice says US will use varied means to stop Iran

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday the United States would use political, economic and other measures to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Speaking to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, Rice said the international community agreed Iran could not have a nuclear weapon and was mobilized to respond.

On Tuesday, President George W. Bush refused to rule out nuclear strikes against Iran if diplomacy failed to curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.

“In order to turn the Iranians back from what has been behavior that is contrary to all the wishes of the international community, we are prepared to use measures at our disposal — political, economic, others, to dissuade Iran,” Rice said in reply to a question on Iran.

When asked what the threshold would be for military action against Iran, Rice reiterated that political and economic pressure should run its course. However she stressed the president’s view that all options remained on the table.

Las Vegas Sun: Reid blasts Bush during Reno visit

The Bush administration is relying too heavily on other countries in the international effort to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, according to Sen. Harry Reid.

Reid, D-Nev., said the administration should be taking the lead, but instead is relying on Germany, France and Great Britain to convince Iran to end its uranium enrichment program.

“It is hard to comprehend,” Reid said Tuesday in Reno. “We should be involved at trying to arrive at a diplomatic solution. … Not just these three countries.”

Reid said the Middle East is a “powder keg” because of U.S. failures in Iraq, the rise of fundamentalism and the recent election of Hamas in Palestine.

“Our not being involved diplomatically in trying to solve the situation in Iran shows the Bush failure in foreign policy there and elsewhere.”

And he said the U.S. has no military option in Iran.

“We don’t have the resources to do it” because of the ongoing war in Iraq,” he said.

Everybody is a critic of President Bush and the administration’s negotiating policy towards Iran.

Doesn’t everyone agree that Iran should not develop a nuclear weapon? And doesn’t everyone prefer diplomatic negotiations over a military operation?

Good! Flap knows now we can all get along.

Diplomacy takes time and everyone is a Monday morning quarterback. But, it is the President’s decision and it will be W. who will decide there has been enough negotiation and too little action.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran

U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns gestures as he speaks during a news conference in Moscow, Wednesday, April 19, 2006. Burns said Wednesday that a majority of the countries that are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Group of Eight members support possible sanctions against Iran in the dispute over the country’s nuclear program.

ASSociated Press: U.S.: More Countries Back Iran Sanctions

A top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday that most of the U.N. Security Council’s permanent members and the Group of Eight support possible sanctions against Iran in the dispute over that country’s nuclear program.

Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns also said the United States has not given up on efforts to resolve the dispute through diplomacy. Earlier this week, President Bush said “all options are on the table” — including the military option — to prevent Iran from developing atomic weapons.

“Nearly every country is considering some sort of sanctions and that’s new,” Burns told reporters after two days of meetings in Moscow.

He declined to specify which countries support possible sanctions. Russia and China, both of which are permanent Security Council members, are seen as the most likely to resist sanctions.

ASSociated Press: U.S. May Turn to Watchdog Agency on Iran

The United States may turn to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency to exert more pressure on Iran over its atomic program out of frustration with Russian and Chinese opposition to firm Security Council action, diplomats said Wednesday.

The diplomats, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal the American initiative, said the U.S. delegation to the International Atomic Energy Agency had contacted other national delegations over the past few days to gauge support for a special IAEA board meeting on Iran.

Reuters: Iran unlikely to meet UN demands: Straw

Britain does not expect Iran to comply with U.N. demands to halt uranium enrichment by the end of April, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said on Wednesday.

“We are working on the basis that Iran will not meet the proposals from the Security Council on the 30-day deadline,” Straw told BBC Radio Four in an interview from Saudi Arabia.

He declined to say later to reporters what action he thought the Security Council might then take.

Bloomberg.com: Iran Facing `Isolation, Costs’ Over Nuclear Stance (Update1)

Envoys meeting in Moscow to discuss Iran’s nuclear development agreed the Islamic Republic must face international action for defying the United Nations by enriching uranium, said Nicholas Burns, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs.

“All of us want to take one collective, multilateral action in New York at the Security Council,” Burns told reporters. The delegates share a “general notion that Iran has to feel the isolation and pressure of the international community and they have to have some costs to what they are doing,” he said.

A majority of the delegations agreed that sanctions against Iran are necessary, without deciding on specifics, Burns said. He spoke after two days of meetings to discuss the standoff with representatives from the four other permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany.

AFP: US demands end to Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation

The United States demanded an end to Russia’s cooperation with Iran in building the Islamic republic’s first civilian nuclear power station.

“We also think it is important for countries to stop cooperation with Iran on nuclear issues, even on civilian nuclear issues like the Bushehr facility,” US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns told journalists in Moscow.

Burns made clear that he was talking about various countries’ work with Iran’s nuclear industry. However, Russia is Iran’s biggest nuclear partner and is building the country’s first atomic power station at Bushehr.

“A number of countries are continuing to permit the export of dual-use materials that could be used, and we think in some cases are being used, to help the growth of Iran’s nuclear industry,” Burns said.

“It is the view of my government that it would be appropriate now for those individual governments to stop that practice and no longer permit it.”

Well, Russia cannot have it both ways, now can they?

Negotiations are going NOWHERE but the United States puts on a good “SHOW.”

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

The Iran Nuclear Watch Files

Technorati Tags: Iran