Giuliani Notes: Rudy Weighing Ames Straw Poll Decision

Republican presidential hopeful former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani discusses small business issues with local Republicans Friday, May 4, 2007, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Des Moines Register: Giuliani waits to pick a path on straw poll

News Analysis: Aides say he’s not sure joining in the pre-caucus GOP vote would help him.

Republican Rudy Giuliani has been stuck for weeks on a key decision in his presidential campaign: whether to compete in the Iowa Republican Party’s straw poll in Ames this summer.

The former New York City mayor’s top Iowa advisers have encouraged him to take part in the year’s marquee national GOP event as part of building what Giuliani has said he hopes will be a winning campaign for the leadoff Iowa caucuses in January.

But the final say belongs to Giuliani, who plans to decide in the coming weeks how the event could benefit or cost him.

If he says yes to the straw poll, it will raise the stakes for this closely watched first measure of Iowa support by ensuring the participation of all the better-known candidates in the race. Giuliani’s participation also would underscore the significance of the caucuses in the new fast-track presidential nominating schedule.

A decision to take part in the straw poll would also put to its first test Giuliani’s oft-stated assertion that he can withstand social conservatives’ differences with him on some key social issues, such as his support for abortion rights.

“I think that a candidate creates his or her electorate in many ways, if they are a strong enough candidate or a powerful enough candidate,” Giuliani said in a recent interview with The Des Moines Register.

If he says no, it will make the straw poll a less meaningful early test of campaign strength in Iowa.

Likewise, should Giuliani pass on the straw poll, it would make less clear Iowa’s significance in the heavily front-loaded caucus and primary schedule.

Flap sees NO advantage to Rudy to participate. Every campaign has to make resource allocation decisions and frankly Iowa’s outdated system of caucuses costs too much money and candidate time.

The Mayor would be much better to save those resources for Florida and California that have many more GOP delegates in play. Televison ads in Florida and California are a much better bet.

In the early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina, Giuliani polls the worst. He might be able to win one of these three or come in second in all of them. But, Rudy’s real strength comes in the Northeast, Florida and the West on February 5th.

This decison is a NO Brainer.

Update:

Hotline has Rudy’s Competing In New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina

Rudy may have “budgeted” money for New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina but why bother with states where it is almost certain you will not win.

Flap agrees that Nevada’s caucuses that are held January 19th are worth contending but Iowa and South Carolina?

Not going to happen……..

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani,Ames Straw Poll