President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states.

Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Without a doubt, Mitt Romney will need to win all of these states in order to deny President Obama re-election.

This poll is something for the GOP to consider before they nominate him or Santorum.

Florida GOP Primary:

In Florida, which will hold its potentially-pivotal primary on Jan. 31, Gingrich leads Romney, 35 percent to 22 percent, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and businessman Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign on Dec. 3, each at 8 percent. When Republicans are asked to choose between only Gingrich and Romney, the former speaker leads by a wider margin, 52 percent to 34 percent.

Gingrich’s 13-point lead against the full field is less than his 23-point advantage in a CNN/Time/ORC International poll released Wednesday. The CNN/Time/ORC poll was conducted among likely primary voters, while Quinnipiac surveyed all registered Republicans.

In the Florida general election:

• Romney – 45% Vs. Obama – 42%
• Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich 44%

Obama approval in Florida is at 41% vs. 54% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 33% vs. 57% disapprove and white voters approve 30% vs. 66% disapprove.

Ohio GOP Primary:

Ohio’s presidential primary is currently slated for June — though it may yet be moved to March. Gingrich leads Romney, 36 percent to 18 percent in the matchup with the full field, an advantage that grows to 27 points in a head-to-head contest.

In the Ohio general election:

• Romney – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%
• Gingrich – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%

Obama approval in Ohio is at 41% Vs. 55% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 38% Vs. 57%.

The full Quinnipiac Poll is here.

For President Obama, the path to a second term is going to be an uphill climb.

While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama’s tenure and the nation’s politics.

One year before Election Day, the debut Swing States survey charts a narrower and more difficult course to victory for Obama than he navigated four years ago — and shows opportunities for Republicans in some states that have gone Democratic for decades.

Obama has “had some really good ideas … but he’s struggling with trying to get his ideas into place and dealing with Congress, and he hasn’t done a very good job with that,” Mary Jo Jones, 57, of Grand Rapids, Mich., said in a followup interview after being surveyed. She supported Obama in 2008 but would consider switching in 2012 to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, if Republicans nominate him. “He seems to be a pretty good businessman, and he might have some ideas to help us on the economy.”

Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.

The American economy has been so poor in these states, for far too long. American voters are looking for action and I do not think they will be seeing it with Obama.

Watch the polling in these states. If all of them start to break against the President, he could be toast earlier rather than later.

With Obama announcing his re-election today, here is our revised NBC Political Unit Battleground map for the 2012 election. It shows Democrats with 232 electoral votes either in the solid, likely, or lean column, and it has Republicans with 191 electoral votes. There are 115 electoral votes in the Toss-up column. A few states to keep an eye on THIS year when it comes to the Obama campaign: AZ, GA, and TX. All three are long shots, but all three showed significant population gains for minorities in the last 10 years. And the campaign is going to attempt to at least experiment with organizing in these three states to see if any of them are worth truly battling for when the calendar turns from 2011 to 2012.

• Solid Dem: DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
• Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR (105)
• Lean Dem: MI, MN, NJ, PA (60)
• Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, VA, WI (115)
• Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, MT, NE (one EV) (41)
• Likely GOP: AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)
• Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

Well, I did the math and the analysis some time ago and here are my picks:

I think we can say that from this poll that these states:

• Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
• Virginia – 13
• Colorado – 9
• Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
• Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
• Wisconsin -10
• New Hampshire – 4
• Indiana – 11
• North Carolina – 15

and add in Pennyslvania -20: -1 after reapportionment – will be in the competitive range, if the GOP nominates the RIGHT candidate.

If all of the key battleground states listed above were to flip to the Republican candidate a total of 135 electoral votes would shift. The GOP candidate would win 305 Electoral votes Vs. 230 for Obama (provided Obama wins all of the states he won in 2008). 270 votes are needed to win.

So, we are pretty much in agreement except for perhaps Iowa and New Mexico, which I see going for Obama. Now that we have settled conventional wisdom on where the race will happen, will Republican voters choose a candidate who can compete with President Obama in these states?

This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.

In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.

That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.

Nothing really new here, except that both Romney and Gingrich both lead Obama. The key battleground states to my analysis are really just 4: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

This is my view of how the Electoral College Map will look at the end of the race for 2012:

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

All of the pundits, including Gallup and USA Today above can talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Wisconsin. But, who cares?

All the GOP Presidential candidate has to do is hold the “RED States” and win the top four battleground swing states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

But, watch out for Nevada because if it goes blue, there would be a tie. Whoever then controls the House would then decide who the President is.

This is where the polling should be concentrated and forget the rest. My best guess is that the GOP candidate, whoever it might be will be able to win in these states due to voter disenchantment with the President. Barring a MAJOR GAFFE, the GOP is looking good to recapture the White House – if the election were held today.

I look forward to seeing the state by state polls of hypothetical match-ups. You know, the White House and the RNC have them and track them daily.

Just watch the campaign itinerary of the President and you will get a sense as to who is ahead and where.