• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states.

    Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

    The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    Without a doubt, Mitt Romney will need to win all of these states in order to deny President Obama re-election.

    This poll is something for the GOP to consider before they nominate him or Santorum.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obama Struggles

    Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at a town hall style event in the Staten Island borough of New York Saturday, Dec. 3, 2011

    According to the latest Quinnipiac Polls in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. I don’t really call Pennsylvania a key battleground state since it is more than likely to be “blue” in 2012 anyway. But, Florida and Ohio are.

    Florida GOP Primary:

    In Florida, which will hold its potentially-pivotal primary on Jan. 31, Gingrich leads Romney, 35 percent to 22 percent, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and businessman Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign on Dec. 3, each at 8 percent. When Republicans are asked to choose between only Gingrich and Romney, the former speaker leads by a wider margin, 52 percent to 34 percent.

    Gingrich’s 13-point lead against the full field is less than his 23-point advantage in a CNN/Time/ORC International poll released Wednesday. The CNN/Time/ORC poll was conducted among likely primary voters, while Quinnipiac surveyed all registered Republicans.

    In the Florida general election:

    • Romney – 45% Vs. Obama – 42%
    • Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich 44%

    Obama approval in Florida is at 41% vs. 54% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 33% vs. 57% disapprove and white voters approve 30% vs. 66% disapprove.

    Ohio GOP Primary:

    Ohio’s presidential primary is currently slated for June — though it may yet be moved to March. Gingrich leads Romney, 36 percent to 18 percent in the matchup with the full field, an advantage that grows to 27 points in a head-to-head contest.

    In the Ohio general election:

    • Romney – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%
    • Gingrich – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%

    Obama approval in Ohio is at 41% Vs. 55% disapprove of his job as President. Independent voter approval is at 38% Vs. 57%.

    The full Quinnipiac Poll is here.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Faces an Uphill Path to Re-Election in Key Battleground States

    The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

    Indeed, President Obama does, especially due to the economy in those states.

    For President Obama, the path to a second term is going to be an uphill climb.

    While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama’s tenure and the nation’s politics.

    One year before Election Day, the debut Swing States survey charts a narrower and more difficult course to victory for Obama than he navigated four years ago — and shows opportunities for Republicans in some states that have gone Democratic for decades.

    Obama has “had some really good ideas … but he’s struggling with trying to get his ideas into place and dealing with Congress, and he hasn’t done a very good job with that,” Mary Jo Jones, 57, of Grand Rapids, Mich., said in a followup interview after being surveyed. She supported Obama in 2008 but would consider switching in 2012 to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, if Republicans nominate him. “He seems to be a pretty good businessman, and he might have some ideas to help us on the economy.”

    Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.

    The American economy has been so poor in these states, for far too long. American voters are looking for action and I do not think they will be seeing it with Obama.

    Watch the polling in these states. If all of them start to break against the President, he could be toast earlier rather than later.

  • American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Jimmy Carter,  President 2012,  Ronald Reagan,  Unemployment Rate

    President 2012: In Key Battleground States Unemployment Has Increased Since October 2008

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

    Chris illizza over at the Washington Post looks at key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012 and gives the data. You know the question in one of the Presidential debates to President Obama will be (like GOP challenger Ronald Reagan asked President Jimmy Carter in 1980): “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

    Well, with the regards to unemployment the news is not good for President Obama.

    And that raw political reality could put President Obama in a difficult spot as he prepares to seek another four years in the White House amid conflicting signs about the relative health of the economy.

    The state-by-state unemployment numbers released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the story.

    In every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008.

    The increases range from the tiny — just a 0.7-point jump in Minnesota and New Hampshire — to the titanic in places like Nevada (up 4.4 points) and Florida (up 3.6).

    And, Obama’s only response will be: “You should have seen how bad it would have been.”

    I don’t know if this is going to wash in Nevada and Florida.

    But, on the other hand of these 14 swing states that Cillizza mentions only 4 have May unemployment above the national average. But, you know that is spin and unemployment generally is worse since President Obama has been in office.

    President Reagan beat Jimmy Carter on the answer to the “better off” question. He won re-election because while unemployment was high, it was improving.

    That “trend line” vote is why the late President Ronald Reagan won a second term overwhelmingly in 1984 despite the fact that the unemployment rate was at 7.3 percent in October of the election year. (It had been at 10.3 percent as recently as March 1983.)

    The best way for Obama to counteract the “are you better off” question is to have evidence to point to that things are turning around — that whether or not you believe the country was on the brink of an economic catastrophe you see signs that your financial situation is improving and have reason to hope the future will be brighter.

    The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests he’s not there yet.

    No, President Obama is not there yet and unless the economy improves very quickly, he will go the way of Jimmy Carter.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: The Key Battleground States for the 2012 Presidential Race

    From February 23, 2011 Gallup Polling

    First Read over at NBC with today’s Obama re-election announcement has their picks for the key 2012 Presidential battleground states.

    With Obama announcing his re-election today, here is our revised NBC Political Unit Battleground map for the 2012 election. It shows Democrats with 232 electoral votes either in the solid, likely, or lean column, and it has Republicans with 191 electoral votes. There are 115 electoral votes in the Toss-up column. A few states to keep an eye on THIS year when it comes to the Obama campaign: AZ, GA, and TX. All three are long shots, but all three showed significant population gains for minorities in the last 10 years. And the campaign is going to attempt to at least experiment with organizing in these three states to see if any of them are worth truly battling for when the calendar turns from 2011 to 2012.

    • Solid Dem: DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
    • Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR (105)
    • Lean Dem: MI, MN, NJ, PA (60)
    • Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, VA, WI (115)
    • Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, MT, NE (one EV) (41)
    • Likely GOP: AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)
    • Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

    Well, I did the math and the analysis some time ago and here are my picks:

    I think we can say that from this poll that these states:

    • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
    • Virginia – 13
    • Colorado – 9
    • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
    • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
    • Wisconsin -10
    • New Hampshire – 4
    • Indiana – 11
    • North Carolina – 15

    and add in Pennyslvania -20: -1 after reapportionment – will be in the competitive range, if the GOP nominates the RIGHT candidate.

    If all of the key battleground states listed above were to flip to the Republican candidate a total of 135 electoral votes would shift. The GOP candidate would win 305 Electoral votes Vs. 230 for Obama (provided Obama wins all of the states he won in 2008). 270 votes are needed to win.

    So, we are pretty much in agreement except for perhaps Iowa and New Mexico, which I see going for Obama. Now that we have settled conventional wisdom on where the race will happen, will Republican voters choose a candidate who can compete with President Obama in these states?

    The big question.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Looks Strong in Key Battleground States – Same Electoral Votes as 2008?

    For now he does, but he is not up by much and there is a long way to go.

    In 2008 Barack Obama won nine states and one electoral vote giving Congressional district that had gone to George W. Bush in 2004. We’ve now polled every single one of those over the last three months except for Indiana, where we can’t do one because of restrictions on automated polling in the state. Across 36 horse race match ups against Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District Obama is 36 for 36. If he stood for reelection today against one of the current Republican front runners Obama would almost certainly win the same number of electoral votes he did in 2008, if not more.

    I would say that New Hampshire will be in play as well, whereas New Mexico probably will not be.

    So, what does the GOP need to do?

    Probably field new and better candidates because with the exisiting worn out field of four (Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin) they will be beaten by Obama in 2012. Or, they can right off the Presidency and concentrate on U.S. Senate and Congressional races and wait until 2016.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Gingrich and Romney Both Beating Obama in Key Battleground Swing States

    According to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll.

    This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

    Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

    But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.

    In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.

    That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.

    Nothing really new here, except that both Romney and Gingrich both lead Obama. The key battleground states to my analysis are really just 4: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

    This is my view of how the Electoral College Map will look at the end of the race for 2012:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

    All of the pundits, including Gallup and USA Today above can talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Wisconsin. But, who cares?

    All the GOP Presidential candidate has to do is hold the “RED States” and win the top four battleground swing states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.

    But, watch out for Nevada because if it goes blue, there would be a tie. Whoever then controls the House would then decide who the President is.

    This is where the polling should be concentrated and forget the rest. My best guess is that the GOP candidate, whoever it might be will be able to win in these states due to voter disenchantment with the President. Barring a MAJOR GAFFE, the GOP is looking good to recapture the White House – if the election were held today.

    I look forward to seeing the state by state polls of hypothetical match-ups. You know, the White House and the RNC have them and track them daily.

    Just watch the campaign itinerary of the President and you will get a sense as to who is ahead and where.

  • Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Super PAC Restore Our Future Ad Buys Reveal States Which Are in Play for Mitt Romney

    Restore Our Future: Saved

    This positive ad has aired before for Mitt Romney but where it is “on air” is quite revealing.

    A pro-Romney super PAC, Restore our Future, is reaching into the memory chest for its first big ad buy of the general election season, running a 30-second spot that recounts how Mitt Romney helped track down the daughter of a business partner in 1996.

    The ad, called “Saved,” will run in nine battleground states, costing the group a total of $4.3 million, the PAC said in a statement. A major force in helping Mr. Romney beat back his Republican challengers, Restore Our Future is now turning to the battle against President Barack Obama with a distinctly positive biographical spot intended to boost Mr. Romney’s personal image by touching on a little-known episode from two decades ago.

    The Romney campaign briefly ran a nearly identical spot in late 2007 in an effort to boost the candidate’s standing before the primary season began. In this election cycle, the super PAC has  run the ads in 16 states around the country during the lead up to primaries in those states.

    The group plans to run the ad in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

    No real secret as to what are the key battleground states – just where Mitt Romney will spend the advertising dollars to win them.

    Now, we know.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Now Beating All GOP Contenders in Swing States

    U.S. President Barack Obama holds up a padlock alongside Master Lock’s Senior Vice President Bob Rice as Obama tours the factory in Milwaukee, Wisconsin February 15, 2012

    According to the latest Fox News Poll.

    A new Fox News poll of key battleground states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — shows the same.  

    • Obama leads Romney 47% to 39% – +8
    • Obama tops Santorum 48% to 38% – +10
    • Obama beats Paul 48% to 37% – +11
    • Obama crushes Gingrich 52% to 32% – +20

    Wow have things changed!


    America feels the economy is a little better and the GOP Presidential candidates are bashing the hell out of themselves – exposing all of their flaws.

    So, really what do you expect?

    I will add one more – the GOP Presidential field is very weak.

  • GOP,  Polling

    Cheer Up Republicans: More States Go RED in 2011

    According to the latest Gallup analysis.

    Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents’ party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008. Meanwhile, 19 states including the District of Columbia showed a solid or leaning Democratic orientation, down from 23 in 2010 and 36 in 2008. The remaining 15 states were relatively balanced politically, with neither party having a clear advantage.

    Here is the chart:

    Remember in 2008 after the Obama victory when the LEFT blogs and MSM sites were crowing that the Republican Party had become merely a “regional” party?

    Uh, well look again.

    Looks to me that the same can be said of the Democratic Party today. New York, Illinois and California and their large urban populations are the major portions of the 2012 Democratic Party – hardly a majority in America.

    A more extensive chart of state by state data is here.

    So, Republicans cheer up!

    The GOP controls the House and may very well win control of the U.S. Senate in November.

    As for the Presidency, the race may be tough, especially with an improving economy, but the gains made since 2008 have been staggering. Obama and the Democrats WILL have a race on their hands this summer and fall.

    In the last four years, the political leanings of Americans have increasingly moved toward the Republican Party after shifting decidedly Democratic between 2005 and 2008. In 2008, Democrats had one of the largest advantages in party affiliation they have had in the last 20 years, likely because of the unpopularity of President George W. Bush in the latter years of his presidency. Prior to that, the parties were more evenly balanced. So the movement away from the Democratic Party may just be a return to a more normal state of political affairs from an unusual situation, rather than a rejection of the Democrats per se.

    The net result of the movement is that the nation looks to be essentially even in terms of its party loyalties headed into a presidential election year. Clearly, President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president.

    Also, here is a chart of the states with the most competitive party affiliation (really the key battleground states for 2012):