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Archive for the “California Citizens Redistricting Commission” Category


Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

It looks likely.
Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

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Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

I have known Rep. Elton Gallegly for almost 30 years. While I have not discussed his re-election propsects with him, I do know that he is doing campaign events and recently moved his Congressional office from Westlake Village to Camarillo.

I say Gallegly is running, despite the referendum (which I understand the campaign for which is NOT actively gathering signatures). There is NO groomed successor and Elton is quite aware that there would be a split in the Ventura County GOP, if he retires at this time. He does not want such a split to be his legacy.

Elton is also aware that Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman WILL run in CA-26, if Elton retires, since Sherman has represented some of the Congressional District previously. The GOP would be quite content to have Sherman and Howard Berman face off against each other in a San Fernando Valley centric Congressional District.

So, sorry to California State Senator Tony Strickland and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. If you want CA-26, you will have to beat Elton and his $800K bank roll.

Here is Timm Herdt’s analysis of the race.

Here are the demographics of the new CA-26 Congressional District.

And, how the CA-26 performed in previous elections.


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Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

I have to agree with Republican political operative and consultant Rob Stutzman.
What will it take to win these competitive seats? We will have to do the hard work of becoming a more competitive party. We have to expand our message to Latinos and field candidates who can compete in marginal districts. These new maps will finally force to the surface Republican candidates in California who can compete and win in swing districts.

Since 1992, Republican voter registration has fallen by 8 percent. Recently released Field Poll data make the point even clearer. At the same time, our party message is not resonating with younger voters as the GOP is a graying electorate. More than half of current California Republican voters are over the age of 50, up from 40 percent in 1992.

Republican registration in the Latino community has nearly stagnated since 1992, growing only one percent at a time when the state’s Hispanic voters doubled during that time from 10 percent to 22 percent.

In a state that has dipped to only 31 percent GOP registration, providing more opportunities to be competitive is a positive development. We have been slowly withering to a darker shade of blue here, but shedding the gerrymander of the past decade gives us the chance to adapt and learn to win again.

The California Congressional redistricting is probably as fair as you are going to achieve vis a vis population and federal voting rights demographics.

I understand that, although a referendum has been approved for signature circulation to overturn the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s Congressional District plan that no actual signatures are being solicited.

Yes, there will be few long time GOP Congressmen who will be forced either into retirement or to run in districts where there will actually be a contested race.

Isn’t that why we have elections?

California Republicans will be far better to accept the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s and use any money raised for the referendum in party building activities.

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I have a new post up over at Flap’s California Blog on the Flap.

Go here and read which California State Senators might FLIP.

Kind of interesting that the California Republican Party is asking Republican donors to support a referendum to overturn the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission’s State Senate Redistricting Maps and these Senators FLIP to support a Democratic position anyway.

I mean, why bother, when all of the Republicans become RINOS (Republican in Name Only)?

By the way, the legislation which will likely be heard in the California State Senate tomorrow, requires three (3) Republican Senators to FLIP (NB: none voted for the Amazon Tax when it first came through the California Legislature).

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