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Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here. -
President 2012: Should Paul Ryan Run for President?
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) unveils the House Republican budget blueprint in the Capitol in Washington April 5, 2011
Yes, and the case for a duty call is obvious.Jennifer Rubin makes the case as well.
In a very practical sense, the question for Ryan is: Why not give his party and the country six months (September 2011 to February 2012)? By then he’ll either have failed to catch fire or he’ll have a clear path to the presidential nomination. Six months. Twenty-four weeks. For a politician constantly at work in Congress, in town halls and in media appearances, that doesn’t sound like that much. (In fact, I would venture that his schedule is more rigorous now than the average presidential contender’s.)
You see, there is no good reason for Ryan to avoid a presidential run. Sometimes, if you don’t see the opening and seize it, a better one never comes along. Bill Clinton understood this in 1992.
Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan should all consider running for the Presidency. Obama is wounded and the GOP needs popular and articulate candidates.
Duty Calls.
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Chris Christie, John Kasich, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker
President 2012: Huckabee is Out – Michele, Newt and Mitch In?
The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).
Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.
Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.
Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.
Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.
And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.
And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.
Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.
Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.
Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?
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President 2012: Jeb Bush is Still a NO
Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”
This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.
My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.
After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.
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Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Poll Watch: 65% will Not Vote for Sarah Palin, 64% Will Not Vote for Donald Trump
According to the latest Gallup Poll.More than 6 in 10 registered voters nationwide say they would definitely not vote for Donald Trump or Sarah Palin for president in 2012, significantly more than say the same about possible Republican candidates Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, or about President Barack Obama.
This is not really surprising but I doubt it means much. I doubt Sarah Palin or Donald Trump will be candidates for the GOP nomination for President.
What is most interesting to me is that 46% of Americans polled say they will NOT vote for President Obama which is about the same for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.
While the Donald Trump show has been amuzing the past few weeks, it has served as an outlet for Americans who have decided that they do not wish to re-elect President Obama. There are sufficient Republican canddates in Huckabee and Romney who can make a credible run against the President. I, also believe, there will be other candidates who will emerge within the next 30-60 days who have accomplished records that can also be viewed as viable candidates, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.
Trump’s attention-grabbing, high-visibility statements and his ability to generate large amounts of news coverage cut two ways. On the one hand, Trump has undeniably dominated news coverage of the Republican race in the last several weeks, vaulting him into the middle of political and election news discussion and coverage. On the other hand, Trump’s ability to generate publicity apparently has its costs, as his image has turned more negative and as more than 6 in 10 voters across the country already say they would definitely not vote for him.
Trump also faces apparent obstacles in his efforts to gain the Republican nomination, should he decide to run. Almost half of Republican registered voters at this point say they would definitely not vote for him, the highest of any of the four possible GOP candidates measured in this survey.
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Barack Obama, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin
President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 48% Vs. Mike Huckabee 43%, Barack Obama 47% Vs. Mitt Romney 41%
Chart from PollsterAccording to the latest PPP Poll.Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 48%
GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42%
- Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
- Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
- Newt Gingrich – 28% vs. 55%
- Rand Paul – 26% Vs. 45%
- Chris Christie – 28% Vs. 30%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 41%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 36%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 38%
- Obama – 48% Vs Christie – 39%
Again, this is an aggregate national poll but it shows a couple of things:
- Obama has a negative approval rating
- This GOP candidate field is weak against the President in the general election.
Additionally, President Obama is doing well with independent voters.
The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.
If the GOP wants to beat Obama in 2012, they had better develop a better candidate field, consolidate behind him or her and be ready to hit the ground running after Labor Day 2011. The delay in the GOP selection process may allow say a Rep. Paul Ryan or Governor Mitch Daniels to jump into the field and become the fresh face of the GOP.
The GOP needs such a candidate, if they wish to win next year.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: President Obama as a Strong Leader = Not So Much
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Americans have grown increasingly less likely to view President Obama as a strong and decisive leader since he took office. Roughly half now believe this aptly describes, him compared with 60% a year ago and 73% in April 2009.
And, only 36% say Obama has a clear plan for solving America’s problems.
So, what does this mean?
Throughout this year in office, President Obama’s ratings on several dimensions, including job approval and most personal characteristics, trended downward, but have since more or less stabilized. One notable exception to that general pattern is perception of the president as a strong and decisive leader, which has continued to drop, and now only a slim majority of Americans rate him positively in this regard.
Given the timing of the two most recent ratings on Obama as a strong and decisive leader (March 2010 and 2011), it is not clear how much the recent events in the Middle East have contributed to this perception. Obama’s overall job approval rating in Gallup Daily tracking has fluctuated since mid-March, roughly coinciding with the military campaign in Libya. For the week of March 21-27, though, Obama averaged 45% approval and 47% disapproval, his worst since December.
Moreover, Obama’s ratings for handling the situations in Libya and Egypt have not been stellar but also not poor. In any case, much of the 2011 news coverage has focused on major international events and President Obama’s response to these events has been a key element of that coverage.
Politically, it means the President is vulnerable – if the Republicans can get their act together and nominate a strong leader = hello Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
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President 2012 New Jersey GOP Poll Watch: Romney 13% Christie 12% Palin 11% Huckabee 6%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
Here are the results:
Undoubtedly, should Governor Chris Christie decide to run for the Presidency, he would poll much higher. But, while Mitt Romney does a little better than Christie he is not very far ahead of Sarah Palin.
Here is a more expanded breakdown of the results:
A very blue Democratic State, New jersey does not figure to be in play for the GOP versus President Obama.
Looking toward the 2012 presidential election, nearly half the state’s registered voters (48 percent) say President Barack Obama deserves re-election, while 39 percent disagree.
Republicans are split on an opponent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 12 percent, Christie at 11 percent, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin receiving 10 percent support.
Forty-two percent did not name a candidateThe sample of this poll is very small and its relevance is questionable. But it illustrates there is no GOP front runner.
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Chris Christie, John Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Insiders Poll Hot on Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty – NOT Hot on Sarah Palin
According to the latest National Journal “Insiders” poll.In the view of Democratic and Republican political operatives, the potential 2012 GOP White House hopefuls whose fortunes are most on the rise are Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is a rapidly depreciating asset, according to this week’s National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
While no Republican could-be candidate towered above the field, GOP Insiders focused on Daniels and Pawlenty as two whose stock has been rising in recent months, but for very different reasons. Daniels, who has taken few overt steps towards mounting a national campaign, is seen as someone who could champion the Republican themes of shrinking government and cutting spending and also has the record in Indiana to back up that message in a campaign. “The more it becomes about deficit reduction, the better he does,” said one GOP Insider. Even Daniels’ serious demeanor is considered a positive. “Increasingly seen as the anti-Obama — no flash and slogans, but real leadership and a plan,” swooned another Republican.
Pawlenty was rated equally well by GOP Insiders who have been impressed by his disciplined courtship of the party faithful in the early caucus and primary states. Pawlenty is also viewed as a candidate who is acceptable to a broad range of Republicans and has relatively little political baggage. “[He] continues to methodically define himself as the mainstream conservative Republican who can appeal to traditional and new Republican activists,” said one GOP Insider. “Daniels may not run because of family, Barbour has proven surprisingly tone deaf, Gingrich has failed to turn around the marital issue, Palin excites her core group and is unacceptable to everyone else, Romney-care has become the mark of death for Romney,” noted another GOP Insider. “It looks more and more as though everyone has a fatal weakness, other than Pawlenty.”
Democrats generally concurred and saw Daniels as an “adult” and Pawlenty as “organized.”
Agreed.
As the GOP primary season heats up, voters will be looking for someone new – not Mitt Romney and not Newt Gingrich.
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (if he runs), former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (if he runs) would fit the bill.
Note: The “Insiders” are NOT too high on Sarah Palin.
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Video: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – The Choice
Governor Chris Christie web video. “The Choice”. March 7, 2011.So, tell me Governor Christie is releasing the video to Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post and he is NOT thinking about running for the Presidency?
In other words, he gave the legislature a choice: If the legislature actually passes the health-benefit reform proposal that Christie unveiled in September, they can double the property tax rebate for New Jersey taxpayers.
This has been Christie’s pattern to date: Make a compelling conservative policy proposal, put the ball in the Democrats’ court, use his rock star status and communication skills to turn up the heat and force the Democrats to, in his words, “make a choice.” It was an effective approach in passing his first budget.
But is this only about his budget? For those who are thinking maybe, just maybe, there might be more to his video productions than just New Jersey politics, his latest video will only fuel those suspicious — and give hope to near-desperate Republicans looking the an impressive 2012 presidential candidate. It is this type of impressive media imaging that made Christie a GOP favorite, and might, if he wins another round with the state legislature, increase the pleas for him to throw his hat into the 2012 presidential ring. And if he succeeds in pushing through his agenda, it will be increasingly hard to believe, as he has said to put off those urging his nomination, that he isn’t “ready” to be president. If not him, who? If not 2012, when?
You know, Chris Christie has only been the New Jersey Governor for a year but was the New Jersey United States Attorney for over six years. As an attorney and POL he has plenty of executive experience – certainly more than Senator Obama when he won the Presidency.
It might be time to strike, Governor, when the iron is hot.