Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has released its target list for 2012.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has its eyes on five key races that could pave the way for the GOP to take the majority in the upper chamber in 2012.

NRSC Executive Director Ron Jesmer said in an interview with CNN published Wednesday that the committee believes there is “fertile ground” for Republicans gains in Montana, Virginia, Nebraksa, Florida and North Dakota.

Jesmer said that centrist Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is in “serious trouble and kind of in a league of his own,” and that Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) also “is in a lot of trouble.”

“There are other states where depending on if one candidate runs, there could be some other good challenges,” he added.

The official’s comments provide an early preview to the GOP’s strategy heading into the 2012 Senate campaign, when the party is expected to make gains on the Democrats and take the majority.

Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota were won by 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain. Florida and Virginia flipped from red to blue two years ago, but some see the states tilting back to the GOP after the party picked up a number of House seats in each state. 

Barring any GOP blow up in the next year, I see a relatively easy time for the GOP to take control of the Senate in 2012 – or at least come within a few seats, but have an in effect operating majority.

Ben Nelson in Nebraska is toast as are North Dakota’s Kent Conrad and Montana’s Jon Tester.

Former Virginia Senator George Allen has a good chance to best the irascible and weird Jim Webb (if he runs).

It will be good Dem Senate hunting for the GOP in 2012.

Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.

Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:

Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.

Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:

The first pundit map is out for the 2102 Presidential race.

As we begin turning our attention to the 2012 presidential contest, we debut our initial presidential battleground map. Note: This is based on where we believe things will be a year from now, with the GOP candidates headed into home stretch in IA. It essentially combines what we know from ’04, ’06, ’08 and ’10, and factors it ALL in. Here’s another way to look at this: The lean Dem states are winnable by a Republican if things break, say, 53%-47% nationally for the nominee. And the lean GOP states are winnable by a Democrat if things break, well, 53%-47% nationally for the president. And you can guarantee BOTH parties will play in every lean and toss-up state so the BIG battleground for 2012 begins with 17 states. We fully expect a David Plouffe to attempt to argue GA and AZ should be in lean. And we expect a GOP strategist to argue they can put one EV in ME and, say, OR in play. But here you go…

Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI
Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
DC Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

Of course, this depends entirely on the economy and it will be interesting to revisit this in about a year. But, as of today, I would say the key battleground states will be:

• Ohio – 20 (electoral votes)
• Virginia – 13
• Colorado – 9
• Florida -27
• Nevada – 5
• Wisconsin -10
• New Hampshire – 4
• Indiana – 11
• North Carolina – 15

Nate Silver makes some interesting observations about GOTV, ground operations for Obama Vs. the GOP in 2012.

On the surface, this looks like horrible news for Democrats: the enthusiasm gap was the largest in precisely those states that a Democrat (or a Republican for that matter) needs to win the Presidency.

But there is something else to keep in mind. Mr. Obama’s campaign had a terris ific turnout operation, and — like any good turnout operation — it was concentrated in swing states. Mr. McCain’s campaign, by contrast, de-emphasized its “ground game” (a mistake that Karl Rove and George W. Bush would never have made), hoping to nationalize the election and win on the basis of television commercials.

What we’re probably seeing, then, is the “hangover” from the Mr. Obama’s turnout efforts in 2008. In states like Ohio and New Hampshire and Indiana, where Democrats registered tons of new voters and made sure that all of them got to the polls, a lot of them didn’t participate this time around. In other states, the electorate wasn’t much different and the people who were voting this year strongly resembled those who voted in 2010 — although Republicans still did better because the preferences of independent voters shifted toward them.

This sort of phenomenon is actually quite typical. In general, the bigger a President’s coattails, the more his party tends to suffer at the next midterm.

The key question for 2012 is whether those new voters will re-enter the electorate when Mr. Obama is on the ballot again. If so, Democrats should be in reasonably good shape — and they’ll also win back quite a few of the House seats that they lost in these states.

If not, however — or if Republicans are able to build a get-out-the-vote effort that is the equal of Mr. Obama’s — we could be up very late into the evening counting votes on Nov. 6, 2012.

This is a role where The Tea Party Movement can help supply the volunteers in key battleground states.

Time to organize. The data is there.

Looking at the map above, Republicans although unsuccessful in taking the majority of Senate seats on tuesday show increasingly bright prospects for the 2012 election cycle.

Welcome to the 2012 election cycle. The three most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012 are probably Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jon Tester of Montana. Republicans also may target Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Jim Webb of Virginia, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin. Retirement watch: Dianne Feinstein of California (age in 2012: 79), Daniel Akaka of Hawaii (88), Nelson of Nebraska (71), and Kohl (77).

Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Montana, Michigan: Those are all anti-Obama/Republican states.

Also, Republican Dick Lugar of Indiana will be 80 years old and may retire – calling GOP Rep. Mike Pence?

The above mentioned Democratic Senators will be under intense scrutiny by The Tea Party and will be targeted for replacement. Early recruitment of the best conservative candidates is essential for success and should begin today.

But, conservative propsects to remold the Senate majority and replace Democrat Senator Harry Reid as leader look promising.