Though the vast majority of Americans say they would vote for their party’s nominee for president in 2012 if that person happens to be a Mormon, 22% say they would not, a figure largely unchanged since 1967.
The question is mainly relevant to the Republican and independent vote in 2012, given that the current Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney, is an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, commonly known as the Mormon church, and that another Mormon, former Utah Gov. and former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, may enter the race for the GOP nomination as early as next week.
The new Gallup poll, conducted June 9-12, finds nearly 20% of Republicans and independents saying they would not support a Mormon for president. That is slightly lower than the 27% of Democrats saying the same.
What are the demographics of this political bias?
So, it is mainly educational level – with the less educated saying they would not be willing to vote for a Mormon.
And, what about other voting preference bias?
Only gay/lesbian and an athiest President would be less preferred than a Mormon.
The stability in U.S. bias against voting for a Mormon presidential candidate contrasts markedly with steep declines in similar views toward several other groups over the past half-century, including blacks, women, Catholics, and Jews. The last time as many as 22% of Americans said they would not vote for any of these groups (the same level opposed to voting for a Mormon today) was 1959 for Catholics, 1961 for Jews, 1971 for blacks, and 1975 for women. As noted, opposition to voting for each of these has since tapered off to single digits.
Still, it is significant that in 1959, the year before John F. Kennedy won election as the nation’s first Catholic president, 25% of Americans — including 22% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans, and 18% of independents — said they would not vote for a Catholic. Public opposition fell to 21% by May 1960 and to 13% by August 1961.
So, what does this all mean?
Republican Presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman who are both Mormon face additional obstacles to the GOP Presidential nomination because of religious bias against their candidaacies. But, like President John Kennedy will either of them be able to persuade voters that their biases are unwarranted?
Perhaps.
In the early primary states of Iowa and South Carolina, there are very active Evangelical Christians who hold the Mormon or Latter Day Saint’s Church with disdain. Many of these voters will NOT be voting for either Romney or Huntsman. In a very divided early primary GOP field this would likely mean a loss, delivering momentum to other candidates. Will this be enough to derail Romney who is way ahead in the early state of New Hampshire?
I guess we will see?
And, it really depends upon who enters the GOP primary field and how many survive to campaign in Florida and the Super Tuesday states.
Americans’ reluctance to support a Mormon for president has held close to the 20% level since Gallup first measured this in 1967, and long after historical biases against voting for blacks, Catholics, Jews, and women have dwindled.
Currently, 18% of Republicans say they would not vote for their party’s nominee if that person happened to be Mormon. This may be less troubling for Romney in the GOP primaries, where the vote could be highly fractured anyway, than in the general election, where — should he win the Republican nomination — he would need nearly complete support from Republicans to be competitive with President Obama. However, Kennedy’s success in overcoming a similar challenge in 1960 relating to his Catholic faith may give hope to Romney and his supporters about his electability in 2012.
Not endorsed by or affiliated with Tim Pawlenty or anyone from his campaign. Produced by SerumVerum. Music by Diego Massanti, Argentina – Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
This Tuesday, the conservative blog Verum Serum posted a devastating fake-Huntsman ad detailing the former Utah governor’s support for cap and trade, health care as a right, and Obama’s stimulus.
Someone isn’t happy with Verum Serum’s handy work. Today, some one calling themselves “SerumVerum” has posted a YouTube that is an almost frame-for-frame remake of the Huntsman ad, but this time the target is former-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.
An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.
But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin. GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:
Romney 19%
Palin 15%
Paul 13%
Cain 11%
Gingrich 11%
Bachmann 7%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 3%
Santorum 2%
Johnson 2%
Roemer 1%
Someone else (vol.) 3%
None/ No one (vol.) 6%
No opinion 2%
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:
Romney 21%
Paul 15%
Cain 13%
Gingrich 12%
Bachmann 9%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 3%
Santorum 3%
Johnson 2%
Roemer 1%
Someone else (vol.) 5%
None/ No one (vol.) 9%
No opinion 2%
This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.
Former U.S. Ambassador to China and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman applauds at the commencement ceremony at the University of South Carolina on Saturday, May 7 2011 in Columbia, S.C.
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman will base his presidential campaign in Orlando, Florida, if he enters the race, an aide to Huntsman confirmed to CBS News.
The Huntsman campaign-in-waiting sees Florida as a key state in deciding the Republican presidential nominee – it’s where John McCain effectively won the nomination in 2008 – as well as in the general election, where it is expected to be a key swing state. In addition, the GOP nominating convention will be held in Tampa.
Huntsman’s wife Mary Kaye Huntsman grew up in Orlando, and the aide noted that she still has family and friends in the area.
Some are saying that the socially moderate Republican Huntsman cannot compete in socially conservative Iowa and South Carolina. Moreover, Huntsman may very well concede Nevada and New Hampshire (to a lesser degree) because of the strength of fellow Mormon Mitt Romney. Hence the same strategy that was disastrous for Rudy Giuliani in 2008.
Planting a flag like that in Florida will inevitably bring comparisons (first!) to Rudy Giuliani’s late strategy, which was more an adjustment to early state weakness than a grand plan, and which didn’t work. Whatever groundwork one can lay thinly across a huge place like Florida is in danger of being washed away by the wave coming out of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
But Huntsman’s stand there (and he’s also playing aggressively in New Hampshire and South Carolina) seems to anticipate the same unusual campaign that Romney is planning for, one that’s more about weakness than strength, in which Romney limps out of the early states wounded but breathing, and facing a rival who simply can’t keep up with his spending through the long march of the first half of 2008. Huntsman may also be able to spend a lot, if not Romney money, and seems also the bracing for a long march.
What is different this time is that Huntsman, unlike Giuliani, is planning 2012 as his first or a trial run for the Presidency. If lightening strikes and he wins the nomination (probably due to some blow up of Romney, Daniels and Pawlenty) great, if not plan for the future run. Florida is an important state, one in which television media will be in play. Florida will be just as important in 2016 and beyond as it is today.
And, who knows, if Huntsman does well enough, he could be picked as a Vice President candidate.
By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
No surprise here.
Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.
The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.
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