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Today, Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett, a former Ojai High School teacher and administrator will announce he will run for Congress next year. The Ventura County Star has the full story.

Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett has scheduled a speech at Patagonia headquarters at noon today at which he is expected to announce he will be a candidate for Congress next year.

Bennett, a Democrat, is scheduled to speak with employees of the renowned Ventura-based outdoor gear company, and sources close to the supervisor said this morning he will make his announcement at that time.

The announcement will end months of intense speculation as Bennett, who will be forced to end his service on the Board of Supervisors, has weighed the pros and cons of staking his political future on a run for the new 26th Congressional District seat.

He will join Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock and Westlake Village businessman David Cruz Thayne as announced Democratic candidates in the race, which is expected to be highly competitive and attract national attention as one of the nation’s key congressional battlegrounds in 2012.

No Republican has yet announced, as potential candidates await an announcement from Rep. Elton Gallegly of Simi Valley as to whether he will choose to seek a 14th term by running in that district.

Bennett will likely face off against either incumbent GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly or GOP California State Senator Tony Strickland.

My bet, although it is not the conventional wisdom, is that Gallegly will be running against Bennett come November 2012.

Here are the demographics of the 26th Congressional District:

As you recall, my GOP Congressman Elton Gallegly from Simi Valley was redistricted out of his current Congressional District 24 with the new census and by the work of the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission.

The CD boundaries exclude his home in Simi Valley which game the long time Representative options:

• Retire
• Run in the new CD 26 (mainly Ventura County based)
• Run in the new CD 25 which has another Republican incumbent, Rep. Buck McKeon.

Apparently, Elton has decided to run in CD-25 and run against a fellow Republican incumbent Congressman.

The Antelope Valley Press last week reported last week that Congressman Elton Gallegly is either planning on retiring or running in CD25 against fellow Republican Buck McKeon. “‘As near as I can pin him, down, he’s running against me,’ said McKeon, who said he met with Gallegly last week.” This is consistent with what I’m hearing from locals as Gallegly isn’t sold on running in the Ventura’s CD26.

This opens CD26 up for Republican candidates that have held back awaiting Gallegly’s decision. The most likely serious candidate is State Senator Tony Strickland.

Here is the poop on CA-25:

And, the demographics:

Third quarter fundraising reports are out and Rep. Elton Gallegly, my Congressman, reports over $823 K cash on hand.

• Contributions: $229,221
• Expenditures: $157,407
• Cash on Hand: $823,988
• Debt: $0

Here are possible candidates, who may indeed challenge the long-time Republican incumbent.

• Steve Bennett – Ventura County Supervisor (D), Ventura
• Richard Francis – Former Ventura City Councilman (D)
• David Pollock – Moorpark City councilman (D)
• David Cruz Thayne – Westlake Village Businessman, tennis coach

Here is the poop on the district:

Gallegly saw his home drawn into Buck McKeon’s district, but he has represented Ventura County for years. With the additional of Democratic coastal communities in Ventura County added to this district and a resurgence of Democrats in the county this district is very competitive. Gallegly has been rumored to be retiring and this district may just push him over the edge. Democrats have 6-point registration advantage, Obama won this district by 16-points, but Brown lost it by 1-point. GOP state Senator Tony Strickland is looking at running here, though the district is competitive, there are no term limits.

With this fundraising activity, Gallegly is not laying down or looking like a retirement is imminent. He is active in GOP circles in the district and is home most weekends. Elton would either have to live just outside the district or move a few miles to be within the CA-24 borders.

However, he is widely know throughout Ventura County, having represented most of the CA-24 for decades.

I look for Elton to run for re-election, barring any health problems. If he doesn’t, look for California State Senator Tony Strickland to enter the race.

I guess the poll is over or the Ventura County Star took the poll offline, but it is now down off of their main page. Remember I first mentioned the poll earlier this morning.

Can the results be any more clear?

The answer to the question as to whether Rep. Elton Gallegly should retire is NO: 54% No Vs. 36% Yes.

Now, it is not a huge sample and unscientific as well, but as the reader can see there is no groundswell to get rid of the long-time GOP Congressman.

Here is the poll as it appeared this morning on the Ventura County Star home page:

There has been speculation that Rep. Elton Gallegly (R- Simi Valley), my Congressman, would retire rather than run in the new Ventura County centric CA-26. I shot down the speculation here.

Today, the Ventura County Star is trying to embarrass the Congressman by asking the question as to whether he should retire or not. The poll is here on their main page about half way down.

Go here and vote AND vote NO!

It looks likely.

Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

I have known Rep. Elton Gallegly for almost 30 years. While I have not discussed his re-election propsects with him, I do know that he is doing campaign events and recently moved his Congressional office from Westlake Village to Camarillo.

I say Gallegly is running, despite the referendum (which I understand the campaign for which is NOT actively gathering signatures). There is NO groomed successor and Elton is quite aware that there would be a split in the Ventura County GOP, if he retires at this time. He does not want such a split to be his legacy.

Elton is also aware that Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman WILL run in CA-26, if Elton retires, since Sherman has represented some of the Congressional District previously. The GOP would be quite content to have Sherman and Howard Berman face off against each other in a San Fernando Valley centric Congressional District.

So, sorry to California State Senator Tony Strickland and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. If you want CA-26, you will have to beat Elton and his $800K bank roll.

Here is Timm Herdt’s analysis of the race.

Here are the demographics of the new CA-26 Congressional District.