Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Ventura County, Santa Barbara County and Los Angeles County Elections have updated their totals Friday for the California State Senate District 19 race.

With vote count updates released by Ventura, Santa Barbara and Los Angeles counties today, Republican Tony Strickland has taken a lead that, while not quite decisive, is certainly commanding. Strickland is now up 2,141 votes over Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson.

Jackson’s camp still believes it can make up 2,000 or more votes from the pool of about 15,000 provisional ballots, but Strickland’s lead may be now pressing the outside of the envelope of what Jackson can make up.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland has extended his lead to 2,141 votes versus 1,560 votes Wednesday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 70,098
• Tony Strickland: 56,744

Los Angeles County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 11,611
• Tony Strickland: 15,806

Ventura County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 107,783
• Tony Strickland: 119,083

Ok, Flap will go out on a small limb and call this race for Tony Strickland. It is extremely doubtful that there are sufficient votes in Santa Barbara County to deliver the election to Hannah-Beth Jackson.

State Senate District 19 is a safe GOP seat and even with the massive tidal wave of Democrat dominance this election, the GOP base turned out to support one of its own.

What does this mean for the Democrat dominated California Legislature?

The California Democrat Party is denied 2/3′rds dominance of the State Senate and should make for some interesting budgetary fireworks as Democrats and Republicans will have to work together to forge a balanced budget. The California GOP will be able to block new taxes and spending initiatives.

Moreover, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is guaranteed a veto-proof legislature.

Stay tuned……

Ventura County elections has updated their totals today for the California State Senate District 19 race. Santa Barbara and Los Angeles County as of 2 PM Friday have not updated today.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland has extended his lead to 2,027 votes versus 1,560 votes Wednesday.

Tony Strickland pulled ahead of Hannah-Beth Jackson by almost 500 more votes on Friday, giving him a lead of 2,027 in the race for California’s 19th District State Senate seat.

Ventura County officials counted another 8,933 ballots on Thursday and Friday, bringing the countywide total to 303,669 ballots. That leaves about 10 percent of the vote still uncounted. The remaining ballots are either absentee ballots there were turned in on Election Day, or provisional ballots.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 69,829
• Tony Strickland: 56,522

Los Angeles County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 11,322
• Tony Strickland: 15,356

Ventura County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 107,783
• Tony Strickland: 119,083

Flap is reticent to call this election because of the pending recount. But if Flap were Tony Strickland I would not be losing too much sleep over this race.

Stay tuned….

Ventura and Santa Barbara County Election Divisions updated their totals today for the California State Senate District 19. Los Angeles County did not report an update today.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland has extended his lead to 1,560 votes versus 540 votes yesterday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County (as of 4:32 PM today):

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 69,829
• Tony Strickland: 56,522

Ventura County (as of 1:46 PM today):

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 104,920
• Tony Strickland: 115,753

Los Angeles County (as of 4:49 PM yesterday)

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 11,322
• Tony Strickland: 15,356

The Ventura County Star reports that Ventura County elections this afternoon added another 14,394 ballots to the results of last week’s election.

Ventura County has now counted 294,736 ballots, or about 88 percent of the those cast. The remaining 41,000 or so are absentee ballots that were handed in at the last minute, or provisional ballots, cast by voters whose registration status couldn’t be clearly determined on Election Day.

Because election officials don’t know where the uncounted ballots were cast, it’s impossible to know just how many votes are left up for grabs in each race. The county plans to release more results on Friday, but the final tally won’t be known until next week at the earliest.

Flap would rather be ahead by 1,500 votes than behind if this is any solace to Tony Strickland.

Stay tuned as Flap has absolutely no idea where the ballots are coming from or when the remaining ballots (late absentee and provisional) will be finally counted.

But, Flap will update as information becomes available.

The lead comes from Ventura County mail-in ballots which were received after the time to process them before election day.

Republican Tony Strickland took an 840-vote lead over Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson Thursday in the oh-so-close balloting in the 19th Senate District, the first day of what could be a monthlong process to determine the winner of the most expensive political contest in Ventura County history.

Strickland emerged with a lead after Ventura County election officials counted 11,294 mail-in-ballots that hadn’t been received in time to process before Election Day. His 948-vote net gain allowed him to leapfrog ahead of Jackson, who led by 108 votes after election night.

The votes counted Thursday were exceptionally rich for Strickland. He was the choice on 58.6 percent of the new ballots counted, well above the percentage by which he carried Ventura County and also above the percentage he received of the mail-in ballots from the county that were tabulated on Election Day.

The lead may be short-lived since Santa Barbara County will release its mail-in ballots today. On the other hand, Strickland supporting Los Angeles County is liable to add to Strickland’s total.

Next, will be the fight for the provisional ballots and a possible state mandated audit.

Flap bets Strickland will win this race eventually but hang on because the lead may change a couple more times over the next few weeks.

Wow!

The election yesterday settled NOTHING (Jackson leads by 108 votes with thousands yet to be counted) in the California State Senate District 19 which includes portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star has the poop and the numbers.

• Elections officials have processed and counted mail-in ballots that were delivered in the mail through last Friday. All ballots that were delivered via mail on Saturday, Monday and yesterday have not been counted. To these, add all the mail-in ballots that were dropped off at voting precincts yesterday. Finally, add all provisional ballots that were cast. These are the votes that will now determine the outcome.
• Provisional ballots are cast by voters who showed up at the polls and, for some reason or another, weren’t on the rolls. Ventura County Clerk-Recorder Philip Schmit told me last night that there was an unusually high number of provisional ballots cast yesterday.

• The tallying of the outstanding ballots won’t begin until tomorrow or Friday at the earliest, Schmit said. The process could take two weeks.

• California law requires an automatic recount of 10 percent of the ballots in any contest in which the outcome is within half a percentage point. If the contest remains within that margin after the first 10 percent of ballots are recounted, then another 10 percent are recounted, and so on.

Ventura County is where Tony Strickland is strong and many GOP voters vote by mail.

Stay tuned but Flap thinks this race albeit tight today will ultimately go to Republican Tony Strickland.

Santa Barbara’s largest circulation newspaper has endorsed former California Assemblyman Tony Strickland for California State Senate.

Opinion: Tony Strickland for state Senate

October 28, 2008 12:00 AM

The right choice to represent the state Senate’s 19th District couldn’t be more clear.

Do you want a candidate known for extreme partisan politics — one who’s distorted her resume, alienated many Santa Barbarans and plotted to hold the state’s budget hostage for political gain?

Or do you want a stable hand in Sacramento during this time of economic uncertainty?

As Senate candidate Tony Strickland has noted:

“Our financial markets are unstable and our economy is in shambles. Californians are frustrated, suspicious and angry because they feel deceived by partisan politicians who offer no solutions. They are worried about losing their retirement savings, the equity they have in their homes and, in some cases, their jobs.”

We have faith that Mr. Strickland will do his best to hold the line against tax hikes and fee increases that your family can’t afford. Too many state lawmakers are out of touch with the challenges facing California households. Their way of dealing with the state’s budget problem consists of either trying to find new ways to take money from you, or papering it over and pushing it off to future generations.

Mr. Strickland says, “Let me fight for you.”

If one looks at the record of his opponent, her motto might as well be “let me fight against you.”

Vote for Tony Strickland on Nov. 4.