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share save 120 16 Jeb Bush 2016: Is There Any Doubt?

Jeb Bush and Romney Jeb Bush 2016: Is There Any Doubt?

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is joined by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (L) and U.S. Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) (R) onboard his campaign plane Reuters Photo

Looks like the 2016 Presidential field is already set.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush in a rematch of the Bush Vs. Clinton clan Presidential fight.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush met Monday with a group of his former staffers at the J. W. Marriott hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue, just steps from the White House. Bush, a potential 2016 presidential contender, spent an hour in the hotel’s Cannon room, reminiscing and entertaining questions about his political future.

In an interview with NRO, Bush did not rule out a presidential run. “I am here to catch up with folks and promote education reform,” he said, smiling.

When asked again whether he will issue a Sherman-type statement about his future, Bush remained coy. “We have an alumni group that I like keeping in touch with,” he said. “I’m here to focus on educational reform, and that’s what I’m going to tell people.”

Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s campaign pollster, among other GOP operatives, was at the meeting.

Here we go!

So, should we speculate as to Jeb’s Vice Presidential running mate?

Condoleezza Rice – without a doubt.

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share save 120 16 President 2016: Insiders Say Bush, Rubio or Christie

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio President 2016: Insiders Say Bush, Rubio or Christie

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio

The National Journal has one of its Political Insiders polls up and this time it is the Presidential race in 2016.

GOP insiders:

  • Marco Rubio 40%
  • Jeb Bush 27%
  • Paul Ryan 9%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%

Democratic insiders:

  • Jeb Bush 47%
  • Chris Christie 28%,
  • Marco Rubio 13%

And, we all know that if Hillary Clinton wants the Democratic nomination that she will be the nominee.

What do I envision?

A Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush race.

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share save 120 16 President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
Jeb Bush President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator

Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami

You knew it was going to start.

The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.

A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

“He’d be too damaged,” he said.  “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

What about Rick Santorum?

“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.

And, who would the new candidate be?

Jeb Bush, said this Senator.

I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.

share save 120 16 President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
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share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses
Newt Poll Lead Collapses President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

After enjoying 14- to 15-percentage-point leads over Mitt Romney in early December, Newt Gingrich is now statistically tied with Romney in national Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination: 26% for Gingrich vs. 24% for Romney. This follows a steady decline in support for Gingrich in the past 10 days.

The latest findings are from Dec. 13-18 Gallup Daily tracking, based on 1,177 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Gallup initiated Daily tracking of the Republican presidential trial heat on Dec. 1, and reports the results in continuous five-day rolling averages.

No single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s 11-point decline — from 37% to 26% — over the past 10 days. Rather, Gallup polling finds slight increases in support for the six remaining major candidates in the race. Also, the percentage of Republicans favoring none of the candidates or who are unsure has risen by three points, from 14% to 17%.

Twenty-four percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now favor Romney for the nomination. This is up just slightly from the 22% to 23% level seen for much of the first two weeks of December. Support for Ron Paul is now 11%, up from 8% to 9% earlier in the month — marking the first time his support has been above 10% since mid-September. At that time, a Gallup poll of all Republicans/Republican-leaning independents put his support at 13%.

The GOP Establishment “pile on” against Newt Gingrich has been profound and frequent. Gingrich who has little campaign cash and/or organization to respond to the attacks both in the free media and “on air” has had as meteoric a rise as has been his collapse.  Gingrich has wilted under all of the attacks. Here is the graph:

Gallup Gingrich Collapse President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses

It seems the GOP voters are “settling” now for Mitt Romney or are giving other candidates a second look.

I maintain that there is still time for a third candidate to arise from the ash pile of former GOP Poll leaders. Today’s hunch is Jeb Bush who, today, has a piece in the Wall Street Journal.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
  • Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
  • Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
  • Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
  • Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
  • Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
  • Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
  • Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
  • Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
  • Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
  • Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
  • Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
  • Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%

GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?

  • Romney – 21%
  • Palin – 15%
  • Cain – 15%
  • Gingrich -12%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Ron Paul – 8%
  • Jon Huntsman – 0%

If Sarah Palin does not run then?

  • Romney – 26%
  • Cain – 16%
  • Gingrich – 15%
  • Bachmann – 14%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Paul – 11%
  • Huntsman – 1%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%

Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.

Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:

iowa ppp poll President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%

So, what does this all mean?

There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?

Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.

The entire poll is here.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
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