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He can read the polls too.

Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”

This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.

My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.

After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.


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President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

According to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.
If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.

Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.

Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.

26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.

Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.

Except Jeb is not running…..

But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?


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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

It’s starting – the mainstream GOP abandoning Mitt Romney and finding another horse.
Jeb Bush, brother of one former president and son of another, isn’t going to seek the White House for himself next year, he says, but he likes what he’s seen so far from Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Daniels, in his second term, is among a slew of Republicans considering a presidential campaign next year.

“Mitch is the only one who sees the stark [economic] perils and will offer real, detailed proposals,” Bush told Jacksonville business leaders, according to the Florida Times-Union.

“He would be the anti-Obama, at least socially,” Bush said in the newspaper’s account of a private gathering. “He is not good on a teleprompter, but if my theory is right that would work well for him.” Daniels, a Midwesterner with an understated sense of humor, also told the conservatives in Washington the next president will have to consider revamping entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Jeb Bush’s good will stopped far short of any endorsement for Daniels, who first must decide whether he is going to take the plunge in 2012.

Mitch Daniels is not only the anti-Obama but also the anti-Sarah Pain and anti-Mitt Romney.

Mitch is recovering in Indianapolis from rotator cuff surgery yesterday but he has definitley NOT ruled out a run for the White House.

Stay tuned……


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Democrat Florida U.S. Senator Bill Nelson

This is a likely pick-up seat for the GOP in 2012.
Florida Sen. Bill Nelson falls short of the 50 percent mark against five potential Republican opponents, according to a poll commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

The survey, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows former Gov. Jeb Bush as the most powerful Republican challenger for Nelson. Bush leads the senator by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent.

But Bush is not considered likely to run, and the polling memo notes that a challenge from the former governor is a “bullet [Nelson] will likely get to dodge.”

That means the Democrat will face off against a Republican who lacks Bush’s high profile and statewide popularity, such as Rep. Connie Mack, former Sen. George LeMieux, state Senate President Mike Haridopolos or former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Nelson fared better against all four of those candidates in the Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll, though he failed to win a majority of the vote in any match-up.

The closest race would be between Nelson and Mack, whose father – Connie Mack III – Nelson replaced in the Senate. Nelson would have just a 5-point advantage over Mack, leading 45 percent to 40 percent.

Against LeMieux, Nelson’s lead widens to 14 points — he’s ahead 49 percent to 35 percent. Nelson has a 23-point lead over Haridopolo (48 percent to 25 percent), and a 22-point lead over Hasner (46 percent to 22 percent).

The poll was taken from Feb. 9-10 and tested 625 registered voters.

If former Florida Governor Jewb Bush EVER wanted to re-enter the political arena, this is the race. It is Jeb’s for the taking.

If Jeb declines, then I would consider his political career over.


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The latest Fox News Poll is out and President Obama is doing well against all GOP contenders (Pdf).

  • 48% Obama Vs. 41% Romney (41% Vs. 40%, September 2010)
  • 49% Obama Vs. 41% Huckabee (43% Vs. 40%)
  • 56% Obama Vs. 35% Palin (48% Vs. 35%)
  • 55% Obama Vs. 35% Gingrich (53% Vs. 29%, January 2010)
  • 54% Obama Vs. 34% J. Bush (45% Vs 37%, September 2010)

The current crop of GOP Presidential hopefuls have been making no inroads into defeating President Obama. It may indeed be time for the Republican Party to look to the future and nominate some new and different candidates.

Fox News / Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

2/7-9/11; 911 registered voters, 3% margin of error

Mode: Live telephone interviews


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