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According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
  • Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
  • Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
  • Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
  • Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
  • Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
  • Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
  • Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
  • Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
  • Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
  • Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
  • Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
  • Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%

GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?

  • Romney – 21%
  • Palin – 15%
  • Cain – 15%
  • Gingrich -12%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Ron Paul – 8%
  • Jon Huntsman – 0%

If Sarah Palin does not run then?

  • Romney – 26%
  • Cain – 16%
  • Gingrich – 15%
  • Bachmann – 14%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Paul – 11%
  • Huntsman – 1%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%

Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.

Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:

So, what does this all mean?

There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?

Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.

The entire poll is here.

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He can read the polls too.

Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”

This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.

My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.

After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.

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President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

According to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.
If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.

Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.

Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.

26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.

Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.

Except Jeb is not running…..

But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?

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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

It’s starting – the mainstream GOP abandoning Mitt Romney and finding another horse.
Jeb Bush, brother of one former president and son of another, isn’t going to seek the White House for himself next year, he says, but he likes what he’s seen so far from Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Daniels, in his second term, is among a slew of Republicans considering a presidential campaign next year.

“Mitch is the only one who sees the stark [economic] perils and will offer real, detailed proposals,” Bush told Jacksonville business leaders, according to the Florida Times-Union.

“He would be the anti-Obama, at least socially,” Bush said in the newspaper’s account of a private gathering. “He is not good on a teleprompter, but if my theory is right that would work well for him.” Daniels, a Midwesterner with an understated sense of humor, also told the conservatives in Washington the next president will have to consider revamping entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Jeb Bush’s good will stopped far short of any endorsement for Daniels, who first must decide whether he is going to take the plunge in 2012.

Mitch Daniels is not only the anti-Obama but also the anti-Sarah Pain and anti-Mitt Romney.

Mitch is recovering in Indianapolis from rotator cuff surgery yesterday but he has definitley NOT ruled out a run for the White House.

Stay tuned……


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