GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani has new roots in New Hampshire, literally. As you can see, he and his wife, Judith, water the sapling given to them by backers Joseph and Augusta Petrone. They’re longtime Bushies who live on a prominent Dublin, N.H., property where former President Taft and Mark Twain planted trees. The couple say they won a promise from Rudy and Judith: to return and plant it if he wins the GOP nomination or presidency.

Thanks to US News for the catch.

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Republican presidential hopeful, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, center, shakes hands with Lauren Weinberger as her mother Paula Weinberger watches during a campaign stop at Alicia’s Diner in Pelham, N.H., Thursday, Aug. 16, 2007.

From Race42008:

Rasmussen Reports Republican Florida Primary

Giuliani – 30% (22)
Thompson – 17% (21)
Romney – 15% (13)
McCain – 7% (13)
Huckabee – 5% (less than 1%)

Survey was conducted August 13 of 689 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 4%. Numbers in parentheses are from Rasmussen’s July poll.

The Florida and Super Duper Tuesday national campaign strategy continues on track. Fred Thompson is starting to fade and Romney is doubled up.

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In Florida, Rudy opens up a 16 point lead over Fred Thompson and 24 points over Mitt Romney.

The GOP NUTS:

1. Rudy Giuliani 34%
2. Fred Thompson 18%
3. Mitt Romney 10%
4. John McCain 8%
5. Newt Gingrich 3%
6. Tom Tancredo 3%
7. Mike Huckabee 3%
8. Ron Paul 2%
9. Sam Brownback 1%
10. Tommy Thompson 1%*
11. Duncan Hunter 1%
12. Undecided 16%

Rudy is up from the previous Strategic Vision Poll:

• Rudy – 30% (32%)
• Thompson – 24% (10%)
• McCain – 11% (20%)
• Romney – 8% (5%)
• Gingrich – 4% (7%)

The () is the previous poll. 

And Fred Thompson is down with Mitt Romney marginally up.

Flap still predicts Florida will be a battleground state which Rudy will use to catapult himself to the final Super Tuesday victory and the nomination.

Stay tuned……..

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Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani reaches for 3-month-old Ethan Gaines, son of Coffee Depot owners Geof and Evelyn Gaines, during a stop Tuesday at Coffee Depot in Riverside.

When the California GOP a few years ago changed Republican Presidential convention delegate rules, they envisioned candidates campaigning in all or most of California’s numerous counties.

Who is the ONLY GOP candidate traveling from San Francisco to Fresno to Riverside and San Diego – Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Yesterday, the Giuliani campaign rolled into the Inland Empire.

During a brief stop Tuesday morning at Riverside’s Coffee Depot, Republican presidential contender Rudy Giuliani visited with patrons and criticized Democratic rivals, saying they fail to recognize the threat of terrorism.

In between kissing babies and sipping iced coffee, the former New York mayor positioned himself as the candidate to fight terrorism.

Rudy Giuliani currently is the front runner in Inland Empire and California state polls.

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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Continues Commanding Double Digit Lead in Latest Washington Post – ABC News National GOP Presidential Poll 

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Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues his commanding double digit lead in the latest Washington Post – ABC News National GOP Presidential Poll.

The GOP NUTS:

Let’s look at the state of the race:

• Rudy leads in fundraising and cash on hand
• Rudy leads and has led most if not all national GOP polls for months
• Rudy has been actively campaigning in most early primary and February 5 Super Tuesday states, including California.
• Rudy leads in most(spelled majority) state primary polls without ANY advertising.
• John McCain is broke and scaled back his campaign to three early primary states.
• John McCain fired his campaign staff and is reorganizing his campaign – he vows he will not quit.  However, Newt gingrich predicts he will quit the race after he receives his federal election matching funds.
• Fred Thompson has not even announced his candidacy and fired his campaign manager today because of a fight with his wife.
• Fred Thompson will have ONLY three months to fundraise and campaign before the first primary elections.
• Mitt Romney fails to poll in double digits nationally and trails badly in Super Tuesday state polls – often polling in single digits.
• Mitt Romney barely leads Rudy in New Hampshire polls where he has been on television for many weeks.

Rudy is the inevitable GOP Presidential nominee.

End of story.

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Republican presidential hopeful and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani waves after addressing the 2007 South Carolina Fire-Rescue Convention Friday, July 20, 2007, at the Myrtle Beach Convention Center in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Campaign will launch three radio ads in New Hampshire and Iowa tomorrow:

“Out of Control”:

GIULIANI: Every promise I made running as Mayor of New York City they said couldn’t be done… said I couldn’t cut crime… New York City was the crime capital of the America… can’t be done.

VOICE OVER: Under Rudy Giuliani’s leadership crime in New York City dropped 56%.

GIULIANI New York City was the welfare capital of America… 1.1 million people on welfare. You can’t cut welfare… can’t be done.

VOICE OVER: Welfare rolls went down by a staggering 58%.

GIULIANI: They said we couldn’t reduce taxes in New York. They said you couldn’t get control of spending. That’s impossible.

VOICE OVER: Rudy Giuliani turned a 2.3 billion dollar deficit into a multi-billion dollar surplus and cut or eliminated 23 taxes.

GIULIANI: My focus when I ran for Mayor of New York City was on the future, and it will be in this campaign. Leadership is about what we can do, what we can accomplish, never taking “No” for an answer. This is all about how America can grow, how America can get stronger, how America can be the country that realizes all the potential we know we have.

VOICE OVER: Paid for by Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee Incorporated.

Visit joinrudy2008.com

GIULIANI: I’m Rudy Giuliani and I approve this message

The audio for Out of control is here.

“Will Do:”

VOICE OVER: Here is Rudy Giuliani talking about his 12 Commitments to the American People; including his commitment to restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.

GIULIANI: This is what I did in New York City. I restored fiscal discipline and I held spending in New York City, a city that was out of control in spending, to less then the rate of inflation and the growth of the population.

VOICE OVER: Leading George Will to say Rudy Giuliani’s eight years as Mayor were “the most successful episode of conservative governance in this country in the last 50 years.”

GIULIANI: We will require agency heads to present 5 to up to as much as 20% reductions in their annual budget. It’s the only way to reduce spending. And we’ll make sure we do away with earmarks in which anonymous spending is done in the billions and billions and billions of dollars. I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.

VOICE OVER: To find out more about all twelve of Rudy Giuliani’s Commitments to the American People visit joinrudy2008.com. Paid for by Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee Incorporated.

GIULIANI: I am Rudy Giuliani, and I approve this message.

The audio for Will Do is here.

“Garbage Can:”

VOICE OVER: Here’s Rudy Giuliani, talking about his 12 Commitments to the American People,

including his commitment to cut taxes and reform the tax code.

GIULIANI: I believe that you collect more money from lower taxes then you collect from higher taxes. I believe in it because I saw it work.

I was given a report, shortly after I was Mayor-Elect, and the report was all of the things that should be done to take New York City out of the deficit. The biggest ones were raise taxes. They asked me what I was going to do with the report, and I said I’m going to throw it in the garbage. It doesn’t make any sense. It’s exactly why we are in the trouble we are in, and then I went ahead and reduced taxes. I reduced the rate for income tax by about 23-24 percent. The revenues from the income tax went up 40 percent. That’s what we have to do. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code because I realize that that’s how you stimulate an economy.

VOICE OVER: Paid for by Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee Incorporated.

Visit joinrudy2008.com

GIULIANI: I’m Rudy Giuliani and I approve this message.

The audio for Garbage Can is here.

***********

Mitt Romney currently leads the polls in both of these states, while Hizzoner leads in most of the others. Romney has been “on air” with television commercials for some time. Will this cheaper media buy give Rudy the BUMP he desires in these two early states?

Stay tuned……

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Florida Quinnipiac Poll:

Rudy – 30%

Thompson – 18%

McCain – 10%

Romney – 9%

Don’t Know – 19%

McCain and Romney are fading and Fred Thompson has not announced nor is he catching fire.

This trend has appeared first in  South Carolina and now Florida.

Is Rudy the inevitable GOP nominee?

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Michael Duhaime, Rudy Giuliani for President Camapign Manager in the “Spin Room” at the Reagan Presidential Library Debate, May 3, 2007

Heads Up:

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced that Michael DuHaime, Campaign Manager, and Anne Dunsmore, Deputy Campaign Manager for Finance, will hold a conference call today with the media to discuss the campaign’s second quarter fundraising.

The call will start at 11 AM Eastern and Flap will be there.

Maria Comella thanks everyone for attending the call

Mike Duhaime and Anne Dunsmore on the call

MD: Thanks Maria and thanks everybody for getting on the call this morning.

Just a couple of quick facts first: we have total now raised for the cycle in excess of 33 million dollars. We raised—as most people know–more than 17 million for this quarter—of that approximately 15 million for the primary election. Our total cash on hand combined is approximately 18 million dollars. Our total number of donors now is near 60,000 donors.

That’s a place where I feel we have tremendous room and ability to grow here. And we spent in the neighborhood of just over 11 million dollars—approximately 11.2 million dollars during this quarter. I just want to talk—really, I feel very good right now about the state of the race in terms of where we are. This is another very strong quarter for us. Obviously we’re optimistic about our momentum increasing right now and we’re seeing that all throughout the country.

The proof of that is really in the numbers. Not only in the finance numbers, but the polling numbers as well and now we’re seeing—especially in the finance numbers being first in finance catching up to the polling numbers where the Mayor has been first for a good portion of this year. We are the only campaign on the Republican side to not only maintain our pace from last quarter, but actually to increase our fundraising numbers from the first quarter to the second quarter. We’re in a very solid position right now as we move forward in terms of focusing on our fundraising efforts.

The Mayor is very much engaged with this—not only in fundraising, but also in going out into the states and campaigning very hard. Related to the 18 million dollars cash on hand, something I’m very proud of is that we have zero debt. I’m very proud of that. I think it’s very important that we respect the people who have given us money and have contributed their hard earned dollars to this campaign and that we are as frugal as possible with those dollars while using it wisely to make sure that we have the best campaign operation that we can have with the dollars that we have.

We’re running a very efficient and disciplined campaign, but at the same time we do continue to grow. Our campaign is now operating field operations in a dozen states. So I feel very good about that we’ve expanded our focus of operation beyond just the early primary states and into some of the other states that are going to be critical for this election. We feel very good about where we’re going right now, not only to win the primary obviously winning the money race, being ahead in many of the polls—we are the candidate, who obviously I think is best positioned to win the primary and I feel very good that we’re the only candidate that can win the general election.

I think we are—or at least the candidate best positioned to win the general election. There’s no doubt in my mind Rudy Giuliani can put in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington in the Republican column. He can certainly make states like New York, Illinois, California– very expensive states into very competitive states and ones that certainly the Mayor can win. I don’t believe that any other Republican can make that same claim. If you look at the national polls recently, we received nearly 30 percent or greater in the three major media polls released last week. Our average polling share—our ballot share in June public polling was 26 percent. We averaged a 7 point lead over our nearest opponent which was Senator Thompson, but we are ahead right now in key states, at least in polling, key states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Colorado, Oklahoma. And we’re first and second in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, West Virginia.

So we feel very, very good in terms of where we are right now. We’re positioned very well to win the primary. About 7 weeks ago we brought on—or nearly two months ago, we brought on Anne Dunsmore as a Deputy Campaign Manager in charge of finance. She has done a terrific job in terms of maximizing our finance operation, and continues to do that. It’s one of the reasons I feel as optimistic as I do for our potential for growth is bringing Anne on and the way she has organized our team so with that I’d like to turn it over to Anne for a few comments.

AD: Thanks Mike. Yes, it’s been an extraordinary period of time. I’m very proud of the team we have in place, both our volunteers and our staff in what we’ve been able to accomplish. This quarter was wonderful in the number of donors that we signed on board and then obviously ultimately reflected in the number of dollars that we raised.

We did out-raise our first quarter totals and we more than successfully maintained our first quarter pace. We were able to do it again thanks to a lot of hard work and an extraordinary number of dedicated folks on the ground and—as well as a very—an overwhelming response for Mayor Giuliani.

Our constant challenge is figuring out new ways to harness our abilities to match up with the energy and enthusiasm for the people out there willing to support our campaign. Our organization and structure is in place and I feel confident that we can meet the challenge of working with and harnessing the enthusiasm and support that’s out there. So, we’re pretty happy

Questions:

1. Ian Schwartz from IanSchwartz.com:

SCWARTZ: Hi, I was wanted to know what the reaction is to the surprise, or actually lack of surprise of John McCain’s failing quarter two numbers. What’s your reaction to that?

DUHAIME: Really, I mean, the most important thing for us is to focus on our campaign and make sure that we’re as well positioned as we can be as we look forward—and we look forward to what we need to do in the earlier states and beyond. And really, every campaign I think at this point is about positioning itself to make sure that come the fall each campaign is ready to do what it needs to do. So, really right now, our focus is really on our campaign and –go ahead, I’m sorry.

SCHWARTZ: No, I’m sorry to interrupt. Are you expecting him to drop out or I mean what do you expect because of these numbers?

DUHAIME: You know, that’s a question for Senator McCain’s campaign and again, not one that I can control or really have the opportunity to focus on. We’ll obviously deal with whatever other candidates decide to do in their campaign—that’s their business. And right now what’s important for us is that we feel like right now we raise the necessary resources to compete in the early states and also now to expand our operations in to many of the early states so we are ready to campaign vigorously and if the campaign field happens to change as we go forward then we’ll adjust and we’re going to be in the right position to adjust.
2. From Captain Ed of Captain’s Quarters:

MORRISSEY: Hi, good morning. I was just hoping that you could remind us what your Q1 numbers were and talk about the rate of fundraising—if I recall correctly, you guys we’re only really fundraising in February and March in Q1. Do you think that the rate of your fundraising has remained constant or improved or has it been a little slacker that it was in Q1?

DUHAIME: I feel like it’s improved, especially when you like at it—especially when you look at it kind of relatively as being the only Republican campaign to actually increase from quarter to quarter. I think everybody had issues potentially like we did in terms of starting up through January being a slower time, but I feel very good in terms of our pace and increasing. And we raised, you know, Maria you may want to read—Maria, do you have the number in front of you what we raised in the first quarter?

COMELLA: We’re looking at an estimated 16 million, but you’re looking at around 14 for primary dollars.

DUHAIME: Thanks.

3. From Brian Faughnan of the Weekly Standard:

FAUGHNAN: Yes, first off let me thank you for holding the call. And second a general question, perhaps not all specific to the Mayor’s campaign specifically, but a lot of attention has been given to the disparity in the fundraising numbers overall of the Republican candidates versus the Democratic candidates. Do you see anything in that or draw any lessons from Obama’s and Hillary’s and the rest of those who raised more than the GOP side?

DUHAIME: Well I really look at this… there’s two separate and distinct campaigns going on right now. There’s the Republican campaign and the Democratic campaign and neither really has anything to do with each other until you get much later into the campaign when you get into states that have open primaries and independents can vote. There’s really no interaction between our campaigns and their campaigns and there’s really no importance to the relative strength of fundraising on either side of the aisle. What’s important to us is obviously how we compare to others on the Republican side and that we have the resources we need to win the Republican nomination. Once we get through the primaries, I’m confident we’re going to have more than enough resources to win the primary election and more than enough resources to win the general election. You know, I don’t have the same amount of time to focus on what the Democrats are doing. I obviously read the articles and see the money they’ve raised, but really there’s two completely separate campaigns going on right now, and it’s important for us to make sure that we keep our eye on the distinct campaign that we’re involved in.

4. From Soren Dayton of Eyeon08.com:

DAYTON: Hi, I have two questions. The first is you said that you had about 60k donors. That strikes me as lower than both McCain and Romney. Can you just talk about that and maybe average contribution size—things like that. The other thing is, can you give the 12 states that you have staff in?

DUHAIME: To answer the second one, I’m not going to give the 12 states we have staff in at this point. The donor numbers in terms of where they are, that’s one of the reasons I have the most confidence in terms of our ability to grow. Tactically, our campaign has chosen to do fundraising a specific way for the first few quarters to get our numbers where they need to be in terms of our dollars raised. I feel very good as we look forward at some of the plans we have for the third and fourth quarter to expand our donor base and achieve the kind of growth in our base that we see that’s reflected both in the Mayor’s polling numbers and the initial fundraising numbers. I feel very good. It’s one of the reasons I’m as confident as I am that we’re going to grow rapidly as we go forward, because our donor number is limited and I know it can and will be much larger as we go forward.

**********

Rudy’s fundraising is far and above the best in the GOP candidate pool. He is running an efficient and lean campaign operation – saving his resources for television and direct mail advertising in key battle ground states.

Hizzoner’s Q3 numbers should continue the upward trend as the major institutional donors realize that he will be the GOP nominee.

Republican presidential hopeful former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, right, and Sen. David Vitter, R-La., visit the site of one of the levee breeches that caused severe flooding during Hurricane Katrina, in New Orleans, Saturday, June 30, 2007. Giuliani held a news conference at the 17th Street Canal. Work on the flood gates goes on in the background

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Republican presidential hopeful former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani points to the 17th Street Canal levee as he talks with Lakeview resident Kelly Alfortish during a brief visit to the Hurricane Katrina damaged areas in New Orleans, Saturday, June 30, 2007. Alfortish whose home was flooded during the storm and shared her story with Giuliani.

Romney, Giuliani report on fundraising

Republican Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign reported $17 million in contributions from April through June and $18 million in the bank for both the primary and general elections.

Mitt Romney’s campaign on Tuesday said the former Massachusetts governor had raised $14 million exclusively for the primary and had tapped his personal wealth for an extra $6.5 million.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitt Romney raised $14 million from April through June for his Republican presidential campaign and added an extra $6.5 million from his own personal wealth.

Romney’s fundraising fell short of his first quarter, when he raised $20.6 million and lent himself $2.35 million.

The GOP NUTS:

Romney:

— $14 million in primary contributions
— a $6.5 million loan from Romney
— a total of $43.9 million raised in the first six months (including Romney’s loans to his campaign)
— cash on hand is $12 million, which means that Team Romney has spent nearly $32 million dollars so far. Wow.

Rudy:

–$17 million in primary and general contributions

–Cash on hand is over $18 million for primary and general elections

— No campaign debt

Flap would like to see Rudy’s totals for the primary only but the fact remains he outraised or at least raised as much as Romney and did not burn through his funds like Mitt.

Rudy continues as the front-runner while Romney has burned funds with television commercials in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney remains in fourth place in national polling and in important California and Florida.

Cash on hand comparison:

Rudy – $18 million

Romney – $12 million with $9 million in outstanding debt = $3 million

McCain – $2 million

Fred Thompson – ?

What others are saying:

National Review GOP Money [Yuval Levin]

The cash-on-hand situation really tells us why Romney felt the need to pump such a significant loan from his own pocket into the campaign. With that loan, the campaign’s coffers contain almost exactly what they did at the end of the previous quarter in terms of cash-on-hand. Without it, his campaign would have looked to be spending significantly more than it was taking in (which it is, due in large measure to television ads that are airing where early voters are, but not where donors are).

Overall, the GOP funding figures paint a picture of a strong Giuliani campaign, and a decent but not great Romney effort, which is burning through money at a breakneck pace. McCain, though, looks like toast.

CBN – The Brody File: Giuliani vs. Romney: Fundraising Numbers Are In

I’m being told by sources close to Giuliani’s campaign that out of Giuliani’s $17 million – $15 million of that is for the Primary Election. $2 million is designated for the General Election. Romney’s $14 million is all Primary Election money.

But, at the end of the day, the story here is Giuliani. He continues to defy the odds. People want to write him off because as a Republican, his views are too liberal. Well, he’s been pretty clear and public with his views and so far, financially at least, he’s not taking a hit. He may not be getting donations from The Southern Baptists Firefighters Association (is there really a group like that?) but clearly, there seems to be an appetite for Giuliani out there.

His strength is in the ideological middle and his tough talk on terrorism and reputation as a crime fighting straight talking guy who gets things done plays well in certain Evangelical circles. Not to mention, these Evangelicals think he is the only Republican that can beat Hillary Clinton in the General Election.

It’s a long road to The White House but Giuliani is beginning to prove he has staying power. Will it last?

Others blogging:

Race42008

My Election Analysis

Hugh Hewitt and here.
Ryan Sager

Captain’s Quarters

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Survey USA California GOP Poll

CA GOP PRIMARY: Has Fred Thompson Hit The Ceiling?

Seven months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest re-stabilizes, with Rudolph Giuliani 13 points ahead of John McCain and Fred Thompson, who tie for 2nd place, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego.

Giuliani’s 13-point advantage today is identical to his lead 60 days ago, in SurveyUSA’s May 2007 tracking poll, and a slight increase from the 7-point advantage Giuliani had in June.

Fred Thompson, who went from 11 points in May to 21 points is June, has stopped climbing, and settles in at 19 points in July. Is this Thompson’s ceiling? Or has Thompson, whose official entry into the race may come at any moment, not yet begun to fight?

Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 9%, down ever-so-slightly from 12% in May and 11% in June.

Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is at the moment not a factor, at 6%.

Today, 9% of CA likely GOP voters prefer one of the other Republicans running, who include Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy maintains a double digit lead with support across California. Remember California’s delegates which are five times as many as Iowa are parceled out by winning each Congressional District in a winner take all format.

The Mayor is showing particular strength in the Central Valley and Bay Areas.

Also, in the expensive television media market, Hizzoner will have the funds to pound opposition candidates with ads.  The only other candidate who can possibly match Rudy is Mitt Romney who is polling only 9%.

Calfiornia looks like a winner for Giuliani.

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