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President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
- Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
- Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
- Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
- Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%
Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.
When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.
Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.
Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch:Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney Tied at 16%, Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 9%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Even as the Republican field for president really starts to take final shape, there truly is no frontrunner, perhaps more than ever before. And several longshot contenders are getting significant traction in this unclear environment, while others decline. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin share the lead at 16% in PPP’s latest national poll of Republican primary voters, with Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Herman Cain at 12%, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann at 9% each, and Jon Huntsman at 4%.
While her potential candidacy has received renewed speculation in the last week, if Palin does not make a bid, it would boost Romney to 20%, Gingrich and Bachmann to 13%, and Paul to 11%, with the other three running in place.
PPP surveyed 574 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from May 23rd to 25th .The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%
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Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here. -
President 2012 Video: Tim Pawlenty – No RINOS
Not endorsed by or affiliated with Tim Pawlenty or anyone from his campaign. Produced by SerumVerum. Music by Diego Massanti, Argentina – Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
Based on the Verum Serum Jon Huntsman is a RINO video, this one is quite good.
This Tuesday, the conservative blog Verum Serum posted a devastating fake-Huntsman ad detailing the former Utah governor’s support for cap and trade, health care as a right, and Obama’s stimulus.
Someone isn’t happy with Verum Serum’s handy work. Today, some one calling themselves “SerumVerum” has posted a YouTube that is an almost frame-for-frame remake of the Huntsman ad, but this time the target is former-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.
I say NO to Pawlenty and Huntsman anyway.
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Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2102 Poll Watch: Giuliani 16% Vs. Romney 15% Vs. Palin 13% Vs. Paul 12% Vs. Cain 10%
According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.
- Giuliani 16%
- Romney 15%
- Palin 13%
- Paul 12%
- Cain 10%
- Gingrich 8%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Huntsman 1%
- Johnson 1%
- Roemer *
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 5%
- No opinion
And, who would be your second choice?
- Romney 15%
- Giuliani 14%
- Gingrich 10%
- Bachmann 10%
- Palin 10%
- Paul 7%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Huntsman 6%
- Cain 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Karger *
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 4%
- None/ No one (vol.) 8%
- No opinion 2%
An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.
But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin.
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:- Romney 19%
- Palin 15%
- Paul 13%
- Cain 11%
- Gingrich 11%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 6%
- No opinion 2%
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:
- Romney 21%
- Paul 15%
- Cain 13%
- Gingrich 12%
- Bachmann 9%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 3%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 5%
- None/ No one (vol.) 9%
- No opinion 2%
This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.
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President 2012 Ohio GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Vs. Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Herman Cain 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Sarah Palin – 66% vs. 24%
- Mitt Romney – 55% Vs. 25%
- Newt Gingrich – 42% vs. 34%
GOP Primary Head to Head:
- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 16%
- Cain – 12%
- Gingrich – 12%
- Bachmann – 10%
- Paul – 9%
- Pawlenty – 5%
- Huntsman – 1%
- Someone else/not sure – 15%
The entire poll is here.
Romney’s ahead in Ohio because he has a broad lead with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative,’ getting 27% with Gingrich coming in second at 14%. He’s also ahead with moderates at 22% to Palin’s 18%. Voters falling into the ‘very conservative’ camp continue to be a problem for him though. His favorability with them is a +37 spread at 61/24. That puts him a whooping 33 points below Palin’s standing with that same group, which is a +70 spread at 83/13.
Palin leads the horse race with those voters at 20% with Michele Bachmann at 15%, and Romney tying Cain for third at 13%. Maybe voters on the far right will split their votes enough that their lack of support doesn’t cost Romney the nomination but for now they look like they could be a big problem.
Ohio is a key battleground state and one that the GOP desperately needs to win the general election in the Electoral College. Sarah Palin is showing some signs of a resurgence in the polling now that Mike Huckabee has left the race. I suspect votes for Hermain Cain would go to Palin once she officially declares her candidacy.
Tim Pawlenty is trailing badly and Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are looking more like an anti-Romney candidate (s).
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President 2012: Is Tim Pawlenty A Friend of Dentists?
Republican Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announces that he is running for President in Des Moines, Iowa, May 23, 2011
The legislative battle over what have come to be known as “midlevel providers” in Minnesota has come to a close.
What began as two distinct models of education and practice emerged as one with the state creating a new position—the dental therapist—who will provide care for underserved patient populations in the state.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty signed Senate File 2083 May 16, creating the dental therapist, a licensed provider with a bachelor’s degree in dental therapy who will work with Minnesota-licensed dentists to provide preventive dental services, restoration of primary and permanent teeth, extraction of primary teeth and select other dental treatments.
Governor Pawlenty signed the legislation and now will be held accountable. Pawlenty is not a fan of dentistry no matter how the American Dental Association or anyone else spins it. He could have vetoed the legislation.
Dental therapists or mid-level providers will fracture American dentistry into multiple tiers of care and help undermine private practice while increasing Big Government control of my profession.
Sorry, Tim. I will support and vote for someone else.
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President 2012: The 2012 GOP Presidential Field is Set?
Republican Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announces he is running for President in Des Moines, Iowa, May 23, 2011
High-level Republican leaders tell POLITICO that they now believe the top tier of the presidential field is set, and that no major donors or operatives will remain on the sidelines hoping a dream candidate will make a last-minute entry.
These leaders calculate that they are better off to accept the Mitch Daniels-less field as it is and not continue to waffle, letting President Barack Obama continue to build strength while the GOP dawdles.
“The waiting is over,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman and counselor to President George W. Bush. “Things are going to accelerate pretty quickly now.”
“You’re seeing everything you’re going to get,” said a Republican who has talked privately with the leading candidates.
The energy in the party, of course, is currently in the tea-party and social conservative wings—there’s support in those quarters for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), who is increasingly looking like a candidate, and Sarah Palin, whose plans are a mystery.
And a group of Iowa GOP donors is scheduled to travel to New Jersey at the end of the month to encourage Gov. Chris Christie to run.
But the GOP establishment is now convinced that Mitt Romney is the front-runner, and that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman have a narrow window to determine who will become the stronger alternative – the anti-Mitt in the GOP field.
It will be Mitt Romney versus Tim Pawlenty in one semi-final contests to face off against Michele Bachman or Sarah Palin. Romney is the most likely victor here with T-Paw or Mitt Daniels as the Vice President selection.
Two game changers would be Sarah Palin and Chris Christie but despite some overtures for him to run, I think he probably stays out.
But, this from Romney advisors is kind of strange. Sarah Palin is unpredictable and why antagonize the Mama Grizzly?
In an interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity last week, Palin said she was “still seriously considering it.”
Republicans officials have no idea what she’s planning, although they agree she would have tons to lose by entering a race that would cost her the mystique she has built up. And Romney advisers said her entry would help the former Massachusetts governor dramatically.
“The shock value would cause elected officials and party officials to rally around Mitt, because she’d scare the daylights out of them,” one official said. “And it would allow him to position himself very much in the middle of Republican, conservative thinking and avoid the fringe, and look more moderate for the general election.”
Bachmann would have the same effect, the advisers said. Either of them “gives Romney a bogeyman: ‘Stop this crazy woman.’”
Another top Republican said he relishes the idea of a Palin candidacy: “She’ll be defeated, and we’ll be done with her.”I think Sarah Palin would be able to defeat Michele Bachmann in Iowa and then South Carolina becomes the battleground, where Romney could finish third or fourth. The race could then blow up and drag on for weeks or months – something the GOP can ill-afford against Obama.
It is probably better for the Romney staff to keep their mouths shut and ask Sarah to give some speeches and do some fundraising for them.
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Paul 9% Gingrich 6% Palin 5% Bachmann 4%
According to the latest University of New Hampshire/WMUR/CNN Poll.
Primary Election Head to Head:
- Romney 32%
- Paul 9%
- Gingrich 6%
- Giuliani 6%
- Palin 5%
- Bachmann 4%
- Cain 4%
- Daniels # 4%
- Huntsman 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
* Less than 1% # Daniels announced that he would not run on last day of interviewing.
Satisfied with GOP candidates? – Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for President next year? Are you
very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
- Very satisfied 9%
- Somewhat satisfied 42%
- Somewhat dissatisfied 28%
- Very dissatisfied 15%
- No opinion 6%
Strongest GOP Leader:
- Romney 40%
- Giuliani 12%
- Gingrich 11%
- Palin 3%
- Paul 3%
- Pawlenty 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 1%
- Daniels 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Huntsman *
- Johnson *
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 20%
Most Believable GOP candidate:
- Romney 20%
- Paul 12%
- Gingrich 7%
- Palin 6%
- Bachmann 5%
- Cain 5%
- Giuliani 5%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 23%
Most Likeable GOP candidate:
- Romney 29%
- Palin 10%
- Giuliani 8%
- Paul 7%
- Bachmann 6%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Gingrich 4%
- Cain 3%
- Huntsman 2%
- Santorum 2%
- Daniels 1%
- Johnson *
- Karger *
- Roemer *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
Best GOP candidate to beat President Obama:
- Romney 42%
- Giuliani 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Gingrich 3%
- Palin 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 2%
- Huntsman 2%
- Paul 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 31%
Is there any doubt that Mitt Romney is far and above any other candidate in New Hampshire?
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Updated – President 2012: Tim Pawlenty Has Serial Child Molester Pardon Problems
Looks like it is back to Romney folks.
Jeremy Giefer served time in jail in 1994 for having sex with a 14-year-old girl. But you wouldn’t know it to look at the record of the man now charged with sexually molesting his daughter more than 250 times over the last eight years.
That’s because two years ago, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Attorney General Lori Swanson, and then-Chief Justice Eric Magnuson unanimously voted to wipe Giefer’s record clean, granting him a pardon extraordinary.
Read it all…..
Next candidate.
Pawlenty’s pardon problem involves Jeremy Geifer, who had been convicted in a statutory rape case involving a 14-year-old girl he later married. Geifer had been described by everyone in his life as a model of reform, which eventually led to a 2008 pardon by a three-person board led by Pawlenty.
But late last year, Geifer was accused of sexually assaulting another underage girl more than 250 times. Pawlenty moved swiftly, asking for a probe into whether Geifer lied on his pardon application and pushing to close down a day care run by his wife.
While finishing his term as Minnesota’s governor last year, Pawlenty said he never would have made that decision had such information been known at the time. And he pointed out that Geifer had finished his prison stint well before the pardon was granted – a mitigating factor that could lessen any of his rivals’ blows.
Yet there is also the case of Dru Sjodin, a college student who was murdered in 2003, early in Pawlenty’s administration, by a repeat sex offender who had only recently been released from prison. That case became national cable TV fodder, as the tragic search for the pretty blonde gripped viewers.
A Pawlenty aide referred to the governor’s book, “Courage to Stand,” in which he wrote that people played politics with the case and often had the facts wrong, and that Pawlenty was “horrified” by the man’s release.
The governor later proposed stiffer sentences for sex offenders, including doubling their jail time.
I can see Mitt Romney’s direct mail and television spots now against T-Paw, if he ever becomes an electoral threat.