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According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.

By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

New Post-ABC numbers show Obama leading five of six potential Republican presidential rivals tested in the poll. But he is in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his 2012 candidacy last week, making jobs and the economy the central issues in his campaign.

Again, this is a national poll, so take it with a grain of salt. We all know that it is the election in key battleground states that really matter.

Mitt Romney is leading President Obama, 49% to 46% among registered voters but it is within the margin of error, so it is not statistically relevant, although it does point out Obama’s vulnerability. The other GOP candidates do not fair as well as Mitt Romney (see the graphic above).

GOP Primary election:

• Romney – 21% (16%, 4/172011)
• Palin – 17% (5%)
• Giuliani – 8% (NA)
• Gingrich – 6% (2%)
• Paul – 6% (2%)
• Pawlenty – 4% (1%)
• Cain – 4% (NA)
• Bachmann – 3% (1%)
• None of the above – 5% (12%)

Well, Mitt Romney is polling the best against Obama but it is uncertain as to whether he can win in the GOP nomination race. It is also uncertain whether Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani will run.

My best guess, is that should Sarah Palin decide to roll the dice and run, that Rudy Giuliani will also enter the race. Rudy will count on the divisiveness of a Romney Vs. Palin contest, while he easily wins  East and West Coast Republican primary elections and delegates. He might also figure a deal with Romney to defeat Palin. A wild card in all of this will be Michele Bachmann who will run strong in the Iowa Caucus and may gather some momentum going into South Carolina.

So, what does this all mean?

The economy is weak, voters do not think it is improving, Obama is in trouble and the GOP Presidential field while hopeful, is uncertain, with no front runner.

The entire poll is here.

Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
• Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
• Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
• Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
• Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%

General Election Head to Head:

• Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
• Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
• Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
• Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
• Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%

Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.

When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.

Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.

Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.

The entire poll is here.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Even as the Republican field for president really starts to take final  shape, there truly is no frontrunner, perhaps more than ever before.  And several longshot contenders are getting significant traction in this unclear environment, while others decline.  Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin share the lead at 16% in PPP’s latest national poll of Republican primary voters, with Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Herman Cain at 12%, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann at 9% each, and Jon Huntsman at 4%.  

While her potential candidacy has received renewed speculation in the last week, if Palin does not make a bid, it would boost Romney to 20%, Gingrich and Bachmann to 13%, and Paul to 11%, with the other three running in place. 

The entire poll is here.

PPP surveyed 574 usual Republican primary voters  nationwide from May 23rd to 25th .The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
• Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
• Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
• Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
• Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
• Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
• Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
• Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
• Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
• Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
• Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
• Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
• Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
• Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
• Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%

GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?

• Romney – 21%
• Palin – 15%
• Cain – 15%
• Gingrich -12%
• Pawlenty – 10%
• Ron Paul – 8%
• Jon Huntsman – 0%

If Sarah Palin does not run then?

• Romney – 26%
• Cain – 16%
• Gingrich – 15%
• Bachmann – 14%
• Pawlenty – 10%
• Paul – 11%
• Huntsman – 1%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

• Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

• Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

• Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%

Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.

Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:

So, what does this all mean?

There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?

Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.

The entire poll is here.

Not endorsed by or affiliated with Tim Pawlenty or anyone from his campaign. Produced by SerumVerum. Music by Diego Massanti, Argentina – Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

Based on the Verum Serum Jon Huntsman is a RINO video, this one is quite good.

This Tuesday, the conservative blog Verum Serum posted a devastating fake-Huntsman ad detailing the former Utah governor’s support for cap and trade, health care as a right, and Obama’s stimulus.

Someone isn’t happy with Verum Serum’s handy work. Today, some one calling themselves “SerumVerum” has posted a YouTube that is an almost frame-for-frame remake of the Huntsman ad, but this time the target is former-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

I say NO to Pawlenty and Huntsman anyway.

According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.

• Giuliani 16%
• Romney 15%
• Palin 13%
• Paul 12%
• Cain 10%
• Gingrich 8%
• Bachmann 7%
• Pawlenty 5%
• Santorum 2%
• Huntsman 1%
• Johnson 1%
• Roemer *
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 5%
• No opinion

And, who would be your second choice?

• Romney 15%
• Giuliani 14%
• Gingrich 10%
• Bachmann 10%
• Palin 10%
• Paul 7%
• Pawlenty 6%
• Huntsman 6%
• Cain 5%
• Santorum 2%
• Johnson 2%
• Karger *
• Roemer 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 4%
• None/ No one (vol.) 8%
• No opinion 2%

An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.

But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin.

GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:

• Romney 19%
• Palin 15%
• Paul 13%
• Cain 11%
• Gingrich 11%
• Bachmann 7%
• Pawlenty 5%
• Huntsman 3%
• Santorum 2%
• Johnson 2%
• Roemer 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 6%
• No opinion 2%

GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:

• Romney 21%
• Paul 15%
• Cain 13%
• Gingrich 12%
• Bachmann 9%
• Pawlenty 5%
• Huntsman 3%
• Santorum 3%
• Johnson 2%
• Roemer 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5%
• None/ No one (vol.) 9%
• No opinion 2%

This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Sarah Palin – 66% vs. 24%
• Mitt Romney – 55% Vs. 25%
• Newt Gingrich – 42% vs. 34%

GOP Primary Head to Head:

• Romney – 21%
• Palin – 16%
• Cain – 12%
• Gingrich – 12%
• Bachmann – 10%
• Paul – 9%
• Pawlenty – 5%
• Huntsman – 1%
• Someone else/not sure – 15%

The entire poll is here.

Romney’s ahead in Ohio because he has a broad lead with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative,’ getting 27% with Gingrich coming in second at 14%. He’s also ahead with moderates at 22% to Palin’s 18%. Voters falling into the ‘very conservative’ camp continue to be a problem for him though. His favorability with them is a +37 spread at 61/24. That puts him a whooping 33 points below Palin’s standing with that same group, which is a +70 spread at 83/13. 

Palin leads the horse race with those voters at 20% with Michele Bachmann at 15%, and Romney tying Cain for third at 13%. Maybe voters on the far right will split their votes enough that their lack of support doesn’t cost Romney the nomination but for now they look like they could be a big problem.

Ohio is a key battleground state and one that the GOP desperately needs to win the general election in the Electoral College. Sarah Palin is showing some signs of a resurgence in the polling now that Mike Huckabee has left the race. I suspect votes for Hermain Cain would go to Palin once she officially declares her candidacy.

Tim Pawlenty is trailing badly and Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are looking more like an anti-Romney candidate (s).