The real campaign for this contested Congressional seat will be in November. But, Republican Tony Strickland is playing nice with this positive mailer about constituent service.
A very good idea to portray yourself in a positive manner while the Democrat Julia Brownley goes after No Party Preference independent candidate Linda Parks in the June primary election.
It is called placing a little goodwill in the general election bank.
First, lets look a the early balloting (California allows early by mail voting):
Here’s what we know, based on information compiled by Political Data Inc. and Redistricting Partners: In the 26th Congressional District, 7 percent of the ballots sent to the district’s 151,515 permanent mail-in voters have already been returned. Of them, 40 percent have come from Democrats, 45 percent from Republicans and 11 percent from nonpartisans.
Although CA-26 has a plurality of registered Democrats, the preponderance of early returned ballots, speaks to more enthusiastic voting by Republicans. And, these Republicans, are probably NOT voting for Linda Parks (who changed her registration from Republican to No Party Preference at the beginning of this campaign).
Note, also the non-partisan or Declined to State returned mail ballots are ONLY at 11%.
Herdt says that Linda Parks must capture 35 per cent of the Republican and non-partisan vote, plus 22 per cent of Democratic votes in order to beat Democrat Assemblywoman Julia Brownley for second place. I don’t see how she gets there.
With the blistering Democratic direct mail attacks on Parks and the preference for GOP primary voters to vote for one of their own, Parks will likely come in a close third to Brownley.
Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland has run a very smart race. His low-key campaign, while raining tons of campaign cash for November has been the winning strategy.
Watch your mailbox for more Democratic attacks on Parks as Brownley closes out the campaign.
Political strategists have historically just about all come to the same conclusion about how to campaign in Ventura County: mail, mail and more mail. So it is intriguing to see the approach that Supervisor Linda Parks of Thousand Oaks is taking in running as an independent in the 26th Congressional District. She and her consultant, George Gorton, have decided to put nearly all their resources into cable TV.
Public documents from Time Warner show that Gorton’s partner Garrett Biggs on April 5 signed a $202,200 contract to air Parks ads on Ventura County cable systems through Election Day. The current schedule shows spots slated to run nearly every day through May 13, presumably with more to be scheduled later. They are placed on a wide range of cable channels, including ESPN, the Food Network, Fox Sports, MSNBC, HGTV, the Discovery Channel and the History Network.
“It’s a pretty significant buy,” Gorton told me yesterday.
I know George Gorton from his days with Pete Wilson and his successful campaigns for U.S. Senate and California Governor. All of Gorton’s Wilson campaigns were very successful and almost all of the media was on television, broadcast and cable. So, a television only strategy is not unusual for Gorton.
And, certainly this strategy is not unusual for Linda Parks who will be campaign cash challenged as compared to Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland and Democrat California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley. A direct mail campaign to all of Ventura County potential voters would be cost prohibitive for Parks – especially since she is a NPP (No Party Preference) and cannot mail to only Republican or Democratic households with the same message.
Here is Park’s latest ad, embedded below and it features many of her supporters from City Council and Supervisor campaigns (very low production costs and value):
What is surprising to me, is not the Park’s strategy. This is the same media campaign that her mentor and my former neighbor successful Thousand Oaks City Councilwoman Jaime Zukowski used to beat an incumbent Thousand Oaks Mayor Robert Lewis over twenty years ago. What is surprising is that neither Strickland nor Brownley have responded with ANY cable television ads of their own.
Parks has been on for over two weeks and nobody has gone “on air.”
As far as internet ads are concerned, I have seen little activity thus far for Parks. She will likely do some and I will let you know when I see them appear.
And, I bet when Brownley’s and Strickland’s consultants get around to reading Herdt’s and my pieces, they may actually produce some responding or even negative television ads. At least they should, especially Brownley, if she doesn’t want to finish third to Parks or Strickland in June.
Daivd Cruz Thayne is up with his first online web ad.
I have embedded the video below:
It is pretty much a biography and tells of his early years as a South American immigrant to the United States.
Thayne is one of four Democrats running for two spots against Republican State Senator Tony Strickland and NPP (No Party Preference) Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks.
While saying they agree with the need for greater public awareness about the importance of regularly washing reusable cloth grocery bags, members of the Senate Environmental Quality Committee rejected a bill Monday that would have required warnings about potential food contamination on the bags.
The bill was defeated 4-1, with only its author, Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Moorpark, voting in support.
While Strickland said his bill was “about food safety and public health,” environmental groups assailed it as an attempt to needlessly alarm consumers about an option promoted as an alternative to single-use plastic bags, which have become a source of litter and ocean pollution.
The bill was just mean-spirited, stupidity on the part of the Republican Strickland. The plastic and paper bag manufacturers are pissed off because many California cities are banning their products and forcing the use of reusable bags.
What is Tony Strickland thinking?
More Nanny State and government mandates because your business supporters haven’t been getting their way and business is being impacted?
Now, I have problems with banning plastic and paper bags as unnecessary NANNY STATE regulations – but to hit back and require EVEN MORE stupid state regulations?
Tony Strickland knows better than this and lucky for him that this bill was slapped down early and can easily be forgotten before the June election.
Now, Tony about that other stupid move in endorsing Patricia McKeon and throwing your friend Scott Wilk under the bus…..
As a growing number of California cities and counties have adopted local ordinances banning the distribution of single-use plastic bags in the name of reducing litter and ocean pollution, Sen. Tony Strickland is concerned about a different threat at the grocery checkout line: reusable cloth bags.
Strickland, R-Moorpark, believes those bags are a threat to public health because of the possibility of cross-contamination of bacteria from produce and that from meats and poultry. He wants to see a label printed on every reusable bag sold in California that reads, “WARNING: Reusable bags must be cleaned and disinfected between uses to prevent food cross contamination. Failure to do so can cause serious illness resulting from food-borne pathogens.”
Strickland proposes that label in Senate Bill 1106, which would also require grocers to conspicuously display the same warning near where reusable bags are sold.
“The goal here is public safety,” he said. “Consumers have a right to know that if they don’t wash them they put their health at risk.”
Sorry Tony.
But, your contention that there is a health hazard here is just plain stupid.
I know you are doing this to punish those communities like Los Angeles who ban plastic bags. But, the rest of California doesn’t need MORE NANNY STATE to tell us when to clean out our reusable bags.
Now, I have problems with banning plastic bags.
However, more government regulation to cure government overreach is NOT a solution.
You should know better.
Drop the bill.
Find another contrasting issue upon which to run for Congress and beat Julia Brownley.
Tony Strickland: The Republican state senator from California raised a huge $781,000 in the first quarter for his run at a competitive open House seat in the 26th district, besting both Democratic state Assemblywoman Julia Brownley and independent Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks by half a million dollars. If the GOP can snatch this seat, it would go a long way toward stopping some of the bleeding after a tough redistricting draw.
In CD26, Julia Brownley picks up $256k and has $254k on hand, Tony Strickland raised $782k with $732k on hand, and David Cruz Thayne collected $39k and has $62k on hand.
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