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Sacramento Bee: With re-election bid ahead, governor’s cupboard is bare

After a special election with a price tag that topped $275 million, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s personal war chest is virtually empty as he begins his 2006 re-election campaign, according to reports filed Tuesday with the secretary of state.

Schwarzenegger’s ballot initiative committee alone exhausted $45.5 million during last year’s special election campaign in which voters rejected eight ballot proposals, including four specifically backed by the governor.

With all the large campaign committees reporting, opponents of the governor spent about $121 million to defeat those four initiatives, while Schwarzenegger and his allies fought the battle with $76 million of their own.

Outspent by $45 million Schwarzenegger’s opponents have a significant advantage in the media buys. But, the Governor ran a POOR campaign and the poor fundraising followed.

Schwarzenegger managed a NO-LOSE campaign into a LOSER.

The California Teachers Association spent $58.5 million to defeat Arnold.

On Proposition 73 – the abortion parental notification initiative – opponents outspent proponents $5.6 million to $1.9 million.

Record setting spending – the nature of California politics.

California Correctional Peace Officers Association president Mike Jimenez, left, and California Nurses Association president Deborah Burger celebrate their victory over Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ballot initiatives at a rally in Sacramento, Calif., on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2005.

Technorati Tags: CaliforniaSpecialElection, ArnoldSchwarzenegger, AllianceforaBetterCalifornia, CaliforniaTeachersAssociation, CaliforniaNursesAssociation

The San Francisco Chronicle has Republican strongholds left Schwarzenegger in the cold Past allies were no-shows at polls — or opponents

Voters in some of California’s most reliably Republican counties deserted Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in droves Tuesday, either sitting out the special election or working actively against the governor’s political agenda.

While Schwarzenegger’s supporters argue that the landslide defeat was a one-time reaction to an unpopular special election, it’s a result that threatens the chances of Schwarzenegger — and other Republican candidates — in next November’s statewide elections.

Absolutely correct.

That is why Flap suggests Schwarzenegger call his agent and book some movie deals.

Schwarzenegger hasn’t necessarily lost all the people who voted against his package of initiatives Tuesday, but he’s made it easier for them to look at the Democratic alternatives in next year’s re-election campaign. The governor seems to recognize the need for changes, pledging Thursday to work more closely with the Democrat-led Legislature and agreeing Friday to end a legal battle over hospital staffing with the California Nurses Association, one of his most vocal critics.

“Just because the people here voted against Schwarzenegger doesn’t mean that they’re not mad at the rest of the government as well,” said Giventer of Cal State Stanislaus. “But the governor has to show he’s going to pay attention to what’s important.”

But, if Schwarzenegger moves to the LEFT he will further alienate or demotivate his Republican base. The Governator has trouble on the LEFT and RIGHT.

He is really in a NO-WIN bind.

Flap predicts that Schwarzenegger will withdraw from re-election if he cannot quickly rehabilitiate his poll numbers.

Isn’t this what his movie pal, Jesse Ventura did?

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80

Teamster member Noah Teegarden holds up a sign against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ballot measures during a get-out-the-vote drive at the local teamsters hall in Sacramento, Calif., Monday, Nov. 7, 2005.

The ASSociated Press has Voters Reject Schwarzenegger Initiatives.

In a stinging rebuke from voters who elected him two years ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s efforts to reshape state government were rejected during a special election that darkened his prospects for a second term.

The Republican governor and former Hollywood actor, who likes to say he can sell anything, on Tuesday saw all four of his signature ballot proposals rejected.

The election pitted the once-dominant Republican governor against two of California’s powerhouse political forces — public employee unions and Democrats who control the Legislature.

The unions spent millions of dollars to beat Schwarzenegger’s propositions to limit the use of their member dues for political purposes, cap state spending, redraw legislative districts and restrict public school teacher tenure.

It was a sobering evening for a man once considered among the most popular politicians in America. The contest represented the biggest test yet of a faltering Schwarzenegger’s leadership.

Voters overwhelmingly defeated Proposition 76, the governor’s centerpiece proposal to slow the growth of state spending. Proposition 77, which would have redrawn legislative and congressional districts, was knocked down by a similar margin.

Failing by slimmer spreads were Proposition 74, a plan to make teachers work longer to achieve tenure, and Proposition 73, which would have restricted political spending by public employee unions.

Poll after poll showed it was an election that Californians didn’t want, with a total lineup of eight initiatives that didn’t connect with every day issues such as gas prices, housing costs and the war in
Iraq.

Schwarzenegger’s conflict with the unions made him a target for teachers, nurses and firefighters. Their television advertising blitz helped push his popularity ratings to record lows.

Union leaders and Democrats who opposed the governor chanted “sweep, sweep” at their Sacramento victory party. “I’m very grateful to Arnold Schwarzenegger for really working people up,” said Deborah Burger, president of the California Nurses Association.

Well, the voters of California have spoken loud and clear.

STATUS QUO!

There will be many analyses of the special election campaign. And Flap will write and comment on them over the weeks ahead.

But, for sure the unmistaken message from California was the COMPLETE rejection of Schwarzenegger’s reform agenda.

Others may spin this defeat for the Governator and the California Recovery Team, but Schwarzenegger was BEATEN and TERMINATED.

If Flap was Arnold, after a nice relaxing trade mission to China, I would start entertaining movie deals.

More later…….

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger addresses invited guests at an election party in Beverly Hills. Official returns showed that California voters roundly rejected four crucial referendum measures on which Schwarzenegger had staked his political reputation.

California Special Election Results with 99.5% of the precincts resporting:

State Ballot Measures
99.5% ( 17577 of 17657 ) precincts reporting as of Nov 9, 2005 at 3:57 am

Statewide Returns	County Returns | County Status

   Propositions                      Yes Votes   Pct.   No Votes   Pct.

  73 N    Minor's Pregnancy          3,117,521  47.5   3,445,617  52.5  Map 

  74 N    Teacher Tenure             2,975,578  44.9   3,641,434  55.1  Map 

  75 N    Public Union Dues          3,081,355  46.6   3,529,245  53.4  Map 

  76 N    Spending/Funding           2,512,920  38.0   4,091,907  62.0  Map 

  77 N    Redistricting              2,663,629  40.5   3,897,648  59.5  Map 

  78 N    Rx Drug Discounts          2,706,996  41.5   3,802,493  58.5  Map 

  79 N    Rx Drug Rebates            2,510,499  38.9   3,932,332  61.1  Map 

  80 N    Electric Regulation        2,177,432  34.3   4,162,788  65.7  Map 

Stay Tuned for analysis……..

And the beginning of California Election 2006………

Update #3 10:02 PM

Only Prop 75 passing but majority of counties reporting are from Northern California and 99% of San Francisco County.

Little LA, Orange or San Diego Counties have reported majority of their precincts

Update #2 8:52 PM

Will Arnold go 3-2 with 73, 74 and 75 passing?

Update #1

Watch real time election results with Flap here.

From the Official Voter Information Guide:

PROPOSITION 73

WAITING PERIOD AND PARENTAL NOTIFICATION BEFORE TERMINATION OF MINOR’S PREGNANCY. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

SUMMARY

Amends California Constitution, defining and prohibiting abortion for unemancipated minor until 48 hours after physician notifies minor’s parent/guardian, except in medical emergency or with parental waiver. Mandates reporting requirements. Authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violation. Fiscal Impact: Potential unknown net state costs of several million dollars annually for health and social services programs, the courts, and state administration combined.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A YES VOTE

PROPOSITION 74

PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS. WAITING PERIOD FOR PERMANENT STATUS. DISMISSAL. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

SUMMARY

Increases probationary period for public school teachers from two to five years. Modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a teaching employee who receives two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. Fiscal Impact: Unknown net effect on school districts’ costs for teacher compensation, performance evaluations, and other activities. Impact would vary significantly by district and depend largely on future district personnel actions.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A YES VOTE

PROPOSITION 75

PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNION DUES. RESTRICTIONS ON POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS. EMPLOYEE CONSENT REQUIREMENT. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

SUMMARY

Prohibits using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees’ prior consent. Excludes contributions benefitting charities or employees. Requires unions to maintain and, upon request, report member political contributions to Fair Political Practices Commission. Fiscal Impact: Probably minor state and local government implementation costs, potentially offset in part by revenues from fines and/or fees.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A YES VOTE

PROPOSITION 76

STATE SPENDING AND SCHOOL FUNDING LIMITS. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

SUMMARY

Limits state spending to prior year’s level plus three previous years’ average revenue growth. Changes minimum school funding requirements (Proposition 98). Permits Governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of Governor’s choosing. Fiscal Impact: State spending likely reduced relative to current law, due to additional spending limit and new powers granted to Governor. Reductions could apply to schools and shift costs to other local governments.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A YES VOTE

PROPOSITION 77

REDISTRICTING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

SUMMARY

Amends state Constitution’s process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly, Congressional and Board of Equalization districts. Requires three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. Fiscal Impact: One-time state redistricting costs totaling no more than $1.5 million and county costs in the range of $1 million. Potential reduction in future costs, but net impact would depend on decisions by voters.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A YES VOTE

PROPOSITION 78

DISCOUNTS ON PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

SUMMARY

Establishes discount prescription drug program for certain low- and moderate-income Californians. Authorizes Department of Health Services to contract with participating pharmacies for discounts and with participating drug manufacturers for rebates. Fiscal Impact: State costs for administration and outreach in the millions to low tens of millions of dollars annually. State costs for advance funding for rebates. Unknown potentially significant savings for state and county health programs.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A NO VOTE

PROPOSITION 79

PRESCRIPTION DRUG DISCOUNTS. STATE-NEGOTIATED REBATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

SUMMARY

Provides drug discounts to Californians with qualifying incomes. Funded by state-negotiated drug manufacturer rebates. Prohibits Medi-Cal contracts with manufacturers not providing Medicaid best price. Fiscal Impact: State costs for administration and outreach in low tens of millions of dollars annually. State costs for advance funding for rebates. Unknown potentially significant: (1) net costs or savings for Medi-Cal and (2) savings for state and county health programs.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A NO VOTE

PROPOSITION 80

ELECTRIC SERVICE PROVIDERS. REGULATION. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

SUMMARY

Subjects electric service providers to regulation by California Public Utilities Commission. Restricts electricity customers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers. Requires all retail electric sellers to increase renewable energy resource procurement by 2010. Fiscal Impact: Potential annual administrative costs ranging from negligible to $4 million, paid by fees. Unknown net impact on state and local costs and revenues from uncertain impact on electricity rates.

FLAP RECOMMENDS A NO VOTE

Well, there you have it!

Now, go and vote.

Flap knows you will be glad you did.

For more Voter guides head over to XRLQ’s place.

Once again, here are links to the blogger election guides of which I’ve been made aware:

1. Stephen Bainbridge (update here)
2. BoiFromTroi (73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 80)
3. Tammy Bruce
4. California Conservative (see also)
5. Cobb
6. Matthew Hoy
7. K.G. at California Mafia
8. Lonewacko
9. Hugo Schwyzer
10. Citizen Smash
11. Michael Williams
12. Yami Monkey
13. Xrlq

BFL Special Election blog

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Los Angeles Times has Voters Support Parental Notice

California voters narrowly favor an initiative on Tuesday’s ballot to bar abortions for minors unless parents are notified….

Views are more set, however, on Proposition 73, the abortion measure, which 51% of likely voters support and 39% oppose. It would prohibit abortions for those younger than 18 until 48 hours after a doctor notified a parent or guardian. There would be some exceptions, including medical emergencies or a parental waiver of the notification rule.

Men tend to support parental notification more than women do, the poll found. Nearly six in 10 men back Proposition 73, but women are split almost evenly.

The measure is also favored by nearly two-thirds of those who attend religious services at least once a month, underscoring the potential value of the Republican Party’s promotion of the measure among evangelicals and other conservative Christians. The proposal is most popular among Republicans, conservatives and the elderly.

“A parent should be involved with a minor’s decision on that,” poll respondent Paula Maine, 46, a conservative Republican pharmaceutical saleswoman who lives in Diamond Bar, said in a follow-up interview.

The measure is least popular among Democrats and liberals, but their opposition is slightly outweighed by more intense support for the measure among Republicans and conservatives.

Proposition 73, the Parents Right To Know Initiative website.

The Official Title and Summary.

A history of polling from Real Clear Politics is here.

Flap Says VOTE YES!

Will Proposition 73 galvanize the Christian RIGHT for Schwarzenegger?

Stay Tuned……

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Los Angeles Times, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Sacramento Bee has Abortion measure could be pivotal.

Forces for and against are using Prop. 73 to galvanize their base on the governor’s initiatives.

The California Catholic Conference prepared a series of homilies for priests to mark October as “Respect Life” month and to use as a countdown to the Nov. 8 special election.

The sermons make references to Proposition 73, an initiative that would require parental notification before doctors can perform abortions on girls under 18.

“Proposition 73 is family-oriented, pro-life and promotes the culture of life,” wrote Father Richard Benson, academic dean and moral theology chairman for St. John’s Seminary in Camarillo, in his suggested “homily notes” for priests delivering Mass. “It closes the secret access to abortion.”

The talking point homilies are among numerous get-out-the-vote efforts in support of or against the parental notification initiative.

Proposition 73 was in the planning long before Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced his special election agenda. But as churches, women’s groups and others rally forces to vote on the initiative, the turnout for Proposition 73 is viewed as a factor in how other special election measures may fare.

On one side, the Traditional Values Coalition is printing 100,000 slate mailers for evangelical churches, declaring: “We must not let Planned Parenthood and their baby-killing allies dominate at the polls.”

And Benjamin Lopez, a coalition lobbyist, said the slate mailers will also urge Christian conservatives to vote “yes” on the governor’s special election agenda, comprising Propositions 74, 75, 76 and 77. The measures would extend the time it takes teachers to earn tenure, require public employee labor unions to get members’ permission before spending dues on political campaigns, give the governor broad powers to make budget cuts and change how legislative districts are drawn.

“We need to get our base motivated about 73 and that, hopefully, will have a coattail effect with the other measures,” Lopez said

With a week to go before the California Special Election it is ALL about turning out your voter BASE.

Will Pro-Life voters deliver proposition victories for Governor Schwarzenegger?

Stay tuned…….

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Capitol Research Institute, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page