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Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results

A new Survey USA Poll has been released.

In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters.

Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate,

Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

60% Yes
38% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

53% Yes
45% No
1% Undecided

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

56% Yes
42% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

This is continued good news for the Governor.

Absentee ballots have been mailed and requests for them are greater than Arnold’s last election in 2003.

Elections officials in Los Angeles County, which is home to nearly a quarter of California’s registered voters, already have sent out 445,784 absentee ballots. That’s up from 338,747 at the same point in the 2004 primary race and 350,747 in the recall.

“We’re actually running closer to the numbers we saw in the 2004 general election,” said Kristin Heffron, chief deputy registrar for Los Angeles County.

There’s a similar situation in Santa Clara County, where the 200,972 absentee ballots already mailed to voters are more than the 132,965 issued in the 2004 primary and not far behind the 232,231 mailed out for the November general election.

“I think there’s interest out there,” said Alma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Country registrar. “It’s not like a governor’s race, with a 50 percent turnout, or the 70 percent that turns out for a presidential race, but we’re looking at a 40 to 45 percent turnout, like for a primary.”

Stay Tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Los Angeles Times has Gov., McClintock on Same Side This Time.

The conservative state senator, who opposed Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, appears in Redding to help promote initiatives.

Campaigning alongside Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Tuesday, state Sen. Tom McClintock paused and stated the obvious: “Now, you all know I ran against this governor in the recall.”

Assessing the damage, Schwarzenegger grinned and said, “Just a little bit.”

he legislator from Thousand Oaks could once have been a political liability, but the governor has brought his more conservative — and frequently — contrarian Republican colleague into the tent.

On Tuesday, during an appearance here to promote the Nov. 8 special election, the governor called the senator a “terrific, terrific partner of mine.”

McClintock, the only major Republican to challenge Schwarzenegger during the contentious recall effort in 2003, ended up getting 1.1 million votes, or 13.5%. Further frustrating Schwarzenegger, he signed the ballot arguments opposing the governor’s budget initiatives last year.

But McClintock has produced an ad for talk radio stations supporting the governor’s special election agenda. And he is expected to show up again in conservative areas, such as Redding, the seat of a county where he and Schwarzenegger received nearly 80% of the recall election votes.

Tom McClintock is a very smart yet principled politician. He observed the Republican 11th Commandment when he ran against the Governor in the recall and understands the importance of the special election reforms to California governance. He recognizes his lot is cast with Schwarzenegger’s.

McClintock wil be a good running mate next year. Flap handicaps that the Governor and McClintock will win as Team Republican.

The only question then left for McClintock will be whether in future years he will seek the Governor’s office again or returns to Thousand Oaks and runs for Congress for a one day retiring Elton Gallegly’s seat.

McClintock’s Lt. Governor website is here.

Technorati Tags: Tom McClintock, Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Capitol Research Institute, Proposition 73, Proposition 80

The Public Plicy Institute of California has its latest poll, PPIC Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process, September 2005.

The poll numbers are not favorable for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. However, the poll was conducted prior to the beginning Governor’s television campaign and did not poll on proposition 75, the Paycheck Protection Initiative.

Ok, here are the numbers:

* Proposition 74 (teacher tenure), 43% yes, 47% no

* Proposition 76 (spending and funding limits), 26% yes, 63% no

* Proposition 77 (redistricting), 33% yes, 50% no

* Proposition 78 (prescription drug discounts), 43% yes, 38% no

* Proposition 79 (prescription drug discounts), 34% yes, 40% no

The full report is here.

The Governor’s personal poll numbers are unfavorable as well:

Currently, 33 percent of Californians approve and 58 percent disapprove of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor. His ratings today are similar to those of the state legislature (32% approve, 53% disapprove). Fewer Californians today than one year ago say the governor is doing an excellent or good job working for their best interests (from 46% to 28%). Likely voters are slightly more supportive of the governor than are Californians generally: 38 percent approve of his performance in office, while 55 percent disapprove. His ratings were virtually
unchanged before and after he announced his reelection plans on September 16th.

Flap believes the Governor can turn these numbers around with more media exposure – meaning television. The public employee unions have spent tens of millions of dollars and the Governor was late in raising and matching media dollars.

Time is fleeting for the Governor and the television spots need to be increased in frequency.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Alliance for a Better California has a Blog.

The Alliance for a Better California represents nearly 2 million teachers, firefighters, nurses, health care workers and average, every day people who are devoting our careers to helping others. For some reason Governor Schwarzenegger has decided that we are the enemy. We are not. We want what’s best for Californians and we don’t understand why the Governor is blaming us for all the problems of our state.

Instead of dealing with the problems Californians care about, the Governor is still pursuing an agenda that will do nothing to fix schools, traffic or the state’s budget — and he’s still threatening to hold a special election costing taxpayers $70 million on ideas that aren’t ready for prime time.

Governor Schwarzenegger is out of touch with the people he claims to represent, and we won’t be fooled by his empty promises. If he insists on holding an unnecessary and expensive special election, we will put our own good ideas directly before the voters of California, and we will win.

The Alliance for a Better California includes:

* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
* Association of California School Administrators (ACSA)
* California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA)
* California Faculty Association (CFA)
* California Federation of Teachers (CFT)
* California Labor Federation
* California Professional Firefighters (CPF)
* California School Employees Association (CSEA)
* California Teachers Association (CTA)
* Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC)
* Service Employees International Union (SEIU)
* SEIU Local 1000

Flap notices that the supporters are all public employee unions……

Oh! What a surprise.

These folks are the new Southern Pacific Railroad of the 21st Century.

Keep up with all of the Lefties and the California Special Election – tune in here.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Sacramento Bee has Governor’s far behind on 2 issues, Spending limits and redistricting trail, while teacher tenure holds onto poll lead.

Two of the three initiatives Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed to fix California government are losing badly and a third is trending in the same direction – toward defeat, according to a new Field Poll.

A fourth initiative aimed at the financial heart of Schwarzenegger’s union-funded political opposition continues to hold a substantial lead, although a huge bankroll of labor-generated campaign cash poses a threat to the measure.

The Field Poll is here.

Proposition 75 (Public Employee Union Dues) Paycheck Protection:

In its latest statewide survey, The Field Poll finds the Yes side on Prop. 75 maintaining a large
twenty-three point lead, unchanged from an earlier poll in June.

This measure would prohibit public employee labor organizations from using dues or fees from its
members for political contributions unless the employee provides prior written consent. Currently, 55% of likely voters favor the measure, while 32% are on the No side. This division of sentiment is virtually the same as was found in June, when it was 57% Yes and 34% No. Democrats and non-partisans are only narrowly supporting Prop. 75, while Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor 71% to 22%. Men and women, as well as voters in Southern and Northern California, currently favor Prop. 75.

Proposition 74 (Public School Teacher’s Tenure)

The Yes side on Prop. 74 continues to lead by nine points (46% to 37%), its preference margin is down from a twenty-nine point lead in June.

Prop. 74 is a measure called the “Public School Teachers: Waiting Period for Permanent Status;
Dismissal” initiative. It would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from
two to five years and modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss teaching employees who have received two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. The current poll shows that there has also been a big change in voter sentiment on this proposition. In June the Yes side had a large two-to-one lead – 61% to 32%. Now, Prop. 74 leads only narrowly, 46% Yes to 37% No.
While the Yes side maintains the lead overall, the poll shows that shifts in the opinion away from
Yes to No have among all voter sub-groups.

Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits)

The measure which is reportedly the linchpin of the government reform measures being backed by
Governor Schwarzenegger is Prop. 76, the “School Spending and State Spending” initiative. According to its official ballot summary, Prop. 76 would limit state spending to prior year levels
plus the average revenue growth of the three previous years. It would also change the minimum
school funding requirements under Prop. 98 and permits the Governor to reduce state budgets
under certain circumstances. After being read this summary, the likely voters interviewed in this survey were asked how they would vote if the election were being held today. Statewide, 65% say they would vote No, 19%would vote Yes and 16% are undecided. This represents a big increase in opposition to Prop. 76 from what was found in an earlier June Field Poll, when its lead was only seven points (42% to 35%). Remarkably, majorities or pluralities across all voter subgroups, Democrats, Republicans, nonpartisans, men, women, Southern and Northern California, say they are disposed to vote No on Prop. 76.

Proposition 77 (Redistricting)

There has been no significant change in the voter preferences on Prop. 77 over the past two
months. The No side is leading 46% to 32%, about where it was in June.

Prop. 77 amends the state constitution’s process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly,
Congressional and Board of Equalization districts. In both the June and late August surveys more voters were inclined to vote No than Yes by margins of eleven to fourteen points. Democrats and non-partisans are strongly opposed to Prop. 77, while Republicans are supporting it. Women are strongly opposed 47% to 23%, while men only slightly so (45% to 42%). Opposition to the initiative is somewhat less among voters who had some prior knowledge of the initiative prior to their being surveyed than among voters who had not heard of the measure.

Proposition 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation)

Prop. 80 subjects electric service providers to regulation by the California Public Utilities
Commission, restricts consumers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers, and
requires that all retail suppliers of electricity increase their renewal energy resource purchases by
2010.
Only a relatively small proportion (17%) of voters were aware of this initiative, which has not
been getting as much media attention as the other propositions.
Voter sentiment at this time divides almost evenly into three groups: 33% Yes, 35% No and 32% undecided.

Good news for Proposition 75 in the polls and in that the special interest public employee unions are commiting some serious campaign cash to defeat it. Campaign money that will not be available next year, particularly since the national labor movement is in disarray and declining.

Flap has always thought Proposition 76 and 77 were dog of initiatives. The voters don’t understand and most folks do not care about such measures. This is inside Sacramento politics and voters are disinterested – no matter how much is spent on a media campaign.

When Proposition 76 goes down, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is free to raise taxes to balance the California state budget and raise he will….. with the consent of the electorate.

When Propositiion 77 fails, then the Governor can blame the gerrymandered Democrat legislature for spending the state bankrupt.

Flap recommends the Governor concentrate his resources on:

1. Proposition 75 (Paycheck Protection)

2. His re-election campaign fund

California business who will be affected by the coming state tax increases better get busy supporting the Governor because they know that an Angelides or Westly governorship will mean even HIGHER taxes and MORE regulation – all controlled by the public employee unions.

Oh, by the way, the Governor has already won the special election.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California State Senator, Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, Flap’s Senator and friend has published his position on the November California Special Election Ballot Propositions. They are at his blog or here at the Pro-Family Townhall of the Capitol Research Institute.

Proposition 73: Parental Notification for Abortion. If parental consent is required for a child to use a tanning booth or get her ears pierced, shouldn’t parents at least be notified if she’s getting an abortion? YES. Whether you’re pro-life or pro-choice, this should be the all-time no-brainer.

Proposition 74: Teacher Tenure. Do parents have a right to expect a higher level of competence before a teacher is granted life-time tenure? YES. This modest measure simply increases the teacher probation period from two years to five years.

Proposition 75: Public Employee Union Dues. Should public employees decide for themselves which candidates they will support with their own money? YES. This measure requires that before a public employee union can take money from that employee for political donations, it has to get the employee’s permission.

Proposition 76: State Spending. Should government live within its means? YES. This measure restores the authority that the governor of California had between 1939 and 1983 to make mid-year spending cuts whenever spending outpaces revenue without having to return to the legislature.Proposition

77: Re-districting. Should voters choose their representatives in legislative districts that are drawn without regard to partisan advantage? YES. The most obvious conflict of interest in government is when politicians choose which voters will get to vote for them by drawing their own legislative district lines. This measure puts a stop to it.

Propositions 78 and 79: Prescription drug discounts. Do you want the same people who run the DMV to run your pharmacy? NO. These are rival measures, one supported by drug companies and the other by liberal activists – both of which purport to lower drug prices. What they really do is assure that one group of patients gets to pay higher prices to provide subsidized prices for others. There’s no such thing as a free Levitra.

Proposition 80. Electricity Regulation. Do you want the same people who run the DMV to run your electricity company? NO. This measure locks in monopoly control of your electricity by the bureaucratized utilities and forbids you from ever being able to shop around for the lowest-priced electricity available.

Tom is RIGHT on all of the Propositions and will make a good running mate with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.

Now….. if we can get Schwarzenegger to endorse Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection and Proposition 73, Parental Notification.

McClintock’s Lt. Governor website is here.

Technorati Tags: Tom McClintock, Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Capitol Research Institute, Proposition 73, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page