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292459518 e6a1fa4856 o Election 2006 Watch: John Tester Wins Montana Senate Seat

Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., walks out of the Billings Hotel and Convention Center in Billings, Mont., Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2006. Incumbent Sen. Burns was locked in the fight of his political life early Wednesday, trailing Democrat Jon Tester by fewer than 2,000 votes as the GOP tried to hang on to control of the Senate.

AP: Democrat wins Montana seat, ties Senate

Republican Sen. Conrad Burns lost his job in a squeaker of a race Wednesday, thrust from office due to his own gaffes, his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and a determined campaign by Democrat Jon Tester, a farmer.

Tester’s win gave Democrats at least half the U.S. Senate, but the party still needed a victory in a tight Virginia race to gain control.

Burns, 71, first elected in 1988 as a folksy, backslapping outsider, has been under siege because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and because of his own gaffes — including an incident in which he cursed at firefighters.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Tester had 198,032 votes, or 49.1 percent, to Burns’ 194,904 votes, or 48.3 percent.

Put a fork in Conrad Burns – He’s done!

Also put a fork in the GOP’s chances to hold control of the United States Senate. There will be a recount in Virigina but it will be a long shot at best.

Senate breakdown will be 49-49-2 with the two independents voting with the Democrats.

Just as Flap predicted – A DEBACLE

Stay tuned…….

291047638 49d2a0e43f o Election 2006 Watch: John Tester Wins Montana Senate Seat

Previous:

Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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292027495 35759f660f o Election 2006 Watch: GOP Loses Control of House But Senate Continues Contested

House Democratic Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., fires up fellow Democrats at an election night rally at the Hyatt Regency Hotel near the Capitol in Washington Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2006. She is joined, left to right, by Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Fla.

U.S. House: GOP Loses Control by how much will be the issue.

U.S. Senate: Continues in play. Virginia, Montana, Missouri and Tennessee are contested.

The Maryland Senate race is NOT over and the Washington Post has retracted its projection.

Maryland Election results are here.

Watch along with Flap at the links above.

Stay tuned……..

Update:

Riehl World calls if for Allen but Flap feels it is premature. This race will be recounted and will determine control of the Senate.

Update 12:07 AM EST

Looks like a recount in Virginia with Montana and Missouri going blue.  If Virginia goes to Webb then Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate – as per Flap’s prediction.

The GOP will lose between 20 and 25 seats in the House and control.

THE GOP DEBACLE HAS ARRIVED! 

291047637 4e357fab81 o Election 2006 Watch: GOP Loses Control of House But Senate Continues Contested

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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House

Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate 


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291047637 4e357fab81 o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   House

Election Projection has final United States House Election 2006 Projections:

291228606 a1d59567ed o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   House

Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 208 GOP, 227 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +25, GOP -24, IND -1

Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of 25 House seats and loss of GOP control of the House. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is Election Projections summary of the race:

Summary of Contested House Races

State Major Candidates Projected Result
Arizona – CD 1 Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs Ellen Simon (D) Weak GOP Hold
Arizona – CD 5 J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell (D) Weak DEM Gain
Arizona – CD 8 OPEN: R. Graf (R) vs G. Giffords (D) Mod DEM Gain
California – CD 11 Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs Jerry McNerny (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 4 M. Musgrave (R)-inc vs A. Paccione (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 7 OPEN: O’Donnell (R) vs Perlmutter (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 2 Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 4 Chris Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) Weak GOP Hold
Conn – CD 5 Nancy Johnson (R)-inc vs Chris Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 13 OPEN: V. Buchanan (R) vs C. Jennings (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 16 OPEN: J. Negron (R) vs T. Mahoney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 22 Clay Shaw (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) Weak DEM Gain
Georgia – CD 8 Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs “Mac” Collins (R) Weak DEM Hold
Georgia – CD 12 John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) Weak DEM Hold
Idaho – CD 1 Sali (R)-inc vs Grant (D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 6 OPEN: P. Roskam(R)-inc vs T. Duckworth(D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 8 M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) Weak DEM Hold
Indiana – CD 2 Chris Chocola (R)-inc vs Joseph Donnelly (D) Weak DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 8 John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) Mod DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 9 Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) Weak GOP Hold
Iowa – CD 1 OPEN: Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) Mod DEM Gain
Kentucky – CD 3 Anne Northup (R)-inc vs John Yarmuth (D) Weak GOP Hold
Kentucky – CD 4 Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs Ken Lucas (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 1 Gil Gutknecht, Jr. (R) vs Tim Walz (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 6 OPEN: M. Bachmann (R) vs P. Wetterling (D) Weak GOP Hold
Nevada – CD 3 Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen (D) Porter +4.8
New Hamp – CD 2 Charles Bass (R)-inc vs Paul Hodes (D) Weak DEM Gain
New Mexico – CD 1 Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 19 Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs John Hall (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 20 John Sweeney (R)-inc vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 24 OPEN: R. Meier (R) vs M. Arcuri (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 25 James Walsh (R)-inc vs Dan Maffei (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 26 Thomas Reynolds (R)-inc vs Jack Davis (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 29 Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs Eric Massa (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 8 Robin Hayes (R)-inc vs Larry Kissell (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 11 Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 1 Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs John Cranley (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 2 Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs Wuslin (D) Weak GOP Hold
Ohio – CD 15 Deborah Pryce (R)-inc vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 18 OPEN: Joy Padgett (R) vs Zack Space (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 4 Melissa Hart (R)-inc vs Jason Altmire (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 6 Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 7 Curt Weldon (R)-inc vs Joseph Sestak (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 8 M. Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs P. Murphy (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 10 Don Sherwood (R)-inc vs Chris Carney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Texas – CD 22 OPEN: Sekula-Gibbs (R-WI) vs Lampson (D) Weak DEM Gain
Vermont – CD 1 OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville (R) Mod DEM Gain
Virginia CD-2 Thelma Drake (R)-inc vs Philip Kellam (D) Weak GOP Hold
Washington – CD 8 Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner (D) Weak GOP Hold
Wisconsin – CD 8 OPEN: John Gard (R) vs Steve Kagen (D) Weak DEM Gain
Wyoming – CD 1 Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs Gary Trauner (D) Weak GOP Hold
BOLD – party turnover

Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics House Summary chart is here.

    Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For Control
    Republican Seats
    Leans Dem (13)
    Toss Up (14)
    Leans GOP (21)
    Leans GOP (0)
    Toss Up (2)
    Leans Dem (4)




     

     

    The GOP House Debacle has arrived. Robert Novak has a conservative loss of 18 seats for the GOP. His analysis is here.

    The next Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-California).

    279034954 be8b57ca3f o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   House

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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    291047637 4e357fab81 o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   Senate

    Election Projection has final United States Senate Election 2006 Projections:

    291047638 49d2a0e43f o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   Senate

    Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
    Projected: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND
    DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1

    Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of six Senate seats and loss of GOP control of the Senate. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is election Projections summary of the race:

    Summary of Senate Races

    State Major Candidates Projected Result
    Arizona Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) Mod GOP Hold
    California Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Connecticut Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) Mod IND Gain
    Delaware Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Florida Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Hawaii Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Indiana Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) Strong GOP Hold
    Maine Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Maryland OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) Weak DEM Hold
    Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) Mod DEM Hold
    Minnesota OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Mississippi Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Montana Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Nebraska Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Nevada John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) Mod GOP Hold
    New Jersey Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) Weak DEM Hold
    New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) Strong DEM Hold
    New York Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) Strong DEM Hold
    North Dakota Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Ohio Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) Mod DEM Gain
    Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Mod DEM Gain
    Rhode Island L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Tennessee OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) Weak GOP Hold
    Texas Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Utah Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Vermont OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) Strong IND Hold
    Virginia George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Washington Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) Mod DEM Hold
    West Virginia Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Wyoming Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) Strong GOP Hold
    BOLD – party turnover

    Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics Senate Summary chart is here.

    Likely Dem
    Leans Dem
    Toss Up
    Leans GOP
    Likely GOP
    Arizona Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7% | Chart Kyl +8.6%
    Connecticut Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0% | Chart Lieberman +11.8%
    Maryland Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7% | Chart Cardin +3.7%
    Michigan Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3% | Chart Stabenow +14.5%
    Minnesota Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0% | Chart Klobuchar +15.3%
    Missouri Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5% | Chart McCaskill +3.2%
    Montana Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5% | Chart Tester +3.0%
    New Jersey Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2% | Chart Menendez +6.4%
    Ohio DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3% | Chart Brown +10.0%
    Pennsylvania Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3% | Chart Casey +11.5%
    Rhode Island Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7% | Chart Whitehouse +5.4%
    Tennessee Corker (R) 51.0% vs. Ford (D) 43.6% | Chart Corker +7.4%
    Virginia Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3% | Chart Webb +1.5%
    Washington McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8% | Chart Cantwell +13.3%

    The GOP Senate Debacle has arrived. One race change will make the result transfer to GOP control. Flap feels this most likely will occur in either Rhode Island or Montana.

    Stay tuned for House Projections which ARE even more bruising to the GOP later in the evening.

    279034954 be8b57ca3f o Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE   Senate

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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    google plus Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?linkedin Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?pinterest Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?stumbleupon Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?reader Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?printfriendly Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?email Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?share save 171 16 Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?

    290156772 9548d93112 o Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi   Just Afghanistan?

    LOOK WHERE AL QAEDA & CO. HAVE STRUCK SINCE 9/11

    THE woman who will become Speaker of the House, should Democrats pick up sufficient seats on Tuesday, believes passionately that the War on Terror is only the war in Afghanistan.

    Reality check: The map above shows a selection of the major, memorable terrorist attacks world-wide since Jan. 1, 2002, as well as indicating nations which the Rand Corp. Terrorism Database lists as hosting a significant al Qaeda presence.

    (Just a selection, of course – a map of attacks in Israel or Iraq could fill the whole page.)

    Only Afghanistan? It is staggering to think that anyone of such naivete could soon leading one house of Congress.

    Nancy Pelosi’s defenders will point out that she answering the question, “Do you not think that the war in Iraq now, today, is the War on Terror?”

    But her full answer was, “No. The War on Terror is the war in Afghanistan.”

    Mind-boggling. She doesn’t even deny that terrorists have flocked to Iraq, “but that doesn’t mean we stay there,” she says. “They’ll stay there as long as we’re there” – implying . . . what? That they’ll just retire if we go?

    True, some would leave – but only to do killing elsewhere. How many would come here?

    None of this is to defend every particular of Bush policies in Iraq – would that that were all that divided America’s two political parties.

    But it’s not. No, the overriding divide is that one party generally understands that America faces a determined and utterly ruthless enemy of global reach and ambition, an enemy that will keep on coming and keep on killing until it is stopped . . . and the other party just doesn’t want to think about it.

    Sure, there are exceptions – one honorable one is Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

    But he was rejected by his state party because of his firm stance in the War on Terror. He’s not the mainstream of the Democratic Party.

    Nancy Pelosi is.

    The political consensus is the GOP WILL lose majority control of the House. But, will the next Speaker of the House be Nancy Pelosi?

    Flap is not so sure. It depends upon the nature of the majority.

    But, then again, is the GOP in the midst of a “COMEBACK?”

    Stay tuned……


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    google plus John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry linkedin John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry pinterest John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry stumbleupon John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry reader John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry printfriendly John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry email John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry share save 171 16 John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry

    288779492 4a5a4bbf12 o John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry

    Blackfive: “We support those not as smart as John Kerry” – At the Army-Air Force Game

    Wow, who’d have thought that – “John Kerry bringing the armed services together…”

    But, what about the impact on the election?

    Previous:

    John Kerry Watch: I’m Sorry But…….

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry Makes Direct Apology to Troops

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry Apologizes for “Botched Joke”

    Michael Ramirez on John Kerry – Educate Yourselves or You’ll Get Stuck in Iraq

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry WARNS Students – Educate Yourselves or You’ll Get Stuck in Iraq

    286778272 5b4bf5cd4c o John Kerry Watch: We Support Those Not As Smart as John Kerry

    Photo Credit: J. Farmer


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    286763856 e77c82c2ba o John Kerry Watch: Im Sorry But.......

    John Kerry, Democratic congressional campaigner in the Fifth District, speaks at a news conference Sept. 18, 1972 in Boston. During the Vietnam era, Kerry opposed a volunteer Army because it would be dominated by the underprivileged, be less accountable and be more prone to “the perpetuation of war crimes.

    AP: Kerry’s ’72 Army Comments Mirror Latest

    During a Vietnam-era run for Congress three decades ago, John Kerry said he opposed a volunteer Army because it would be dominated by the underprivileged, be less accountable and be more prone to “the perpetuation of war crimes.”

    Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran who turned against the war, made the observations in answers to a 1972 candidate questionnaire from a Massachusetts peace group.

    Is Senator Kerry FLIPPIN’ again? Or?

    After Kerry caused a firestorm this week with what he termed a botched campaign joke that Republicans said insulted current soldiers, The Associated Press was alerted to the historical comments by a former law enforcement official who monitored 1970s anti-war activities

    Kerry apologized Wednesday for the 2006 campaign trail gaffe that some took as suggesting U.S. soldiers fighting in Iraq were undereducated. He contended the remark was aimed at Bush, not the soldiers.

    In 1972, as he ran for the House, he was less apologetic in his comments about the merits of a volunteer army. He declared in the questionnaire that he opposed the draft but considered a volunteer army “a greater anathema.”

    “I am convinced a volunteer army would be an army of the poor and the black and the brown,” Kerry wrote. “We must not repeat the travesty of the inequities present during Vietnam. I also fear having a professional army that views the perpetuation of war crimes as simply ‘doing its job.’

    “Equally as important, a volunteer army with our present constitutional crisis takes accountability away from the president and put the people further from control over military activities,” he wrote.

    So, did he make the statements about Iraq and the troops before he meant them?

    Or did Kerry BOTCH THE JOKE before he was AGAINST it?

    Or is it a HYPOCRITICAL APOLOGY?

    Allah has more: What the left really thinks about the military

    286763858 a80dc03e52 o John Kerry Watch: Im Sorry But.......

    Previous:

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry Makes Direct Apology to Troops

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry Apologizes for “Botched Joke”

    Michael Ramirez on John Kerry – Educate Yourselves or You’ll Get Stuck in Iraq

    John Kerry Watch: Kerry WARNS Students – Educate Yourselves or You’ll Get Stuck in Iraq

    286778272 5b4bf5cd4c o John Kerry Watch: Im Sorry But.......

    Photo Credit: J. Farmer


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