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Maybe, according to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

Senator Bill Nelson: 38% Vs. 34%

38% of voters approve of the job Nelson’s doing to 34% who disapprove. Those numbers sound uninspiring but the main reason for them is that only 55% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, where you’d usually expect someone to be in the 70-80% range within their own party. Nelson gets 74-80% of the Democratic vote against each of the Republicans we tested him against so this is a classic case where his base might not love him, but they’re still going to vote for him.

While Nelson doesn’t generate much enthusiasm from within his own party, he’s also not much of a turn off to Republicans. An unusually high 21% of them approve of the job he’s doing and he gets as much as 19% of the GOP vote in the head to heads against named Republicans.

Most of the time people focus on politicians’ approval number when analyzing their reelection chances and if you do that in Nelson’s case 38% doesn’t look so hot. I think it might be more instructive here though to look at Nelson’s disapproval number- is someone who only 34% of voters are unhappy with really going to get tossed out of office? Seems doubtful- certainly didn’t happen to any Senators or Governors last year.

Yes, but Nelson is still not viewed very favorably for an incumbent and that is a good sign for the GOP.

A bad sign for the Republicans though is that the candidates that poll the best against Nelson are not going to run.

Connie Mack IV, who announced he wouldn’t seek the office after we’d already started the poll, trailed Nelson by 13 points at 47-34. Another incredibly long shot candidate, MSNBC host and former Congressman Joe Scarborough, trails by 13 points as well at 45-32. Among the more plausible candidates former Senator George LeMieux does best but still trails by 15 points at 48-33. Mike Haridopolos and Adam Hasner trail by 16 points at 50-34 and 48-32 respectively, and Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales does the worst with a 19 point deficit at 47-28.

Head to Head:

• 50% Nelson (D), 34% Haridopolis (R)
• 48% Nelson (D), 32% Hasner (R)
• 48% Nelson (D), 33% LeMieux (R)
• 47% Nelson (D), 34% Mack (R)
• 45% Nelson (D), 32% Scarborough (R)
• 47% Nelson (D), 28% Wales (R)

Favorable Vs UnFavorable:

• Mike Haridopolis: 9 / 23
• Adam Hasner: 6 / 17
• George LeMieux: 8 / 22
• Connie Mack IV: 21 / 23
• Joe Scarborough: 15 / 20
• Jimmy Wales: 3 / 14

The GOP wants a pick-up in Florida. They just have to decide on a candidate and run him hard. Certainly, Nelson’s lack of favorability at this point smells like vulnerability but the NRSC and the Florida GOP have to understand that they will have to work hard to throw Nelson and hence Harry Reid out of office/majority.

Yes, according to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Sen. Debbie Stabenow -  46% Vs. 39% (41% vs. 40% in December)
• Terri Lynn Land – 37% Vs. 19%, GOP – 55% Vs. 7%
• Pete Hoekstra – 30% Vs. 28%, GOP – 52% Vs. 9%
• Saul Anuzis – only 20% know enough about for an opinion
• Randy Hekman – only 17% of voters claim an opinion

Head to Head:

• Stabenow – 48% Vs. Land – 38%
• Stabenow – 50% Vs. Hoekstra – 38%
• Stabenow – 52% Vs. Anuzis – 35%
• Stabenow – 52% Vs. Hekman – 33%

It looks like this Michigan Senate seat will not be in GOP cross-hairs in 2012. With a large 2012 African-American turnout to re-elect President Obama, the GOP will be faced with insurmountable Democratic registration numbers in this blue state.

For the past few election cycles, with a poor economic climate in Michigan and the loss of jobs, Republicans also hope for a pick-up of some sort.

Won’t happen in 2012.

The full poll is here.

Senator Claire McCaskill is just a big HYPOCRITE. And, she won’t be running THIS ad either.

More than six years ago, Claire McCaskill was embroiled in another fight over the political use of airplanes — except in that case, she was raising the issue against her opponent.

During the crescendo of her primary challenge to Gov. Bob Holden in July 2004, then-state auditor McCaskill ran an ad showing an airplane circling around the outline of Missouri, slamming the governor for “taking over 300 taxpayer funded trips on the state airplane.”

According to the Associated Press, McCaskill pointed to news accounts that reported Holden flying to events like the NCAA women’s basketball tournament in St. Louis and to a public speaking specialist in Kansas City as evidence as the “kind of things that make taxpayers raise their eyebrows.”

“I don’t believe you would see Gov. McCaskill getting on a plane and heading to ball games saying that’s official state business,” said McCaskill spokesman Glenn Campbell at the time.  (McCaskill went on to upend Holden in the primary, but lose to Gov. Matt Blunt in the general election.)

McCaskill revealed Monday she owed $287,273 in back taxes for her private plane, just days after POLITICO uncovered that the first-term Democrat billed taxpayers for a political trip.

I say put a fork in McCaskill – She’s Done.

Looks like a possible GOP pick-up according to the latest PPP poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

• Senator McCaskill 46% Vs. 45%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable

• Todd Akin 20% Vs. 24%
• Ed Martin 12% Vs. 22%
• Sarah Steelman 22% Vs. 22%
• Ann Wagner 8% Vs. 18%

Heads Up:

• McCaskill 45% Vs Akin 44%
• McCaskill 46% Vs. Martin 40%
• McCaskill 45% Vs. Steelman 42%
• McCaskill 45% Vs Wagner 36%

Missouri is the “Show Me” state with which the GOP wishes to recapture the U.S Senate majority. And, it would certainly be sweet to avenge Claire McCaskill’s bruising win six years ago when she shamelessly used Michael J Fox shaking and baking on “stem cell” televison commercials. Remember?

Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill is certainly vulnerable and is below the magical 50% in job approval.

PPP’s 2nd poll on the 2012 US Senate race in Missouri finds pretty much the same thing as the first one. Voters are closely divided on Claire McCaskill’s job performance and she polls in the mid-40s against all of her prospective Republican opponents. She does have small leads over them that are largely attributable to their lack of name recognition.

46% of Missouri voters approve of the job McCaskill is doing to 45% who disapprove. Her reviews are almost completely polarized along party lines with 85% of Democrats happy with the job she’s doing while 80% of Republicans give her poor marks. The thing of greatest concern for McCaskill should be where she stands with independents- just 36% think she’s doing a good job with 51% dissenting.

Unless the Republicans nominate a nut job as their candidate (which they won’t), this will be a close race leaning toward a GOP pick up.

The entire poll is here.