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According to the latest Gallup Poll.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.9% in mid-July, down 0.1 percentage points from June and May. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also declined 0.1 points, to 7.7% in mid-July.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted from June 15 to July 15, including interviews with more than 30,000 U.S. adults — 68.0% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

On both an unadjusted and an adjusted basis, the mid-July unemployment readings, if sustained the rest of the month, would be the lowest monthly rates since Gallup began tracking unemployment daily in January 2010. Gallup’s adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the downward seasonal adjustment of 0.2 points the BLS applied in July 2011. Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate for July 2011 was 8.8% and the adjusted rate was 8.6% — both substantially higher than they are now.

And, underemployment has decreased to the lowest levels since 2010.

So, what does this mean?

There has NOT been any dramatic improvement in the American unemployment rate for the past three months. Although the rate is a little better than last year, it is not good news for folks looking for a job or incumbent politicians


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The Friday jobs report is out and it is, well, not so good – especially for President Obama.

The U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate held steady at 8.2 percent, reflecting continued slow growth in the economy with the presidential election just four months away.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said private payrolls increased 84,000, while the government lost 4,000 jobs. Economists expected job growth of about 100,000 and the unemployment rate to be unchanged, though many had increased their forecasts based on some recent indicators.

With yet another month of weak employment growth, the second quarter marks the worst three-month period in two years. The period averaged just 75,000 per month, against 226,000 in the first quarter, which benefited from an unusually mild winter.

May’s weak initial 69,000 report was revised upward to 77,000, which made the June growth essentially the same. The April number was revised lower, from 77,000 to 68,000.

“What a disappointing number,” said Jeff Savage, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank. “This was kind of disastrous. We’re not even keeping up with demographics at this point. This is not going to be liked in the markets.”

The stock market, where futures had been essentially flat before the jobs number was released at 8:30 am ET, fell sharply, though that disappointment could be tempered by hopes of more stimulus from Washington.

With Mitt Romney falling in the polls lately, this should re-ignite his campaign and refocus his narrative on jobs and the economy.

President Obama may have won a victory when the Supreme Court ruled ObamaCare constitutional, but the economy is still not growing and the unemployment rate is high.


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Another decrease in the unemployment rate and this time to the magic Presidential re-election rate of 8.0%.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, dropped to 8.0% in May, a new low since Gallup began measuring employment in 2010, and more than a full percentage-point decline from May 2011. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted number for May is 8.3%, down from 8.6% in April. However, that remains higher than the seasonally adjusted low of 7.9% recorded in January 2012.

The unemployment rate is better, but the conventional wisdom is that the economy, if anything, is stagnant.

Tomorrow the U.S. government’s unemployment’s numbers will be out via the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Despite recent drops in unemployment reported by Gallup and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. employment situation remains fragile. Although Gallup’s unadjusted number is at a new two-year low, the adjusted number remains higher than January’s number, suggesting that the recent declines reported by the BLS may not continue. Further, many demographic groups, including young adults and minorities, continue to be burdened by unemployment rates that are significantly higher than the national average. Substantial improvements will need to be made before these groups feel relief.

Still, the situation is better than it was a year ago, and underemployed workers in the U.S. seem to sense positive momentum and are more optimistic about finding work than they were at the beginning of the year.


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According to the latest Gallup unemployment poll.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined slightly to 8.2% in mid-May from 8.3% in April. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.5% in mid-May, down slightly from 8.6% last month.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted over the 30 days of April 16 to May 15, including interviews with 30,236 U.S. adults, 67.5% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

On an unadjusted basis, the mid-May unemployment rate, if sustained the rest of the month, would represent a new monthly low in unemployment since Gallup began tracking it daily in January 2010, down from the previous low of 8.3% recorded last month and from 9.2% last May.

Incorporating the upward seasonal adjustment of 0.3 percentage points that the BLS applied last May yields a seasonally adjusted rate for mid-May of 8.5%. This is substantially higher than the seasonally adjusted monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate in January of this year, but significantly lower than the 9.5% in May 2011.

Nothing earth shattering here with the unemployment rate.

A big drop is what the Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign wants, but I do not think this will happen anytime soon.

Underemployment is also down slightly.

Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 18.0% in mid-May, compared with 18.2% in April. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July but changed direction in August. It increased to 19.1% in February before plunging to 18.0% in March and 18.2% last month.

So, what this mean?

There is slow American economic growth and American businesses may be holding back because of either the upcoming election or the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare.

Also, in a warning sign for the government, unemployment numbers may have improved a little, simply due to the fact that long term unemployed people have stopped looking for work.

Moreover, there is also considerable variance of Gallup’s unemployment numbers and those released by the Obama Administration. Go figure.

Gallup’s unemployment measurements now and in April stand in sharp contrast to those the government provided. The BLS reported an April unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.7% and an adjusted unemployment rate of 8.1%. These findings were generally seen as inconsistent with the state of the economy and the findings of the BLS payroll survey. There were not enough jobs created last month — even after the size of the workforce declined — to lower the unemployment rate as much as the government reported.

It is possible that the government’s unemployment numbers for May could revert back to the Gallup trend, as occurred in March and during much of late 2011. Still, there was a considerable gap between Gallup’s results and those of the government in February and April. Regardless, Gallup’s preliminary unemployment numbers for May, based on continuous daily measurement, show a slight improvement compared with April.


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