• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 13th on 18:19

    These are my links for March 13th from 18:19 to 18:24:

    • President 2012: Going Rogue on Ailes Could Leave Palin on Thin Ice – Before Sarah Palin posted her infamous “Blood Libel” video on Facebook on January 12, she placed a call to Fox News chairman Roger Ailes. In the wake of the Tucson massacre, Palin was fuming that the media was blaming her heated rhetoric for the actions of a madman that left six people dead and thirteen others injured, including Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.

      Palin told Ailes she wanted to respond, according to a person with knowledge of the call. It wasn’t fair the media was making this about her. Ailes told Palin that she should stay quiet.

      “Lie low,” he said. “There’s no need to inject yourself into the story.”

      Palin told Ailes that other people had given her that same advice. Her lawyer Bob Barnett is said to have cautioned her about getting involved. The consensus in some corners of Palin's camp was that she faced considerable risks if she spoke out.

      But, this being Sarah Palin, she did it anyway.

      Ailes was not pleased with her decision, which turned out to be a political debacle for Palin, especially her use of the historically loaded term "blood libel" to describe the actions of the media. “The Tucson thing was horrible,” said a person familiar with Ailes’s thinking. "Before she responded, she was making herself look like a victim. She was winning. She went out and did the blood libel thing, and Roger is thinking, 'Why did you call me for advice?'”

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      Sarah Palin sealed her 'not ready for prime time run" fate with her Tucson "Blood Libel" Debacle.

      Since then her polling has been even worse.

    • California Census data mean big changes in legislative/cogressional districts – When the Census Bureau released details of the 2010 census in California, therefore, political bean counters immediately massaged the data to calculate which Assembly, Senate and congressional districts must be changed dramatically to equalize their populations.

      The detailed over/under data on the 120 legislative and 53 congressional districts confirm what the gross census numbers implied – that there must be a major shift of seats from Democratic-voting coastal areas, such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County, to the more conservative-leaning interior counties.

      A decade ago, for instance, 40 state Senate districts were equalized at about 850,000 constituents each. The 2011 census told us that they now should be about 931,000 because the state's population increased by 10 percent. In fact, however, those districts now range from 87,615 persons under that number (Senate District 22, represented by Sen. Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles) to 284,527 over (SD 37, held by Sen. Bill Emmerson, R-Hemet).

      De León's and Emmerson's numbers reflect the startlingly small growth recorded for Los Angeles County, just 3.1 percent in 10 years, and the explosive, 30 percent growth in adjacent Riverside and San Bernardino counties. And it may indicate that, as many demographers suspect, the census missed many Los Angeles residents, especially illegal immigrants.

      But the census, accurate or not, is official and the huge urban-suburban disparity – also evident in Assembly and congressional district numbers – means that the redistricting commission, if it does its job well, will be making immense changes in the state's political maps.

      It will shift districts from slow-growing coastal urban areas to fast-growing interior counties, opening opportunities for some politicians while discomfiting others.

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      It will hurt Democratic incumbents in the California Legislature as they all try to shift due to term limits.

      But, GOP Congressional members may be in more jeopardy.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 13th on 17:25

    These are my links for March 13th from 17:25 to 17:33:

    • California Redistricting and the 2010 Census – Musical chairs in Congress – California's addition of 3.4 million residents over the past decade allowed it to keep its 53 congressional seats – but the more dramatic population shifts within the state all but guarantee that some comfortable incumbents are going to be out of office in two years.

      And at least one of those out-of-luck members of Congress is likely to come from the Bay Area.

      Tony Quinn, one of the state's pre-eminent analysts of politics and demographics, said it is hard to look at the numbers in official U.S. Census data released last week and not conclude that the Bay Area will lose a House seat through redistricting. Population has remained fairly flat in the Bay Area, while rising sharply in once-rural areas to the east – a pattern that is replicated in Los Angeles and the Inland Empire.

      "The loss of one (Bay Area) congressional incumbent seems likely," he said.

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      The Dems will start eating their young soon in the Bay Area.

      With the new top two electoral system and geographically based legislative and congressional districts, there will be political upheal for both Dems and the GOP. Look for many incumbent retirements or forced relocations.

    • President 2012: What We Learned: Here Comes The Mitch – Daniels That Is – Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is sounding more serious about a presidential campaign, and his "Meet The Press" appearance Sunday will give a telling hint of his intentions. And with a recent NBC/WSJ poll showing two-thirds of GOP primary voters more likely to back a candidate who puts more focus on the economy/deficit than gay marriage/abortion, his "social truce" isn't as unpopular with the base as the CW has suggested.

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      I think ultimatley Mitch Daniels WILL run for the Presidency.

      To be honest, he knows the field is weak.

    • IN-Sen: Could Republicans Lose Major Party Status in Indiana? – WISH-TV reports a Democratic lawsuit challenges Secretary of State Charlie White's (R) status "on the ballot last November because his voter registration was allegedly false (a contention backed up by grand jury indictments.) If a judge rules in the Democrats' favor and White is disqualified, the Republicans would not receive the 10% of the vote in the Secretary of State race that is required to maintain major party status."

      Possible ramifications: "The lack of major party status would make the 2012 Senate race a convention battle rather than a primary for the GOP. Richard Mourdock's chances of upsetting Richard Lugar would be greatly enhanced in a convention."

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      Sen. Richard Lugar would be toast and I doubt he wuuld run for re-election.

      I doubt he runs anyway.