These are my links/comments for October 30th through October 31st:

• When is Elton’s deadline?– The afternoon of March 10, 2006, was one of the most chaotic ever seen in the office of the Ventura County Elections Division. Earlier that day, Rep. Elton Gallegly had visited former Ventura County Star Editor Joe Howry and dropped this bombshell: He intended to retire.The deadline to file declarations of candidacy for the office was 5 p.m., and Gallegly’s announcement set off a wild scramble. Former Assemblywoman Audra Strickland was at the counter asking about candidacy forms, first for her husband, Tony, and then for herself.

  When the dust had settled, none of it mattered. All three politicians had already filed declarations of candidacy — Gallegly for Congress, Audra Strickland for Assembly and Tony Strickland for controller — and as all three found out, those declarations, once submitted, cannot be withdrawn.

  Gallegly, after receiving medical assurances that the health issue that prompted his aborted retirement was not serious, changed his mind, ran after all, and easily won re-election. The incident, however, prompted a change in elections law. The following year the Legislature passed a bill — known in some quarters as “Elton’s Law” — that added Congress to the list of offices for which an automatic filing extension is granted if a “qualified incumbent” does not file for re-election. The law is designed to prevent shananigans that would allow an incumbent to secretly decide to retire then hand-pick a successor who could file at the last minute, shutting out any other potential challengers.

  Fast forward to 2011, and Gallegly once again is being coy about his intentions. It is highly unlikely that anything resembling 2006 will happen again. After all, there are still more than four months before the filing period closes at 5 p.m. on March 9 … or does it?

  Given that Gallegly lives just outside the boundary of the new 26th Congressional District, is he an “eligible incumbent”? And if he chose not to file, would the deadline be extended?

  Timm, Gallegly is running for re-election. It doesn’t make any difference when he files.

• President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 46% Vs. Obama 42%– Barack Obama carried Wisconsin easily in the 2008 presidential election, but he is slightly behind Texas Governor Rick Perry and runs just ahead of two other top Republican hopefuls in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2012 look at the Badger State.Perry earns 46% support from Likely Wisconsin Voters to Obama’s 42% in a new statewide telephone survey. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

  The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on October 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

  And, a non-battleground state. Obama is in trouble.

• Romney Taps Bush’s Network– The Wall Street Journal reports that Mitt Romney has picked up more of President George W. Bush’s top fundraisers than any other candidate in the Republican presidential race, and has even “won over twice as many of the Bush backers as Texas Gov. Rick Perry,” who served as Bush’s Lieutenant Governor in Texas.”Winning the support of Mr. Bush’s network would be a coup given that the former president’s fund-raising operation was among the best in recent Republican campaigns. He invented the modern system of relying on a group of ‘bundlers’ who could generate huge sums by soliciting donations from colleagues, friends and associates… Of the roughly 550 people who raised at least $100,000 for Mr. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, about 400 have yet to make a campaign donation to any of the Republicans running for president.”

  The major donors don’t believe Rick Perry can win…

• MF Global Files for Bankruptcy Protection– MF Global Holdings Ltd., the holding company for the broker-dealer run by former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-chairman Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt.The New York-based firm listed total debt of $39.7 billion and assets of $41 billion in Chapter 11 papers filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Its finance unit, MF Global Finance USA Inc., also filed, with debt of as much as $50 million and assets of as much as $500 million.

  “The boards of directors of both entities authorized the filing of the Chapter 11 petition in order to protect their assets,” the companies said today in a statement.

  MF Global’s board had met through the weekend in New York to consider options including a sale to avert failure, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Following a record loss, MF Global was suspended today from doing new business with the New York Federal Reserve, according to a statement on the regulator’s website. Trading in MF Global’s stock was also halted.

  No Secretary of the Treasury for Jon Corzine….

• Herman Cain already unpopular with female voters– Even before allegations of sexual harassment against Herman Cain surfaced, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO polled poorly with female voters. The numbers suggest that compared with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney , Cain is in big trouble with this demographic.In four early primary states, according to recent CNN polls,Romney significantly outperformed Cain with female Republicans in every contest save South Carolina. In Iowa, where the two contenders are statistically tied, Romney took 28 percent of female voters and Cain got 17.

  Politico reported Sunday that Cain was accused of sexual harassment by two former employees at the National Restaurant Association, which he led in the 1990s, and that the women left with financial settlements. Cain told Fox News Monday that he “never sexually harassed anyone” and “was falsely accused.”

  If even more women turn against Cain, it could give Romney — who already does better with female than male voters — the chance to pull ahead in the GOP presidential primary.

  The Des Moines Register wrote Sunday that in the new Iowa poll that showed Cain and Romney neck-and-neck, men were behind Cain’s success — 26 percent prefer him while only 18 percent backed Romney. The numbers were almost exactly the reverse for Romney with female respondents — the former governor beat Cain 27 to 17 percent.

  Not really a surprise.

• Is Cain’s denial plausible?– Herman Cain told Fox News that he never sexually harassed anyone, although he was falsely accused of such at the National Restaurant Association. He then declared: “If the restaurant association did a settlement, I wasn’t even aware of it and I hope it wasn’t for much. If there was a settlement, it was handled by some of the other officers at the restaurant association.”For that to be true, many things would also have to be true:
  1. Herman Cain never asked the NRA how the claim got resolved;
  2. Cain never had to sign a settlement agreement or any other document;
  3. He trusted the NRA to obtain a complete release on his behalf, and the women never demanded that Cain release potential counterclaims (e.g., for defamation);
  4. He never agreed to keep the matter confidential — for example, after he left the NRA. (Arguably the association could bind him while he was still employed, but wouldn’t it have had to tell him to ensure compliance?); and
  5. In his role as CEO, Cain never had to approve a settlement, was never told the cost of the settlement and never saw a budget entry confirming a settlement.

  Probably not…..

• My morning with Herman Cain « The Enterprise Blog – RT @JimPethokoukis: My morning with Herman Cain at AEI
• President 2012: Herman Cain Says He Was Falsely Accused of Sexual Harassment | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Herman Cain Says he was FALSELY ACCUSED of Sexual Harassment – not aware of settlements:
• Dilbert October 30, 2011 – Ignorance on Display » Flap’s California Blog – Scott Adams and Dilbert discover digital media curation…..
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• What Happens to Cain and the GOP Field? – What Happens to Cain and the GOP Field?
• President 2012: The Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Flap: Can Cain Survive? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – A round-up of the Herman Cain alleged sexual harassment Flap….:
• @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-31 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-31 #tcot #catcot
• AEI – 9-9-9: A Discussion with Herman Cain – >Should be a feeding frenzy by media RT @JimPethokoukis: Herman Cain at AEI, tomorrow, 9 AM EST, LIVE STREAMED, BABY!
• Cain responds to sex harassment allegation | Campaign 2012 – Cain responds to sex harassment allegation #fb #tcot
• Exclusive: 2 women accused Herman Cain of inappropriate behavior – Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman and Anna Palmer and Kenneth P. Vogel – POLITICO.com – > The Beginning of the end? Two women accused Herman Cain of inappropriate behavior #fb
• Michael Ramirez Cartoon – Michael Ramirez on the leaving of Iraq…..:
• The Sunday Flap: October 30, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Sunday Flap: Today’s Political Headlines: