• Dean Heller,  Shelley Berkley

    NV-Sen: Dean Heller 45% Vs. Shelley Berkley 45%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    After trailing by as much as 13 points earlier this year, Shelley Berkley has moved into a tie with Dean Heller in the Nevada Senate race at 45%.

    On PPP’s last poll, in late July, Heller had led 46-43. The main thing that’s happened since then is Berkley has consolidated the Democratic vote. Previously she was getting just 75% of the vote from within her own party, but that’s now up to 82%, pretty comparable to Heller’s 83% of the Republican vote. On all 3 previous PPP surveys of the race this year, all of which Heller had held the lead on, he was getting a much larger share of the GOP vote than Berkley was getting of the Democratic vote. With that gap erased, so is his lead.

    When you dig deeper into the numbers on this poll you really see the makings of a race that could be a toss up all the way through next November.  Heller’s approval rating is a 39/35 spread. Berkley’s favorability rating is a 38/35 spread. In addition to both candidates getting nearly identical shares of the vote from their parties, independents split nearly evenly as well with Heller holding a 39-37 advantage. Berkley has a 52-38 advantage with women. Heller has a 52-38 advantage with men.

    This is a race like the ones in Virginia and Montana that starts out as a toss up and seems like it probably won’t see a ton of movement over the next year- most voters have already chosen a side and the candidates will be fighting it out for a relatively small pool of persuadable voters. It seems likely that if Obama wins reelection he’ll bring the Democratic Senate candidates in these states along with him, and if he doesn’t, he’ll probably bring them down with him as well.

    Nevada will be a key battleground state in the Presidential race next year. With few media markets and inexpensive ones at that, I would hate to be a Nevada television addict beginning in the Spring. The TV ads are going to fly for Obama and Berkely.

    But, Senator and former Rep. Dean Heller is NOT Sharron Angle.

    This race, as with the Presidential vote may be close. If the economy stays moribund, Obama loses to Romney and Heller is elected.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Dean Heller,  Shelley Berkley,  U.S. Senate 2012

    NV-Sen: Dean Heller 48% Vs. Shelly Barkley 42%

    According to the latest Public Opinion Strategies (R) Poll.

    A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll in Nevada shows Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) leading Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 48% to 42%.

    The poll is here.

    According to Nevada political reporter extraordinaire John Ralston
    , Heller is head in Washoe County by 17 points and also ahead with independents (2 to 1).

  • Dean Heller,  Shelley Berkley

    NV-Sen Poll Watch: Dean Heller 47% (R) Vs. Shelley Berkley 43% (D)

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Shelley Berkley – 34% Vs. 31%
    • Dean Heller – 43% Vs. 29%

    Head to Head:

    Dean Heller – 47% Vs. Shelley Berkley – 43%

    With the precipitous resignation of GOP Senator John Ensign, Republican Governor Brian Sandoval will likely appoint GOP Rep. Dean Heller to the position. But, the seat becomes available in November 2012 and Heller’s apparent opponent will be Democrat Rep. Shelley Berkley, who represents the Las Vegas area of the state.

    This will be a hard fought contest with the Casino unions going all out to re-claim this seat from the GOP.

    However, Rep. Heller is a popular and well-known POL who will be the incumbent.